Observations and opinions...
Still think Putin may say something on 9 May to the extent that "We've punished the Ukrainians enough and are stopping on the present line." Unilateral cease-fire, responding only if attacked. More and more, the fight is being taken to Russia, what with all the fires. Those fires so far have happened at military/military-related targets. But let enough time go by and who knows what could happen, say, coordinated bomb attacks at several Moscow Metro stations during rush hour.
Surely Putin realizes the war is now a grind, his generals are getting killed right and left, Ukraine won't run out of support from outside, and the sanctions on Russia will continue. Not only that, Vlad has only himself to thank for Sweden and Finland applying to NATO, as well as the Russian conventional military's shot reputation. Suggest the Russian conventional military has been so damaged by this war that they couldn't succeed against NATO at all, conventionally. China must also be watching, with their own concerns.
Have heard Putin has mentioned "mobilization". Hmmm...wonder how many will show up, with what they have heard about the war, and seeing so many return in boxes. Wonder how the Russian Army could support those mobilized logistically, when they have the greatest difficulties supporting those already in the field. Where will the additional trucks come from, for example? Civilian sector? Do that enough, you can hurt the economy at home, and keep in mind most civilian trucks aren't built for military use.
Believe it's long past time for Vlad to play the magnanimous victor and cut his losses. Otherwise, the grind will go on, likely for many months to come.