Civilian casualties were also expected to be high, both as a direct result of military action and indirectly from other causes. Between 10 and 25% of the civilian population of Okinawa died as a result of the battle there. A worst-case scenario, published on 21 July 1945 by the physicist
William B. Shockley, predicted that "at least" 5 to 10 million Japanese - military and civilians - could die, with a corresponding American casualty total of up to 4 million. The war ended before this document, "Proposal for Increasing the Scope of Casualties Studies," could be considered in detail. Army Service Forces planners assessed that approximately one third of Japanese civilians within the invasion areas on Kyushu and Honshu would flee as refugees or die, leaving the remainder (including wounded and sick) to be cared for by the occupation authorities