Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Mr Bunny]

I think all the hot "Russia is losing" takes are predicated on the France 1940/Iraq 2003 operational strategic model where you capture the enemy capital and this results in the enemy army surrendering wholesale and thus organised resistance ending, so Russian success would be as per France/Iraq the rapid gain of territory culminating in the capture of the capital

Per Col. MacGregor's analysis the Russians may not believe the capture of Kiev would result in Ukranian capitulation (seems correct) and so they need to eliminate the Ukranian army by actually destroying it in the field, which is harder to measure as it requires accurate casualty estimates of the Ukrainian forces which we do not have

If the second goal is more accurate the early run to Kiev and thunder runs across the country were not a "blitzkrieg" attempt but were to gain sufficient territory to pin down and support encirclement of Ukranian formations.

Not saying the Russians are or are not doing as well as they'd hoped jut saying measuring their success solely by territorial gains is based on one strategic model which may or may not be the one the Russians are using.

They're using the strat they did in Syria.

 

[Elbereth]

I do not think there is a realistic scenario in which The Ukraine wins this conflict

I can tell you: cogs and gears of war machine falling off. Economic collapse, social unrest, or any other internal pressure.

 

[Meat Target]

I think all the hot "Russia is losing" takes are predicated on the France 1940/Iraq 2003 operational strategic model where you capture the enemy capital and this results in the enemy army and thus organised resistance ending, so Russian success would be as per France/Iraq the rapid gain of territory culminating in the capture of the capital

Per Col. MacGregor's analysis the Russians may not believe the capture of Kiev would result in Ukranian capitulation (seems correct) and so they need to eliminate the Ukranian army by actually destroying it in the field, which is harder to measure as it requires accurate casualty estimates of the Ukrainian forces which we do not have

If the second goal is more accurate the early run to Kiev and thunder runs across the country were not a "blitzkrieg" attempt but were to gain sufficient territory to pin down and support encirclement of Ukranian formations.

Not saying the Russians are or are not doing as well as they'd hoped jut saying measuring their success solely by territorial gains is based on one strategic model which may or may not be the one the Russians are using.

And most of these reports of Ruskies getting BTFO have been anecdotal.

lol
You're the one ignoring my point.
It doesn't matter if they'll win, I'm asking you if it's going to be worth it.
Russia lost 7000 men having to camp out the Chechens. Imagine now having to repeat that for a country that is 40 times larger.
"No you see Ivan. tens of thousands of dead Russians and not a single dead NATO soldier was truly the greatest victory against the NATO aggressor"

Russia is currently ratfucking American politicians' favorite money laundering racket. Putin had no qualms about sending his own people to their doom, as long as he gets to dickswing in the general direction of geopolitical rivals.

That's all this is; ordinary people fighting, suffering, and dying for oligarchs' dick-measuring contests.

 

[hooboy]

good to see ukraine is still winning cant wait to see putin in the gallows

 

[glib]

Its been 30 days. And I would not call the Russian advance halted. Stopped dead in its tracks would be a more accurate statement. Russia had strategic surprise in the opening weeks of this war. That is going to change as the spring thaw sets in and it becomes easier to move about the country. Russia may have the larger army, but it does not have the larger force in theater. And that is the key caveat here. The way they prosecuted this war meant they had 30 days to win it. Now Russia has another 30-60 days to hang on to what its taken, and hopefully massively reinforce. If the battle lines have not meaningfully shifted by June, Ukraine is almost certainly going to counter attack.

The Russian Army is three sheets to the wind right now, and it seems nobody is daring to tell Putin this fundamental truth. Russia needs to initiate general mobilization now, and begin massively reinforcing its fronts in Ukraine with reserves and conscripts. If they don't the troops engaged are going to break. Its as simple as that. Even the best units cannot sustain 3 months of conventional warfare without rest, refit and reinforcement. All the units currently getting kicked in the teeth are going to need to be cycled to the rear and replaced with fresh units soon.

Is this Ghost of Kiev on an army level scale? What army are you talking about?

 

[kim foxx]

"No you see Ivan. tens of thousands of dead Russians and not a single dead NATO soldier was truly the greatest victory against the NATO aggressor"

given that ukraine was doing joint exercises with NATO and getting stuffed with NATO gear they were a member in all but name. this kind of salami slicing is what made putin chimp out and invade

 

[hooboy]

Is this Ghost of Kiev on an army level scale? What army are you talking about?

every man woman and child probably

also the ghost of kyiv (long may he fly)

 

[kim foxx]

nobody is asking how a poor as shit country that makes subsaharan africa look rich is capable of fielding europe's second biggest land force? obviously NATO was twinking them

 

[kuuu]

I don't think their literal screeching is helping much.

