potato fan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2018
There’s been a lot of increasing radio silence from the Russian SIMPs compared to several months back.
that vid of two rus soldiers getting drone bombed while fagging it out buck broke them
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There’s been a lot of increasing radio silence from the Russian SIMPs compared to several months back.
I have been called too optimistic about this conflict from day one, and the Ukrainians have surpassed even my expectations - I was expecting a grinding push forward not these sorts of Russian collapses.Too optimistic, you won't find many wars that end well with maximalist aims on both sides. Especially when it's literally illegal to negotiate with your enemy. (and your allies will shut down any negotiations) Even then, there's no guarantee that Putin's successor could be better than him or that Russia could surrender so it's at best a shot in the dark.
Footage of Russian armor surrendering to Ukrainian troops. Something notable about the footage is just how well equipped the Ukies are now. I know its fun to pick on the Germans for only sending helmets but I imagine there are a great many Mobiks who would kill for a helmet
that vid of two rus soldiers getting drone bombed while fagging it out buck broke them
Mea culpa, I was wrong and the hoholophiles and Americaposters were right and Russia can't win in the SMO 200k format. Failing to bomb infrastructure when they had the chance, insufficient manpower and delaying for months on end on mobilizing when that came through were mistakes. Would it have been different if they had done this and if the Ukraine hadn't gotten 90 billion in tech, and all but open Western intel and on the ground support? Sure, but that's cope. It was the job of the Russky intelligence services to take it into account, they didn't, and whining about how you could've done it if the enemy wasn't themselves but someone else is retarded.
....
Ukraine had in place the means of mobilising it's nation, has assistance from outside - they had been planning for this very eventuality - and their initial mobilisation was still a shit show because it is a gargantuan task and a bureaucratic nightmare at the best of times, never mind during a full scale invasion. Yet, prior planning, a motivated populace and outside assistance and time made it work.That said, I am completely convinced that the Ukraine can't win a long-term war and that the only way the Russians lose is if they're demoralized enough into quitting soon. The 1 million man hohol recruitment drive, posting demoralized complaining recruits and the always delayed Kherson Counteroffensive were jokes all the way up until they weren't. Ukraine was able to do this despite losing 7 million people as refugees and a completely collapsing economy and are currently reaping the dividends of it. The Russians on the other hand have their Telegram people hanging themselves over 'overwhelming forces' of 100 armored vehicles and 6k dudes on one front. Russia has 5 times the manpower to draw from and the worth of a conscript army is pretty undeniable at this point. By contrast, Western media is already complaining about how they're running out of shit to send. The manpower and long-term materiel advantage is too large to overcome provided they don't quit.
I didn't say it was an escalation to the situation - that's verbal nonsense and meaningless terminology that only serves to fit your extremely narrow definition of escalation. I said it's an escalation by "The West" on Russia specifically because "The West" went from "uninvolved" to "involved".With the caveat that the means used by those intervening do not extend beyond that of the invader, then that is a fair statement of my point. It's not an escalation, because the situation was already escalated by the aggressor to it's current state.
You're conflating "justification" with "escalation". Again.It's funny that you're saying it's not how international politics works, because it absolutely is - nations have a right to self defense, collective defense and the right to defend other nations from aggression in accordance with the UN Charter. The fact Ukraine isn't NATO isn't actually relevant.
The point about fighting age males and demographics are a joke in light of the state of Ukrainian demographics. Ukraine has an on paper population of 44mil, but between the 6 odd million in the parts of the liberal oblasts and the 7 million refugees by the UN we're talking about somewhere close to 30mil. The age pyramids of Russia and Ukraine are identical and the TFR of both are <1.5 with Ukraine's even being lower. Taking the absolute highest statistic thus far given, which is 260k, pretending for a moment that all are of military men and increasing it ten fold to 2.6mil would still leave a possible recruitable population of 20~ million in the ranges of 18 to 39.....
TL;DR Long Term favours Ukraine. Fair play for admitting you were wrong, but maybe listen to the people who've called this right from the start instead of just assuming big country holds the cards. It doesn't, Russia is fucked.
no thy didn't, they were badly led and equipped, the japanese had them outclassed to an extreme degree in both technology and military organisation.They did a damn fine job during WWII, though.
