Manchin would be an absolute idiot if he jumped ship.
Right now he can write his own ticket. Everyone has to come to him for anything and Dem operatives and MSM cant destroy him with real or imagined dirt because they’d cost themselves control of the Senate in doing so. If he were to defect, they’d crucify him over it. He wouldn’t just be cancelled, him and his entire family would be ruined. And for what? To hand the keys over to McConnell who’s more than willing to deal anyway? Nah, Manchin is going to stay right where he’s at and he’ll vote to pass this bullshit once the Dems get desperate enough to pay him enough for his vote because he knows as well as everyone else that the Dems NEED this win to bolster the Admin’s numbers and feed into their narrative going into Election ‘22. The longer he holds out, the bigger his payday becomes.