The whole thing with negotiations may be fake and gay, but if it's true, that leaves two general possibilities:
1) West deescalates. That'll allow Putin to regroup and consolidate his power. Therefore, Russian revanchist delusions will become even stronger, more resources will be diverted to military-industrial complex and in 10ish years you can expect Z-army "take two" on Ukraine. There's a small possibility of coup, but its beneficiaries would likely be even more hawkish than Putin. In the end, you'd still have a ticking time bomb that hasn't been defused (or, in Russkies' newspeak, "denazified and demilitarized"). In general, I consider it as a bad ending.
2) West will continue to mount pressure until Putin is removed from power. That'll have profound consequences. Russian agriculture industry is heavily dependent on Western industrial components and machinery. In 6-10 months, Russia will start losing its industrial and transportation capabilities. Planes will start crashing, crops will rot in the fields not being harvested, production and repair of tanks and IFVs will stop. If the West is smart enough, they'll start nurture separatist movements at this moment. At first, it would be economic separatism (local governments hoarding food and products to keep the population satisfied. And since governor's KPI are linked to popular support, the Kremlin would be satisfied, too.), later the regions will realize that Russia is a toxic brand and will seek ways to distance themselves from it. Why should KhMAO send its oil taxes to Moscow when its oil industry is crippled by sanctions imposed on Russia? Why Tatarstan should lose all export revenue from KAMAZ? Why Kirovskaya oblast or Karelia should suffer from cutting their ties to Finnish furniture makers?
Well, there is a solution: balkanize Russia. That's unfathomably based. At last, Russian people will be free from homogenizing central authority of Moscow. At last, different regions and nations will be able to have different laws. tax codes and ideology. At last, long and painful decay of Russian Empire will reach its end.
The West has one in a lifetime opportunity to curate the final solution to Russian Empire problem. I hope they won't blow it.
