Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Oxyjen]

Who's to say it's final or that Trump would even go forward with it? And it's not like Ukraine is just going to accept unfavorable terms, US could withdraw all their aid, it doesn't mean Ukraine would just roll over.

It’s a hypothetical. If the US withdraws all aid after Trump offers a “take it or leave it” shit sandwich of a peace deal, would you consider that as being an action taken to benefit Russia?

 

[teriyakiburns]

But more importantly he *openly* sought Russian assistance in return for policy in 2016, and received that assistance.

The only time he "sought russian assistance" was when he jokingly asked the russians to leak hillary's emails. Trump policy from his first day in office was not favourable to Russia, as he didn't remove sanctions imposed by Obama or work to increase any sort of geopolitical cooperation with Russia, and by 2018 he was actively pursuing sanctions of his own devising, levying them against dozens of Russian oligarchs and companies, and in particular against any company working on Nordstream 2. He was openly hostile to Russia's geopolitical goals and was vocal about Russia's undue influence over the EU, singling out Germany's reliance on Russian gas as a dangerously compromising position; a warning that was prescient, given the way Russia used gas as a cudgel aginst Germany in the opening weeks of the Ukraine invasion. Whatever pal-around games Trump might have played with Putin, when he wasn't insulting him on Twitter of course, his official stance was not Russia-friendly.

Right now, Trump is threatening huge sanctions against Russia and the rest of the BRICS meme countries for fucking with the US dollar. We've also got influential figures in the Kremlin claiming that Putin won't entertain the recently mooted peace proposals (archive), complete with another round of Russia's Final Nuclear Warning. This is not the behaviour of a country that thinks it is installing a patsy.

 

[Oxyjen]

This is not the behaviour of a country that thinks it is installing a patsy

I genuinely hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

It’s a hypothetical. If the US withdraws all aid after offering a “take it or leave it” shit sandwich of a peace deal, would you consider that being an action taken to benefit Russia?

Absolutely. Worth noting that various parties stand to benefit from it, I'd be a liar if I said that it's entirely reasonable to expect America to pick up the tab when it comes to Ukraine, it would be entirely fair to fuck off and say that the ball is in Europe's court now, especially considering their neglect of the matter over the years. I distinctly remember them laughing in response to Trump saying that it's going to bite them in the ass, which is exactly what happened.

The sole fact that everything seems to hinge on America's decision should be embarrassing to Europe. They got to enjoy peace dividend, fucked around for decades and were caught off guard by this whole situation, now US is forced to be the adult in the room. Because at the end of the day, guy with the biggest boomstick gets to dictate the rules, and now in all their haughtiness eurocucks are forced to face this simple truth.

Ukraine's cause is just, and while America has plenty of valid reasons to support them in opposing Russian aggression, it's their prerogative whether to do so or not. It would be wrong from the moral standpoint to turn away from the nation in need, and unwise in geopolitical sense to let one's adversary do as they please. But America has the right to choose.
All that said, it wouldn't necessarily mean that Trump made the choice to withdraw because he's compromised (specifically by Putin directly), although that is a possibility.
My hope is that he doesn't, and I'd be very disappointed if he does. It's in my own interest that he presses Putin and forces him to take an L, weakening the strongman image he relies on to sell his bullshit to Russian people, while delivering Ukraine some semblance of justice.

Forgive the wall of text, I'm just trying to be thorough.

 

[teriyakiburns]

I genuinely hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

If I'm wrong, then I'm close enough to certain strategic targets that I won't have to live with the bruised ego for very long.

 

[Pedophobe]

If this peace deal is implemented, and angry voters kick out Zelensky's government, that's basically all the stated aims of the SMO achieved.

 

[Vince McMahon]

If this peace deal is implemented

If and depends on the guarantees. Ukraine doesn't really have much leverage but is working on it. We'll see how successfully.

 

[Snekposter]

Being very optimistic that Russia would keep any of its word, promises or guarantees.

Which is why some actual solid shit for Ukraine like NATO membership will be on the table. Any sort of fake peace like that would make America look weak and be very damaging to Trump's ego.

