Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[NevskyProspekt]

thats a good point
mariupol is like what, just a couple dozen miled away from DPR controlled territory? and it's a relatively small city, just a couple hundred thousand inhabitants, defended by a pretty small force of ukr soldiers (plus a couple hundred azov militiamen) and it's still holding out for over a month against the besieging russian army, an army that was often considered on par or even superior to the chinese army.

the chinese trying to land on taiwan and taking its cities would be a much more difficult operation than what the russians are facing in mariupol, and much uglier and bloodier for both sides as a result. they might actually decide that it's not worth the trouble and go all-in on trying to create some diplomatic or political way towards eventual reunification.

Not just that. Taiwan is one of the most mountainous islands on earth. Once you make it past the flatter plains near the shoreline, it's a giant forested wall of rock 3500 meters high. Lots of places for long-term defensive guerrilla movements by the Taiwanese. Any attempts at conquering the Yushan, Chungyang, and Xueshan ranges are going to be an enormous pain in the ass.

 

[Stoneheart]

incidentally, it seems the snows have just returned around central Europe. lmao Putin...you could've given the EU a nice little scare if you just held firm, but now you have lost the favor of General Winter with this unacceptable postponement!

there is snow outside, can confirm.

 

[Dreamer]

Maybe I'm wrong but isn't this the "serious" thread. That's why obviously the people and their takes are more substantial and - albeit with a subjective undertone - nearer to the truth than the sperging of some NATO larpers in the cheeki breeki gulag.

One is supposed to be a discussion tread (this one), the other a news tread (the other one)
Maybe unsurprisingly the one that relies on fefes and "alternative media" is pro-Russian and the one relying on European/american media is pro-Ukrainian.

Both are ultimately shit but seeing the immediate asshurt because of a word or a sentence that stuck maybe too close to home makes me dislike this one more.

 

[Precious Bodily Fluids]

If Taiwanboos have convinced themselves of that, they're dumb. China wouldn't fight the same way as Russia. To start, they'd create some political excuse to blockade the island and demand some form of surrender, while Chinese assets embedded in Taiwan quickly updated their intel on the locations of Taiwanese defense hardware and troop positions.

Should the Taiwanese government refuse to surrender, the invasion would begin with sustained missile, rocket and artillery strikes to wipe out most Taiwanese defensive capabilities within 48 hours. There will be almost nowhere to hide. The ROC air force and navy would cease to exist in that 48 hours. Some AA can be saved by turning off the radar and hiding, but most will be lost in an attempt to resist the air attack.

Then China has two main options: physically invade now, or maintain a naval blockade and air strikes until Taiwanese decide they love Xi. Depending on how cruel they're feeling, they could easily deny 24 million people on the island food, electricity and water until they're more receptive. There will be no relief, any US carrier group or Jap task force sailing close enough to Taiwan to enter the fight would be well within range of multiple overlapping Chinese defense layers.

The boots on the ground operation itself would be the last resort only undertaken after maximum carnage has already been delivered to the ROC military, it's not easy crossing 100 miles of strait and landing troops and armor on contested beach. Lots of E-1's will be sacrificed for China. But they'll do so with complete control of the air and sea, precision strikes against holdouts, and Chinese fifth columnists causing maximum chaos on the island. It's not gonna be a fair fight, and no amount of preparation and planning can change the outcome unless Taipei gets nukes or something.

It's good that you took into account the difficulty of a frontal assault. One problem with the idea of starving out the Taiwanese though is that China itself would pay a steep price in sanctions. The strategy would be declared a war crime against civilians and China would become an international pariah like Russia has.

Japan and the US wouldn't necessarily have to launch a relief assault on Taiwan either, they could attempt to blockade Chinese trade instead. With no food imports and no product exports then China would be in a lot of trouble.

I don't see it happening. Xi doesn't feel under pressure to take big risks the way Putin does.

 

[01169]

incidentally, it seems the snows have just returned around central Europe. lmao Putin...you could've given the EU a nice little scare if you just held firm, but now you have lost the favor of General Winter with this unacceptable postponement!

Yeah too bad. Now Putin has to settle for only the €€€ he's getting for the gas.

Both sides pretty much cant stop this agreement.

Yeah but Putin doesn't have to care how it looks.

The EU? Not so much. It is simply not possible to sustain the German industry without Russian gas. And the German government is anti nuclear power. So this will end in importing electricity from France (nuclear) and Poland (coal). Soon people will start asking questions on why Ukraine is worth ruining their lives.

 

[01169]

One is supposed to be a discussion tread (this one), the other a news tread (the other one)

You seem to have the threads confused. This one is "happenings" and the other one is "deep thoughts" (that culminate in "hahaha monkee banan").

 

[Elbereth]

Yeah too bad. Now Putin has to settle for only the €€€ he's getting for the gas.


Yeah but Putin doesn't have to care how it looks.

The EU? Not so much. It is simply not possible to sustain the German industry without Russian gas. And the German government is anti nuclear power. So this will end in importing electricity from France (nuclear) and Poland (coal). Soon people will start asking questions on why Ukraine is worth ruining their lives.

You migh as well say that some Russian will start asking question if keeping Putin in power is worth hot water, or butter.

 

[Lord Edge of Leetworth]

>Russia
>military second only to the US
>great thread to The West™
>a sleeping bear, which could wake up and tear you any moment
>for years shows off how advanced their military technology is
>decided to strike Ukraine
>not because they need it in any way, just for lulz
>declares this is war on NATO or something
>we will gety Kyiv in 72h!
>this war progresses faster than Nazi invasion on Poland!
>this war progresses faster than US invasion on Iraq!
>we destroyed their air force and air defence!
>Russia strong!
>...
>38 days latter
>captured 1 major city
>hasnt gain any ground in like 20 days
>Russian air force is endangered species now
>over 500 documented tank losses
>7 generals dead
>all this losses and NATO hasnt even show up
>2 Ukraine hellicopters casualy walk into Russia territory and blow their fuel
>escape unscatterd
>AMERICA HASN'T FOUGHT SUCCESFULL WAR IN DECADES

Is this what being Polish feels like?

