The final month of 2021, weather trumped demand to provide year-end fuel in the markets. And Garrett Toay of
AgTraderTalk says weather continues to drive prices this week.
“It's still weather,” says Toay. “The demand is going to come if these production cuts keep coming.”
The cuts to which Toay is referring is the most recent crop estimates coming from South America. Two estimates just this week show a 13 to 14 million metric ton cut to Brazilian soybeans, all due to weather concerns.
“We've got soybean prices that are nearing $14. And all of a sudden, we're looking at global soybean supplies, or at least the South American supply situation, that's now looking at a year-over-year decline rather than a year over year increase,” he adds.
He says if the South American crop comes in shorter than expectations, that will hep the U.S. Supply and Demand balance sheet, even as U.S. soybean exports continue to lag.
“And the focus from the Chinese, for the near term is on South America,” he adds. “January, February, March new crop is off American supplies. But ultimately, if the soybean crop continues to drop in South America, it’s going to drive some demand back to the U.S. on the export front in July, August, September timeframe. So, the focus is still focused on weather and focused on the beginning of the year money flows.”