The Economic Collapse of 2025 - Are you tired of winning yet?

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

You can squeeze more by simply increasing tariff rates until the costs of overseas operations becomes prohibitive. For what it's worth, the Biden Admin not only kept the Trump tariffs from his first term, but expanded them. Anyone looking to wait out that storm will have sacrificed at least 12 years by the time Trump leaves power in 2029. I'd dare say there's a decent chance these tariffs survive as an extra tax alone.

And what happened during Biden's term? Nothing else except the Russia Ukraine war which revealed how much graft goes into the US military-industrial complex. No one said, "Let's build more ammo factories to build more Javelins and HIMARS to compensate. It was "eh, we'll let them have 90s Abrams and a few F-16s."

So yeah, the tariffs would stay because the government loves more money from rent-seeking, but will it have the intended effect? I have my doubts.

 

[The Big A]

The Post-War system, as designed, outsources the industrial potential to the Third World while having the US exist as a service-based consumer economy, which bankrolls and enforces the whole system via dual economic control (as the Empire controls the dollar) and military power projection. Without massive re-industrialization, we would see ourselves put in a massive bind for decades, not to mention the ramifications if the dollar lost its place as the world's reserve currency.

For what it's worth, I want the Empire dismantled as well and is on a course for collapse in any event regardless of what happens, but if there isn't any attempts made to stabilize and shift things here while we still have leverage to make it happen, it will make crawling out of the wreckage harder.

I've heard some people bring up the "Empire of Dollars" and how the empire needs to run a trade deficit to maintain the currency, and that the Petrodollar will collapse in a more mercantilist economy. What they seem to forget is that the Petrodollar is already dead, as Saudi Arabia now sells their oil in Yuan to China, the world's largest oil importer. Unless Trump plans on invading Saudi, Iran, AND Venezuela, the Petrodollar isn't coming back any time soon, and simply flooding the market with Dollars will just depreciate it's value just like any other currency.

 

[The Big A]

And what happened during Biden's term? Nothing else except the Russia Ukraine war which revealed how much graft goes into the US military-industrial complex. No one said, "Let's build more ammo factories to build more Javelins and HIMARS to compensate. It was "eh, we'll let them have 90s Abrams and a few F-16s."

So yeah, the tariffs would stay because the government loves more money from rent-seeking, but will it have the intended effect? I have my doubts.

2020 was the first recession since 1979 where manufacturing jobs recovered to and then exceeded pre-recession levels, and the manufacturing sector is still stronger after Biden than it was after Obama. I agree that the Biden admin was comically corrupt in nearly every aspect, but keeping tariffs seemed to be a prudent decision.

 

[Major von der Westfront]

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2020 was the first recession since 1979 where manufacturing jobs recovered to and then exceeded pre-recession levels, and the manufacturing sector is still stronger after Biden than it was after Obama. I agree that the Biden admin was comically corrupt in nearly every aspect, but keeping tariffs seemed to be a prudent decision.

However tariffs are not an indicator of that. Things such as the CHIPS act are likely what strengthened manufacturing because the US government would give investment opportunities ontop of subsidies.

 

[The Hardest R]

This is an actual concern that I don't see brought up compared to the usual "NO! WE NEED TEMU TO SURVIVE!" jargon. Now that keeping the economy down and making sure manufacturing never re-shores is a viable way to ensure Republican electoral defeat, I'll expect a horde of politically motivated vexatious litigants arriving at every announcement of a new factory. They will be backed by politically motivated judges who will demolish quality of life of their constituents to "own" Orange Man.

I agree. In order to make this tariff proposition work, you have to be able to make it easier to re-industrialize. This did not happen which is why I’m skeptical the tariff plan will actually work. If there was a big plan to re-industrialize, then this would make a lot more sense.

I suspect most of these tariffs will get rolled back in the coming days when we hear a bunch of announcements about investments into the country. The tariffs get rolled back and then we never hear about those investments again after the announcements.

 

[PrimeRadiant]

I always enjoy seeing sour grapes nogunz niggercattle spew this "YOU WON'T DO SHIT" stuff. It's always cowards projecting.

The ironic part is, both of you come from shitholes where you gave up everything without a fight. For the rest of your entire sniveling lives you are going to be under the boot of your authoritarian governments who are going to whip your niggercattle hides into falling in line, you are going to continue to thank them for doing so and it's YOU who hasn't and will never do shit about it.

You live in a mulatto studfarm run by Jewish oligarchs, where everything you write, say and do is recorded and sent off to NSA datafarms. A place where criticising your masters or their golems can destroy your life. Places like Canada and Australia are openly authoritarian, but the USA does it in more Jewish and passive aggressive way by outsourcing the tyranny to trannies and karens.