 

[Stoneheart]

The EU? Not so much. It is simply not possible to sustain the German industry without Russian gas. And the German government is anti nuclear power. So this will end in importing electricity from France (nuclear) and Poland (coal). Soon people will start asking questions on why Ukraine is worth ruining their lives.

France and Poland are not producing enough energy for that to work. natgas is also used to produce all kind of chemicals.

You migh as well say that some Russian will start asking question if keeping Putin in power is worth hot water, or butter.

We have tested this alot of times, Russians can endure much more than germans without starting to rebel.
chances for the EU and Nato breaking from this are higher than putin losing power.

 

[The Last Boyscout]

Yeah too bad. Now Putin has to settle for only the €€€ he's getting for the gas.


Yeah but Putin doesn't have to care how it looks.

The EU? Not so much. It is simply not possible to sustain the German industry without Russian gas. And the German government is anti nuclear power. So this will end in importing electricity from France (nuclear) and Poland (coal). Soon people will start asking questions on why Ukraine is worth ruining their lives.

I feel this question of time is pretty pertinent when it comes to all of these debates about economy and energy. everyone feels the pressure to virtue signal right now (and Putin feels the pressure to look stronk on the other side), but if this thing keeps dragging on for 6 months or more, with the military situation not changing too significantly in the interim, I think at that point we'll see which side REALLY has the guts for a prolonged slugfest. a lot of folks are betting that the West has no stomach for it, with good reason...but TBH we don't really know for sure how much of those Russian 'approval polls' are at least somewhat accurate or just straight up skewed for current propaganda needs. time will tell, I think...by the end of this year we'll definitely know a whole lot more about both, what's actually happening at this exact moment that is of the most paramount significance AND also a much clearer picture of the long-term consequences too.

 

[Richardface]

A story about gas in 4 acts
View attachment 3136193
View attachment 3136194
View attachment 3136195
View attachment 3136196

Sometimes laughter serves to hide tears. Are you ok, fren?

 

[White_N]

This is an exclusive video from the liberated Izum of the Kharkiv region.


Crossing the Seversky Donets River and Mount Kremenets, the battles for which lasted almost three weeks. From there, the AFU corrected artillery fire. Now the Izum have been released, and the Victory Banner has been hoisted on Kremenets.

 

[UVB-76]

Another amazing educational material for Ukrainian schoolchildren is a book on how to assemble and use mines, grenades, and other explosive devices.

Oh noes
Anyway

 

[Elbereth]

Sometimes laughter serves to hide tears. Are you ok, fren?

>Putin made pussy move of not acting on a thread
>are you ok, fren?

are you a bot?

 

[The Last Boyscout]

One is supposed to be a discussion tread (this one), the other a news tread (the other one)
Maybe unsurprisingly the one that relies on fefes and "alternative media" is pro-Russian and the one relying on European/american media is pro-Ukrainian.

Both are ultimately shit but seeing the immediate asshurt because of a word or a sentence that stuck maybe too close to home makes me dislike this one more.

you are projecting the 'asshurt' very mightly there, along with saying that you rely exclusively on western media as to what they should think/perceive, speaks volumes of the kinds of people that frequent your favored thread. maybe you should fuck off back there, before your own 'fefes' get hurt here. or don't and keep shitting up the thread without bringing anything of value to it - we can live with that here too.

 

[mr.moon1488]

You meant to say "an opinion".

Well, some of you do. I'm sorry but an "lol" isn't enough to mask that.

>Well, some of you do. I'm sorry but an "lol" isn't enough to mask that
You really should at least skim threads before making really retarded hot takes. We have at least one pro-Ukie fag thread banned for cooming to dead Russian soldiers, and Ukie soldiers regularly post shit online of them pissing on bodies or torturing EPWs. This isn't even getting into the shit the Ukrainian army has been bragging about doing to civilians like stripping their pants off and taping them to posts. The fact that you haven't run into any of this here despite it being a fairly regular thing indicates that you're too lazy to even take a few minutes to thumb through an admittedly long thread and thought you'd get a bunch of updoots by posting some vapid take everyone would agree with.

 

[01169]

Oh noes
Anyway

Fun recreational activity. Remember cup stacking? That is why the West will fail.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Oh noes
Anyway

We had school gun clubs all over the US before liberals found that too scary.

 

[Richardface]

Stages of grief:
denial
anger
bargaining
depression
paying in rubles

Head of German chemical union says half his 600k members are in danger of losing their job if Russian gas is cut off

SilverPhytoPatho (@PathoPhyto)

President of Germany's IG BCE chemical workers union Michael Vassiliadis, said around 250 000 employees in the chemical industry in Germany is at risk of loosing their job next week. IG BCE has 600 000 members...

nitter.net

Head of BASF, operator of Germany's largest chemical plant, says he will be forced to lay off 40k workers if Russian natural gas is cut off

https://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/basf-chef-warnt-vor-gas-embargo-schaeden-fuer-deutsche-volkswirtschaft-17925528.html

I'm sure German workers and business community are OK with being impoverished and going through the great depression again to keep Ukraine safe for US corruption

 

[Richardface]

>Putin made pussy move of not acting on a thread
>are you ok, fren?

are you a bot?