Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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Biden should ask Venezuela for military equipment that the Ukrainians can use.

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When people think Erdogan is Putin's friend and not a frenemy.
 
This might be captured from the Ukranians, because this type of machinegun was spotted and made fun of by the russian telegrams yesterday.

Your version has a shield that's missing from the Ukranian one, so yea it's easily possible this is just irony and they ended up using the same model, or it's the same gun and the Russians took it, I just think it's odd to see this gun show up twice in two days.

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Translation:

(source)
Also archived:
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Either of them could plausibly have it in inventory, god knows the russian empire, and then the soviets built enough of them. It's a solid design, if a bit outdated.
 
infantry is vulnerable to everything though, especially light machine guns. whether they're moounted on an ifv, a bunker, a helicopter or somewhere else, if your dudes get spotted the'll drop like flies. it's especially bad out in the open where there is no cover.


im pretty sure infantry already had access to manpads (like stingers or the old redeyes) and anti tank missiles (panzerfaust, rpg7) 40 years ago. not high tech stuff like javelins and nlaws today, but good enough to get the job done.
It's not really relevant to the current war because Russia is practically throwing T-35s and Mosins in the well just for fun, but the utility of MBTs in shutting down lighter armor AND their incredible vulnerability to modern infantry anti-armor have been acknowledged.
Reformers got really high on the idea of putting MBT guns on smaller tanks, but this was both still too expensive and impractical. The modern goal is to procure secure and effective unmanned platforms and use these as a shield of sorts, then have the infantry on the same wave as them, then behind that medium/large unmanned platforms, and then behind that your MBTs. By stacking these tools in this way you minimize the risk to all parties and allow for much better asymmetric warfare engagements.
These unmanned platforms with modern procurement costs are about as expensive as a Javelin and can carry weapons that threaten medium or even heavy armor, so they trade up about as well as a single Javelin might or better, and on the defensive side they aren't multi-million dollar juicy targets like an Abrams.

Ya Russia has a long way to go if they want to catch up the the USA's civilian kill count. Maybe hold off on the Iraq comparisons for a bit and give them a chance to catch up :story:
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You are an illiterate retard. It's only partially your fault because the way it's being presented is incredibly misleading, but there are enough clues you could come to the correct conclusion just from that screenshot.
When they say "violent deaths," they are deliberately including the entire period and all deaths by all forces, not strictly those caused by or inflicted by US/Coalition soldiers. Essentially all of those are due to infighting between Iraqi insurgents and other Iraqi insurgents and a vast majority of the deaths are directly from the ISIS-government fighting phase of later years, known as "war in Iraq," not the Iraq war.

During the invasion phase of both 1990 and 2003, fewer than 10,000 civilians were killed. Estimates are 3664 and 7299 (per Iraqis, under 4300 otherwise) respectively. You can find some of these numbers on the exact same page you screenshotted, if only you bothered to read it:
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They are "probably underestimates" but they are also the overwhelming majority of US contribution. Even if you double that number, Russia is almost guaranteed to pass it.

Largely these were unpreventable or due to civilian presences at/near military sites. Russia is still in the invasion phase and is actively trying not to pass those numbers officially because it would make them look incredibly bad domestically and abroad. If you want to compare apples to apples, Russians in Chechnya during the second war killed directly somewhere around 50,000 civilians in the first year. Iraq's population was 20x-40x that of Chechnya, but Russia is responsible for around 300,000 total so-called "violent deaths" over their continuing occupation, far greater than most of the numbers you looked at. Likewise, for the first war that count was around 80,000. Setting aside Russian mercenaries, Russian armed forces showed up in Syria and tripled the Coalition's civilian toll in just a few years, only to fuck off again. If you swapped Russia with a responsible military force (even the US), potentially millions more people would be alive in these countries. It is that simple.

In Ukraine, some Russian troops are also actively engaged in the future deaths of tens of thousands of civilians by deliberately crippling healthcare infrastructure in major cities. It isn't clear that this was explicitly a military goal, instead it may be mostly accidental and due to horrible communications networks at the frontlines. Still, that's blood directly on their officers' hands, unlike the Coalition which was incredibly contained in its aggressions.
A million or two Ukrainians will likely die due to this war, though they are only likely to die violently if Russian occupation or subversion persists.

Edit: By the way, I qualified any responsible military as "even the US" because US soldiers are notoriously gunhappy and responsible for the most friendly fire incidents among the Coalition. This is especially in the Gulf war, things improved a lot by 2003. The point is that even the most gunhappy country in the entire West makes Russia look maniacal.
 
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Russia has committed about 80% of its regular troops (reformed as BTGs semi-recently as part of "modernization,") to Ukraine. There's no evidence that Ukraine will beat the bulk of these or even most, in fact they might not even make it through 30% or so of that 80% before Russia gets tangible wins. That alone would be a tremendous success, but not a win.
The open question isn't whether Ukraine can win, militarily, but if their political apparatus and economic consequences can climb so much that Putin shoots himself in the back of the head, or so steep he'll have to draw losses and make major concessions tantamount to Ukraine winning.
That's a big part of my predictions. If Russia somehow manages to play like a video game faction and send in absolutely everything with no repercussions, then Ukraine doesn't stand a chance. But for many previously noted political, strategic, and economic factors, Russia can't do that, or at least not without collapsing as a nation. Ukraine is bringing up another three armies' worth of troops (and that's just the Donbass veterans), and the aid is continuing to flow with nothing more than the occasional missile strike to disrupt it. Russia has some very serious obstacles it has to overcome very quickly (in strategic terms) if it wants to prevent this from turning into a quagmire, and even if they do manage to accomplish that, we have talked at length about the difficulties of occupation, which are bad enough without a collapsing economy making it very difficult to provide the reconstruction and relief required to get the people fat and happy enough to not find waging a guerilla campaign preferable.
 
