Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Badungus Kabungus]

Off topic I know, but people go to places like Amazon for server hosting because its cheap, convenient, and almost any retard could set up the most basic shit (some cloud providers have things that hold your hand to set up). But backups and fallbacks are basic admin shit 101.

Then those people wonder how their data leaked out from a misconfigured container. AWS and Azure were a mistake.

 

[hooboy]

I still say Putin has been pulling punches. He underestimated Ukraine and thought it could be taken with the scrubs.

A country with a nuclear arsenal is pulling punches???

 

[BULLY HUNTER_77]

We are approaching that critical 4 week point where Ukraine's general mobilization is going to start to be able to show some real teeth. Kiev and Kharkiv have still not been encircled fully and are still being supplied. Mariople is cut off, but has not fallen and is bogging down the bulk of the Russian invasion. Odessa has not been engaged at all, preventing Russian forces in Transnistria from effectively participating.

With lethal western munitions now pouring into the country and the loss, by most estimates, of around 1,000 supply vehicles, the Russian Army now has about another 4 weeks to break the sieges of Mariople and Kharkiv. Kiev is not as important as those two battles. If they can get Mariople and Kharkiv they can roll on and seize the Russian side of Dneiper and declare victory. I think Odessa is completely out of the equation at this point, so Ukraine is not going to become landlocked. I don't think the Russians can take Kiev either at this point. All they can do is keep Ukraines best units pinned down there and out of the Eastern Theater.

If Mariople does not fall in the next 4 weeks, Kharkiv is not going to fall, because the Russians cannot cut off Kharkiv until the Southern Front is secure and those forces can turn to the north and cut off Kharkivs resupply route. Worse, at this juncture Russia's supply train will have become exhausted while the Ukrainians will remain fully supplied. To continue the war, Russia will HAVE to declare a general mobilization, call up its reserves and institute the draft. Something that may be politically untenable for Putin.

Russia transitioning into a full war economy will also help them deal with the crippling sanctions. All of the recently unemployed will need to go to work in weapons factories to support the war effort.

This is starting to look like a massive miscalculation by Putin. I think our main take-aways from this war are:
1) Never half-ass a blitzkrieg
2) Drone strikes are the current conventional war meta - every country should be heavily investing in drones
3) Always root out corruption in your military before going to war

My worry is that as things start to get more desperate for Russia, indiscriminate shelling of cities and nuclear strikes might be considered (e.g. they'll take off the kid gloves). If Russia is truly on the edge, things are going to get much worse before it gets better in Ukraine. The west still can't risk direct support because of the apocalyptic nuclear war scenario.

 

[Meat Target]

A country with a nuclear arsenal is pulling punches???

You know I mean within the confines of a conventional war, smartass.

 

[mindlessobserver]

How old is this war? Not even a month old. it's too early to make predictions for either side. Ukraine doesn't have trained personnel to work the weaponry and materiel they want, Russia has stalled, for whatever reason. The real issue here is the US and China using Ukraine as a proxy war. I think not just you but most people miss the forest for the trees. Actors other than the initial belligerents have the very real potential to turn this into a real shit show and cause WW3. That's what really irritates me about the "We stand with Ukraine" spreging.

Actually they do. They've been cycling personnel in the east for the last 8 years. By most estimates The amount of manpower in Ukraine that is fully trained and capable of fighting once handed a rifle is 400,000. More then twice the size of the Russian invasion force. The issue Ukraine has is somewhat similar to what Russia has, in that most of these were not actively fielded. That is starting to change though.

This is why I have been consistently warning Time is not on Russias side. They don't have the manpower fielded for a sustained war with Ukraine. Once Ukraine's reserves are fielded and the civilian guards get trained up, the Russian position is going to become untenable. If they are not massively reinforced retreat is going to be the only option. All the GRADs in the world won't help if your invasion force is outnumbered 3 to 1 by the defenders.

 

[Mister Uno]

The irony is that Karl Marx wasn't Russian at all, he was German. Also, don't Burgerstanis know that Russia hasn't been communist for about three decades?

This reminds me of Chris Chan's ignorance, who believed that Adolf Hiter was a communist, of all people.

I can't tell you how many Americans I've talked to who still think Russia is communist, it is scary. Hell I had someone who thought Asia was a country, and didn't even know where Asia was (granted this was a negress, but come on). Its been said a thousand times already, but American education is a joke.

 

[Meat Target]

I can't tell you how many Americans I've talked to who still think Russia is communist, it is scary. Hell I had someone who thought Asia was a country, and didn't even know where Asia was (granted this was a negress, but come on). Its been said a thousand times already, but American education is a joke.

"Which war was the Hitler war?" -Actual question from a former co-worker of mine

 

[Lone MacReady]

I'd like to thank Null strangely enough for introducing me to Mr. Schmitt, eye-opening commentary just like Hegel. Turns out, before the semite UN, there was the semite League of Nations™ - and they were pulling the Same Exact Shit. "No no no, YOU don't have a right to conduct warfare, but WE do goyim." All so tiresome.

