Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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I found this out later on, but this pajeet ran a cult that almost took down Oregon.


Looking at the current state of Oregon, I am impressed with this dude given his ideals and it makes sense lol.
Yeah, they sprayed flu water on a bunch of shit in the grocery stores in order to make non-supporters too sick to go out and vote. Man, imagine doing that sort of thing. Surely no one would use a pandemic to manipulate an election lol.
 
I hate both sides in this fiasco, one is backed by Globohomo and the other is different blend Globohomo but with the quiet part removed. Only reason I support Ukraine is it's their country's very existence they're fighting for at the end of the day. Also, I get to laugh at Russia because it still fancies itself a superpower.
Having over six thousand of these makes you a superpower, regardless of the state of your country. That's why everyone wants several of their own.

commie nukes.png

I support the side that can stop any side from letting them fly in my direction. That used to be the US but doesn't seem anyone is scared by Sleepy Joe and his poopy diapers.
 
There are recordings of their comms and campaigns to frequency jam and a bunch of other chicanery surrounding them. It was a thing for the first week or so. The turbo nerd Ham radio operators have been all over this shit.
I think you've bought "not proofs" as "proofs" just because it's in Russian and someone said it is what you want it to be. Fortunately it has been posted but not translated as far as I know.
Russia sucks at a lot of things but they're unlikely to be jammed by amateur radio, it's safe to assume they use frequency hopping like everyone else. Even LEO uses frequency hopping in some cases. In fact, jamming would be a good way to lose a transmitter.

Why do people keep bringing this up? The reporter who originally reported it didn't even read the articles he cited to prove the "encrypted cell phones" existed; his own sources disagree with the name of the thing and talk about an intranet and an Android fork.
Here's some analysis I wrote about this earlier in the thread: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-thread-2.114104/post-11375241
My conclusion is that the reporter has zero clue what he is talking about, and Occam's Razor suggests that the Russians are using encrypted radios and satellite communications.

That article cites a Twitter photo of a muddy radio as proof. Forgive me for not taking it at face value.
Thanks. Funnily enough I started to look for proofs since I've seen it so much and I was going down the exact same path as you just now and got so far as translating that exact same tweet on Yandex. I was going to post it but you've done it all and the translations line up.
I admittedly have rated everything with such info as informative for logging reasons and have not had time to read a good chunk of posts I react to as such.

I will go ahead and post this tweet for the convenience of others as it seems to be the main one where this mobile tech rumor stems from. The description doesn't line up with the text, really. The top is metadata indicating Kharkhiv Oblast (region) in the Chuguevsky district, presumably provided by the towers in question. The dialogue as translated from Yandex is below.
1647928240300.png


(ОБ) - Dima, can we get in touch on Orlovskaya?
(М) - Yes, the connection doesn't work here, we can't reach anyone. Where are you?
(ОБ) -I'm on my erka. How are you? ("урке" may be slang)
(М) -Yes, so-so after the latest news (presumably news about dead general)
(ОБ) -Yes, Smetozh told me. And even evacuated?
(М) -Yes, he's still there
(ОБ) - How's it going, tight?
(М) -Tight is not the word

I can't find a definitive definition on "urke." Урка is slang for criminals/thugs apparently (link) and урке is the neutral version of that I think but in this context I'm not sure how that'd work. In any case, it's definitely not "era" nor is it even close.
edit: Maybe it's just slang for burner phone or something, since the call is definitely made with a cell. I also realize after the fact I got hooked on trying to find that word and it isn't mistaken for this "era" system but I can't find anything except articles about this specific tweet on this supposed tactical comms system that relies on 3G/4G yet.

This makes me sceptical of anything pushed out by Bellingcat as they either can't translate Russian very well or are bullshitters. Both are terrible qualities in any organization claiming to provide intelligence. If they pay me a decent salary I'll do them the favor of running cyrillic through 5 different online translators and giving them back what I think is the best one.

edit2: I give up for now on finding anything about this "Era cryptophone" as the only mentions I can find of it are from articles sourcing the Bellingcat tweets. Setting a search range from before the invasion started yields nothing.
 
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With all the paramilitaries armed by the newest weapons it's just a question of timr until they take over the government.

In 10 years the same media praising Ukraine will whine about the evil extremists in the ukrainian government and call for (another) intervention
I kinda want Zelinsky to become the next Hitler and invade Poland with all those fancy NATO guns 5 years down the line.
 
I don't know if its been pointed out here or not, but the Komsomolskaya Pravda article about the Russian casualties didn't mentioned the casualties suffered by the separatists. Since the article is most likely true, anyone who believed the 'hack' excuse is either gullible as hell or just being contrarian, now there's a big chance the total KIA on the Russian side is very close to the 15000 KIA figure Ukraine gave recently
 
Yeah, there was a massive scandal in Russia a few years back. The official that was tasked with modernizing their comms equipment just contracted BaoFeng to make 95% complete radios and then he finished the other 5% with Russian parts and called them domestically manufactured while pocketing the rest of the money. He was relieved and jailed but by then? The radios were already in the inventory and the money was gone. They relied on local 3G and 4G networks for encryption.

