- Joined
- Apr 18, 2021
Alright ladies and gentlemen. Sit back, relax and grab yourselves a nice bowl of popcorn and a steaming cup of delicious Ovaltine because we are heading into an unprecedented year of begging that we haven't seen for a few years. This year may end up being one of the worst years for DSP both financially and professionally. I'm here to explain why since I haven't seen anyone mention it in detail yet.
With Twitch removing DSP from the Partner program, Phil no longer has a "fixed" or "stable" amount of income flowing into his bank account each mid-month. With all the sub gifting the past year, he was generally sitting at 700-900 subs per month. For the sake of simplicity, I will say 800 subs at $2.50 a pop (there is speculation that he received a bigger cut since he was a Twitch partner. Some say $3.00 or even $3.50 per sub, but I'll go with the more conservative number of $2.50 for now), which equals $2,000 per month in sub revenue. Cheering day-to-day varied greatly, so let's just assume he averaged 2,000 bits per day, which is $20 per day in cheers alone. 30 days per month puts his average revenue from cheering at $600 per month. I have no idea how much a Twitch partner would make from ad revenue in any given month since it varies so much with viewership and seasons (think Christmas time), but I'd assume it would be much less than subscribers and cheering. For the sake of simplicity, I will go with $400 per month in Twitch ad revenue. This puts Phil's Twitch partnership revenue at an even $3,000 per month. I am going with a very conservative number to prove how fucked he is financially even at these levels. He is even more fucked if my estimates are much lower than what he actually made month-to-month.
So now Phil has to recuperate about $3,000 per month in revenue. $3,000 divided by 30 days per month equals to $100 per day. Essentially, Phil has to make at least an extra $100 in tips per day to make as much money as he did as a partner. This is "only" an extra $50 in tips on average per stream that he needs to make up. Now the question we all have to ask: Is this achievable by Phil? In the short-term as we have seen on a few streams thus far, most definitely yes. Right now he is expecting an extra $100 per stream ($200 per day) in tips, which suggests he knows he is fucked in the long-term, which is why he is asking for nearly double my estimate up front.
Let's assume Phil makes exactly $150 in tips each stream. At 12 streams per week, this puts his tips revenue at $1,800 per week. 52 weeks in a year equals "only" $93,600 in pre-tax income for Phil. Assuming exactly $200 in tips each stream bumps that number up to a "paltry" $124,800 in pre-tax income, which is what Phil is actually expecting his viewers to give him for streaming.
This leads to two very big problems for Phil:
1) Can Phil's current whales keep up that level support over the year? Also, are they even willing to? At this point, Phil probably only has whales numbering in the single-digits left. Some say as low as 3 or 4. I say he maybe has 9 hardcore big time pig time whales left at his disposal. Outside of the more public facing whales like OIC and Jaxx, I'm sure there are still mod(s) and/or longtime YT viewer(s) that give him behind the scenes contributions that we will never know about. With Phil lashing out and recently banning a lot of his more ironic and trollish contributors and viewers such as major_riot, pwdubz, rattybag, etc., things start to look even more grim for Phil. Not only do the whales have to make up for the missing Twitch partner income, they will also inevitably have to make up for the loss of income from the mini-whales that inevitably leave or step out of line like major_riot and end up banned by Phil. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume Phil received $20 per stream from his ironic viewers, the whales will now have to make up this extra lost money. Keep in mind, they were already contributing anywhere from 50% to 90% of the tips goal per stream. Now, they are going to have to contribute much more.
Let's assume Phil has 10 whales left. On average, each one would have to tip $20 per stream in order to reach the arbitrary $200 tips goal per stream. At 2 streams per day, they will have to tip $40 per day. 6 days of streaming per week equals $240 for each whale weekly. A 30-day month equals $600 for each whale. My question is: Can and are the whales willing to support their master this much. I guess only time will tell. All it takes is for one or two whales to wash up and the burden becomes heavier for the others. If one whales leaves and stops contributing, the other whales will have to contribute about 11% more each month to reach the same $ amount in tips. Whales leaving leads up to problem 2 for Phil, and it's a very big problem if it were to occur again.
2) CHARGEBACKS
For those who don't know how charging back on PayPal works, I will inform you. Buyers may take action by opening a dispute through PayPal or by asking their credit card issuer to make a clarification and reverse the charge (credit card companies call this a “chargeback”). Disputes and chargebacks have the same net effect – a hold is placed on the sale’s funds – but their resolution processes are slightly different. PayPal does not initiate or handle chargebacks – the buyer's credit card issuer does. So that process follows the issuer’s policies. PayPal also does not judge the validity of a chargeback; that’s the responsibility of the card issuer. PayPal's role is to simply collect information about the transaction and help you work with the card company to resolve the chargeback. There are a few general timeframes you should be familiar with:
- Buyers can file chargebacks 180 days or more after an order’s been placed.
