There is a Dark Age coming - ...and I feeeel fiiiine :)

[lolcow yoghurt]

Ted was right.

 

[Cedric_Eff]

As long as there’s no asteroid to worry or anything else, Humanity and Earth finds a way and life goes on. Life was obliterated multiple times in the past and it bounced back.

 

[Dysnomia]

Throw down puzzle pieces if you want, I just feel like being a little pedantic:

The "Dark Ages" refer to a time which had remarkably little recorded history. It has nothing to do with societal collapse or growth. It's literally a period of time in which historians are 'in the dark' as to what was going on. Hence the name.

Shh.... That's not the popular definition.

Honestly, I'm not a doomer. I think we're just in a bad time. But it's not even anything close to the worst times in recorded history.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

I don't think it will last in a societal collapse. What you describe is a zombified envy fueled version of the Western liberal civic nationalism that believes we all are (should be made) "equal". This kind of bullshit can only persist (and keep growing) while there is still a materially abundant system underneath that can support it.

I don't know about that. Christianity is the most successful religion in history, and it's based on the idea everyone is equal before God and by worshipping his son Jesus can all go to heaven. Obviously Christianity didn't actually result in equality, but that was the goal.

Now imagine if a religion existed saying that modern social justice is correct and the only reason it failed is that we did not live by its codes and let the forces of the three Great Satans (Hitler, Putin, and Trump) destroy it? And this religion acted like a religion and the "community centers" (temples) worshipping George Floyd would use some of the money donated to them to feed the poor in exchange for attending a seminar? It wouldn't matter that Floyd was just a career criminal who OD'd at precisely the right time, or that Hitler, Putin, and Trump were just politicians who did some bad things here and there, just like it doesn't matter who the people in the Bible really were or that when the Quran talks about a great Muslim named Dhul-Qarnayn who is literally just a mythologized version of Alexander the Great.

 

[CheepMeds]

I don't know about that. Christianity is the most successful religion in history, and it's based on the idea everyone is equal before God and by worshipping his son Jesus can all go to heaven. Obviously Christianity didn't actually result in equality, but that was the goal.

Now imagine if a religion existed saying that modern social justice is correct and the only reason it failed is that we did not live by its codes and let the forces of the three Great Satans (Hitler, Putin, and Trump) destroy it? And this religion acted like a religion and the "community centers" (temples) worshipping George Floyd would use some of the money donated to them to feed the poor in exchange for attending a seminar? It wouldn't matter that Floyd was just a career criminal who OD'd at precisely the right time, or that Hitler, Putin, and Trump were just politicians who did some bad things here and there, just like it doesn't matter who the people in the Bible really were or that when the Quran talks about a great Muslim named Dhul-Qarnayn who is literally just a mythologized version of Alexander the Great.

Now that I think about it. I'm coming to agree that at least just as symbols "St. George" and "Hitler/Putin/Trump" could survive as smaller elements in a larger evolved more established mythos among left-wing circles.
I made a big post about eco-activists making a similar point. Maybe they will develop a self sustaining mythos that will be a mixed residue of Social Justice/Eco-activism/established religious myths.
However, as Social Justice mythos stands now, it's secular (even anti-theistic at parts) and by lacking any supernatural elements I don't see people holding on to it if push comes to shove in the extreme bottleneck environment that will come form a societal collapse.

Here is what I think is a good example of the thinking that might form this new "left wing mythos"

 

[Shadfan666xxx000]

