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Autistic Joe said:
I'd like to think the Tech party isn't quite over yet, seems like there's still a lot of potential in AI. Overall it's probably a good thing if expectations "come back down to earth" for a bit, until the market gathers strength for another move up. Just for perspective, the S&P is only 2.5% off the all-time closing high, and the Nasdaq is only 6% off the top. Lol, earlier today I was calmly talking a few guys down off the ledge.
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The EY audit thing with Meta where they were moving data center capex to subsidiary companies to get it off their balance sheets barely moved the market. That seemed...odd.

I am pretty confident that we're in uncharted territory here with this bubble. Play at your own risk. There is no lifeguard on duty.
 
Froggy Fresh Sextape said:
I am pretty confident that we're in uncharted territory here with this bubble. Play at your own risk. There is no lifeguard on duty.
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Yes and no, as far as uncharted territory. Going back several centuries, every time there's a financial bubble it's a unique set of circumstances specific to that time and place which makes it new and different. But like the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes," and speculative bubbles do share a lot of similarities under the hood. Especially being driven by greed, and fear of missing out. And in the case of a new technology, there's also the promise of some unknown future where everything will be transformed and wonderful. There's definitely parallels between the current A.I. mania and previous bubbles. And there's always been no lifeguard on duty.

For one thing, it's not uncommon in the early stages of development for some companies to overspend on infrastructure. There's examples over the past 100+ years with railroads, electricity, canals and roadways, fiber-optic lines, and likely now with A.I. capex. Early companies tend to overestimate the demand and/or misjudge how long it will take to materialize. And they pay the price by taking losses, laying off workers, divesting parts of the company, suffering 90+% markdown on the stock price, or even bankruptcy. But the over-built infrastructure typically survives, and some other company acquires it cheaply, later on when the demand finally shows up.

Like the Internet Bubble in the 90's, the A.I. boom is tricky because there's a lot of different angles to look at. You have the chip manufacturers, the hardware designers, the platform software companies, the application software companies, and the data centers. Plus the real estate companies, commercial builders, and electric companies. In each of those categories there's going be pioneers who overspend, laggers who never catch up, and a few who get it "just right".

Here's a chart I may have shared before in this thread, showing how different sides of the tech sector were leading during different phases of the Mobile Internet Boom of the early 2010's. You could make a similar graph for the original Internet Bubble, and for the current A.I. Bubble.
1771301449615.png

And lastly, just on the subject of software. Here's a great article from last week talking about the impact of A.I. on existing software companies, and why the SaaS model is likely to get hit even harder than it already has (Microsoft -27%, Salesforce -48%, Workday -53%, Oracle -53%, Docusign -58%, Adobe -58%, etc.)
SaaSmageddon Is Here – and Not All Software Stocks Will Survive
(archive)
 
Froggy Fresh Sextape said:
I am pretty confident that we're in uncharted territory here with this bubble. Play at your own risk. There is no lifeguard on duty.
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I suspect there's a big AI "win" on the near horizon. Waymo is having success with their regional trials of mostly (except when rescued by filipinos) automated taxis. If they can get through any regulatory hurdles, it could spell the end of doordash, uber, and lyft as we know them. Overnight, countless jeets and gig workers will be replaced with less rape-prone computers. There will probably be fleets of specially constructed vehicles rolled out over the next 5 or so years that gradually replace the existing drivers. If Waymo pulls this off, I expect Tesla and anyone else with self-driving car software not to be too far behind. The big winners in all of this would be the software/tech giants at the expense of the gig economy, who fortunately aren't counted as part of the S&P 500 and can fuck off right back to whatever third world shithole they came from. Consumers also come out ahead when 3am taxis to the airport become supercheap because there's no spanish speaking migrant that has to work overnight at elevated rates.
 
Autistic Joe said:
But the over-built infrastructure typically survives, and some other company acquires it cheaply, later on when the demand finally shows up.
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The difference is that while most of that infrastructure can still be used decades later - railroad lines, ship canals, fiber - GPUs depreciate very quickly since technology is advancing quickly, and who knows if they'll be useful even a few years from now, like how GPUs aren't economical or useful for Bitcoin mining.

Even data centers are specially built for the specific tech put into them, and that can include cooling.
 
Peaches the Wonder Cat said:
The difference is that while most of that infrastructure can still be used decades later - railroad lines, ship canals, fiber - GPUs depreciate very quickly since technology is advancing quickly, and who knows if they'll be useful even a few years from now, like how GPUs aren't economical or useful for Bitcoin mining.
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I'd liken it to the Chinese ghost cities. You can definitely build shit but what's the point if there's no demand?
 