It became that precisely because you did nothing, despite all your guns. The truth is, the guns are a metal pacifier, nothing more. You can comfort yourselves that your guns are a last resort, but guess what? that last resort never comes and never will.

Funny thing is, antifa trannies have more courage and conviction than you. They at least are actually taking it to Tesla.

 

[The Big A]

I agree. In order to make this tariff proposition work, you have to be able to make it easier to re-industrialize. This did not happen which is why I’m skeptical the tariff plan will actually work. If there was a big plan to re-industrialize, then this would make a lot more sense.

I suspect most of these tariffs will get rolled back in the coming days when we hear a bunch of announcements about investments into the country. The tariffs get rolled back and then we never hear about those investments again after the announcements.

If the round of new deals leads to most countries dropping their restrictions/tariffs on American products, that still benefits manufacturing back home as America becomes more viable to export from.

I think we will see most of them get rolled back except for the most impactful ones of them all, China. They've outright halted all investment in the US by decree and further strengthened their own tariffs on US goods, it looks like there's a mutual interest in decoupling after the Ukraine War showed that the West will just steal anything your people own if relations get too frosty.

 

[The Gene Genie]

If the round of new deals leads to most countries dropping their restrictions/tariffs on American products, that still benefits manufacturing back home as America becomes more viable to export from.

Why would it, on a scale that would actually matter? It is a massive financial investment to reshore, since there are no buildings they can just move into. They'd have to break ground and build from scratch, while working with local, state, and federal regulations ranging from the construction itself to workers. It's an expensive process. Why would a company do all this when there's no guarantee that in four years' time (roughly when, if they broke ground at this moment, the factories would begin to open) it will even make sense from a financial standpoint to do it? Better, if you're a company that is, to ride the wave, pass the price increases onto consumers, and wait it out and see if the next Administration will do something. The only way, in my opinion, that you can get around this is by offering subsidies, but there so far hasn't been a lot of noise about this, and the kind of spending that would be required out of this would 100% need a Congressional bill to do it.

The issue with American manufacturing is not that it is being stifled by foreign competition, though it is, but rather that at this point it simply doesn't exist at-scale. Our textile industry is effectively a cottage industry most propped up by the need for the Armed Forces to have uniforms that are manufactured in the United States. How do you scale this up to replace Vietnam, Cambodia, and China, and do it in a timely fashion? You'd need massive investments, one that companies (whose philosophy is maximize shareholder value by law, by the way) are going to be averse to doing.

 

[Wax]

You live in a mulatto studfarm run by Jewish oligarchs, where everything you write, say and do is recorded and sent off to NSA datafarms. A place where criticising your masters or their golems can destroy your life. Places like Canada and Australia are openly authoritarian, but the USA does it in more Jewish and passive aggressive way by outsourcing the tyranny to trannies and karens.

"My oppressive shithole is getting worse by the day, my situation is hopeless and without fighting back me and my cowardly countrymen have given away any means of liberty, but at least it doesn't have as many jews. I also have race mixing on the mind btw".

You are not only projecting but also wrong. I can call a black a nigger, a jews a kike, a mexican a spic, a tranny a tranny, and everything else under the sun and I will never be arrested for it. They can try to make life difficult for me, but I won't be jailed, gagged, or disappeared for it. You cannot say the same.

It became that precisely because you did nothing, despite all your guns. The truth is, the guns are a metal pacifier, nothing more. You can comfort yourselves that your guns are a last resort, but guess what? that last resort never comes and never will.

Free states (i.e. red states) actively fight against the globohomo shit you complain about. Hell, it's outright illegal in a lot of places. It's even being dismantled by the current federal government. I don't have to use my guns because the legal system of my government is taking care of it. Recently, some dyke teacher at a school near me tried making students read LGBT books, they fired her and the state government took away her teaching license. When has something like that ever happened in your shithole?

You can call a gun a metal pacifier all you want, but politicians do fear it and it's why yours walk all over you.
1. Because they know you have nothing to fight them with
2. Because they know you're cowardly docile niggercattle who wouldn't dare to speak up against them

You gave away any hope of liberty for a small amount of security. Your contempt for the american gunowner is simply sour grapes.

By the way, it did come to a last resort once, it was called the American Civil War.

Funny thing is, antifa trannies have more courage and conviction than you. They at least are actually taking it to Tesla.

"Mentally ill retarded niggercattle committing acts of violence and terrorism for reasons they don't really understand are actually courageous".
I cannot even imagine having the kind of mindset to think this.