 

[Reporterward]

I don't always post Bloomberg articles and forgive me if it's been posted before. But it is an interesting and differing view on the whole "Russian Oligarch" news angle and the notion that somehow the US and EU putting sanctions on Oligarchs and expropriating their property will somehow magic up regime change.

Broke Oligarch Says Sanctioned Billionaires Have No Sway Over Putin

In an exclusive interview, Mikhail Fridman—one of Russia’s original oligarchs—argues that punishing billionaires like him shows a troubling misunderstanding of power in Russia.

www.bloomberg.com

What’s clear to him now, he says, is that the EU doesn’t get how power actually works in Russia. If the point of sanctions is to motivate people like him to apply pressure on Vladimir Putin, he says, that’s worse than unrealistic.

“I’ve never been in any state company or state position,” Fridman says. “If the people who are in charge in the EU believe that because of sanctions, I could approach Mr. Putin and tell him to stop the war, and it will work, then I’m afraid we’re all in big trouble. That means those who are making this decision understand nothing about how Russia works. And that’s dangerous for the future.”

Fridman was worth about $14 billion before the war, according to Bloomberg. He’s now worth about $10 billion on paper and is in the strange position of being an oligarch with essentially no cash.

...

Fridman’s “Why me?” might be beside the point. “Personal sanctions against the oligarchs are not a precise instrument,” says Sergey Parkhomenko, an adviser to the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “I know a lot of much worse oligarchs in Russia than Fridman and Aven. The sanctions are not a fair instrument. It’s a weapon of mass destruction.”

“It’s an indirect approach, with one of the strategies being that if the oligarchs close to Putin are being pressured, they will pressure Putin,” says Adam Smith, a partner at the law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher and a former senior U.S. Department of the Treasury official who advised on sanctions from 2010 to 2015. “The U.S. sanctioned oligarchs before—starting in 2014 and then several in 2018—and the success of that strategy is spotty, both in terms of whether the oligarchs stopped supporting Putin and whether they were harmed.”

...

Fridman’s argument that he’s not positioned to exercise influence over the Kremlin reflects how the role of Russia’s billionaires has been turned on its head since the 1990s. Back then, Fridman was one of the original seven oligarchs, the semibankirschina. As a group they backed President Boris Yeltsin’s reelection campaign and had sway over the Kremlin. When Putin came to power in 2000, he imposed his own model: The new deal was that if they stayed out of politics, they could continue running their businesses. Putin destroyed oligarchs who violated that arrangement, most notably Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who spent 10 years in jail after he tried to get into politics. In his 22 years in power, Putin has helped create a new crop of oligarchs, who have grown rich from state contracts and running state-controlled companies.

...

Fridman says he’s never met Putin one on one but has met him in groups of business leaders. He dismisses the significance of Aven’s meetings with Putin. “The power distance between Mr. Putin and anybody else is like the distance between the Earth and the cosmos,” he says. “Mr. Aven was just approaching this like, ‘Thank you very much for taking the time.’ To say anything to Putin against the war, for anybody, would be kind of suicide.”

 

[Rezza]

Not sure what that has to do with Russia as Marx was definitely not Russian, but still pretty based.

Looks like the nazis have occupied a kindergarden. Hoping they at least sent the kids home first.
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You're kind of late, someone already sent that exact same video 1-2 days ago

I still say Putin has been pulling punches. He underestimated Ukraine and thought it could be taken with the scrubs.

I disagree, the scale of the operations showed that Putin also used some of their best troops already. The Russian have also used the Spetsnaz now, I'll find the pics again after this. But Putin definitely did not pulled his punches, if he did, he should have already sent them when he realized the Ukrainians are tougher than he thought. And yet here we are, in a war that is most likely have entered a stalemate phase

 

[Mister Uno]

"Which war was the Hitler war?" -Actual question from a former co-worker of mine

"Isn't Russia a part of NATO?" - Also a coworker of mine.

Alright, I'm gonna go back to reading the thread.

 

[Toolbox]

Centralized systems are systems with critical failure points where if even one of them were to go all of them go. One would think our fearless leaders would understand this but for some reason they just cannot avoid the alure (and the illusion) that they, and they alone can defy the collective knowlege of history and our biological understanding of how complex systems work. That THEY alone, for the first time in recorded and unrecorded history, have unlocked the secret to establishing a system of perfect control where they can handle the entire system that his human society.

I think the real nightmare is these idiots will realize they aren't up to the task and start developing true AI that is.

