I suspect a peace deal is probable for the Monday talks, if I had money to bet it would probably involve Russia setting up a puppet state or two along the entire coast and basically everything east of the Dnieper, but Kyiv and it's eastern suburbs remain in Ukrainian hands and no regime change takes place. Demilitarization will be a factor as well but Ukraine could also just join the EU to get a defensive pact going with the West and say that joining NATO isn't on their mind.
That's basically the best somewhat realistic outcome for Ukraine at this point, and Putin gets to parade himself around saying the Donbass region being safe, and say Ukraine no longer sharing a border with Russia means the threat is neutralized, plus Putin gets more of those sweet, sweet, warm water ports, before Russia collapses into a massive economic crisis the next month.