Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Mr Bunny]

I'm going to put a deadline on this and assume if a peace or widespread ceasefires aren't a thing by April Russia is fully committed to annexing/puppeting Ukraine no matter the cost, at that point it will either end in a Russian victory or end when Russia suddenly finds itself unable to continue the offensive for a multitude of possible reasons. People have been saying these peace talks are just for show and given Russia's M.O. that's a definite possibility.

Tbh I think the Russians sitting about and shelling the cities to kingdom come is something they can do to their hearts content.

 

[Kenya Jones]

Tbh I think the Russians sitting about and shelling the cities to kingdom come is something they can do to their hearts content.

The problem is it still isn't a one sided war. The Ukies are doing enough damage back at the Russians that it is still costly to keep the war going.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Tbh I think the Russians sitting about and shelling the cities to kingdom come is something they can do to their hearts content.

They probably are just getting finished with the stockpile of shells from the 70s, and are ready to move onto the 80s stockpile. Those fuckers really know how to stockpile munitions.

 

[Mr Bunny]

The problem is it still isn't a one sided war. The Ukies are doing enough damage back at the Russians that it is still costly to keep the war going.

I don't think the Russians care at this point.

 

[Vesperus]

I'm going to put a deadline on this and assume if a peace or widespread ceasefires aren't a thing by April Russia is fully committed to annexing/puppeting Ukraine no matter the cost, at that point it will either end in a Russian victory or end when Russia suddenly finds itself unable to continue the offensive for a multitude of possible reasons. People have been saying these peace talks are just for show and given Russia's M.O. that's a definite possibility.

Even with the stunning and brave Reddit battalion, the Ukies will run out of meat shields before the Rus. Anti-tank weapons still need a finger with a pulse to fire them.

 

[Kenya Jones]

I don't think the Russians care at this point.

I don't think they do either. But it's a lot harder to shell a city when all your artillery pieces have been destroyed. (I'm not saying that is what will happen btw)

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

I'm going to put a deadline on this and assume if a peace or widespread ceasefires aren't a thing by April Russia is fully committed to annexing/puppeting Ukraine no matter the cost, at that point it will either end in a Russian victory or end when Russia suddenly finds itself unable to continue the offensive for a multitude of possible reasons. People have been saying these peace talks are just for show and given Russia's M.O. that's a definite possibility.

"Hey, Ivan, get your lazy ass out of the cold, damp trench. Your mother called back from the motherland. She said her life savings are worth less than the toilet paper that ran out and your dad had to do some time in jail because he didn't say anything. So you grad your AK and your ration pack from 1988 and go into the forest where the enemy is waiting for you. Also congratulations, you're the new General of the army because the last one died again."

Russia can't hold the whole of Ukraine and they definitely can't afford to Afghanistan it for another decade. That ship has long sailed passed the first week of the war. Who the fuck knows what Putin is trying to do besides save face.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Even with the stunning and brave Reddit battalion, the Ukies will run out of meat shields before the Rus. Anti-tank weapons still need a finger with a pulse to fire them.

It's not a matter of raw population, it's a matter of how many losses a country is willing to take, and the defender will always have the advantage in that situation. Yes, yes, oligarchs don't give a shit about casualties, but the Russians themselves tore down two governments in the space of a century over the combination of a bad war and a bad economy. If Putin has to step this up to the point of not being able to pretend the draftees are there by mistake, or worse yet, hold an emergency draft, he's going to be walking on some dangerously thin ice.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

"Hey, Ivan, get your lazy ass out of the cold, damp trench. Your mother called back from the motherland. She said her life savings are worth less than the toilet paper that ran out and your dad had to do some time in jail because he didn't say anything. So you grad your AK and your ration pack from 1988 and go into the forest where the enemy is waiting for you. Also congratulations, you're the new General of the army because the last one died again."

Russia can't hold the whole of Ukraine and they definitely can't afford to Afghanistan it for another decade. That ship has long sailed passed the first week of the war. Who the fuck knows what Putin is trying to do besides save face.

I predict Putin will just put up a puppet government, make a big speech about how Russia is the greatest country in the world and how all reports of those 20,000 Russian corpses rotting in Ukraine is fake news because Russians will never leave their dead behind, while midway through the speech said puppet government instantly collapses the second Russian military forces leave.

 

[Fraiser crane]

I predict Putin will just put up a puppet government, make a big speech about how Russia is the greatest country in the world and how all reports of those 20,000 dead Russian corpses rotting in Ukraine is fake news because Russians will never leave their dead behind, while midway through the speech said puppet government instantly collapses the second Russian military forces leave.

I predict you fall down stairs and die of aids
With your ten year old child takes

 

[MindYourSeabiscuits]

I don't think you appreciate how catastrophic losing the status of reserve currency will be. Its going to lead to Weimar tier hyperinflation as every nation starts dumping their stash of US dollars as they shift to a basket of various currencies, all of that inflation that the US exports abroad will come crashing back with a vengeance, go look at how fast inflation spiked after Bretton Woods collapsed in the so called "Nixon Shock." Britain and France were absolutely FUCKED as a result of their World War 1 and 2 expenditures and collapse of their empires, this lasted almost all the way into the late 80s, a period of 40-50 years. Russia is still dealing with the collapse of the USSR and being totally frank, Putin's steady hand was a large factor in how well Russia has recovered, which by Western standards is not much at all, the country is still a shithole but at least they have food in their fucking grocery stores now. When the US loses the status of reserve currency its going to an implosion so hard that likely the entire globe is going to enter a second Great Depression as the center of the financial world gets displaced just like it did when it shifted from London to NYC in the wake of World War 1.