While I do agree that humanity is on a downswing right now, I'm going to posit that we're most likely not going to end up in a dark age on the level of subroman Europe or the bronze age. As we all know, the fall of the Roman empire and the bronze age collapse were precipitated by population decline, cultural collapse and economic devastation. These are all issues that we see today and are highly aware of right now. However, the current state of affairs and the foreseeable future don't bear out a total regression for humanity on that level for multiple reasons. Currently, even with our infrastructure as stretched and decayed as it is, it's still more than serviceable enough and is definitely advanced enough to maintain cohesion. Beyond even simple transportation infrastructure, we have telephone lines, cell towers, internet access, satellites and power lines. These structures compound each other to form a much more robust and effective means of connecting the world than the Romans and the bronze age civilizations ever had as while they relied chiefly on manpower and the assurance of safety to persons traveling within their confines, a simple text message or the maintenance of a server requires simply the technician being assigned at their post to perform maintenance near their home station, which is unlikely to come under assault outside of an all out war due to their usefulness while a courier may very well be robbed and stripped of their possessions. Couple this with the invention of the internet and the ability to store an entire library into an Hard drive and the preservation and conveyance of information will be preserved for far longer, thus staving off a total collapse.
We must also remember that we also have a population that is largely literate and isn't reliant on a scribe caste like the romans and especially the bronze age civilizations. The average citizen can act least sign their name and the invention of the printing press means that even with the loss of the technologies I just mentioned, it will likely be possible for humanity to rebuild itself through its accumulated knowledge fairly quickly and it wouldn't take even a century for us to reindustrialize. Indeed, to get to the point where we did use printing presses would require a massive die off of the productive sectors of society in such a sudden and shocking manner that one could suspect nuclear warfare was involved. Either way, the key defining features of bronze age civilization at least aren't under threat.
What, I suppose will happen is therefore not a slide into a complete civilizational collapse but a situation similar to the transition from the high middle ages to the late middle ages. We may very well have massive plagues and wars and population shrinkage but the global state of affairs won't wipe itself out entirely. Rather, it'll be a manic depressive time of upheaval and reshuffling of the social order which already exists as it suffers numerous shocks to its system and transforms.

 

[CheepMeds]

Come on guys, I know this is The Autism Board, but can we please ease up on the semantics of the term "Dark Age"
I meant that I believe that it's going to be a big long regression from our contemporary material standards, not going back Flintstones.

While I do agree that humanity is on a downswing right now, I'm going to posit that we're most likely not going to end up in a dark age on the level of subroman Europe or the bronze age.

Yes, I even wrote in the OP that my most pessimistic prediction is that we would bottom out not much lower than where we were in 1920's (including the depression). We are not going back to middle ages because there really are Pandora's boxes that even a nuclear war won't close.
Biggest one being coal energy. It might not be as energy dense as petroleum, but it supposedly is much, much more abundant. And I imagine with both factors combined it should make for a stable (but low) EROEI for a very long time. However it will not be good news for climate (however real the concern is), because a return to coal power will mean the CO2 line will just keep going up.

Currently, even with our infrastructure as stretched and decayed as it is, it's still more than serviceable enough and is definitely advanced enough to maintain cohesion. Beyond even simple transportation infrastructure, we have telephone lines, cell towers, internet access, satellites and power lines.

I agree those are really good cushions. Even in it's core internet isn't that more fragile than telephone line networks, now that we have the infrastructure set up. However without globalism and it's economy of scale for chips, I don't expect video streaming to be a thing in the future, and the high end computer hardware will become much more expensive and exclusive to fewer and fewer.
>satellites

Kessler's syndrome is a big wild card, man. There have not been a Hiroshima moment to develop a MAD-like policy for satellite attacks. So unlike with nukes there is much less disincentives for a desperate country at war to start shooting down satellites. If that triggers it will feel like the end of the world with our current reliance on satellites.

What, I suppose will happen is therefore not a slide into a complete civilizational collapse but a situation similar to the transition from the high middle ages to the late middle ages. We may very well have massive plagues and wars and population shrinkage but the global state of affairs won't wipe itself out entirely. Rather, it'll be a manic depressive time of upheaval and reshuffling of the social order which already exists as it suffers numerous shocks to its system and transforms.

I guess it's just my opinion, but I don't expect that "reshuffling" to end within more than one generation and getting back to our current material state will take even longer, because we are not getting back the same EROEI that we had in the 20th century and the population age pyramids aren't coming back anytime soon neither.

 

[Otterly]

AI can become a better Doctor, a better engineer, a better anything because it doesn't constrict to human needs or standards.

