Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Getting tard comed]

I'll go ahead and throw the bucket of cold water on this one. Anyone memeing the countdown as Russia running out of everything is doing it wrong and I will join in laughing at them, because the original 10-day countdown was a prediction from a retired 3-star (making the usual concession that he could be wrong), headed to the point where Russia could no longer press the attack effectively. A historical comparison would be when Germany's fuel reserves ran out in the Winter of '41-'42, and from there on was only able to provide supply to move one of its three army groups at any given time. Word on /k/ is that Moscow's own estimate is that they can keep the offensive up to May 9th. My own prediction is that unless the Russians find a way to unfuck their situation, mid-April looks to be when a combination of supply issues and Ukrainian mobilization bogs them down, and if they haven't fixed their shit by mid-June, they're going to be down to a table full of options they'd really rather avoid taking.

Ok so we've gone from 10 more days, to two more weeks, to 3 days, to now you're telling me anywhere from 3 weeks to 6 weeks. And it's contingent on whether or not Russia adjusts its actions. You guys are retarded. Im keeping track of all these countdowns though.

3 more days!

Then 2 more days!

Then 20 more days!

Then 43 more days!

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Real talk these sanctions on Russia will last until it starts to get chilly in September and all of a sudden they'll cave and buy cheap gas and oil to avoid a repeat of the shitstorm at the start of this year.

There has never been a better time to invest in Russian industries.

If you're a Russian maybe, I wouldn't want to be a foreign investor in Russia atm.

 

[Retink]

Obesity is a simple matter of pushups.
We can whip some drafties into shape.

The problem is that they're mentally weak as well, so the second they see a horde of vodka zombies coming their way they'll run off and hide behind the other horde of vodka zombies that will tie them to lamp posts and whip them for abandoning their post.

 

[Mr Processor]

I know about those. They're not anything new.

Right, I don't think they are new to most people except possibly the people writing the article.

 

[AnOminous]

Like I've said before, there are two options: either the Russians, on an institutional level, got so convinced of a swift win that they forgot to plan for an extended campaign, or they did have a plan and fucked it up so hard that the outside observer can't tell the difference.

This is exactly what I think. Much as the U.S. was huffing neocon optimism in Iraq 2: Unnecessary Boogaloo, and thinking "they'll welcome us as liberators!" Putin was also buying his own bullshit that he wrote in that article about why Ukraine really is a part of Russia, honest!

I think his plan involved immediately rolling over all opposition so conclusively and immediately that little things like supply lines and reinforcements weren't necessary. He seemed to have wanted this to be the capstone to his career.

Fuck it anyway. Probably ends like the Winter War with ceding of territory and the knowledge they did the absolute best they could have against Mother Russia.

 

[Mr Processor]

According to Sanger, who cannot have written his piece without high-level sources, the Biden administration “seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire without inciting a broader conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary or cutting off potential paths to de-escalation … CIA officers are helping to ensure that crates of weapons are delivered into the hands of vetted Ukrainian military units, according to American officials.

...

I have evidence from other sources to corroborate this. “The only end game now,” a senior administration official was heard to say at a private event earlier this month, “is the end of Putin regime. Until then, all the time Putin stays, [Russia] will be a pariah state that will never be welcomed back into the community of nations. China has made a huge error in thinking Putin will get away with it. Seeing Russia get cut off will not look like a good vector and they’ll have to re-evaluate the Sino-Russia axis. All this is to say that democracy and the West may well look back on this as a pivotal strengthening moment.”

Putin Misunderstands History. So, Unfortunately, Does the U.S. by Niall Ferguson

So, they plan to fight this down to the last Ukrainian baby, as expected. Will the Ukrainians get a vote? Unlikely. So much for democracy.

 

[naffatune]

Footage of dead Ukrainian soldiers in the Kiev region (link).

Spoiler: death

Also, just found out that @MapsUkraine got suspended. It's a pro-Rus Twitter account just like ASBMilitary. Let this be another reminder to archive everything.

 

[Narcotics]

In a more lighthearted post, here i bring you something to laugh at.
A facebook schizo psychic woman readings on this whole deal, apparently posted on the 24th of february.

nobody told her that Russia was technically around UK waters for an exercise in early February. Nevermind how the nuclear-armed submarines are always traveling somewhere in the ocean no matter the power

 

[Chinggis Khan]

Russia may be getting bogged down and tripping over their own dicks, but all the initial circlejerking over Zelensky and the Clapping Einsteins of Kiev has pre-emptively made me doubtful of anything that sounds like good news for Ukraine.

It bears reposting:

At this point I'm thinking it's an intended strategy of the Western talking heads to incite Russia to think they need a quick victory or else the sky will fall down over everything. One is that it demoralizes the "other side" whether it's the troops on the ground "fighting a pointless war" or the people in the Kremlin they keep talking about doing the 'palace coup' they so desperately want. But also inciting Russia to push alot faster than they need to so as to over extend their supply lines and leave them in areas they are vulnerable to attack.