Ukrainian 3G and 4G networks. So they're either transmitting on Uke infrastructure or they're in areas where they took down the comms infrastructure leading to the Russians needing to broadcast on unencrypted comms. One battle turned into an IRL call of duty lobby complete with threats and shit talk, but it was guys in real fucking tanks and IFVs.
Since I am struggling to find any info on this new-fangled system, do you mind sharing an article talking about this?

With all the paramilitaries armed by the newest weapons it's just a question of timr until they take over the government.

In 10 years the same media praising Ukraine will whine about the evil extremists in the ukrainian government and call for (another) intervention
I'm waiting for another plane to get shot down made possible by NATO's gifts of war.
 
yeah this sounds about right, they should have ripped off the entire bandaid in 2014 entirely instead of letting NATO bulk the ukes up for 8 years.
Hazards of 2014 not really being planned. Putin didn't think that not signing the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement would generate enough backlash that Yanukovych could and would be ousted. When that surprise happened, Putin took advantage of the chaos to secure Crimea, but I'm guessing he stopped there as stopping at Crimea's border would make it easier to defend and outside of Crimea he probably didn't feel he was guaranteed enough local support to secure annexation without real problems from the local population. Or maybe he just didn't have enough troops available at the time and he picked supporting the east over trying to make something more happen in the south. Likely no one involved in agriculture was involved in the decision making, or he'd have known he needed to at least push far enough into Kherson to secure river access or Ukraine could simply cut a vital water supply of Crimea's.

the other argument is that they never expected the ukraine side to thumb their noses at the exercise and refuse to come to the table entirely for negotiations, making the invasion unplanned. for as hard as they are being hit by the defenders the casualties among the ukes are even worse. the NYT let slip that a hospital in kherson saw more than 400 ukrainian casualties a day back in the first week of march, a figure that dwarfed the official ministry of defense count entirely. you are just not seeing the other side unless you go looking for it outside the anglophone media
Oh yeah, Ukraine's having heavier losses than they'll admit to as well. The thing is that even 400 a day for a week is "just" 2800 casualties. That'd be fairly in line with the 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian KIA that the US was estimating back around March 10th. Yes that's relatively high. The problem for Russia is that its KIA were being estimated by the US to be in the range of 3,000-10,000 as of around March 18th, with 7,000 being one of the more broadly circulated estimates. It's a bad sign for Russia if they probably aren't doing better than 1:1 in losses with Ukraine and could be going as high as 3:1 losses. It's not really sustainable. Ukraine has a general mobilization going and is ready to throw conscripts(hopefully once they've been trained) at Russia, while Russia doesn't have the same. So if that ratio keeps up for too long, Putin runs out of available troops before Ukraine does, and he'll have to either leave rear areas or less crucial borders under defended, or expend the political capital at home to send in his own conscripts and maybe draft more, or break out the chemical or nuclear weapons to start reversing that ratio in his favor. None of which are going to be particularly palpable options for him.

To be fair, if Russia can secure it's objectives and revert to a defensive posture while eliminating internal resistance in the conquered areas, they'll likely start doing much better in losses as it becomes Ukraine's job to go on the offensive and recapture territory. Still this is going to be very bloody all around, and if Putin and his planners had known that ahead of time, they really should have come up with a better plan.
 
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I think you've bought "not proofs" as "proofs" just because it's in Russian and someone said it is what you want it to be. Fortunately it has been posted but not translated as far as I know.
Russia sucks at a lot of things but they're unlikely to be jammed by amateur radio, it's safe to assume they use frequency hopping like everyone else. Even LEO uses frequency hopping in some cases. In fact, jamming would be a good way to lose a transmitter.
I ain't gonna learn fluent fucking Russian and do a deep dive on radio communications just to prove you wrong. That's retarded and a ridiculous thing to ask because even if I did invest all the time and energy to do all of that your very next response would be the lowest-effort "well, I don't know it so it isn't proof" making all of the work I just did completely meaningless. It is like proving to a flat earther that the world is round. They have to want to entertain whatever evidence provided in good faith. But you know they won't.

This bullshit "proofs" argument has become a square on Vatnik Cope Bingo card because of how often it is played. I can't force you to learn what I did and if you don't want to learn then you will never have the proof you desire.

And because I'm a glutton for punishment here are the frequencies of known Russian Shortwave/VHF/HF military channels. Known. They broadcasted in the clear. It was monitored. Volumes of evidence for it.