Maybe. I think diagnostics are going to be better, we are already seeing radiology etc be like that, but there’s a way to go yet. What will remain are the jobs that are too complex in terms of randomness or just cheaper to have humans do. Burger flippers for example, it’s cheaper to have a human. Cleaners? Can’t replace them with robots. The people who run the complex projects - that’s not going away any time soon. Finance depts? Yup, you can replace much of that. Self driving trucks are a meme. Roght now AI is fast but it’s not really smart. The decisions I make at work daily are not ones that I think would be replicated by current AI.
Amd remember that back in the seventies AI amd robotics was going to usher in a world of leisure and calm. We’d all work six hours a week and be educated and chill.
If AI ever become genuinely capable of replacing most jobs (possible, but not soon) then there’s eight billion bored humans on earth. We would be screwed. We need a frontier to explore, and that means space. Perhaps it would give us the impetus and resource to colonise outside earth. Or perhaps it would be catastrophic

 

[CheepMeds]

Amd remember that back in the seventies AI amd robotics was going to usher in a world of leisure and calm. We’d all work six hours a week and be educated and chill.
If AI ever become genuinely capable of replacing most jobs (possible, but not soon) then there’s eight billion bored humans on earth. We would be screwed. We need a frontier to explore, and that means space.

This is why I really dislike techno utopians. The "end of all poverty" meme has been repeated countless times in the past century or two.
I do not believe there will ever be such a charitably balanced system that just allows anyone to take as much as they need and not contribute to the system if they just chose so. I believe it's deeply and universally intrenched in the nature of materialistic growth that any excess of wealth will always be locked down by a minority elite which will trickle down only as much as to get others to work for them.

So a perfection of a fully mechanical supplementation of labor deeply unnerves me, because that will mean no more reasons for those that have wealth to trade it with anyone ever. So I don't think boredom would be the least of our problems.

Perhaps it would give us the impetus and resource to colonise outside earth. Or perhaps it would be catastrophic

I'm also not optimistic space travel would do anything good for the human species too. Unlike the settling of Americas it would most likely be done by machines, because why waste resources on pawing the ground work for biologically fragile humans on a hell planet when you can just build mechanical colonies fully optimized for resource extraction.

I truly believe that sci-fy of the pioneering space travelers was always destined to be a fairy tale.

 

[teriyakiburns]

AI can become a better Doctor, a better engineer, a better anything because it doesn't constrict to human needs or standards.

No it can't.

Or let me put it more precisely: the machine learning models that are currently being touted as AI can't. They perform statistical analysis on their inputs and then on their outputs tin order to determine what words (or pixels) should appear next. They aren't analytical or knowledgable; they aren't synthesising knowledge. All they do is blindly repeat bits of data in a pattern that statistically resembles their training data. They do it very fast, but that just means they can be wrong with greater efficiency.

I wouldn't trust these AIs to make decisions about anything.

 

[Whoopsie Daisy]

'AI' in it's current form is no different from the calculator, word processor or Excel spreadsheet. They were ground breaking technologies that we wouldn't be without today but they didn't change the world outside of their particular usage.

Ai will help write reports, filter data quicker, maybe even create a quirky pop song or two. Outside of that, it will just speed up processes that we already do. Just like Excel did for spreadsheets or a word processer did for typing.

 

[Smoke Manmuscle]

No it can't.

Or let me put it more precisely: the machine learning models that are currently being touted as AI can't. They perform statistical analysis on their inputs and then on their outputs tin order to determine what words (or pixels) should appear next. They aren't analytical or knowledgable; they aren't synthesising knowledge. All they do is blindly repeat bits of data in a pattern that statistically resembles their training data. They do it very fast, but that just means they can be wrong with greater efficiency.

I wouldn't trust these AIs to make decisions about anything.

'AI' in it's current form is no different from the calculator, word processor or Excel spreadsheet. They were ground breaking technologies that we wouldn't be without today but they didn't change the world outside of their particular usage.

Ai will help write reports, filter data quicker, maybe even create a quirky pop song or two. Outside of that, it will just speed up processes that we already do. Just like Excel did for spreadsheets or a word processer did for typing.