If I'm wrong, then I'm close enough to certain strategic targets that I won't have to live with the bruised ego for very long.

And I'm far enough away from Portland I'd get to experience life without it for probably a month tops until the inevitable breakdown of society winds up killing me, so much like you the downsides have some hefty mitigating factors.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

And I'm far enough away from Portland I'd get to experience life without it for probably a month tops until the inevitable breakdown of society winds up killing me, so much like you the downsides have some hefty mitigating factors.

When you put it like this, any sort of apocalyptic scenario doesn't seem quite as bad. People you hate dying the same shitty death alongside you is like a soothing balm to these existential horrors. It's such a positive outlook, thank you!

 

[Quindoll]

The worst peace plan lol. If this is really it then Ukraine is fucked and only further improves Chinas confidence in attacking Taiwan.

Let Russia go off the hook, lift sanctions and welcome it back in the main stage. Sounds like Musk had some influence on that. No punishments, nothing. Disgusting.

It also doesn’t matter if you support Trump or not, we should be able to be a-political when it comes to this. This is objectively a terrible peace plan that has no security guarantees for Ukraine and if there are so called “China hawkes” in government then this is even more retarded.

Tells me that you need nukes or else big powers will do whatever they want with you.

 

[Oxyjen]

If I'm wrong, then I'm close enough to certain strategic targets that I won't have to live with the bruised ego for very long.

But… which gives you better odds of not dying in a tardo-nuclear conflict..

I’m right, Trump is a patsy and will let Putin do whatever he wants in his half of the world as long as he doesn’t mess with other US interests.

Or you’re right, Trump is a maverick wildcard deal maker who plays by his own rules, up against a hostile Russia and desperate, jilted Putler.


Sucks to be a Eurocuck either way but what else is new.

 

[Shovelbird]

Interest Free Loans?

Trumps High IQ Peace will Reign a Million Years Plan is to freeze the conflict for a decade or so.
View attachment 6707181View attachment 6707184

Why am I hearing Klezmer and hand rubbing?

 

[Thomas Talus]

And I'm far enough away from Portland I'd get to experience life without it for probably a month tops until the inevitable breakdown of society winds up killing me, so much like you the downsides have some hefty mitigating factors.

Is Portland really a strategic target these days? There's a lot less shipping than there used to be, and no military assets other than a few ANG planes at the airport.

 

[National Defense Advocate]

What would Trump do if both sides call his plan retarded?
His whole deal was carrot and stick, but Putin doesn't want your carrot, and wether it does or not, he acts like the stick doesn't hurt. Putin, nor the greater Russian metropolitan, does not care how many boys come home in boxes (or not at all) so the threat of continuing aid isn't a threat.

Zelenkskyy is likely to dismiss it the grounds that it's effectively just a temporary Cease Fire, not a peace plan. We've done this in the Donbas already.


Personally, I think Trump will just wash his hands of the matter, lift sanctions and try to ignore Europe and Russia for his term.
This will backfire, as most things Trump does and end up hurting us substantially in the long run.
Disheartened our only "Reliable allies", by our Governments own choice, are a bunch of fucking Arabs, LARPing as Jews.
I have a theory this was intentional, especially after the ICC warrant. "You didn't provide nearly enough material, you constantly criticized our invasions AND you threatened the Jew King" So you get thrown to the bear, as it were.

 

[N Space]

Is Portland really a strategic target these days? There's a lot less shipping than there used to be, and no military assets other than a few ANG planes at the airport.

You'd be surprised at how small and irrelevant some nuclear targets are.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Interest Free Loans?


Why am I hearing Klezmer and hand rubbing?

That alleged plan (as in it might form the basis of anything) is basically envisages the US abandoning another ally and allowing the Kremlin dictator to bank his limited gains, pause and prepare to resume. The Kellog-Fleitz plan from April marked a change from his words last year about supporting Ukraine, and it would be extraordinary shameful and a surrender to a flailing midget power and its hybrid and actual warfare. If Trump tries to push that on Ukraine, that gives credibility to those who think both or either him or his team are Russian assets or at least utter fools played by a cunning turd worlder beloved of smelly pajeets. It is extraordinarily favourable to a failed invader who struggles against a defender with a mix of old Soviet and Western weapons, and who has lost control of much of Kursk oblast. They are not even near to recovering their high point of territorial success over a year ago. However, this is a plan from many months co-authored by a elderly nominee. It's not definitive.