This is supposed to be France.

 

[Richardface]

Its been 30 days. And I would not call the Russian advance halted. Stopped dead in its tracks would be a more accurate statement. Russia had strategic surprise in the opening weeks of this war. That is going to change as the spring thaw sets in and it becomes easier to move about the country. Russia may have the larger army, but it does not have the larger force in theater. And that is the key caveat here. The way they prosecuted this war meant they had 30 days to win it. Now Russia has another 30-60 days to hang on to what its taken, and hopefully massively reinforce. If the battle lines have not meaningfully shifted by June, Ukraine is almost certainly going to counter attack.

The Russian Army is three sheets to the wind right now, and it seems nobody is daring to tell Putin this fundamental truth. Russia needs to initiate general mobilization now, and begin massively reinforcing its fronts in Ukraine with reserves and conscripts. If they don't the troops engaged are going to break. Its as simple as that. Even the best units cannot sustain 3 months of conventional warfare without rest, refit and reinforcement. All the units currently getting kicked in the teeth are going to need to be cycled to the rear and replaced with fresh units soon.

Look i try to be respectful on this internet bullying forum and thank you for your service in Iraq simper fi and all but i think you spent too much time downwind of burn pits in Iraq and having been in a conflict you should understand you have very little information about the true state of the conflict and shouldn't be spouting definitive statements about what is and must happen like a swivel eyed loon who has rediscovered an old cache of expired us army go pills

 

[Elbereth]

Nah they will be fine. They will just have to start doing what the USA does now. Sucking Xi's cock.

I think Ukraine is the one who is fuck

Ok big brain, tell me. Russia biggest export is gas and oil. China is has stable situation with energy: they have their suppliers who meet their demands. Even if they will get more gas, or more oil it doesnt mean they have use for it.

So, supposedly Putin gives China great deal. Much, much lower prices on gaz. But there is problem. There are no pipes that can supply china with additional gaz. They need to be build and that takes time. Not to mention another power plants.

 

[Kramer on the phone]

That is the war the west trained Ukraines Army to fight, but from what I am seeing this war has become something entirely different. An organized Light Infantry Army going up against a wholly mechanized Army...and winning. Ever since the US wars in the middle east, there has been debate in strategic circles as to just what is the most effective combat formation. Light Infantry or Armored. The US, having infinite money, went with the little girl solution. "Why not both?!" as such we have entire divisions of Light Infantry and entire divisions of Armored, with most forces being a weird hybrid capable of doing one or the other. This was aided by the fact that Light Infantry was ideal for counter insurgency. But the question remained as to whether or not they were effective against a peer power.

The logic as to WHY Light Infantry has suddenly become a subject of debate is due entirely to computer miniaturization. Computers have gotten small enough in the last 30 years that you don't need a massive truck or tank to hold the guidance system for a missile. You can fit the thing on the missile itself, and make the missile light enough to be carried by hand. Where before you need a 40 pound computer mounted to a truck in order to launch a guided missile at an attack helicopter, now you just need the equivalent of a 2 pound laptop. In essence, an infantry platoon dismounted is now capable of the same fire output as a mechanized unit 40 years ago.

There is the downside, in that dismounted infantry are not capable of advancing as far as vehicles, and can be exposed to enemy fire. At the same time though, light infantry is not restricted by fuel, or road access. In some cases, a Light Infantry Company can actually advance faster then an Armored Company as it is capable of straight line distance marching. Its also not restricted to roads in certain circumstances and is able to spread out. There is also the pure Machiavellian observation that a Light Infantry platoon is far cheaper to lose then a Tank platoon.

I think this war is ending the argument. The Tank as it exists now is functionally obsolete. Which is a huge problem for Russia, considering how tank heavy their Army is.

the Tank was developed right before the concept of mechanized infantry as a desperate attempt to solve the whole "get soldiers across no man's land alive" situation. even afterwards it was rarely better than mechanized infantry in most situations, outside of being a great show of force, light infantry is always the correct answer. for fucks sake if the defense contractors weren't the ones making the decisions it should have still been obvious when the bugs fought the US to a stalemate in korea.

 

[Mr Bunny]

what made putin chimp out and invade

Hmm monke

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

I'm of the opinion that they'll not really be occupying much of the country, honestly. Luhansk and Donetsk occupy themselves , so it's likely just going to be the coastal corridor, as that's the only part I think Russia is going to care about. Will they necessarily need to occupy the remainder of The Ukraine?

This is on top of the fact that The Ukraine isnt Afghanistan. There aren't quite so many squirrel holes and mountainous regions for insurgents to hang out in.