- If you receive a chargeback, you’ll have 10 days to answer it.
- Chargebacks are usually resolved in a few weeks, but they can take 75 days or more in some instances.
1) The buyer requests a chargeback from their credit card company.
2) The credit card company notifies our merchant bank and withdraws the funds from PayPal.
3) PayPal places a hold on your (the seller’s) funds related to the chargeback.
4) PayPal immediately notifies you via email and requests information that could help to dispute the chargeback.
Note: This is from PayPal's official site and contradicts many things Phil has said over the years regarding chargebacks, but that's not the point of this post.
Example: Now, let's say one of Phil's whale decides that they are finally fed up with his shit and decide to leave. Instead of leaving peacefully though, they end up charging back $1,000 that they tipped over 3 months. This would immediately place a hold of $1,000 on Phil's PayPal account. Knowing Phil, he doesn't have $1,000 in his account to cover this hold since the money he receives is gone the same night he receives it for "bills". Depending on how much money is in his account, the amount that he "owes" PayPal is anywhere from $1 (if he had $999 in his PayPal account) to $1,000 (if he had $0 in his PayPal account, which is probably more likely than not).
For the sake of simplicity, I will go with $500. Essentially, Phil has a negative balance in his PayPal account of $500. When you have a negative balance in your PayPal account, PayPal wants you to resolve it immediately, or they will attempt to resolve it themselves by withdrawing money from your primary source in PayPal whether it be a linked checking account, debit card, etc. Phil would have to deposit money into his PayPal account immediately to cover this balance. Also knowing Phil, his checking account through his actual bank is most likely near empty. If PayPal draws from his bank account to cover the negative balance, it would most likely overdraw Phil's checking account, which leads to another negative balance and overdraft fees of $10-$40 per EACH transaction depending on his bank. PayPal also does not allow you to unlink any primary sources such as a checking account, debit card, etc. when you have a negative PayPal balance, so those overdraft fees can start to pile up for Phil.
With Twitch revoking Phil's partnership, Phil's primary source of income (I'd say at least 90%) has become tips via PayPal. Phil literally cannot afford to receive chargebacks of the same caliber as he claims he received last Fall or he is doomed. I have more to say regarding this matter, but this post is already long enough. I will take the time this weekend to formulate more cohesive thoughts and ideas that link everything together.
With Twitch removing DSP from the Partner program, Phil no longer has a "fixed" or "stable" amount of income flowing into his bank account each mid-month. With all the sub gifting the past year, he was generally sitting at 700-900 subs per month. For the sake of simplicity, I will say 800 subs at $2.50 a pop (there is speculation that he received a bigger cut since he was a Twitch partner. Some say $3.00 or even $3.50 per sub, but I'll go with the more conservative number of $2.50 for now), which equals $2,000 per month in sub revenue. Cheering day-to-day varied greatly, so let's just assume he averaged 2,000 bits per day, which is $20 per day in cheers alone. 30 days per month puts his average revenue from cheering at $600 per month. I have no idea how much a Twitch partner would make from ad revenue in any given month since it varies so much with viewership and seasons (think Christmas time), but I'd assume it would be much less than subscribers and cheering. For the sake of simplicity, I will go with $400 per month in Twitch ad revenue. This puts Phil's Twitch partnership revenue at an even $3,000 per month. I am going with a very conservative number to prove how fucked he is financially even at these levels. He is even more fucked if my estimates are much lower than what he actually made month-to-month.
So now Phil has to recuperate about $3,000 per month in revenue. $3,000 divided by 30 days per month equals to $100 per day. Essentially, Phil has to make at least an extra $100 in tips per day to make as much money as he did as a partner. This is "only" an extra $50 in tips on average per stream that he needs to make up. Now the question we all have to ask: Is this achievable by Phil? In the short-term as we have seen on a few streams thus far, most definitely yes. Right now he is expecting an extra $100 per stream ($200 per day) in tips, which suggests he knows he is fucked in the long-term, which is why he is asking for nearly double my estimate up front.
Let's assume Phil makes exactly $150 in tips each stream. At 12 streams per week, this puts his tips revenue at $1,800 per week. 52 weeks in a year equals "only" $93,600 in pre-tax income for Phil. Assuming exactly $200 in tips each stream bumps that number up to a "paltry" $124,800 in pre-tax income, which is what Phil is actually expecting his viewers to give him for streaming.
