US Joe Biden News Megathread - The Other Biden Derangement Syndrome Thread (with a side order of Fauci Derangement Syndrome)

Let's pretend for one moment that he does die before the election, just for the funsies. What happens then? Will the nomination revert to option number 2, aka Bernie Sanders? Or will his running mate automatically replace him just the way Vice-President is supposted to step in after the Big Man in the White House chokes on a piece of matzo? Does he even have a running mate yet?

 

[Smithfield Ham]

Nancy Pelosi is proof that the Bible is correct that women should never be political leaders,

Not to go off-topic, but Deborah was a Judge in ancient Israel.

 

[Nate Scully 025]

Also, to add more context to why that particular number of 11 is so important. While the national polling is all kinds of fucked for the raw numbers, trends can still be seen clearly through them. Now, Democrats usually do actually trend behind Republicans for voter enthusiasm. But it's normally mixed in with Republicans dying off and a very strong independent caucus that goes towards Democrats.

Normally, the difference is about 1-2 for Republicans and using the same polling, with the independents breaking for Democrats rather than the 50/50 the numbers assume.

But 11? That's insurmountable. Even if every single Non-Aligned broke Democrat it wouldn't even come close.

How much do you think is caused just by the current Admin, and how much is ‘just’ by the pendulum finally swinging back towards the Right? As in, are these likely to be short term gains/loses just because of how incompetent the current Admin is, or is there a core of people finally waking up and actually going ‘wait, hold on a fucking second, you’re doing what?‘? The numbers seem very good, but my experience with actively following polls is somewhat limited, so I’m not certain about the deeper implications of this.

 

[X Prime]

That was actually the club i support. Arsenal, they distanced themself away a player called Mesut Ozil who at the time was our best player and one of the best attacking midfielders in the world after he talked about the genocide.

Related:

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1483130390248312834

Imagine someone saying this about BLM.

 

[Gehenna]

How much do you think is caused just by the current Admin, and how much is ‘just’ by the pendulum finally swinging back towards the Right? As in, are these likely to be short term gains/loses just because of how incompetent the current Admin is, or is there a core of people finally waking up and actually going ‘wait, hold on a fucking second, you’re doing what?‘? The numbers seem very good, but my experience with actively following polls is somewhat limited, so I’m not certain about the deeper implications of this.

The thing is... it basically does not matter. Once someone drops into Non-Aligned they are never going back to being a solid blue voter. And someone who drops down to a Lean is likely to stay there unless something nudges them down further. It's basically a one-direction thing for either party.

 

[Cuckoman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBzJWI94WLU

https://archive.md/wip/quyOG

VP Harris waits at the podium for 10 minutes before giving MLK day speech.​

Skip through it, shit si funny...she ain't havin' it.

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This is utter humiliation and from her pose I think she knows it is humiliation as well.
Who forced here to go out there to do this?
And does the VP not have anything better to do during her working day than stand and wait for people while looking irritated and humiliated?

EDIT: the message is loud and clear. I am VP, my time is worth so little that I can just stand and wait for people to get ready for my speech.

 

[Gehenna]

This is utter humiliation and from her pose I think she knows it is humiliation as well.
Who forced here to go out there to do this?
And does the VP not have anything better to do during her working day than stand and wait for people while looking irritated and humiliated?

The worst part, I am fairly sure whoever put her up there thought they were doing her a favor. Notice how she has been trotted out more this year already than her entire last year? It's testing the waters, seeing if she can be the smiling empty mask that Biden was supposed to be.

It is... not going well.

 

[Nate Scully 025]

The thing is... it basically does not matter. Once someone drops into Non-Aligned they are never going back to being a solid blue voter. And someone who drops down to a Lean is likely to stay there unless something nudges them down further. It's basically a one-direction thing for either party.

Ah, that does answer my question on its permanency, yeah.... holy shit then. That really is apocalyptic for them if that is the case, since I have my sincere doubts the current Democrats are actually going to start promoting and backing rational concepts and plans, like trying to actually support bipartisan bills that aren’t just pork for them and RINOs, you know, things that might actually get them some momentum instead of spinning their wheels pointlessly. So... if they’ve lost a not insignificant amount of core voters, their current situation seems absolutely unsustainable. Not because I think all the Democrat voters will shift to neutral or even the right... but because they can only bleed so much and not become either a permanent minority, or get swallowed up by a new left wing party. Forgive me for being overly white-pilled, but this seems pretty damning.

