US 2022 Mid-Term Election

[HumanHive]

Just before we begin, here are the facts:

United States Congress elections, 2022

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

PRE-ELECTION CONTROL OF SENATE:
Democrats: 48 seats
Republicans: 50 seats
Independents: 2 seats (caucus with democrats)
Difference: Deadlock in Senate, VP Harris is tiebreaker

SENATE SEATS UP FOR ELECTION:
Democrats: 14 seats
Republicans: 20 seats

PRE-ELECTION CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Democrats: 222 seats
Republicans: 213 seats
Difference: 9 seats

HOUSE SEATS UP FOR ELECTION:
All 435 seats will be up for election.

SENATE INCUMBENTS NOT SEEKING REELECTION:
Democrats: 1 Senator (Leahy, the old bastard)
Republicans: 5 Senators

HOUSE INCUMBENTS NOT SEEKING REELECTION:
Democrats: 28 Congressmen
Republicans: 6 Congressmen

THE ANALYSIS:
The Democrats are fucked, before we even get started. The biggest problem is simply in the numbers. In US Elections, incumbents - and that is any incumbent of any party - have a 90% reelection rate. Thus the meta if you will is for each politician to hold onto their given elected office with the vicegrip of the dead; as any election with two unknown candidates is extremely risky for the incumbent party. Oh sure you can have the previous guy campaign with the new candidate, but it's still too big a risk. Thus we come to the key issue here: in the House, the Republicans only need to take 5 more seats to win. 28 Democrats are leaving the House for good; and all in districts where Republicans are likely to win. Republican control of the House after 2022 is pretty much assured - the only question is how big a majority they're going to get and whether they do anything with the opportunity (as many who know me can tell you, I'm not an optimist in that regard).

Making matters worse is President Joe Biden's administration having almost no mandate despite 'historic turnout' in 2020, the ongoing covid crisis remaining unresolved, the economy tanking, a war with Russia on the horizon, the United States still continuing to bleed jobs at record rates, and perennial issues such as illegal immigration, abortion, education, and LGBTQ++ swinging the GOP's way for the moment.

THE HIVE'S OPINION:
Joe Biden needs to flat out resign, and the Democrats need to restart with a Harris Administration. Oh sure, it'll have its own faults. But the only way to stem the bleeding is to change course completely.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

Should this be combined with the pre-existing thread in AH?

 

[Fomo Hoire]

Thus we come to the key issue here: in the House, the Republicans only need to take 10 more seats to win.

Minor nitpick: Each seat that gets flipped both removes one seat from the side that lost it and adds one seat to the side that gained it, it affects the "difference" by 2 because of the weird double ended math.

To flip a difference of 9 seats, the loser needs to take 5 seats, they don't need to gain a full 10.

Sorry no ping, can't quote longpost

 

[HumanHive]

Should this be combined with the pre-existing thread in AH?

Given that megathreads are being locked in A&H (which was originally intended for just articles), I made this thread just to be safe.

Minor nitpick: Each seat that gets flipped both removes one seat from the side that lost it and adds one seat to the side that gained it, it affects the "difference" by 2 because of the weird double ended math.

To flip a difference of 9 seats, the loser needs to take 5 seats, they don't need to gain a full 10.

Sorry no ping, can't quote longpost

Yeah, I guess that's true. Edited the OP.

 

[The Mass Shooter Ron Soye]

A midterm with an unpopular Democratic President? Good for Republicans. Having less seats up for election in the Senate could soften the blow a little for Democrats.

How Popular Is Joe Biden?

Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Many elections just become referendums on the President.

 

[The Last Stand]

They won't give Harris the administration unless Biden dies. I can imagine these same people "grieving" Biden's death, then celebrating an "historical landmark" with the first female POC president.

Then, it'll be business as usual.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Harris is a diversity hired pajeet cunt who doesn't have the will to throw niggers back into the pen, like she used to do as AG of California.

 

[mate]

This is the best place for this thread and the OP is nice and succinct. It's going to be fun watching this thread go down hill from here.

 

[Kari Kamiya]

THE ANALYSIS:
The Democrats are fucked, before we even get started.

That doesn't matter anymore, we banana republic now. Federal elections are lost, local elections are your only hope as long as state courts continue to still have power over their own jurisdictions.

