War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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I really doubt it. There are big cultural differences and they are only growing bigger. Ukrainians resent getting invaded. Russians resent Ukrainians living better than them despite being niggers, unlike their master race. Russian mothers resent Ukraine for putting up the fight. If you listen to intercepted cell calls to Russia, most Russians in private aren't shocked with invasion and simply looking to get something out of it before getting shot. If Putin's support is 70-80%% official, I really doubt that it's much less, Russians love wars when they are winning. I've been watching this shit show since 2014 and their gloating when their overwhelming force shoots the opposition like fish in the barrel. Without Western aid this would be Ukraine. Certainly Putin isn't the one who flies sorties and loads shells in thousands of artillery pieces.

good segue

So you guys remember this bird who apparently "staged" a protest on Russian state TV, but there were some doubts about it since state TV runs "behind", it's not exactly live. She got fined, but otherwise was hailed as the brave woman who after years of peddling propaganda saw the light.

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well, you gonna shit bricks finding out that she, Maria Jane Fonda Ovsyanikova, appeared on Italian TV saying that western sanctions hurt Russian children and grandmas, but war in Ukraine is 100% Putin.


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Italy is the second consumer of Russian gas in EU after Germany.


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Good propaganda piece, but ultimately pointless as it elicited absolutely zero sympathy for Russians beyond what people already had - that those who oppose the war are suffering for the stupid mistakes of Putin.

This shit about Roman Abhromavich isn't surprising, apparently he went blind and his skin was peeling. He recovered after a week or so, but clearly he consumed just enough to send a very strong message to the oligarchs.

I said earlier in the thread that while I agree with sanctioning the oligarchs, I have a small degree of sympathy, because they are trapped in that system. Roman may or may not personally support Putin, he might hate him for all we know, but he can't express that. He can't act on it, because if he does he will die and excrutiating public execution that will serve as a warning to others - making personal resistance self defeating.

Putin obviously needs the Gaddafi treatment, but the FSB need purged. Otherwise, that's a country that will never change and will remain a danger to life on earth until their nuclear weapons become so poorly maintained they can't launch anymore. Either way, the West should cut economic ties with then thoroughly for the foreseeable future to limit their development, let them be China's puppet at least they may keep them somewhat in check.
 
Yeah I think land bridge to Crimea was one of the most important things Russians actually wanted, I just don't think they thought it would cost this much or require nearly leveling everything on the way there.

I don't think they're going to stop until they at least have the land bridge and whole regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, really it depends on how many more soldiers they're willing to lose, it's Russia so I bet the number is huge.

I wouldn't believe any talk of ceasefire unless Russians take all their shit and leave, if they do offer one up it would only be so they can regroup.

We'll see I guess, it's either coming to an end or it's going to get even uglier now.
I'm wondering how well they'll hold on to that territory after all that. The Ukrainians retook land around Kherson and now they're on the outskirts of that city. Mariupol's been glassed and now the Russians would have to defend from a city that they destroyed.
 

Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks​

Requests include Kyiv dropping Nato pursuit in exchange for security guarantees and EU membership​


Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the European Union if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised. The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.

Envoys from both sides meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.

David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s party in parliament and a member of Kyiv’s negotiating team, told the FT the parties were close to agreement on the security guarantees and Ukraine’s EU bid but urged caution about prospects for a breakthrough.

“All the issues” have been “on the table since the beginning” of negotiations but “lots of points — like in every single item there are unresolved points”, Arakhamia said.

Another person briefed on the talks said Ukraine was concerned that Russia was shifting its position almost day by day, both in terms of military pressure and on demands like Kyiv’s “demilitarisation.”

Russia “can’t and won’t talk about progress” because “it could only harm the negotiating process”, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, was quoted by Interfax on Monday. “For now, unfortunately, we cannot speak of any significant achievements and breakthroughs”, he added.

As part of the agreement under consideration, Ukraine would also refrain from developing nuclear weapons, or hosting foreign military bases in addition to abandoning its pursuit of Nato membership.

In exchange, Ukraine would get what Arakhamia called “wording close to Nato’s Article 5” — whereby the alliances’ members must come to each others’ aid if one is attacked — for security guarantees from countries including Russia, the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel, and Turkey.

Any prospective agreement, however, would have to be agreed with the guarantors and ratified by their parliaments, Zelensky said on Sunday.

The prospective guarantors have yet to agree to uphold Ukraine’s security, the people said. “We do not have any rejections so far,” Arakhamia said.

Ukraine would put the deal to a referendum in several months’ time before changing its constitution, said Zelensky — a process that could require at least a year.

“The only resolved [issue] is the type of international guarantees Ukraine is looking for, but . . . we still have to get the approval from the guarantors otherwise the deal will never fly,” Arakhamia said.

The draft communiqué under consideration leaves the biggest sticking point — Ukraine’s attempts to reclaim territory seized by Russia since 2014 — to be settled in a tentative future discussion by Putin and Zelensky, the people said.

Moscow, Arakhamia said, was demanding that Ukraine recognise Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, as well as two territories run by Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

“We will never recognise any kind of borders except as they are in our Declaration of Independence,” Arakhamia said. “This is the most critical point.”

