Science Autism up 787% in the past 20 years

Background​

Autism spectrum disorder is a diagnosis that is increasingly applied; however, previous studies have conflicting findings whether rates of diagnosis rates continue to grow in the UK. This study tested whether the proportion of people receiving a new autism diagnosis has been increasing over a twenty-year period, both overall and by subgroups.

Method​

Population-based study utilizing the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care database, which contains patients registered with practices contributing data to the CPRD between 1998 and 2018 (N = 6,786,212 in 1998 to N = 9,594,598 in 201. 65,665 patients had a diagnosis of autism recorded in 2018.

Time trend of new (incident) cases of autism diagnosis was plotted for all, and stratified by gender, diagnostic subtypes, and developmental stage: infancy and preschool, 0–5 years old; childhood, 6–11 years old; adolescence, 12–19 years old; adults, over 19 years old.

Results​

There was a 787%, exponential increase in recorded incidence of autism diagnoses between 1998 and 2018; R2 = 0.98, exponentiated coefficient = 1.07, 95% CI [1.06, 1.08], p < .001. The increase in diagnoses was greater for females than males (exponentiated interaction coefficient = 1.02, 95% CI [1.01, 1.03], p < .001) and moderated by age band, with the greatest rises in diagnostic incidence among adults (exponentiated interaction coefficient = 1.06, 95% CI [1.04, 1.07], p < .001).

SOURCE

 

[ColtWalker1847]

Study is meaningless without some outlandish claim of what is causing it.

No, them just loosening up the diagnostic criteria isn't sexy enough.

 

[BobbyBriggs69420]

web 1.0 Internet forums started getting big in the late 90s...

 

[ToroidalBoat]

"Better detection" clearly isn't the explanation for why there's such a huge increase in autism.

I think the modern world - especially in Current Year - is a breeding ground for mental illness.

 

[Ged!]

It's so obvious - autism is the next step in human evolution.

Varg was right all along.

 

[Getting tard comed]

Hmm, if only there was something that happened in the early 2000's that might help explain this. Something that happens at a young age that maybe was increased in quantity and maybe rapidity in application? Maybe something happened 10-20 years ago before that that made it harder for certain companies to be liable for products they produced?

Too bad, nothing like that happened at all. NosireeBob. Nothing at all and anyone who thinks it might be something to look at is obviously a crazy tinfoil hat heretic conspiracy theorist that ignores SCIENCE.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

"Better detection" clearly isn't the explanation for why there's such a huge increase in autism.

I think the modern world - especially in Current Year - is a breeding ground for mental illness.

You have a singlicious satisfact to snack that up?

Autism may be up 700%, but ghosts in the blood requiring strict cocaine regimens are down 100% from the 1800s.

 

[WeWuzFinns]

There are infinite reasons for this but I would estimate it to be
~80% over diagnoses
~20% rising mutations

 

[Dysnomia]

How many of these diagnoses are just "Your kid is a little awkward and has attention span problems"? I'd agree it seems to be an increasing problem. But maybe making it such a wide spectrum was a mistake.

 

[Vince McMahon]

Sometimes I think that certain people are right about A&H and a lot of you are boomers, if not in age but in worldview.

"Better detection" clearly isn't the explanation for why there's such a huge increase in autism.

I think the modern world - especially in Current Year - is a breeding ground for mental illness.

Autism is a neurological disorder that may be presented with co-morbidities like mental illnesses, it's not a mental illness in itself, despite what edgy kids may say.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

How many of these diagnoses are just "Your kid is a little awkward and has attention span problems"? I'd agree it seems to be an increasing problem. But maybe making it such a wide spectrum was a mistake.

Asperger's is now ASD. Moreover early detection and better education provider training is making the numbers go up. This is unironically a good thing, because aspies can get early intervention which can drastically increase their quality of life.

 

[Resident Evil]

I’m gonna be devil’s advocates and propose that just maybe people are more open to get a diagnoses and the reason rates are so high is because we’re finally getting accurate population assessment. But of the same token, it’s just as likely that doctors would lessen the requirements to meet to be deemed autistic in order to be done with it and not further look into exactly what’s wrong. It‘s starting with high and low function now simply being called spectrum, and Asperger‘s pretty much being erased from most modern vernacular.

I do believe overall that this is a result to just people being more open with it, but of the same token, more openness leads to more easy acceptance of results that just might be wrong. There is comfort in easy solution for something as troubling as this. It’s detrimental to those misdiagnosed and those who are.

 

[NekoRightsActivist]

It's actually a good thing, just think about it - if CWC was diagnosed early with right intervention, he wouldn't end up being a total failure like what he is now.

 

[Meat Target]

This is our planet now. Hope you like trains and anime.

 

[StarDreamer2002]

Autism up 787% in the past 20 years ​

They say that like it were a bad thing.

 

[Pork Packer]

I'm sensing something of a "recorded earthquakes increased by 1000% after earthquake recording devices and practices were invented and standardized" phenomena at work here.

All that is different now is that all those who were once called "eccentric" or "odd" or "flamboyant" or who were seen and treated as village idiots or such are now given the autist designation, along with all those who would have died at birth/early childhood or been swiftly thrown into some kind of bedlam proto-asylum.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

Hmm, if only there was something that happened in the early 2000's that might help explain this. Something that happens at a young age that maybe was increased in quantity and maybe rapidity in application? Maybe something happened 10-20 years ago before that that made it harder for certain companies to be liable for products they produced?

Too bad, nothing like that happened at all. NosireeBob. Nothing at all and anyone who thinks it might be something to look at is obviously a crazy tinfoil hat heretic conspiracy theorist that ignores SCIENCE.

I agree. The production of cartoons and animated media must be banned immediately.

 

[TowinKarz]

I'm sure this has nothing to do with the fact it's just easier (and more lawyer-friendly) to give misbehaving kids in school ritalin and diagnose them as autistic instead of telling them to sit down and shut up or they'll get a time out and actually following through.

Also, having medication that official treats (and "treats") things means you can now diagnose for it and have a plan instead of just telling the patient "You're fucked"

It's pretty much all overdiagnosis, spurred on by the ability to sell more pills (either in an honest belief you're helping or a cynical desire for sales commissions)

 

[A Cardboard Box]

I'm sure this has nothing to do with the fact it's just easier (and more lawyer-friendly) to give misbehaving kids in school ritalin and diagnose them as autistic instead of telling them to sit down and shut up or they'll get a time out and actually following through.

You don't give kids with autism Ritalin. Additionally beating kids doesn't make them behave better.

Additionally, please stop eating cheese, don't you see what you're doing?!

 

[Don't Tread on Me]

It says the increase is mostly in women. So it likely has more to do with single parenthood rising as that means less face time with Mommy, which girls got more of anyway. Less interaction at early stages = less opportunity for socialization