 

[draggs]

Democrats are going to have their third historic midterm butt-raping this century ( 2010, 2014, 2022 )

Republicans with only two ( 2006, 2018 ) will do fuck-all to prevent their catching up in 2026

 

[Aldeland]

I just came here to say the jannies are fags for closing the megathread instead of just moving it a different board. Fuck Jannies and Fuck Trannies

 

[Lone Star]

I can't wait for a red wave, soon followed by cries of "cheating" and "fascism" and how "Democracy is dead".

 

[Angry Shoes]

I can't wait for a red wave, soon followed by cries of "cheating" and "fascism" and how "Democracy is dead".

It seems like crying about election-rigging when your party loses is the new trend and I don't see it stopping now.

 

[teriyakiburns]

I guess this is where @Gehenna should come to tell us all about the based black voters, and cabal's puppeteer hands stuffed up kamala's kooch.

 

[MrJokerRager]

I can't wait for a red wave, soon followed by cries of "cheating" and "fascism" and how "Democracy is dead".

Biden already called it in his pressor a while ago.

 

[Jonah Hill poster]

The Democrats are fucked, before we even get started. The biggest problem is simply in the numbers. In US Elections, incumbents - and that is any incumbent of any party - have a 90% reelection rate. Thus the meta if you will is for each politician to hold onto their given elected office with the vicegrip of the dead; as any election with two unknown candidates is extremely risky for the incumbent party. Oh sure you can have the previous guy campaign with the new candidate, but it's still too big a risk.

Not to worry @HumanHive since I’m sure it’s just a “minor incursion”. It’ll work itself out in some way or another.

 

[TheBest]

Biden already called it in his pressor a while ago.

The question is if they’ll try to pull what they did in 2020 again

 

[Ptolemy]

Biden's 'historic turnout' in 2020... mmm yes it ages better with each passing day.

 

[Brahma]

The question is if they’ll try to pull what they did in 2020 again

They can't in anywhere near the numbers they did previously. They're already sounding alarm bells over republicans targeting county and state level electoral process jobs, something they'd previously been happy to largely leave in the hands of teachers etc in other words democrats.

America is facing a ballot-box coup – help us sound the alarm in 2022 | John Mulholland

All over the country, free and fair elections are under threat. This will be one of the most important stories we tell in 2022.

www.theguardian.com

"And yet, Republicans exercised by the ex-president’s lies about electoral fraud are now systematically targeting elected offices across the US. But not any elected office – specifically positions that have oversight of elections. They are pursuing positions of high office, such as secretary of state, but also lower-ranking county-level offices across the states, from Michigan to Pennsylvania and from Texas to Georgia.

This is an entirely new threat. This is not voting suppression or gerrymandering (though those remain huge democratic obstacles which we continue to report on). What is now taking shape across America is the machinery necessary to steal an election.

Free and fair elections are under threat. Last week, Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic secretary of state in Michigan, said about Trumpists targeting official positions with electoral oversight: “This is a five-alarm fire. If people in general, leaders and citizens, aren’t taking this as the most important issue of our time and acting accordingly, then we may not be able to ensure democracy prevails again in 2024.”"

 

[Lord of the Large Pants]

They can't in anywhere near the numbers they did previously. They're already sounding alarm bells over republicans targeting county and state level electoral process jobs, something they'd previously been happy to largely leave in the hands of teachers etc in other words democrats.

America is facing a ballot-box coup – help us sound the alarm in 2022 | John Mulholland

All over the country, free and fair elections are under threat. This will be one of the most important stories we tell in 2022.

www.theguardian.com

"And yet, Republicans exercised by the ex-president’s lies about electoral fraud are now systematically targeting elected offices across the US. But not any elected office – specifically positions that have oversight of elections. They are pursuing positions of high office, such as secretary of state, but also lower-ranking county-level offices across the states, from Michigan to Pennsylvania and from Texas to Georgia.

This is an entirely new threat. This is not voting suppression or gerrymandering (though those remain huge democratic obstacles which we continue to report on). What is now taking shape across America is the machinery necessary to steal an election.

Free and fair elections are under threat. Last week, Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic secretary of state in Michigan, said about Trumpists targeting official positions with electoral oversight: “This is a five-alarm fire. If people in general, leaders and citizens, aren’t taking this as the most important issue of our time and acting accordingly, then we may not be able to ensure democracy prevails again in 2024.”"

How dare Republicans pursue official positions through the proper and legal channels.