I want to give you the benefit of the doubt and say you're trolling but I think you're actually serious.

 

[oh no its pipkun]

Why would it, on a scale that would actually matter? It is a massive financial investment to reshore, since there are no buildings they can just move into. They'd have to break ground and build from scratch, while working with local, state, and federal regulations ranging from the construction itself to workers. It's an expensive process. Why would a company do all this when there's no guarantee that in four years' time (roughly when, if they broke ground at this moment, the factories would begin to open) it will even make sense from a financial standpoint to do it? Better, if you're a company that is, to ride the wave, pass the price increases onto consumers, and wait it out and see if the next Administration will do something. The only way, in my opinion, that you can get around this is by offering subsidies, but there so far hasn't been a lot of noise about this, and the kind of spending that would be required out of this would 100% need a Congressional bill to do it.

The issue with American manufacturing is not that it is being stifled by foreign competition, though it is, but rather that at this point it simply doesn't exist at-scale. Our textile industry is effectively a cottage industry most propped up by the need for the Armed Forces to have uniforms that are manufactured in the United States. How do you scale this up to replace Vietnam, Cambodia, and China, and do it in a timely fashion? You'd need massive investments, one that companies (whose philosophy is maximize shareholder value by law, by the way) are going to be averse to doing.

This is gonna be a 10-20 year commitment and trump only has 4. and if the tariffs stick around for the 30-45 days after april 9th, there is no vance in 2028.

 

[PermaLurker69]

Alright 10 pages in and the thread has degraded to a shit flinging contest again.

I'll see yall again in the 2026 economic collapse thread.

 

[Otterly]

The truth is, the guns are a metal pacifier, nothing more.

And yet America has free speech and we are rounded up for opinions. Guns and an armed populace are how you keep your freedom.
So assuming there’s a stock meltdown later today, what’s the average pleb to do to protect themselves and maybe profit?
I have our mortgage coming up for renewal soon (UK mortgages are not fixed for life sadly.)
How do we see the effects of this playing out on this side of the pond? What’s it going to do to interest rates and mortgages, and is it a good time to open a stocks account when things hit bottom?

 

[Vecr]

So assuming there’s a stock meltdown later today, what’s the average pleb to do to protect themselves and maybe profit?

No clue. You aren't American, so you can't hold US T-bills safely. Sell everything and hold some ratio of US dollars to UK pounds?

 

[Otterly]

No clue. You aren't American, so you can't hold US T-bills safely. Sell everything and hold some ratio of US dollars to UK pounds?

Don’t really have anything to sell. Just have a mortgage coming up for renegotiation and wondered if it’s better to try to do it sooner rather than later. Would a stock market crash send rates up or down?
Starmer will probably abolish private property anyway at some point so it may be moot

 

[Vecr]

Would a stock market crash send rates up or down?

I don't know enough macroeconomics for that. The traditional answer is that they'd go down, but if the UK stays in the 10% tariff bracket and doesn't impose retaliatory tariffs, maybe they'd pick up whatever crazy happens in the US? The situation is enough of a disaster that the models need to be re-done from scratch.

 

[YHWH's Strongest Soldier]

Would a stock market crash send rates up or down?

2008 initially sent them up until quantitative easing became a thing. After 1987, they fell. Whether the response is the same this time (which I doubt because the institutions needed for a soft landing are being gutted), nobody can truly predict. This is not an exact science, but the rule of thumb is that the middle class usually gets fucked over. You can buy rice and beans and celebrate freedom, I guess.

 

[Gerelatha]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash

we have a wiki page now boys

 

[khaine]

Why are the Americans obliged to give you money? If you're from one of the countries in the 10% group, I'm annoyed you weren't fucked harder.

Cunt, I know you have a small brain, but hopefully this mathematician uses simple enough words for you to understand how retarded the trump administration is.

You really do live up to your name.

 

[Male Idiot]

He should have gutted the EPA fully if he wants new factories. Gut local rights to protest, ban strikes, ban zoning, etc, and maybe he could have gotten a few factories back.

 

[Otterly]

He should have gutted the EPA fully if he wants new factories. Gut local rights to protest, ban strikes, ban zoning, etc, and maybe he could have gotten a few factories back.

I know the EPA has issues, but good environmental protection is something I want to see. In the uk we have this insane situation where the water companies are just pumping raw sewage into waterways and beaches that were previously clean enough to swim in, and it’s hideous.
The EPA and bodies like it need reform, so they have the teeth to stop and prosecute people destroying places, while the really fucking stupid stuff like cow farts can be ignored