For now, Ukraine was prepared to discuss some humanitarian issues, such as restoring Crimea’s water supply and pledging never to try to retake the peninsula by force, the people said.

If a ceasefire holds, Ukraine and Russia’s foreign ministers would then meet to draft separate documents to finalise the security guarantees and further agreements on social issues such as protection of the Russian language in Ukraine. This would then be followed by attempts to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, although Peskov on Monday said there had been “no movement” on arranging such an encounter.

 
protection of the Russian language in Ukraine.
No way, it's not going to happen. It's either misinformation to protect the actual contents of the negotiation or Zelensky is done for. "protection of Russian speakers" became such a meme that if Russia somehow manages to push that point in, then it'll be a huge demoralizing factor and a huge of loss of trust towards the government.

And no, this isn't me advocating for continued fighting. This is me being disappointed that the prospect that Ukraine is planning to discuss things with Putin's Russia, at this point famously unreliable entity.
 

Russia no longer demanding Ukraine be ‘denazified’ in ceasefire talks​

Requests include Kyiv dropping Nato pursuit in exchange for security guarantees and EU membership​


Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the European Union if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised. The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.

Envoys from both sides meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.

David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s party in parliament and a member of Kyiv’s negotiating team, told the FT the parties were close to agreement on the security guarantees and Ukraine’s EU bid but urged caution about prospects for a breakthrough.

“All the issues” have been “on the table since the beginning” of negotiations but “lots of points — like in every single item there are unresolved points”, Arakhamia said.

Another person briefed on the talks said Ukraine was concerned that Russia was shifting its position almost day by day, both in terms of military pressure and on demands like Kyiv’s “demilitarisation.”

Russia “can’t and won’t talk about progress” because “it could only harm the negotiating process”, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, was quoted by Interfax on Monday. “For now, unfortunately, we cannot speak of any significant achievements and breakthroughs”, he added.

As part of the agreement under consideration, Ukraine would also refrain from developing nuclear weapons, or hosting foreign military bases in addition to abandoning its pursuit of Nato membership.

In exchange, Ukraine would get what Arakhamia called “wording close to Nato’s Article 5” — whereby the alliances’ members must come to each others’ aid if one is attacked — for security guarantees from countries including Russia, the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel, and Turkey.

Any prospective agreement, however, would have to be agreed with the guarantors and ratified by their parliaments, Zelensky said on Sunday.

The prospective guarantors have yet to agree to uphold Ukraine’s security, the people said. “We do not have any rejections so far,” Arakhamia said.

Ukraine would put the deal to a referendum in several months’ time before changing its constitution, said Zelensky — a process that could require at least a year.

“The only resolved [issue] is the type of international guarantees Ukraine is looking for, but . . . we still have to get the approval from the guarantors otherwise the deal will never fly,” Arakhamia said.

The draft communiqué under consideration leaves the biggest sticking point — Ukraine’s attempts to reclaim territory seized by Russia since 2014 — to be settled in a tentative future discussion by Putin and Zelensky, the people said.

Moscow, Arakhamia said, was demanding that Ukraine recognise Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, as well as two territories run by Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

“We will never recognise any kind of borders except as they are in our Declaration of Independence,” Arakhamia said. “This is the most critical point.”

For now, Ukraine was prepared to discuss some humanitarian issues, such as restoring Crimea’s water supply and pledging never to try to retake the peninsula by force, the people said.

If a ceasefire holds, Ukraine and Russia’s foreign ministers would then meet to draft separate documents to finalise the security guarantees and further agreements on social issues such as protection of the Russian language in Ukraine. This would then be followed by attempts to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, although Peskov on Monday said there had been “no movement” on arranging such an encounter.

This sounds like nonsense to me, not in that I don't believe the discussions are going in this direction - but ultimately, these security guarantees are unlikely to be agreed.

The reason NATO is so useful is that the repurcussions for not adhering to Article 5 are severe in terms of the credibility of that alliance, which in turn undermines the security of all members.

If the US, UK, Turkey etc are not willing to get involved against Russia now, why would a security agreement outside of NATO change be in their interests? Mind you, Kyiv could likely just wait for Putin to die, declare that they think a change in Russian government means the deal is no longer valid and then join NATO.

While I except these are mostly used for posturing, the huge reduction in terms of Russian demands is fairly telling for what Moscow thinks it's prospectus is going forward.
 
The article literally says that the draft doesn't contain that.
You misunderstand. The article implies that if they negotiate a ceasefire and actually arrange for neutrality status and no foreign bases (which is also going to be a massive demoralizing factor, as it will be viewed as basically kowtowing to Russia and validating their propaganda narrative), any future agreements regarding any sort of social issues suggested by Russia will not be implemented or they will be a cause of future social instability.

This war has soured the public opinion of Russia so much, they will want to have nothing do to with it for the next few decades and no smart government will actually follow through on any deals with Russia.
 