The western side of the country is quite forested and will be a serious pain in the ass, I also don't believe Russia intends to go for a full 100% conquest of the country either, they just lack the forces for it. My guess at this point is that the Russians will capture everything along the east of the Dnieper and maybe the coastline around Odessa as to make a land bridge with Moldova, specifically Transnistra, no idea how far north from the Black Sea this coastal conquest will reside, there is just no land features that would make a good natural border. I'm of the opinion that Ukraine is just never going to negotiate an ending to the war and Russia is going to be stuck holding these positions forcefully until the collapse of the Russian state or eventually retreat because of partisan attacks becoming unbearable.

 

[hooboy]

So, supposedly Putin gives China great deal. Much, much lower prices on gaz. But there is problem. There are no pipes that can supply china with additional gaz. They need to be build and that takes time. Not to mention another power plants.

yeah but in my strategy games you can just sell a product???

 

[Übertroon]

given that ukraine was doing joint exercises with NATO and getting stuffed with NATO gear they were a member in all but name. this kind of salami slicing is what made putin chimp out and invade

Okay. So they sacrificed a generation of men to kill some honorary NATOryans then

 

[kim foxx]

Ok big brain, tell me. Russia biggest export is gas and oil. China is has stable situation with energy: they have their suppliers who meet their demands. Even if they will get more gas, or more oil it doesnt mean they have use for it.

So, supposedly Putin gives China great deal. Much, much lower prices on gaz. But there is problem. There are no pipes that can supply china with additional gaz. They need to be build and that takes time. Not to mention another power plants.

There is a new pipeline being built from siberia to china for a 30-year gas deal:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

The chinese oil situation is stable up until operation taiwan happens and the USN blockades their shipping, which is why they're working on getting overland oil routes from iran and russia

 

[potato in mah painus]

The hohols are not winning . They're slowing the vodka niggers' advance, and making it rather harder than expected, but they are far from winning this war, christ.

This is also not an end to the argument of "Mech vs Motor", Russian tank doctrine has been rather... strange during this conflict. Other powers are likely to devise effective countermeasures to Javelins, Starstreaks/etc, be it through doctrine or technology.

Its more the zerg rush with cheap armor is no longer a viable strategy, that is what we are seeing play out right now. As a result the next generation of tanks are going to be bristled in point defenses and be stupid expensive.

 

[St.Davis]

I can tell you: cogs and gears of war machine falling off. Economic collapse, social unrest, or any other internal pressure.

Sure, and a meteor might hit the Kremlin tomorrow. I don't think these things are going to really happen.

nobody is asking how a poor as shit country that makes subsaharan africa look rich is capable of fielding europe's second biggest land force? obviously NATO was twinking them

NATO are presently, and very vocally, twinking The Ukraine. This isnt really new. Anyway, army size is practically meaningless as a statistic on its own, especially in comparison to Yuro forces, which have been so anemic that Orange Man got mad and insisted we start actually making an effort.

EDIT:

Ok big brain, tell me. Russia biggest export is gas and oil. China is has stable situation with energy: they have their suppliers who meet their demands. Even if they will get more gas, or more oil it doesnt mean they have use for it.

So, supposedly Putin gives China great deal. Much, much lower prices on gaz. But there is problem. There are no pipes that can supply china with additional gaz. They need to be build and that takes time. Not to mention another power plants.

This is the first i've heard of China having a stable energy situation. Didn't they have mandatory blackouts last year because they were retarded and cut off Australian Coal imports?

 

[737 MAX Stan Account]

Its been 30 days. And I would not call the Russian advance halted. Stopped dead in its tracks would be a more accurate statement. Russia had strategic surprise in the opening weeks of this war. That is going to change as the spring thaw sets in and it becomes easier to move about the country. Russia may have the larger army, but it does not have the larger force in theater. And that is the key caveat here. The way they prosecuted this war meant they had 30 days to win it. Now Russia has another 30-60 days to hang on to what its taken, and hopefully massively reinforce. If the battle lines have not meaningfully shifted by June, Ukraine is almost certainly going to counter attack.

The Russian Army is three sheets to the wind right now, and it seems nobody is daring to tell Putin this fundamental truth. Russia needs to initiate general mobilization now, and begin massively reinforcing its fronts in Ukraine with reserves and conscripts. If they don't the troops engaged are going to break. Its as simple as that. Even the best units cannot sustain 3 months of conventional warfare without rest, refit and reinforcement. All the units currently getting kicked in the teeth are going to need to be cycled to the rear and replaced with fresh units soon.

Damn nigga, you really put the "mindless" in "mindlessobserver"