Why do you guys cry about the US killing brown people in durka durka countries, but applaud Russia killing white people in Europe? I agree the wars in the middle east were stupid and achieved nothing, but tbh I don't give a shit about the middle east. I wish we could build a wall around them and let them fight each other.I understand you are very low iq turkroach scum, you can't help being all fucking retarded. The US lost, and lost big. All they "won" was killing the shit out of tons of brown people. If that was your goal, great job. Well over a trillion dollars to kill a few hundred thousand sand niggers. Not like there are billions more.
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Accepting the statistics, I think the conclusion you've drawn is wrong. Ukraine has mobilised about 1 million in six months, it has the infrastructure and the willpower. Russia has neither, it has more people sure but civilians with weapons aren't much use unless they're fighting locally and using guerilla tactics. Putting them in the line, or for anything but menial duties is going to achieve zilch. It's not that Russia can't turn it around, but this would take years and they don't have years. So realising their potential is outside the scope of the conflict.The point about fighting age males and demographics are a joke in light of the state of Ukrainian demographics. Ukraine has an on paper population of 44mil, but between the 6 odd million in the parts of the liberal oblasts and the 7 million refugees by the UN we're talking about somewhere close to 30mil. The age pyramids of Russia and Ukraine are identical and the TFR of both are <1.5 with Ukraine's even being lower. Taking the absolute highest statistic thus far given, which is 260k, pretending for a moment that all are of military men and increasing it ten fold to 2.6mil would still leave a possible recruitable population of 20~ million in the ranges of 18 to 39.
Ukraine's mobilization was a shitshow, but it also had 8 years of actual direct military experience to smooth out the process while the Russian system is anything but, as it hasn't dusted this off. This is a structural problem, not one of capacity. Russia can fix it, but not in any particularly fast pace, which makes not just the above absolute numbers but the 2mil reservist numbers functionally dubious in the short to medium term. Manpower is manpower though and at present Russia has used a fraction of it. 'nam saw a total of 2.5mil American soldiers pass through before they called it quits, with a top of 400-500k at one time, without factoring in the South Vietnamese. An overall Russian defeat because ground is lost with 150k contract soldiers is an indictment of the contract soldiers against a numerically superior foe with a much larger temporary warchest, it says nothing about the overall supply of the state.
Chinese exports to Russia have fallen. They are not able to buy the parts they need from China. Given prior sanctions, if their needs could be covered by China which didn't sanction Russia they already would of went there. They didn't because the supply doesn't exist. Europe is suffering sure, but muh high ruble covers the fact that Russia is unable to get basic inputs for many of its industrial sectors, especially high end ones. So no, Russia production which is already on its arse will remain there. We have already seen parts of Lada trucks replaced with things being bolted into blocks of fucking wood. Wow, clearly the Russian economy is holding up better than Europes... We're talking a collapse in May to 3.3% in their automotive industry to just 3.3% of what they produced the prior year because they could not get hold of the parts from other nations. It's hard to see how this is replicated across other industries because the Kremlin isn't showing people the statistics - but the Yale study looking at alternative sources shows an economy well and truly on the ropes.The materiel point is even more dubious. Europe has been stripped down to the bone in terms of available stocks and even the US will take 2 odd years to produce those 18 extra HiMars it promised. But where Russia can buy the materials it doesn't already have from China to produce, Ukraine has no native production to speak of, Europe is beat to a pulp economically and while the US can ramp up production even the most charitable time gives it 2 years before it can do so. It also preassumes a lasting political will to go on what is effectively war footing production-wise in order to support a proxy war. Even assuming Russia doesn't extend its cooperation in the waging of the war past just Iranian drones to buying weaponry from China et al, who've a vested interest in seeing it win so the US's next focus isn't on them, what we have on Russia's stocks in a larger war scenario is speculation, whereas with Europe and Ukraine we've much clearer estimates.