No I totally agree with you, it's going to be devastating, I meant long term the average American will be better off because losing it I think leaves a good opportunity for the current gay regime to be replaced with something less gay and more aligned with normalcy but that's years down the line. It's going to be really bad for a long time before that.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

It's not a matter of raw population, it's a matter of how many losses a country is willing to take, and the defender will always have the advantage in that situation. Yes, yes, oligarchs don't give a shit about casualties, but the Russians themselves tore down two governments in the space of a century over the combination of a bad war and a bad economy. If Putin has to step this up to the point of not being able to pretend the draftees are there by mistake, or worse yet, hold an emergency draft, he's going to be walking on some dangerously thin ice.

Let's all hope it doesn't come to that. The aftershocks were felt worldwide both times and not always in a good way. I don't want that kind of chaos in a nuclear armed country. Again. There are some pretty nasty rumors about nukes going missing in the collapse of the soviet union, including that some oligarchs have personal ones.

 

[Vesperus]

It's not a matter of raw population, it's a matter of how many losses a country is willing to take, and the defender will always have the advantage in that situation. Yes, yes, oligarchs don't give a shit about casualties, but the Russians themselves tore down two governments in the space of a century over the combination of a bad war and a bad economy. If Putin has to step this up to the point of not being able to pretend the draftees are there by mistake, or worse yet, hold an emergency draft, he's going to be walking on some dangerously thin ice.

Maybe, but never underestimate the Russian capacity for utter misery.

I'm a sullen whinging BritBong, but the average Russian makes me look like a gay nigger in mardigras with a big bag of free drugs.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Let's all hope it doesn't come to that. The aftershocks were felt worldwide both times and not always in a good way. I don't want that kind of chaos in a nuclear armed country. Again. There are some pretty nasty rumors about nukes going missing in the collapse of the soviet union, including that some oligarchs have personal ones.

I wouldn't call it a boogaloo over the draft itself, but he'd be really cutting down on the safety margin for avoiding one. If it gets that bad, the next thing I'd keep an eye on is the harvest season. With damn near the whole world refusing to sell to them, if the Russians can't produce enough for themselves this Winter, they're going to be in a lot of trouble.

 

[MindYourSeabiscuits]

I wouldn't be so sure the dollar is on its way out just yet. Practically speaking, this is all talk at the moment. Until the Sauds actually accept the yuan as payment for their oil, I am skeptical that this is anything more than the KSA being "hey Biden, stop being a nigger and stop this autistic screeching".

You could be right but I would say even just that threat isn't a good sign for American regime and would have been unthinkable even a couple months ago. But we'll see.

 

[Atomic Ant]

I predict Putin will just put up a puppet government, make a big speech about how Russia is the greatest country in the world and how all reports of those 20,000 Russian corpses rotting in Ukraine is fake news because Russians will never leave their dead behind, while midway through the speech said puppet government instantly collapses the second Russian military forces leave.

Isnt the point to occupy the country to secure key strategic/military interests? I dont think Putin intends military forces to ever leave. Maybe they leave from Keeve* but I think probably if Russia secures Mariupol then theyll have forces there indefinitely.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Isnt the point to occupy the country to secure key strategic/military interests? I dont think Putin intends military forces to ever leave. Maybe they leave from Keeve* but I think probably if Russia secures Mariupol then theyll have forces there indefinitely.

I don't doubt they will occupy the Donbass region, but there's no way they will be able to occupy Ukraine in their current situation. With the impending collapse of the Russian economy they could have probably managed to occupy it if the invasion was swift and over before a few days, but this thing is going to last probably at least 2 months assuming no peace treaty happens and the Russians need to take Kiev.

 

[Wy4M]

Kadyrov would be shiposting in General Discussion
View attachment 3078307

He would also take care of those filthy zoos.

 

[Atomic Ant]

I don't doubt they will occupy the Donbass region, but there's no way they will be able to occupy Ukraine in their current situation. With the impending collapse of the Russian economy they could have probably managed to occupy it if the invasion was swift and over before a few days, but this thing is going to last probably at least 2 months assuming no peace treaty happens and the Russians need to take Kiev.

Yeah I more or less agree, but I think that the Russian calculus has never been "We want to occupy all of Ukraine!" Thats kind of a meaningless goal geopolitically. Some meaningful geopolitical goals would be things like: Securing freshwater in Crimea/making it possible to expand the influence of the Black Sea port, Making easier connection with Transnistria (which you are larping if you act like thats not functionally Russia), and potential regime change at like a 3rd.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

I don't doubt they will occupy the Donbass region, but there's no way they will be able to occupy Ukraine in their current situation. With the impending collapse of the Russian economy they could have probably managed to occupy it if the invasion was swift and over before a few days, but this thing is going to last probably at least 2 months assuming no peace treaty happens and the Russians need to take Kiev.

Another factor is just how well the ukies have poisoned the well for any occupation force. Handing out all those rifles may be useless for creating infantry, but it's great for starting an insurgency. That's not even counting the variety of military equipment of every kind abandoned and then stolen.