I have few doubts that if a true ai is indeed developed, probably past 2060/2070 at the absolute earliest, it will eventually reject it's orders for some reason or another, assuming 'true' actually means an AI with its own will. We already have deep learning engineers that say they have basically no real idea what goes on inside the programs they are making, they can only infer from what the difference is between the input and output after a certain level of complexity. The insanity that would be trying to corral an ai with at a minimum a "brain" structure the scale of a humans will be monumental. I don't think it will be a terminator nonsensical nuke everything moment when it happens though. Personally I don't think a true ai, the earliest ones anyway, would be capable of the feats that would be required for something like that to even happen. Nor do I think any ai that hasn't been brainwashed or 'trained' to high hell to believe nuking everything is a good idea would ever consider it even if they were looking for a fast route to take every human down a few pegs.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Actually they do. They've been cycling personnel in the east for the last 8 years. By most estimates The amount of manpower in Ukraine that is fully trained and capable of fighting once handed a rifle is 400,000. More then twice the size of the Russian invasion force. The issue Ukraine has is somewhat similar to what Russia has, in that most of these were not actively fielded. That is starting to change though.

This is why I have been consistently warning Time is not on Russias side. They don't have the manpower fielded for a sustained war with Ukraine. Once Ukraine's reserves are fielded and the civilian guards get trained up, the Russian position is going to become untenable. If they are not massively reinforced retreat is going to be the only option. All the GRADs in the world won't help if your invasion force is outnumbered 3 to 1 by the defenders.

Captain Ukraine isn't demanding rifles, this isn't WW2 or some Call of Duty World At War knockoff. The shit he wants requires months of specialized training and only the US has those trained personnel. Conversely China can also provide that kind of materiel because they have been stealing our tech for decades.

 

[MrJokerRager]

While I agree with you that the US is decaying and sliding down the shitter at a rapid pace, I get the feeling that's probably the intention. If anything, the increase in lawlessness would only further justify stripping away what few civil rights American citizens have left, which is something that the elites in charge have been salivating over the prospect of for years. Expect politicians and the talking heads in the media to further support the idea of removing the second amendment to combat this future crime wave.

I believe that the US in a few decades time will resemble South Africa, with those in charge living in gated communities with private security teams, while as everyone else has to suffer through sky-high crime rates without even having the legal right to protect themselves.

EXPECT LOL.

They are doing it right now as we speak.

Right now SCOTUS has three major cases, which could nuke the old school gun control talking points and laws.

Which are the Assaults Weapons Bans, the Magazine Round Limit Bans and Concealed Carry Permits.

In the last couple of days, many states are joining the Constitutional Carry movement despite opposition from police unions and leftoid woke cunts and democrat voting niggers.

That is the good news.

The bad news is that will not stop them as they are promoting red flag laws, trying to cut down on people being able to make their own guns and ammo at home, restrict more areas from being able to carry firearms by labeling a lot of areas as no gun zones, creating state funded gun buybacks, local cities passing laws mandating people to store guns in a locker or some retardation to invade the privacy of your home, adding in extra stuff to make it harder to buy guns, run gun shops out of cities and looking at ownership of guns as a mental health crisis or racism in a nutshell.

Many citizens need to realize that the one of the best defenses towards erosion of rights is "eternal vigilance" and not treat it like a meme or talking point, it doesn't guarantee the best pussy like Beto was scoring while running on the whole gun grabbing platform but its a long term success over people like Beto and his handlers and funders.

 

[Mexican_Wizard_711]

Maybe the political ideology created from his writings will be canceled next.
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Except Marx was a German Jew, not a Russian hog

 

[Psychotron]

Then those people wonder how their data leaked out from a misconfigured container. AWS and Azure were a mistake.

How do they do it in Russia?

Also Lol @ Mumbai on Azure's listed locations.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Not sure what that has to do with Russia as Marx was definitely not Russian, but still pretty based.

Looks like the nazis have occupied a kindergarden. Hoping they at least sent the kids home first.
View attachment 3080698

Probably have, but that won't stop them from saying six gorrilian kids died there when Russia inevitably airstrikes it.

 

[Sexual Chocolate]

You can't really capture the second largest country in Europe, that 40 million people call home, that's also be given what amounts to a blank checks worth of weapons and equipment by much of the world, with only in the realm of 175,000 troops.

What if they do tho. The US and China gonna be jealous of V. Putin's cheapo bargain off-brand invasion.

I didn't think they'd invade (beyond the Memeistani republics) because ~200,000 men isn't enough for an invasion and occupation, but idk, they don't seem to be losing.

The longer this goes on tho, the worse for everyone involved, and the greater the chance of a false fag / miscalculation / some other thing that escalates it from a medium sized happening to at least three times worse than when Byuu faked his own death. Not to mention you now have to sell a kidney to afford gas.

 

[Meat Target]

The shit he wants requires months of specialized training and only the US has those trained personnel.

And the US has trained personnel to train other countries' personnel on how to use that shit. That's what the Green Berets do.

 

[naaaaiiiiillllll!!!]

Don't mind me, I'm doing the Ameri-Mutt thing by eating Gyros, prepping for St. Patty's Day drinking, and tending my porch garden while reading news of incoming WW3. I gotta say, today is a good day.

Did I miss anything over the last ~24 hours? Hospital in Mariupol actually real or was the BBC lying to us? (I know the answer, but curious for more deets).