People say this but I don't get it. Even if the numbers in the computer get spooky they'll still have the 24,000 miles of high speed trains, thousands of brand new bridges, vast hydroelectric dams, subway systems, and airports that they built instead of invading Iraq.
It's honestly a bit of a meme at this point to say that china's economy will collapse any minute, but we are seeing enough cracks that we know that something has to give eventually. Even without getting into pointless wars chinas construction gambits are anything but efficient and aren't built to last, let alone make money long term. I think the belt and road initiative is a bit of a hail mary for the chinese a bit like how that nordstream 2 pipeline was for russia. All the infrastructure in the world won't save you from a dwindling population and an inefficient corrupt economy.
 
To throw a bone to the NATO BAD retards, if you're going to talk about civilian casualties by the Coalition, at least talk about Afghanistan. Afghanistan was way messier than Iraq. The Kunduz hospital airstrike was and almost definitely still is a warcrime, even if they claim it was occupied by Taliban and have a decent amount of proof and so on. There's just a better way to handle these things.
Sure, briefly afterwards Russia bombed a dozen or so civilian-controlled hospitals in Syria as part of the Syrian State-sponsored bombing campaign (the pesky Coalition refused to target urban areas so closely). Sure, they've already hit a maternity ward and a couple of clinics in Mariupol. At least now you have one example of Coalition forces striking civilian infrastructure, instead of zero, right?

Occam's razor says that if the US acted like Russia, there would be reliable direct documentation of it, photos and videos and stories, as there is extensive documentation of Kunduz.
Outside of a few highly publicized events that occurred mainly during resistance phases in the wars, all you gullible bitches bring out are ad hoc numbers.
Meanwhile, they're still digging up civilian mass graves dug during the Russian invasion(s) of Chechnya.
The obvious answer for why that is: Russian doctrine is brutal and US doctrine is not. The US has money to spend on PGMs and tightly targeted weapons that hit the target and communications to light up the correct person, Russians do not. The Kremlin still marches out bigger, more indiscriminate weapons on the regular while US defense competes to make the sharpest, narrowest tool for the job and minimize casualties. The results speak for themselves even in the 90s, no doubt even more-so now.
 
Russian telegrams have been claiming for a few days that Azovites are becoming honorary troons to help them hide among civilians and escape Mariupol, since men are being checked for Nazi tattoos, and supposedly this is one of them being caught. (Source)
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lmao troon out to avoid justice, a fine American tradition. Someone tell Azov theyaren't in Seattle or New York.
 
Real world? Bruh.

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Putin pulled powermove on any country taking gas through Jamal pipe. Nobody, not even European politicians are stupid enough to trust him after that.
Lol, Bulgaria's politicians don't run the country, it's literally a country run by gangsters and crooks who are either Russian leaning, or EU/US leaning. Guess which direction 'Assen' and WCC lean? He's little more than a mouthpiece, powerless.
Take some time to learn who owns the countries energy suppliers. Also look at the cost of gas in Bulgaria compared to it's neighbours.
 
That was said on the Fareed Zakaria interview.
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Here's the clip. He admits all the Western nations told him there's no chance of Ukraine joining NATO.
If the cavalry isn't coming, Zelinsky (or his handlers) have to consider surrender to regroup his surviving forces into Western Ukraine, build up relations with Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European nations. Right now, his army has some prestige for holding out, but that prestige isn't going to be anything if they're dead from Russian encirclement. Yeah, I get that Russia is getting a pyrrhic victory out of it, but the only thing worse than that is a pyrrhic loss.
If Ukrainian deaths are confirmed, do they become ghosts of Kiev?
Perhaps Zelinsky is planning to rely upon an Army of the Dead.
California had all sorts of mines.
Good luck reopening one there, ever.

Go to the California EPA and tell them you want to start strip mining and processing palladium there. See how that goes :story:
Stuff like that is like steel mills. Once they are closed they are closed for ever. Modern US environmental laws make them impossible to rebuild.
Baja is in Mexico. It's that dangling peninsula right below it.
 
Why can't people just stay off social media while in a war zone? More people giving away location. From Intel Slava


A video appeared on TikTok with British mercenaries driving around in the vicinity of Kyiv.

Shane Matthews is proud to say that this is the first time he's crossed a bridge where the Russians were a couple of weeks ago. And this is again a virtual victory, because this particular bridge south of Irpin was never controlled by the RF Armed Forces - it was only under fire control.

34-year-old sniper Shane Matthews, 28-year-old Aiden Aislin and 48-year-old Sean Pinner went to Ukraine as part of the same group. Upon departure, they were all warned that in the UK they could face difficulties with the law. But this did not stop the British. Now they conduct medical training courses in Kyiv and periodically go to the front lines.

Thanks to TikToker Matthews, we now know that they are working near Irpin. Wait for the Caliber

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