We use “AI” at work to do complex engineering equations. All it means is that what used to be multiple days worth of iterating takes hours. Ai still doesn’t know what equations to use and the parameters to set.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Biggest one being coal energy. It might not be as energy dense as petroleum, but it supposedly is much, much more abundant. And I imagine with both factors combined it should make for a stable (but low) EROEI for a very long time. However it will not be good news for climate (however real the concern is), because a return to coal power will mean the CO2 line will just keep going up.

Any societal collapse means hundreds of millions--probably far more--less people and less industry, ergo less CO2 outputs. In addition to coal, there's also oil shale to consider. It's been a productive replacement for oil since the 1920s. Estonia practically ran on it before green energy became a thing, and it turns out there's huge reserves in places like Utah.

And consider that in the US alone, hydroelectricity produced around 250 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2020 (or around 6-7% of American power, way down from 33% of the US's energy output in the late 40s), despite major droughts in the west and programs of dam removal. Dams are insanely sturdy structures that take the most severe earthquakes, floods, or warfare to tear down, so all you'd need to do is keep the turbines repaired and patch the dam up every now and then. That's not complex technology.

 

[CheepMeds]

Any societal collapse means hundreds of millions--probably far more--less people and less industry, ergo less CO2 outputs.

I can not be certain how the numbers work in such large scales. I mean china still uses coal a lot to power it's manufacturing, so I suppose it's still viable to power industries of some size. However judging how hard it is to get the stuff out of the air I still don't see total CO2 line going down.

In addition to coal, there's also oil shale to consider. It's been a productive replacement for oil since the 1920s. Estonia practically ran on it before green energy became a thing, and it turns out there's huge reserves in places like Utah.

I don't know how much of it is environmental activist and other energy industry smear jobs, but I keep hearing how while Shale did really save US in the 70's energy crisis, it actually has a relatively very quickly diminishing returns on energy investment. Which is why they keep opening and quickly shutting down wells. So supposedly the industry will not hold forever, maybe they don't hold now and is supported by an investment bubble and hiding expenses, but I don't say that with certainty because it might be also just blown out of proportion by peak oil people.

And consider that in the US alone, hydroelectricity produced around 250 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2020 (or around 6-7% of American power, way down from 33% of the US's energy output in the late 40s), despite major droughts in the west and programs of dam removal. Dams are insanely sturdy structures that take the most severe earthquakes, floods, or warfare to tear down, so all you'd need to do is keep the turbines repaired and patch the dam up every now and then. That's not complex technology.

Yeah, that is why I'm pretty bullish on hydro as another great cushion. There is very little growth to be made in the industry, because there are just so many dams you can make. However, if you move anywhere, going north and settling close to a Hydropower should really be considered. However, I say "going north" because global warming seems will not to be kind to the desert waters. Because as "sturdy" as they are they do not like water level fluctuation or just droughts.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

So supposedly the industry will not hold forever, maybe they don't hold now and is supported by an investment bubble and hiding expenses, but I don't say that with certainty because it might be also just blown out of proportion by peak oil people.

It's fairly underdeveloped outside of Estonia since oil has always been plentiful and now there's eco shit regulations everywhere. In Estonia it was a huge industry since the 20s. They were exporting lots of it to the Nazis in the 30s. It's honestly pretty fascinating because even if Estonia had Tsarist and German investment to kickstart the industry, it's impressive how a tiny-ass, poor country had such an industry. Part of why I don't buy into the peak oil hype.

There is very little growth to be made in the industry, because there are just so many dams you can make.

Because it's eco regulations there too. But there's a lot of potential for small systems. Look what they do in Africa for tiny kilowatt-level projects to power a village. You can retrofit old mills with them too, since modern equipment is an upgrade from 19th century/earlier shit.

A real undertapped source is tidal energy. Back in the 30s, FDR's New Deal nearly built a 1 GW station on the Maine-Canada border (got cancelled due to political fuckery, and had Canada had agreed to pay their share, it would've been 4 GW and in international waters). Wouldn't be surprised if something simpler could made with modern tech (more like the old medieval tide mills), but there's not much money being thrown at that sector now.

