I do admire your hope OP, and I don't necessarily disagree on any of your points but I just can't shake the pessimistic feeling that what will happen is that once SHTF is that terriblefeeling that the elites won't lose their power. They will either crack down, or just be replaced with someone else. Human beings can be very selfish fearful people, and for every modern person that knows how to grow their own food, create their own tools, be self sufficient, and perhaps most importantly have a close knit community to help you with those things you also have thousands that don't.
What does this mean? Well we already know. People will look towards leaders that can promise them safety and security even at the cost of their own freedom. Either we have the current elites with even more control over our lives, or new faces that are just as power hungry and sociopathic as what we have now. There's a very good chance they won't be the type of leaders you want either.
So many people, myself included just would die or have very shitty lives if we were thrown into pre-industrial society. I'm at least starting to prepare for the future, but so so many are ignorant of what may come to pass, and by the time they realize what's happening it's too late.
This is especially true for my generation and younger millennials. If you talk to a lot of people in my age range (20-25) you will notice a lot don't have many qualms with authoritarianism against their enemies. I could go on about this but you get my point already I think.
I may be misreading what you are meaning OP. Are you saying the collapse of modern industrial society is inevitable and we must look to the past to survive it? How would this happen without complete total collapse of our modern world in first world nations? I don't want to even begin to imagine the hell-scape fragile food importing nations will become.
I admit that my optimism relies on a lot of
hope and
faith. Mainly I'm betting on the fall being more slow and gradual. The coming depression might likely be a big drop down though.
The gradual decline will definitely be different across the world. Most of Africa will probably be hell (parts of Asia too). Luckily for Americans they have a built in cultural myth for government eventually becoming tyrannical and thus needing to collapse. East Europe already has gone though the fall of USSR and thus have some cultural understandings how to deal with a decline and that collective ideologies are bad.
However, I see West Europe selling themselves easily to new collective totalitarian systems. They have much denser populations than rest of the west and are much more socialized to trust whatever their government says. They are most likely to retain the same central governing complex.
I imagine rest of the west gradually decentralizing and building paralles smaller societies. Probably managed by modern equivalent of local warlords which would be like little mafia states.
Just hope you get a Mafia scenario than an African warlord one.
Ether way, I say anyone's best chance is getting out of the heat that will be big complex urban areas.
I also don't think farm owner purges will happen like in the forming of USSR. That was more of a symbolic stunt since the movement was based on the resentment of the poor farmers. Farmers were the vast majority of Russia's population. In most modern countries they are like 1/10 and people generally think they already live poor post-apocalyptical lives. So I don't see them being scape-goated as much as many other elite minority groups.
Also maybe, aim at not living on a big farmland if you don't plan on utilizing it for feeding more than yourself. I imagine those are most likely to be collectivized if it comes to that. In general I'll try to gradually set up a low profile lifestyle and try to slip though the cracks of history (as
@beet644 wrote).
Unless there is a nuclear war, you'll be fine.
My grandparents genuinely thought, and were told repeatedly by the powers that be, that there would be an atomic war within their lifetimes. They had good reason to believe that. They were grown during WWII, they hosted soldiers in their home when those soldiers were on the way to train for an actual world war.
They built a bomb shelter because they wanted to protect their kids from inevitable radiation disease. Filled it with canned goods and bunk beds.
The world went on, mutually assured destruction was what it is, the canned goods spoiled, the bomb shelter filled with water, algae, snakes, and mosquitoes, and my grandparents and most of their children died natural deaths.
I'm optimistic.
If we scale out, I can pick anecdotal examples from how Romans believed to live in an immortal society and similarly Egyptians before the bronze collapse.
Their declines happened gradually and imperceptibly for the average person.
I'm too placing my bets on world
not ending in nukes, because that is a limit of my optimism and I don't see wasting energy on surviving if I'm not rich enough to buy an actual fallout bunker.
However, it hasn't taken nukes to make gas, property and medical care a lot less affordable since the times of our grandparents. Even now we are globally being told to prepare for an even more ascetic compromises in the future. I only see the trajectory going one way.
Once again, I'm mainly pointing at the coming century not the decade for the decline to take place in. (however the economic depression will probably really suck too.)
Our species has always muddled along. The horrors many people have faced in the last two centuries will never be something you will endure.
Stop being a pussy.
That is exactly the point of this thread. Did you even read the very first sentence of the original post?