 
Note that they never talk about Ukrainian casualties in any of these reports, the closest you get being that one Swedish university guy saying he thought Ukraine was inflating Russian losses and understating their own. Yeah, 3,000-7,000 Russian dead/wounded would sound really heavy and make Russia sound like it's getting its ass kicked, until you point out the probably 12,000-20,000 Ukrainian dead/wounded. They also keep saying Ukraine's stalling Russian forces with resistance, but we've got maps proving they're not. Russia's either going around them or encircling them and keeping them in "cauldrons" intentionally. Everything we've seen and been told so far makes it sound like Russia's holding back to avoid civilian casualties. Not a Russiaboo thing to say either, if Putin wants to occupy Ukraine the worst thing he could do is be callous toward the population. They learned from Chechnya that even if people are receptive to you at first, bombing them into the dirt will change that very quickly.
 
If Nazism became fashionable again, the NPCs would be buying anything with a swastika banner faster than you can say "Sieg Heil."
And cue "Akshually, it's an ancient symbol of prosperity and good luck..."

@BiggerChungus
They learned from Chechnya that even if people are receptive to you at first, bombing them into the dirt will change that very quickly.
Really? Tell me, was it before or after Russia stomped Grozny flat that the Chechens decided not to fuck with Russia anymore?
 
The Russians have definitely been a lot better about their soldiers releasing footage from what I've seen.
I think this may be some kind of calculated move by the Ukrainians. They want the west to see videos of their victories, even if it means some security lapses and footage of war crimes are released. I'm basing this on the dearth of videos showing the Ukrainians doing badly. If westerners think Ukraine is winning and not a lost cause, they'll support the continued flood of NATO weapons into the country. Big tech is helping by suppressing the unappealing content that does come out of Ukraine, along with all the pro-Russia content that Russia wants the west to see. So Zelensky is allowing incidents like the guy peeing on the dead Russian, and the TikTok showing the mall held military vehicles in the parking deck, in exchange for all the videos of burned out Russian tanks going almost directly to western viewers. It's for the Ukrainians too.

Tldr Zelensky thinks a few security lapses are worth all the videos that make it seem like Ukraine is stomping the shit out of Russia and not just losing a war of attrition.
 
Since I am struggling to find any info on this new-fangled system, do you mind sharing an article talking about this?
Certainly. Keep in mind that these are it's claimed capabilities. The official in charge of the project was General Khalil Arslanov. He was convicted after embezzling 6.7 Billion Rubles.

Oh, and I've seen it spelled both ways. Quit being pedantic.
 
It seems people love to either ignore or left out the size of population and manpower Ukraine could train and use. Sure, their numbers are lowered by the millions with the refugees and displaced, but there are still going to be millions of Ukrainian willing to fight, and fight they will for this is an existential war for them

Can the same be said for the Russian? Absolutely not. Even Putin have to conjured up some scapegoat for their usage of conscripts in this war. Once he raised more conscripts, the Russian will realize just how bad the situation actually are. Any popular support for Putin will vanish overnight once their sons/brothers/husbands bodies returned in boxes. Hence why the Russian forces is now in deep shit since they can't replenish their troops
 
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I ain't gonna learn fluent fucking Russian and do a deep dive on radio communications just to prove you wrong. That's retarded and a ridiculous thing to ask because even if I did invest all the time and energy to do all of that your very next response would be the lowest-effort "well, I don't know it so it isn't proof" making all of the work I just did completely meaningless. It is like proving to a flat earther that the world is round. They have to want to entertain whatever evidence provided in good faith. But you know they won't.
I never asked you to translate anything.
This bullshit "proofs" argument has become a square on Vatnik Cope Bingo card because of how often it is played. I can't force you to learn what I did and if you don't want to learn then you will never have the proof you desire.
You think I'm saying "proofs" and not referencing the meme that has long been associated with Russian cope? Is of intentional joke, comrade.
That said, I do mean it.
And because I'm a glutton for punishment here are the frequencies of known Russian Shortwave/VHF/HF military channels. Known. They broadcast in the clear. Monitored. Volumes of evidence for it.

This is some reach. It's a list of frequencies sourced by social media, many of which have nothing to do specifically with the invasion. This is like going to a US military base and scanning the waves and saying "THE US MILITARY IS USING UNENCRYPTED COMMS HOLY SHIT LMAO" when you hear a specialist asking where he's supposed to be going again.
Unless someone records anything consequential on one of these freqs then it's nothingburger. I'm sure the Tu-95 stuff is a great source of Russian movements.
I'll mention you and many of us who don't speak slav can't tell the difference between Russian and Ukrainian so just hearing a recording of what sounds like Russian isn't proofs. Even if it is actually Russian, until you get a translation it's useless.

