2021 Virginia State election - Federal Beaurocracy and National Establishment vs. Everyone else.

StarkRavingMad said:
Exit polls are rarely helpful in accurately predicting the outcome of an election these days, as much as I would like to say the opposite at this point (given how I like those numbers I'm seeing right now, lol).

I very much remember them being very wrong in 2000, 2004, 2016, 2018, 2020, etc ...

The fact of the matter is that people who are vocal about their politics are the ones who partake in exit polling. The vast majority of people just want to go in, do the thing, and then get the hell back to work or their home.
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The only time I've ever seen exit polling be right is the 2018(?) UK election, but that was an overwhelming victory
 
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Rusty Crab said:
The only time I've ever seen exit polling be right is the 2018(?) UK election, but that was an overwhelming victory
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I mean, it would be nice if Youngkin is in for an overwhelming win (given the exit polling) ... But reality is reality. Virginia appears to be purple at best right now.

This is going to be a close race.
 
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April Ryan said:
Americans shitting on exit polling is baffling to me in the UK, as over here the exit poll is concidered the gold standard and after it is anounced straght after the polls close many treat it as the final result and can go to bed.
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very simply put, we have a lot of fuckery with our elections and with each passing year the security gets weaker.
 
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April Ryan said:
Americans shitting on exit polling is baffling to me in the UK, as over here the exit poll is concidered the gold standard and after it is anounced straght after the polls close many treat it as the final result and can go to bed.
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Different countries, different mindsets.
In the US, polls in general are viewed as annoying. There's a huge response bias - i.e. you don't get actual data from the general population, just data from people interested in taking polls.
 
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Exit polling is usually shit but are the only things we have right now. According to exit polling, the approval ratings were:
Trump- 41%
Youngkin- 53%
McAuliffe- 44%

Age of voters
18-29: 9%
30-44: 22%
45-64: 43%
65+: 27%

This is according to CNN exit polling, take it with a mountain of salt as exit polling is usually trash but it is all we have right now.
 
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HumanHive said:
Different countries, different mindsets.
In the US, polls in general are viewed as annoying. There's a huge response bias - i.e. you don't get actual data from the general population, just data from people interested in taking polls.
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On top of that, the amount of spam and scam calls we get would blow your fucking mind. Most people no longer even answer their phone unless they recognize the number. This alone skews the results heavily.
 
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Alright ladies and gentlemen. The time has come to see which side of the spectrum outrages on Twitter after today. Get your popcorn and large coke ready.
 
Not in Virginia, but voted in a county-level election today.

State and local politics are, IMO, more important. That's where issues affect you directly, where you have the most influence, and where grassroots shit happens.

National politics is mostly theater; an autistic thunderdome that generates more heat than light.
 
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April Ryan said:
Americans shitting on exit polling is baffling to me in the UK, as over here the exit poll is concidered the gold standard and after it is anounced straght after the polls close many treat it as the final result and can go to bed.
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Americans have a long history of political machine politics. Nobody really believes the polls here since we generally assume they are weighted to get the result desired. For example, the exit poller could ask only people wearing masks who they voted for and be guaranteed to predict an overwhelming Democrat win. They can then use that to back up the miracle of 10,000 unsigned extra ballots magically showing up at the last minute.

This stuff has always gone on in America mind you, but in recent years it's become particularly noxious as our elections continue to become winner takes all between two diametrically opposed cultures.
 
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Hmm, now where have I seen this movie before?

Screenshot_20211102-180131_DuckDuckGo.jpg
 
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Alright, here's where the fun begins. Polls closed and info will be coming in throughout the night.
 
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