In reality, it seems that Putin has committed generally the amount of troops that he wants to for the invasion, as the majority of the force needs to be present for internal threats or other external surprises. Yeah it's great that the Ukrainian government didn't immediately collapse, and any invasion strategy would of course test for that, I think in the subsequent weeks we have mostly witnessed a slow and methodical progression of the Russian forces focusing on pincer movements and encirclement of areas they intend to hold. I don't think we are truly appreciating how much a single company outfitted with ATGMs and Stingers can hold down an advance, while wreaking havoc if they aren't properly cleared in an urban area. The only area that I think they are really squeezed on manpower is to the West if they were indeed intending to encircle Odesssa. Since their current forces don't allow for that, it is either on hold as they button up the East, or perhaps they never intended to take Odessa.

I think time is on the Russian's side more than we think, as a longer protracted campaign will necessitate the relocation of civillian populations from these encircled cities, which will allow the de-Ukrainianization of these areas that Russian intends to hold indefinitely. This was one of Putin's chief complaints of the Kiev government since 2014, as he would witness millions of Russian-speaking residents fleeing to Russia never to return. Now he is putting in to place the opposite scenario and it's going above everybody's heads.

Since week 1 the reddit ukraine subs have been endless posts of "Russia is losing momentum", 'Ukraine is counter-attacking!'. This is being repeated by all the talking heads and filtering down through all the blue checkmarks and reddit power users. Yet we are seeing exactly one side continuously gaining ground.

 

[White_N]

Just to demonstrate how shallow the redditors are here, their opinion on Zenelsky as president one year ago, which includes such posts as:
1)Short answer is no. Of course it's better to have him instead of some pro-Russian candidates, but he isn't perfect at all! A lot of lies, unfair court cases, populism, and so on.
2)Nope. He’s a perfect product of information era, but empty. Just a bubble.
3)Even if you forget about the bad things he done or good things he didn't do, he's simply too incompetent and oftenly acts infantile
4)Terrible. Worse was only a traitor Yanukovych.
And then the media made him the next big thing and the dick-sucking competition started.

 

[Psychotron]

Better believe it. Bet it will be in the Washington, DC area within 48 hours max.

It could be any field operation kit. Maybe they did get their fancy electronic warfare stuff near the front, but it could really be anything.

 

[kim foxx]

you know ukrainian losses must be horrendous because the white media refuses to comment on that entirely

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

It could be any field operation kit. Maybe they did get their fancy electronic warfare stuff near the front, but it could really be anything.

And we would still want that immediately as well lol.

 

[DumbDude42]

The problem is that they're mentally weak as well, so the second they see a horde of vodka zombies coming their way they'll run off and hide behind the other horde of vodka zombies that will tie them to lamp posts and whip them for abandoning their post.

you can make them mentally strong with some harsh treatment. might take a few months but it works.
problem is that the ruling class will literally throw your officers in jail for crimes against humanity if they start doing that, so it's not happening, especially not where it would be needed.

 

[A-Stump]

The Ukrainian forces are both defeating the Russians singlehandedly with slingshots and conviction and at the same time begging for anything they can get in the International media, have lost 25% of their population to people playing refugee, and have had anything of worth blown to shit.

How fucking dumb does the media think people are? You'd have to be eating glue to buy into Ukrainian propaganda.

 

[Hell on Earth]

The local population in Kramatorsk informed the Russian army of the location of the Ukrainian troops, which was later destroyed by missiles.

Mayor of Kramatorsk :

The destroyed Ukrainian depot :

 

[Chinggis Khan]

Ok so we've gone from 10 more days, to two more weeks, to 3 days, to now you're telling me anywhere from 3 weeks to 6 weeks. And it's contingent on whether or not Russia adjusts its actions. You guys are retarded. Im keeping track of all these countdowns though.

Agreed. Outside of a black swan event like a coup or revolution, I don't think anybody in the West can predict when Russia would retreat. It's possible the offensive could last indefinitely. Russia could always institute war economy measures, mass call up of reservists, and institute conscription to alleviate logistical issues if nothing else. Yeah Russia is going to take a beating economically, but Putin's goal isn't exactly to make the graph go up by 2 points YoY.

 

[hooboy]

The Ukrainian forces are both defeating the Russians singlehandedly with slingshots and conviction and at the same time begging for anything they can get in the International media, have lost 25% of their population to people playing refugee, and have had anything of worth blown to shit.

How fucking dumb does the media think people are? You'd have to be eating glue to buy into Ukrainian propaganda.

wow! interesting take! haven’t seen someone point this one out before! thanks!

 

[Wy4M]

List of reliable sources

Got it from this link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t32ap2/according_to_the_advisor_to_the_head_of_the/

 

[Retink]

you can make them mentally strong with some harsh treatment. might take a few months but it works.
problem is that the ruling class will literally throw your officers in jail for crimes against humanity if they start doing that, so it's not happening, especially not where it would be needed.

Pretty much, but thinking about it, it would be pretty funny if an army of vodka zombies and religion of peace Chechens descended on a Ukrainian city only to find that the whole place was leveled for resources to construct additional pylons to tie the excessive amount of fleeing soldiers from the front. Chechens would be pissed that they don't have any tall buildings to shoot at in the name of Allah, but the Russians would be chikibriki.