Certainly. Keep in mind that these are it's claimed capabilities. The official in charge of the project was General Khalil Arslanov. He was convicted after embezzling 6.7 Billion Rubles.

Oh, and I've seen it spelled both ways. Quit being pedantic.
Thanks and I wasn't being pedantic, I was making a joke is all.
 
Hazards of 2014 not really being planned. Putin didn't think that not signing the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement would generate enough backlash that Yanukovych could and would be ousted. When that surprise happened, Putin took advantage of the chaos to secure Crimea, but I'm guessing he stopped there as stopping at Crimea's border would make it easier to defend and outside of Crimea he probably didn't feel he was guaranteed enough local support to secure annexation without real problems from the local population. Or maybe he just didn't have enough troops available at the time and he picked supporting the east over trying to make something more happen in the south. Likely no one involved in agriculture was involved in the decision making, or he'd have known he needed to at least push far enough into Kherson to secure river access or Ukraine could simply cut a vital water supply of Crimea's.


Oh yeah, Ukraine's have heavier losses than they'll admit to as well. The thing is that even 400 a day for a week is "just" 2800 casualties. That'd be fairly in line with the 2,000-4,000 Ukrainian KIA that the US was estimating back around March 10th. Yes that's relatively high. The problem for Russia is that its KIA were being estimated by the US to be in the range of 3,000-10,000 as of around March 18th, with 7,000 being one of the more broadly circulated estimates. It's a bad sign for Russia if they probably aren't doing better than 1:1 in losses with Ukraine and could be going as high as 3:1 losses. It's not really sustainable. Ukraine has a general mobilization going and is ready to throw conscripts(hopefully once they've been trained) at Russia, while Russia doesn't have the same. So if that ratio keeps up for too long, Putin runs out of available troops before Ukraine does, and he'll have to either leave rear areas or less crucial borders under defended, or expend the political capital at home to send in his own conscripts and maybe draft more, or break out the chemical or nuclear weapons to start reversing that ratio in his favor. None of which are going to be particularly palpable options for him.

To be fair, if Russia can secure it's objectives and revert to a defensive posture while eliminating internal resistance in the conquered areas, they'll likely start doing much better in losses as it becomes Ukraine's job to go on the offensive and recapture territory. Still this is going to be very bloody all around, and if Putin and his planners had known that ahead of time, they really should have come up with a better plan.
A large chunk of this thread is taken up with posts like this. Yes the same people who assured us that there was WMD in Iraq, that Kabul could not be taken by the Taliban, that ISIS were invincible, that we had 2 weeks to stop spread, that J6 was worse than 9/11 that the vaccines would protect us, that inflation was just a blip, that Epstein did kill himself, are now telling us that Russia is losing tens of thousands of men. I've heard estimates of Russian KIA ranging from 7,000 to 18,000. The number of wounded will be 5-10 times higher so Russia has 50-100,000 losses, with a fighting force of around 200K. Well a 50% casualty rate over 4weeks would certainly be something, in fact unprecedented in the history of war. Alternatively the lying fucks who lie all the time are lying again.

The past 24 hours I've learned that Russia only has 3 days supply of ammo, fuel and food left for their troops and their war effort is about to collapse.

That their entire campaign has totally stalled and Putin is panicking

That they're run out of missiles which is why they're now using hypersonic doo das, scraping the bottom of the barrel.

That their infantry are refusing orders and deserting en masse.

Other things I've learned in the past 24 hours

Russia is commiting a literal Holocaust on the Ukrainians

That Ukraine's most important port city has just fallen

That unless the west intervenes with no fly zones and peacekeepers the whole of Ukraine will fall

That Putin is about to use chemical and/or biological weapons to finish the job

I've learned all these things from the same press talking heads often during the same news reports.

How can these entirely contradictory statements be all true? Well they can't.

All of this nonsense is not being pumped out to inform the public it's to support a narrative. I now understand that the great majority of the public are literal grass eating retards, I learned this during Covid. The more ridiculous and illogical the propaganda the more they eat it up. If they were told that WW3 was a price worth paying to defend the Ukraine, a country most nigger cattle hadn't heard of a couple of months ago, they would 100% go along.
 
Yes. They believed Ukrainian resistance would be far less competent than it is. That their morale would be garbage. They planned on fighting another hapless 2014 version of their ground forces. They dismissed the new formations, namely the National Guard units, as useless militia. They failed to account for training and weapons advances. Of the professionalism of regular units. Of how quickly western arms and intel could be integrated. Of how quickly reserve and volunteer units could be mobilized.

It wasn't that they didn't think. It was that their assumptions were flawed. They wanted to see a cakewalk so they prepared and planned for one. Their General Staff fucked up.
Imo they were hoping/predicting Zelenskyy himself would fail, setting all the above mentioned failures in motion.
 
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