This leads to two very big problems for Phil:
1) Can Phil's current whales keep up that level support over the year? Also, are they even willing to? At this point, Phil probably only has whales numbering in the single-digits left. Some say as low as 3 or 4. I say he maybe has 9 hardcore big time pig time whales left at his disposal. Outside of the more public facing whales like OIC and Jaxx, I'm sure there are still mod(s) and/or longtime YT viewer(s) that give him behind the scenes contributions that we will never know about. With Phil lashing out and recently banning a lot of his more ironic and trollish contributors and viewers such as major_riot, pwdubz, rattybag, etc., things start to look even more grim for Phil. Not only do the whales have to make up for the missing Twitch partner income, they will also inevitably have to make up for the loss of income from the mini-whales that inevitably leave or step out of line like major_riot and end up banned by Phil. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume Phil received $20 per stream from his ironic viewers, the whales will now have to make up this extra lost money. Keep in mind, they were already contributing anywhere from 50% to 90% of the tips goal per stream. Now, they are going to have to contribute much more.
Let's assume Phil has 10 whales left. On average, each one would have to tip $20 per stream in order to reach the arbitrary $200 tips goal per stream. At 2 streams per day, they will have to tip $40 per day. 6 days of streaming per week equals $240 for each whale weekly. A 30-day month equals $600 for each whale. My question is: Can and are the whales willing to support their master this much. I guess only time will tell. All it takes is for one or two whales to wash up and the burden becomes heavier for the others. If one whales leaves and stops contributing, the other whales will have to contribute about 11% more each month to reach the same $ amount in tips. Whales leaving leads up to problem 2 for Phil, and it's a very big problem if it were to occur again.
2) CHARGEBACKS
For those who don't know how charging back on PayPal works, I will inform you. Buyers may take action by opening a dispute through PayPal or by asking their credit card issuer to make a clarification and reverse the charge (credit card companies call this a “chargeback”). Disputes and chargebacks have the same net effect – a hold is placed on the sale’s funds – but their resolution processes are slightly different. PayPal does not initiate or handle chargebacks – the buyer's credit card issuer does. So that process follows the issuer’s policies. PayPal also does not judge the validity of a chargeback; that’s the responsibility of the card issuer. PayPal's role is to simply collect information about the transaction and help you work with the card company to resolve the chargeback. There are a few general timeframes you should be familiar with:
- Buyers can file chargebacks 180 days or more after an order’s been placed.
- If you receive a chargeback, you’ll have 10 days to answer it.
- Chargebacks are usually resolved in a few weeks, but they can take 75 days or more in some instances.
1) The buyer requests a chargeback from their credit card company.
2) The credit card company notifies our merchant bank and withdraws the funds from PayPal.
3) PayPal places a hold on your (the seller’s) funds related to the chargeback.
4) PayPal immediately notifies you via email and requests information that could help to dispute the chargeback.
Note: This is from PayPal's official site and contradicts many things Phil has said over the years regarding chargebacks, but that's not the point of this post.
Example: Now, let's say one of Phil's whale decides that they are finally fed up with his shit and decide to leave. Instead of leaving peacefully though, they end up charging back $1,000 that they tipped over 3 months. This would immediately place a hold of $1,000 on Phil's PayPal account. Knowing Phil, he doesn't have $1,000 in his account to cover this hold since the money he receives is gone the same night he receives it for "bills". Depending on how much money is in his account, the amount that he "owes" PayPal is anywhere from $1 (if he had $999 in his PayPal account) to $1,000 (if he had $0 in his PayPal account, which is probably more likely than not).
For the sake of simplicity, I will go with $500. Essentially, Phil has a negative balance in his PayPal account of $500. When you have a negative balance in your PayPal account, PayPal wants you to resolve it immediately, or they will attempt to resolve it themselves by withdrawing money from your primary source in PayPal whether it be a linked checking account, debit card, etc. Phil would have to deposit money into his PayPal account immediately to cover this balance. Also knowing Phil, his checking account through his actual bank is most likely near empty. If PayPal draws from his bank account to cover the negative balance, it would most likely overdraw Phil's checking account, which leads to another negative balance and overdraft fees of $10-$40 per EACH transaction depending on his bank. PayPal also does not allow you to unlink any primary sources such as a checking account, debit card, etc. when you have a negative PayPal balance, so those overdraft fees can start to pile up for Phil.
With Twitch revoking Phil's partnership, Phil's primary source of income (I'd say at least 90%) has become tips via PayPal. Phil literally cannot afford to receive chargebacks of the same caliber as he claims he received last Fall or he is doomed. I have more to say regarding this matter, but this post is already long enough. I will take the time this weekend to formulate more cohesive thoughts and ideas that link everything together.
and Khet's tears, yesterday's night stream made it all worth it. It was pure, unadulterated, AUTHENTIC ITAHLIEN Phil. Mask off, no need to pretend that he cares about vests, jeans, gunner glasses, cowboy hats, it's all just a bunch of "stupid shit". No need to care about the idiots in chat anymore now that they can't send bitch ears. Those who won't switch from bitch ears to tipping on Paypal get berated, mocked, shittalked, humiliated. The struggle session Major Riot had to endure was something else, even Mao would think that Dave and the retard mod brigade took things too far with it 