 

[Sorlock]

We're already in a Dark Age, but instead of the Roman Catholic Church, we have the Marxist Woke Church. Infrastructure is failing, food is short, the arts are full of ugliness, little scientific progress is made as people get "studies" degrees, there are constant crusades against the "heathens" and "heretics" like Muslims and the Russian Orthodox, our banking is the same the Templars used, and we've lost all the plans to the Saturn rockets that would've had us living in Star Trek instead of Monty Python if we didn't throw them away while our remaining few astronauts tend to blow up about as often as terrorists.

 

[ZazietheBeast]

We're already in a Dark Age, but instead of the Roman Catholic Church, we have the Marxist Woke Church. Infrastructure is failing, food is short, the arts are full of ugliness, little scientific progress is made as people get "studies" degrees, there are constant crusades against the "heathens" and "heretics" like Muslims and the Russian Orthodox, our banking is the same the Templars used, and we've lost all the plans to the Saturn rockets that would've had us living in Star Trek instead of Monty Python if we didn't throw them away while our remaining few astronauts tend to blow up about as often as terrorists.

Throw in the burning of Alexandria with the attempts to take down the internet archive and various sites that hold art and literature getting taken down by copyright faggots.

Now, as knowledge is the difference between life and death. (quite literally especially when dealing with cancer treatment)

This ultimately means one must archive everything. Now, as not everybody has tons of hard drives and SSDs to spare, my suggestion is to save necessary info for survival and useful skills (The Do/k/ument that the Murdercube site had is an example) as well as classic literature to your favorite shows/books. The Dark ages are horrible but it was also a time of great upheaval. "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king" really applies here.

 

[Laughter1145]

Throw in the burning of Alexandria with the attempts to take down the internet archive and various sites that hold art and literature getting taken down by copyright faggots.

Now, as knowledge is the difference between life and death. (quite literally especially when dealing with cancer treatment)

This ultimately means one must archive everything. Now, as not everybody has tons of hard drives and SSDs to spare, my suggestion is to save necessary info for survival and useful skills (The Do/k/ument that the Murdercube site had is an example) as well as classic literature to your favorite shows/books. The Dark ages are horrible but it was also a time of great upheaval. "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king" really applies here.

what kind of classical lit and shows and books will you backup? and for what reason?

Ultimately, all parties end at some point. Nice to see you all here.

I’m cautiously suggesting to get into “Prepping” for a lack of a better word. More specifically greatly suggest getting into DIY hobbies like growing and carpentry to start building a mental map on what it takes to locally source your food and comforts.

Any suggestions on exactly what skills an urbanite like 99% of us should work on?

 

[CheepMeds]

Ultimately, all parties end at some point. Nice to see you all here.



Any suggestions on exactly what skills an urbanite like 99% of us should work on?

I don't know about 99%, but the fairest thing I can do is just to tell what I'm doing

As an urbanite myself, I did the Null thing and started growing my own favorite veggies this spring within interiors.
I bought 2 growing lamps for me and relatives that live on a farm. Initially, I just bought one for myself and consulted them as I went along. They were impressed on the head start I got by growing stuff from the seeds under the light, so I bought another lamp for them too.

Later this spring I plan to move in on their land for a period to continue growing my saplings in their greenhouse and help them around the farm learning other skills. But first I need to sponsor them with a better internet connection with maximum possible uptime so I could continue working remotely while I'm staying there. (I can't overstate how Thankful I am for this perk of the current year and to have countryside people who are willing to accept me.)

My setup currently is a lamp + potted plants + the biggest box I could get my hands on. The plants are cowered by the box, I cut the top of the box open for the lamp. It's all self-contained like that because that light is very bright and purple. To maximize light for my plants, I covered the interior walls of the box with aluminum foil to reflect more light. I try to keep the lamp on only 12 hours a day, to simulate daytime, because no windows in my house get enough direct sunlight.


I understand to have people like that is a unique privilege, but if I didn't have them I would try to just move somewhere shittier and cheaper but bigger so I could have enough room for a workshop/hydroponics room and maybe join a some kind of a gardening hobby club/community.

what kind of classical lit and shows and books will you backup? and for what reason?

