The Technological Singularity

[Flabba Wabba Jabba]

IMO I expect we won't see any serious jump in technology and progression towards a singularity until quantum computing becomes a thing and lets us resume scaling vertically rather than laterally.

Quantum computing will forever stay as a research/complex compute field. I firmly believe services like AWS and Azure will only offer it to select customers for very complex, high dimensional data workloads. There's no feasible way right now to get it working with the very strenuous and complex cooling requirements.

3D integration for CPU transistors might prove to be the way forward. We just have these little cube CPUs that are trillions/quadrillions of transistors. Heat is also a big concern, but not something as absurd like liquid nitrogen.

 

[grump]

There is no reason to believe humanity can't be upgraded along with their tech.

There is no guarantee that potential technological progress in AI is infinite. What do they even expect? That AI IQ is going to double every year forever? Perhaps but really thats beyond anyone's ability to predict for sure.

Even if it was potentially it doesn't mean its going to happen in x timeframe or without stops and starts.