You misunderstand. The article implies that if they negotiate a ceasefire and actually arrange for neutrality status and no foreign bases (which is also going to be a massive demoralizing factor, as it will be viewed as basically kowtowing to Russia and validating their propaganda narrative), any future agreements regarding any sort of social issues suggested by Russia will not be implemented or they will be a cause of future social instability.

This war has soured the public opinion of Russia so much, they will want to have nothing do to with it for the next few decades and no smart government will actually follow through on any deals with Russia.
Zelensky has said any deal would need to go to a referendum in Ukraine.

This is a smart move: For one, because it will absolve him of being the cause of any revanchist attitudes in Ukraine. It won't be a "great betrayal" that could lead to further issues. Two, it means any deal presented to the Ukrainian people will need to be at least palatable.

Since the terms won't be entirely dictated by Russia because they've had their asses kicked - it could lead to a more acceptable outcome.

Fuck knows what it will be though.
 
You misunderstand. The article implies that if they negotiate a ceasefire and actually arrange for neutrality status and no foreign bases (which is also going to be a massive demoralizing factor, as it will be viewed as basically kowtowing to Russia and validating their propaganda narrative), any future agreements regarding any sort of social issues suggested by Russia will not be implemented or they will be a cause of future social instability.

This war has soured the public opinion of Russia so much, they will want to have nothing do to with it for the next few decades and no smart government will actually follow through on any deals with Russia.
I think at this point any kind of "peace" will be treated as time to get ready for another go at it. Putin made his goals very clear, he won't back down but he needs time to rebuild and regroup so at least a few years and surely would accept a "pyrrhic victory" to buy himself that time.

Then it's really up to everyone else whether they prepare, keep the sanctions going, keep dumping their dependence on russian resources and prepare for him or believe in Putin's "Pwetty pinky sweeaw I won't poke ukwaine with wockets anymowe" and go back to business as usual which, if that happens, I hope entire western hemisphere gets flattened because it'd be hopeless.
 
Not sure when this was filmed, but it just looks bad, they should have proper armored infantry vehicles.....

Those Russian "assault pickups" remind me of one of the rare inventions to come out of Africa - aka the Somalian "technical" that US forces encountered while on a mission to that diseased country back in 1993:

TECHNICAL MOUNTED WITH MACHINE GUN.jpg
 

79 megs, nearly 10 mins, but Captain Bohdan Krotevych, who's identified as the Avoz Chief of Staff, talks of Russian forces (Army plus those Novoyarossiya D/L PR militia) occupying large portions of the mostly destroyed city, albeit at the cost of suffering heavy losses.

source

FO8kFhnWQAMMfVX.jpg

A couple of rifles currently owned by #Ukrainian SOF/#FOG members. Two customized SIG MCX Virtus rifles equipped with a Sig SRD556 QD suppressor, Trijicon ACOG scope, Aimpoint RDS and ATPIAL can be seen.
source (SOF means Special Operations Forces [wiki article, a bit outdated] FOG is Foreign Observation Group, foreign special forces vets)



source

A Russian counter to the hitherto very successful Ukrainian UAVs, original vid is from Russian MoD Telegram channel. Now the unanswered question is how successful are Russian counter-measures. They jammed and shot down the mainly Soviet vintage UAVs (perhaps other systems too but they posed no known problem) in the 2013 Donbass war, but seem a bit lost now.
 
some comments on the POW torture vid:

the points of this being fake are these:

1. None of the Ukrainian nationalists have identifying shevrons or badges that would id them as such

2. a. The blue tape is wrapped around an arm in 1-1.5 turn. Making such a wide band makes no sense, uncomfortable to wear but looks well and stand out in the video.
b. No other "nationalists" in the background wear blue bands which is sus

3. From point blank shot there is no blood or screams of pain

4. Weapons, dress and especially actions are more characteristic of a private military company (ChVK)





There were talks of "zagrad squads" ala WWII, where rear guards would shoot anyone retreating. This may be it, basically capturing some troops trying to surrender or turning back and getting some PR out of it?
 
some comments on the POW torture vid:

the points of this being fake are these:

1. None of the Ukrainian nationalists have identifying shevrons or badges that would id them as such

2. a. The blue tape is wrapped around an arm in 1-1.5 turn. Making such a wide band makes no sense, uncomfortable to wear but looks well and stand out in the video.
b. No other "nationalists" in the background wear blue bands which is sus

3. From point blank shot there is no blood or screams of pain

4. Weapons, dress and especially actions are more characteristic of a private military company (ChVK)


View attachment 3118787


There were talks of "zagrad squads" ala WWII, where rear guards would shoot anyone retreating. This may be it, basically capturing some troops trying to surrender or turning back and getting some PR out of it?
Just FYI there's a continuation for that video on the very same channel, where you can see them bleed. I also thought it was weird at first.
But if it's Wagner, I wouldn't put it past them to actually shoot "their own" for something like this.
It's also worth pointing out they don't speak a word of Ukrainian throughout the whole thing, which is quite unusual.

I thought everyone was over taking Tim Pool seriously
 
Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the European Union if it remains military non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.
Huh? That doesn't sound like a military superpower that's holding the upper hand, those terms sound like they're coming from someone trying to bail from imminent defeat.
 
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