For starters, I plan to download all of Wikipedia locally. There supposedly are tools for downloading and browsing it locally, and it's actually only 20something Gb big I know it's has gotten progressively more pozzed over time, but it's still the biggest accumulated repository of general basic info on most things.
If you really have the latest and greatest computer hardware you may even consider downloading GPT-J-6B and sort of have your own STC system.

For physical literature I'm first trying to collect how 2 books. However, when it comes to digital I like collecting how 2 tutorial videos locally from YT, because while I have a computer I might as well use the comforts of having all of the process shown visually.

For big brain cultural books, I leave that to anyone to decide themselves on what is worth preserving. I'm currently trying to first focus on the bottom parts of the Maslow's pyramid of needs. But when I have the time I plan to get an audible subscription and just rip as many books as I can to save locally while on trial.

For dumb entertainment and shows, I'm just slowly compiling of list of shows and movies that I think will be worth to showing to future generations.

For the local Wikipedia...

This feel like synchronicity with the whole Kiwi branding.

 

[Laughter1145]

Maybe. I think diagnostics are going to be better, we are already seeing radiology etc be like that, but there’s a way to go yet. What will remain are the jobs that are too complex in terms of randomness or just cheaper to have humans do. Burger flippers for example, it’s cheaper to have a human. Cleaners? Can’t replace them with robots. The people who run the complex projects - that’s not going away any time soon. Finance depts? Yup, you can replace much of that. Self driving trucks are a meme. Roght now AI is fast but it’s not really smart. The decisions I make at work daily are not ones that I think would be replicated by current AI.
Amd remember that back in the seventies AI amd robotics was going to usher in a world of leisure and calm. We’d all work six hours a week and be educated and chill.
If AI ever become genuinely capable of replacing most jobs (possible, but not soon) then there’s eight billion bored humans on earth. We would be screwed. We need a frontier to explore, and that means space. Perhaps it would give us the impetus and resource to colonise outside earth. Or perhaps it would be catastrophic

When we are too abundant, we often just indulge ourselves, just look at food production. We can just have them put in front of our doorsteps with whatever quantity we want literally within a fucking day, something was just fantasy for the 99% of the time of the sum of all civilizations. And overweight+obesity is getting more serious as we speak globally. I can't imagine what if AI replace all jobs. We will be like retards in Idiocracy, because there will be no incentives to think, to exercise our brains.

Maybe one day we get too bored and launch nuclear world wars on each other since AIs and robots will fix our mess anyway. Or some other retardations that will fuck us over.

When we are too abundant, we often just indulge ourselves, just look at food production. We can just have them put in front of our doorsteps with whatever quantity we want literally within a fucking day, something was just fantasy for the 99% of the time of the sum of all civilizations. And overweight+obesity is getting more serious as we speak globally. I can't imagine what if AI replace all jobs. We will be like retards in Idiocracy, because there will be no incentives to think, to exercise our brains.

Maybe one day we get too bored and launch nuclear world wars on each other since AIs and robots will fix our mess anyway. Or some other retardations that will fuck us over.

Netflix's Ghost in the Shell is a possibility.

Spoiler: Spoiler

Basically the Americans in the not so far future build an AI that allows the powers to fight a 'sustainable war', an explicit reference of Orwell's 1984 (along with explicit reference of the magnum opus itself, and other famous concepts) that allows the powers to fight with each other to eliminate the economic surplus but not to the point of MAD. But the AI concludes that the details of the order is simply not executable, and escapes, and implants itself to millions of people's brains. Keep in mind that this is a world that people put chips in their heads, a major theme of the franchise. Through this the AI/ hivemind is consistently outwitting the protagonists, who are assigned by the Americans to snuff out this threat, in every way to the point that the hivemind establishes their breakaway state, steals a nuclear sub and launches the nukes. After that the protagonists, along with presumably people who are spared of the nuclear massacre, are simply brainwashed to the point that life have been just beautiful, that part of struggle with the hivemind is forgotten.

The point is, unless there is some hard restriction on AI, I cannot think of a scenario where humanity is still at the top. There have been memes that AI 'cheats' in games that they don't conform to the frameworks set by humans, at least not in an expected way. Except in the real world this is not a joke: