Home Buying / Housing Market Griefing Thread - You're going to rent until you die.

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I was looking at the housing market with someone yesterday and this basically sums it all up.
 
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Flatline said:
Just be "lucky" and "privileged"
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That's the foundation of all of these stories. There is a certain stratum of society that is difficult to reach without significant generational wealth, the kind that keeps growing because it's already big enough to make capital investments in individual family members and shelter them from upheavals like the Great Recession. Even the ones who tried to claim a middle class origin were all clearly maneuvered into situations where "luck" was guaranteed early in life. Without all that, houses like these people describe require actual luck to attain.
 
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tehpope said:

good news. Sellers outnumber buyers. Now to wait for prices and 30y rates to drop.
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  • Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. Prospective buyers may see their purchasing power increase, and prospective sellers should consider selling sooner rather than later.
For being such a buyers market, absolutely no meaningful drop in home prices makes this all a giant joke after the giant covid housing bubble. Mortgage rates are currently 7% in the US. For a $400k house on a 30y mortgage with a 20% downpayment, this would give you a roughly $2100/month loan payment without including the cost of taxes or insurance. Based on the 33% rule, excluding the existence of taxes, this would mean that a 400k home is only affordable to someone with a household income of at least $75k/year in a world where taxes don't exist. The median home price in the US is in the ballpark of $440k right now. I.e. the typical person can only afford a house if they're married and devote an obscene portion of their income to buying a house, which presumably never has taxes, repairs, or insurance. Somehow, I expect with ever collapsing marriage rates that we're entering a future where half of the under 40 demographics can reasonably expect to never own a home.

Man, I just can't figure out why the sellers outnumber the buyers so hard. Must be them millennials and zoomers eating avocado toast. Deprive yourselves harder, some boomer needs to offload real estate in coastal Florida to pay for their retirement cruises.

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I admit I have infinite amusement that these are basically all no income tax states (TX, TN, FL, and NV), which infers that this is mostly being driven by return to office mandates sending hellspawn back to where they came from. Nashville was never a nice city but it deserved better than to be flooded with Californians and New Yorkers.

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Speak of the devil, would you look at that? It's a bunch of mid atlantic and new england states that are running out of housing. Return to office theory seems ever so plausible with insufferable city slickers shitting up cheaper parts of the country and ruining their real estate markets with 100k+ bids over asking price in cash. Well fuck these guys, I hope the housing market stagnates until they LOSE money on their ill-intentioned purchases, bloody carpet bagging Yankee scumfucks. Now, we just need to tax retirement income as short term capital gains in states with nice climates. That'll really fix up housing prices and shoo the dying leeches back to New Jersey where they belong.
 
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Audit said:
For being such a buyers market, absolutely no meaningful drop in home prices makes this all a giant joke after the giant covid housing bubble.
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People love being in denial about house price drops, so they do everything in their power to hold the price steady (whilst inflation drops the real price).

Builders around here are now packing in the "free upgrade" shit and I've seen multiple houses with 5-10% price drops (because they're empty and they actually want to sell). I'm relatively comfortable saying it has begun. Next step, at least around here, is for the builders to slow down - right now they've switched from customized (buy before build) to spec-homes, but that's because they are stuck developing what they started.
Audit said:
insufferable city slickers shitting up cheaper parts of the country and ruining their real estate markets with 100k+ bids over asking price in cash
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the faggotry of some real estate markets cannot be underestimated - it's well known in those markets that you HAVE to price your house well below it's value because EVERYONE likes the "bids over asking price" shit. It's all realtor kayfabe to seduce the owners that they're not getting gaped by realtors.
 
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Pendulous Dong said:
Taking my house off the market after 8 months without a buyer. Prices are dropping in my area and I'd rather just stay where I am instead of selling at a loss.
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Scale this up across the board and I'm thinking a lot of people will never be able to own a home. Tons of people are waiting for homes/rates to go down but if others will be selling at a loss it's just not going to work out.
 
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The housing market is in a mess where I live, we have unholy combinations of making it crappier. I'm one of the few who will be lucky, but there is genuine anger rising about it. The recent boom in tourists has not helped at all so we have people out of state buying up houses, leaving them empty for most of the year, or sometimes every other year. There's also the AirBnB drama which has driven up rent and housing prices. We haven't reached Spain levels of anti-tourism, and I doubt we will, but the anger is there. Since millennials and zoomers are also having less children, I wonder what happens when boomers die out.
NoReturn said:
Scale this up across the board and I'm thinking a lot of people will never be able to own a home. Tons of people are waiting for homes/rates to go down but if others will be selling at a loss it's just not going to work out.
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I will not be surprised if it makes the political backlash a lot larger than it was before. It's one thing for average items to be unaffordable, but when you cannot afford a home or rent, and everywhere is skyrocketing in price. It doesn't help many jobs are also in the same few cities, or ditched small towns and smaller cities. Those cities are also overpriced leaving those who cannot afford to leave left behind.
 
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Made In Lovely Kin said:
I will not be surprised if it makes the political backlash a lot larger than it was before. It's one thing for average items to be unaffordable, but when you cannot afford a home or rent, and everywhere is skyrocketing in price. It doesn't help many jobs are also in the same few cities, or ditched small towns and smaller cities. Those cities are also overpriced leaving those who cannot afford to leave left behind.
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Not just the cities. The rural areas are fucked, too. There's nowhere "safe" anymore.
 