Lady Bizness said:
@Hollywood Hulk Hogan I just funded my Roth for the year. About to VOO n chill but wonder what else you'd do in this current climate.

Looks like my portfolio isn't as tech heavy as I thought. Thank goodness for boring stocks.
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I just bought FSKAX (Fidelity Total Market Index) for my Roth max last month and not planning to sell anytime soon (my roth is 100% in that). Remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint, don't try and time the market with your investments.

In 2 weeks I will be buying more ITOT, too
 
Hollywood Hulk Hogan said:
I just bought FSKAX (Fidelity Total Market Index) for my Roth max last month and not planning to sell anytime soon (my roth is 100% in that). Remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint, don't try and time the market with your investments.

In 2 weeks I will be buying more ITOT, too
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If you want to try and time the market, you can always follow a few ETF's and wait for 2-3 days of dips before buying in and just not sell anything
 
I'll place these here...


As well as this.


My reply. IMHO Patrick Boyle is pretty solid.

The video also validates certain things I have been saying.

If You want to get rich, or at least be fincially well off, you have to think to create a long term finanial foundation, THEN with the mindset of having some resourses to risk that you will not be upset about losing, is when you invest into riskier situations,

Like investing into the coin as an example.

Because you understand what you are most likely to lose that risky investment and it is not going to hurt your bottom line.

Traditional investing methods WORKS.
 
Any gamers here? Not a stock guy and I at least know trying to gamble and predict the stock market is the number one thing you shouldn't do when trying to invest but....

Would it be a good idea to invest all in on Capcom stock before they release Pragmata and the growing lolicon incel market buys the game in droves, then immediately sell the stock when they release an update for their sunk cost expansion for Monster Hunter Wilds?
 
Epic Fail Man said:
Would it be a good idea to invest in Capcom stock before they release Pragmata
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I think Capcom is not so bad, they just had record operating profits and, adjusted for yen inflation, the stock didn't become any more expensive in real terms. The stock may actually be undervalued at the moment. I don't think a huge price rally is going to happen on game launch, just saying your risk would be reasonably small.
Epic Fail Man said:
Would it be a good idea to invest all in on Capcom stock before they release Pragmata
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no*

* I know you're joking
 
Hello I am a master investor, I sold the following during the little economic burp way back in Feb-Apr 2025:
- NVDA at $115
- TSM at $190
- ASML at $730

Just doing my taxes, looking over the statement I got and oh damn, I just cannot make a good decision ever. Invested for like 3 months, got to my first downturn (from at the time top DOW SP500 ever) and panic sold and checked out like a FUCKING MORON.

Please don't be like me

It looked scary at the time, but it looks so fucking silly and insignificant now. The line only goes up, GROW SOME BALLS AND WAIT
 
During big downturns I just remind myself that most of my stocks pay dividends so it doesn't matter much. There are a few stinkers that I keep around just because their dividends have paid for their lack of performance over the last 15 years.
 
Autistic Joe said:
And lastly, just on the subject of software. Here's a great article from last week talking about the impact of A.I. on existing software companies, and why the SaaS model is likely to get hit even harder than it already has (Microsoft -27%, Salesforce -48%, Workday -53%, Oracle -53%, Docusign -58%, Adobe -58%, etc.)
SaaSmageddon Is Here – and Not All Software Stocks Will Survive
(archive)
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A different take on the recent software slide.
Have the Latest ‘AI Trades’ Jumped the Shark?
(archive)

The author brings up a really good point which illustrates why it's important to do your own research and not just blindly swallow the financial news and the Current Thing Narrative. Over the past few years (and we can see some of it right in this thread), we've been simultaneously hearing that A.I. will be so huge it'll put everyone out of work -- but also that the tech companies are overspending and A.I. isn't going to amount to anything. They can't both be true. Like with any new technology, jobs will change and evolve, some companies will win and some will lose.

They end with great advice:
Remember to be and remain diversified, take a deep breath, focus on your goals and the broad market’s ability to get you there, and try to have a laugh at the madness.
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A good tip for anyone looking to learn more about markets, how they operate, and not get hung up on the latest craze from CNBC or WallStreetBets: subscribe to some free financial newsletters and/or good macro-oriented YouTube channels. Try to get varied opinions so you don't fall victim to confirmation bias. Some examples that I watch/read:
I usually spend an hour or two each weekend catching up on these and a few others. I find it gives me a better idea of what's going on, and helps filter out the day-to-day noise and dooming so common in the 24/7 news cycle. YMMV, but this is what works for me.
 
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