United24 reviewed it and notes criticisms (archive) / original link

While the “Kellogg Plan” proposes a framework for peace, its critics argue that it heavily favors Russia. The plan offers substantial incentives to Moscow, such as territorial retention and the gradual lifting of sanctions, while Ukraine faces pressure to accept a ceasefire without substantial territorial gains. The promise of continued military aid to Ukraine is vague, and there is no clear mechanism to ensure that Russia will adhere to any agreement reached.

Some critics point out that the plan’s focus on diplomatic engagement with Russia risks legitimizing the Kremlin’s aggressive actions and undermines the West’s current policies toward Moscow. Additionally, the absence of credible penalties for a potential Russian breach of the agreement raises concerns about the plan’s long-term viability.

Despite these criticisms, the plan does avoid some of the more extreme demands Russia had previously made, such as Ukraine’s demilitarization and the recognition of its annexations. However, the proposals remain highly controversial and reflect a broader debate about how best to balance diplomacy, security, and territorial integrity in the face of ongoing war.

Ukrainian forces foil attempted Russian bridgehead over the Oksil River taking the village of Novomlynsk. The video showed part of the failed assault and the Ukrainian flag flying over a liberated village. Kyiv Post reports on the operation (archive) / original link

The drone footage shows part of the Russian assault and ends with the raising of the Ukrainian flag in Novomlynsk. A Ukrainian soldier in the video said: “The Defense Forces have recaptured the settlement of Novomlynsk. I am raising the flag. Glory to Ukraine.”

The Oskil River has long served as a key front line in eastern Ukraine. This winding waterway flows from Russia’s western border through northeastern Ukraine, where Russian and Ukrainian forces have remained entrenched on opposite banks throughout much of the war.

The report states that despite their numerical advantage, Russian soldiers managed to cross the water barrier. However, Ukrainian forces, backed by artillery and UAV units, have successfully driven them out of the bridgehead.

The 8th Separate Assault Battalion of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade “Edelweiss” played a key role in clearing the area around Novomlynsk of Russian forces, as per the report.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Well, quite frankly, there's one big thing everybody keeps overlooking:

Trump: "Hey, Ukraine, launch investigations into Biden's son."
Ukraine: "No"

Trump would fuck Ukraine over big time purely out of spite, as well as putting the pause on the war that gives Putin everything because then it makes the Dems look bad for wanting to do anything that disturbs that peace. And let's not forget the secret meeting with the Russians on his big-ass jet with his name on it, of which recon photographs exist, between terms. Or all those closed-door private meetings he had with Putin while president.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Interesting video by William Spaniel on how (un)realistic it would be for Ukraine to acquire either NATO membership or le nuke, recommending instead conventional weaponry and the prospect that Russia wouldn't want to restart the war all over again:
"How Ukraine Will Guarantee a Post-War Settlement with Russia"

 

[mindlessobserver]

Interesting video by William Spaniel on how (un)realistic it would be for Ukraine to acquire either NATO membership or le nuke, recommending instead conventional weaponry and the prospect that Russia wouldn't want to restart the war all over again:
"How Ukraine Will Guarantee a Post-War Settlement with Russia"

Large standing armies are expensive. I would be curious how Spaniel expects Ukraine to pay for it. Fielding what they have now has taxed Ukrainian society to the breaking point. Demobilization will have to happen once the war ends.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Large standing armies are expensive. I would be curious how Spaniel expects Ukraine to pay for it. Fielding what they have now has taxed Ukrainian society to the breaking point. Demobilization will have to happen once the war ends.

I imagine also repayment of debts. I am curious how that will be sorted. I imagine a lot of it will be in material, grain and minerals, etc. A large standing army post war would be hard to maintain even if they didn't have to pay back half the world.