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NoReturn said:
Scale this up across the board and I'm thinking a lot of people will never be able to own a home. Tons of people are waiting for homes/rates to go down but if others will be selling at a loss it's just not going to work out.
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Easy way to fix this is just drive up property taxes on homes in addition to primary residence. Property hoarding is worst in low property tax areas. Compare housing prices in Dallas to LA. It's night and day. 90% of a HCOL areas is just retard states collecting income tax instead of property taxes. It tracks for NY too. Rich fucks don't actually get paid via "income" so they prefer to eliminate property taxes as much as possible to minimize their tax burden to nil. Low interest rates are also bad for home buyers because they drive up principle costs on a house. It's just boomers that need the combination of low interest rates and low property taxes to cash out. Young home buyers want high interest rates and high taxes to force down principle as much as possible to eliminate investor advantages.
 
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NoReturn said:
Not just the cities. The rural areas are fucked, too. There's nowhere "safe" anymore.
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Right, I've seen some really shitty homes in rural towns nearby sell for over 400,000 and those were "cheap." I always wonder who the fuck is buying them, flippers? AirBnB people? Investors? Usually tourists don't buy that shitty sort of housing. The same people who claim to "escape" whatever city or state they come from are driving up housing prices.
 
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Made In Lovely Kin said:
Right, I've seen some really shitty homes in rural towns nearby sell for over 400,000 and those were "cheap." I always wonder who the fuck is buying them, flippers? AirBnB people? Investors? Usually tourists don't buy that shitty sort of housing. The same people who claim to "escape" whatever city or state they come from are driving up housing prices.
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Flippers, AirBNB, and investment conglomerates.
 
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NoReturn said:
Flippers, AirBNB, and investment conglomerates.
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Lot of really nice land being bought up to divide and turn into cheaply made and overpopulated shitholes. Sellers mostly seem to be older 55+, they want to move to a place with less/no maintenance and don't really care who it goes to, so they have no incentive to sell to another generation.
 
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NoReturn said:
You observed correctly.
I learned recently the median homebuyer in 2007 was born in 1968, today the median homeowner was also born in 1968.
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I live in an area where in the last 3 years Lennar, Toll brothers, DR Horton have tossed up 500k shit boxes on a .10 acre of land, and in the last 6 months the prices on these prefabbed Mexican built shacks they are down to 399k. New homes falling too is all i am saying ......

Catching a falling knife on a note to a lender not my cup of tea but you do you.
 
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Fascist Kirk said:
I live in an area where in the last 3 years Lennar, Toll brothers, DR Horton have tossed up 500k shit boxes on a .10 acre of land, and in the last 6 months the prices on these prefabbed Mexican built shacks they are down to 399k. New homes falling too is all i am saying ......
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Some of the housing markets are a bit weird too. You get big cities in Texas with more sellers than buyers despite massive immigration into the state. Obviously, places like LA and NYC are due for a price check on their real estate. Looking at growth markets, I'm split between predicting high real estate prices on demand alone vs. the market being overheated compared to the income of the potential buyers. As old fucks die off, there's not exactly a crop of millionaires desperate to move to shitholes like LA and live in meth shacks, but this can even apply to cities with "reasonable" housing prices of a paltry 300 to 400k for a 3b/2b house that occupies 90% of the plot of land with a strong job market. Most people just don't make the 80k+ per year to afford even that. As marriage rates tank, the market volume of potential home buyers will keep shrinking.

It's a baffling set of circumstances. I look across the pond to Europe and it's even more confusing. They've got shit wages and even worse homes but their cost of living can be comparable to the US if not frequently higher once adjusted for income. I have no clue how places like the UK can hope to stay solvent if everyone's just waiting for a council house. Spain and Portugal are being overrun by retirees and tourists jacking up housing prices. Italy has the airbnb apocalypse trying to buy up city-center apartments. Pensioners in the UK sit on a fortune in real estate across Europe while taking in more gibmedats than a negro welfare queen.

Globally, we're due for a correction but the market is insane and the property is held by miserly boomers who can afford to hold and behave financially irrationally. Major investment firms already view residential single family real estate as an illiquid asset with dubious return on investment. Your typical single family home rental is owned by a small capital individual, not the megarich. These types have a very bad concept of making or losing money. Year on year, they are terrible at accounting for opportunity cost, depreciation, repairs, and the like and thus end up taking an effective loss versus the S&P500 with the exception of cashing out immediately after a housing bubble.

TLDR: I have no fucking clue if a young person today with the income to afford a home should wait a year or two to buy in. The world is filled with a small population of elderly haves screwing over the much younger have-nots. Third world real estate is fucked by first worlders trying to buy cheap real estate. First world real estate is fucked by old fucks sitting on the best property that they accumulated 30+ years ago when it was cheap. Boomers have to die eventually but most of us can't wait another 20 years to get a home. Cost of rent is super high though, so that'll influence some decisions depending on the availability and cost of homes in your area. Rent goes up every year while mortgage payments stay the same, albeit you have to pay for repairs and taxes.
 
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@Audit ever area is different just speaking from my area where I was born and raised.

Since the fed started Hiking rates in 22, this has been a slow burn to deflation in the housing market. Allot of people who bought in 22-24 are already selling as I said I live near 70 acres of land that have been developed with 500+ houses in the last 5 years ...... people who moved in 4 years ago moving out and a new for sale sign up..... the bust is here invest accordingly
 
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