 

[Smithfield Ham]

You guys mind if I share something I find interesting? Alan Litchman and Vladimir Keillis-Borok (though I suspect it was FAR more of the latter than the former) developed a mathematical system for predicting elections called "The Keys to the White House." Though not perfect, it's a really good and consistent indicator of how well a party/president will do. Here's my take on how Biden's current "keys" are doing:

Stuff with the little orange scribble next to it is uncertain but currently leaning "unlikely." Crossed out means the answer is a firm, decisive "No." Having six "No" keys means you're likely to lose. Biden has seven. To go into more detail: the economy is currently is in recession and looks to stay that way into 2024. The per-capita growth of the economy is worse than it was last term. There's sustained social unrest in the form of regular protests still occurring. The administration is tainted by scandal thanks to Hunter Biden. Afghanistan was a major military failure, there is no major military victory, and Biden isn't even remotely charismatic in any way.

Then there are the two "possible" keys: Biden hasn't managed to pass any "major" policy changes whatsoever, and likely won't get to before the midterms. As for the midterms themselves, they're looking to be a devastating blowout or, at best, a simple defeat.

There's are obviously subject to debate, and could potentially change. You could argue that the economy will improve before 2024, you could argue that there isn't "sustained" social unrest, you could possibly even argue the Hunter Biden scandal isn't actually a scandal. But my point is, things look really, really bad just in terms of this predictive model. If the Democrats lose the House in the midterms, which they most likely will, they'll lose the presidency for sure.

 

[Gehenna]

Ah, that does answer my question on its permanency, yeah.... holy shit then. That really is apocalyptic for them if that is the case, since I have my sincere doubts the current Democrats are actually going to start promoting and backing rational concepts and plans, like trying to actually support bipartisan bills that aren’t just pork for them and RINOs, you know, things that might actually get them some momentum instead of spinning their wheels pointlessly. So... if they’ve lost a not insignificant amount of core voters, their current situation seems absolutely unsustainable. Not because I think all the Democrat voters will shift to neutral or even the right... but because they can only bleed so much and not become either a permanent minority, or get swallowed up by a new left wing party. Forgive me for being overly white-pilled, but this seems pretty damning.

To provide a somewhat downer. it doesn't really matter unless the Republicans become a proper opposition. Being under Uniparty rule just means a slower decline. Now I remain optimistic here because everything is still on track without any bumps so far to have Trumpian Populism totally overtake the Republicans eventually. but it has not happened yet, it is still ongoing, and can still be undone.

But until it has happened, the Democrats crashing and burning only means a slower death.

 

[CrippleThreat]

Related:

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1483130390248312834

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Imagine someone saying this about BLM.

Aside from a hatred of genociding helpless people and the CCP-controlled China, the Uighurs don't mean much to me. In fact, I could say my feelings towards them stem from my loathing of China.

What's different, however, is BLM. They're a militia; they have marching chants; swathes of people willing for the cause; identifiable uniforms; a mission; and with the advent of their looters and niggers, a modicum of actual force and power. Dare I even say they have more morale that the US Army? Fuck them though.

 

[X Prime]

I wouldn't trust the 13 keys guy.

It seems pretty clear to me that he was starting to drink Dem Kool Aid after 2016.

I mean dear God he tried to claim Trump's economy was shit long-term. If he tries to claim Biden's economy is OK that will be the nail in the coffin. He also tried to claim Trump is not charismatic, which is laughable.

 

[JosephStalin]

 

[Prosphora]

Now that the MLK sperg seems to have calmed down, I want to on behalf of the entire Joe Biden Megathread say:

 

[Smithfield Ham]

I wouldn't trust the 13 keys guy.

It seems pretty clear to me that he was starting to drink Dem Kool Aid after 2016.

I mean dear God he tried to claim Trump's economy was shit in long-term.

I don't trust Alan Litchman for shit, he wants the second amendment repealed and thought Impeachment was a good use of anyone's time. He's very clearly a CNN-style neoliberal invested in the party's victory. HOWEVER: he's not the person who actually created this model, it was Vladimir Keillis-Borok. Ignoring his interpretations of it, I think the model is still pretty solid.

 

[Gehenna]

I wouldn't trust the 13 keys guy.

It seems pretty clear to me that he was starting to drink Dem Kool Aid after 2016.

I mean dear God he tried to claim Trump's economy was shit long-term. If he tries to claim Biden's economy is OK that will be the nail in the coffin. He also tried to claim Trump is not charismatic, which is laughable.

The 13 keys themselves are fairly solid. The problem is that they also require fairly significant speculation if used for predictions.

 

[Josterman]

4000 nice

 

[X Prime]

The 13 keys themselves are fairly solid. The problem is that they also require fairly significant speculation if used for predictions.

Right, so I do not understand how it is a mathematical prediction.

Especially when it tries to factor in "charisma."

 

[Smithfield Ham]

The 13 keys themselves are fairly solid. The problem is that they also require fairly significant speculation if used for predictions.

But then again, aren't all political predictions speculation? Nobody can actually see the future, after all.

 

[Blackhole]

happy 4000 pages everyone.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

10,000 pages by 2024?