The only times I was wrong was overestimating the Russians. The point I made was consistently that Russia couldn't maintain what it was doing, was taking unsustainable losses and that it was overstretched. As a result, Ukrainian combat power was increasing relative to Russia. This is what has happened, and continues to, and when I continue to be right and Russia is soundly defeat you'll come back and tell me I was wrong about everything that didn't matter - but I was right about the one thing that did. Which is Russia is losing, and will continue to lose. I look forward to your second Mae culpa.The point I'm conceding is the general assessment of the SMO being bound for failure in its until recent format given the degree of Ukrainian support and mobilization, not a concession to their points at large. Hohol triumphalists have gone on about everything from Mariupol to Lysychansk to their past months of throwing people over at a single spot in Kherson to be shot as being successes in the making. When you're wrong nine times out of ten, but hit it big the tenth time, you were still wrong before. The people running this proxy war ran away from Afghanistan after 20 years, lost in their Syria coup attempt and are en route to turning Iraq into an Iranian satellite while driving their own economies into the ground. They didn't become political or military genuises overnight because their gambit paid off at present and shouldn't be extended the benefit of the doubt over basic heuristics of population size, army stocks and production.
The point about willpower is relative - a sixth of Ukraine's population has fled. It's logistical infrastructure that Ukraine has on account of 8 years of preparing for war footing and a state of mobilization from the very start of the war. Russia doesn't, but there's no meaningful difference in the quality of the manpower brought out and even a comparative outflow of human capital to what Ukraine already went through would leave it with far more to work with. Time is the object, much like just how poor the current mobilization system is. Because it has far more people, Russia doesn't need parity efficiency-wise in mobilizing and arming them, it only needs to be better. The morale question is less about not having people and far more about public and leadership willingness to take on the costs of a protracted war on the scale required in the faces of the losses to come.Accepting the statistics, I think the conclusion you've drawn is wrong. Ukraine has mobilised about 1 million in six months, it has the infrastructure and the willpower. Russia has neither, it has more people sure but civilians with weapons aren't much use unless they're fighting locally and using guerilla tactics. Putting them in the line, or for anything but menial duties is going to achieve zilch. It's not that Russia can't turn it around, but this would take years and they don't have years. So realising their potential is outside the scope of the conflict.
Russia's losses are unsustainable in a limited scenario of 200k~ troops opposite 3-4 times more troops, with no war footing to speak of. Commentators, from tard appreciation forum spergs like me down to the CIA claiming Kiev would fall in 3 days and most importantly the Russians themselves overestimated the extent to which there was an armament or doctrine advantage on the Russian end that'd compensate for the massive difference in numbers, and the Russians then doubled by only attacking vital infrastructure half-heartedly 8 months in. Math won out. That same math points overwhelmingly in the opposite direction if Russia mobilizes to a similar extent to Ukraine. The question is only if the Russians are willing to do it and if the intangibles like morale and a Ukrainian doctrinal edge will trump math where it didn't for Russia. I see zero reason why it would and remain bullish on an eventual Russian victory, and will either smugpost or own up accordingly when we cross that bridge.The only times I was wrong was overestimating the Russians. The point I made was consistently that Russia couldn't maintain what it was doing, was taking unsustainable losses and that it was overstretched. As a result, Ukrainian combat power was increasing relative to Russia. This is what has happened, and continues to, and when I continue to be right and Russia is soundly defeat you'll come back and tell me I was wrong about everything that didn't matter - but I was right about the one thing that did. Which is Russia is losing, and will continue to lose. I look forward to your second Mae culpa.
Why do you guys cry about the US killing brown people in durka durka countries, but applaud Russia killing white people in Europe? I agree the wars in the middle east were stupid and achieved nothing, but tbh I don't give a shit about the middle east. I wish we could build a wall around them and let them fight each other.
Also I'm sick of people saying the US fucked up in Iraq/Afghanistan, therefore Russia is justified in bombing Ukrainians. It's fucked up what they are doing right now.
They fought like mad because they were invaded by an enemy that wanted to create lebensraum out of their Motherland and genocide the Slavs, you numb nut.If US ground troops are indeed in the Ukraine, they got a fighting chance.
But I also recall a man greater than Biden, who had his troops at Stalingrad. He still lost, and he went farther and was a righteous hero.
And that man was Adolf Hitler. And Stalin didn't have nukes yet.
Neither are the lolis you jerk off toUkranians aren't white. They are (((white))), and thus if they are to dissapear, well... no big loss.
They fought like mad because they were invaded by an enemy that wanted to create lebensraum out of their Motherland and genocide the Slavs, you numb nut.
Getting invaded and genocided is obviously not the same thing as cynically invading others for gibs.
Neither are the lolis you jerk off to
I don't even know wtf that is, you weeb.As a lover of oppai, I find lolis worthless you uncultured mutt. Get it right!