Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

Should the title be re-worded to expand the scope of the thread?

  • The US Trucking Crisis of 2021 works fine

    Votes: 25 9.4%
  • The US Logistics Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 30 11.2%
  • The US Transportation Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • The US Supply Chain Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 35 13.1%
  • Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021

    Votes: 206 77.2%

  • Total voters
    267
  • Poll closed .
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tl;dr: CPC will continue lockdowns until the 20th National Party Congress is held. This will occur at earliest in June and most likely in September/August. Pucker your assholes lads and lasses.
By the way, the English article is missing much of the nuance in the Chinese one, go figure.

Translation -- Hoard every spare part and device component there's even the slimmest chance you might need in the next year+ unless you want to find your asscheeks twisting in the wind if and when something breaks. I hate this gay clown earth.
 
Translation -- Hoard every spare part and device component there's even the slimmest chance you might need in the next year+ unless you want to find your asscheeks twisting in the wind if and when something breaks. I hate this gay clown earth.
My risk assessment as follows:
1% Chance of Civil war mk.2 Make Taiwan China again
3% Chance of China getting in a fight with Vietnam
10% we get the sequel to 1989 Tiananmen square if the younger/civilian CPC members tell Xi and his generalsto fuck off (We saw this happen earlier with China's stance on Russia) in the 20th National Party Congress.
75% Chance the CPC doesn't loosen restrictions because they are running into issues making the mRNA vaccines.
1% Chance that they end the lock downs.
10% Chance of Sino-Indian war mk III. They are building a dam in Tibet that is the upstream of the ཡར་ཀླུངས་གཙང་པོ (Brahmaputra River) and will divert a majority of the water. This one will be fun to watch. Indians got the logistical advantage, but their military historically is shittier than China. China has like 1 (maybe 2, not sure if they finished building it) bridge the Indian need to bomb to fuck over the logistics chain and force a 800 mile detour.

Supply chain gonna get fucked harder regardless. Part of the issue is China has too many old people, and on top of that, air quality and food quality is shit, which leads to many physical body ailments like hyperthyroidism in women due to the government monopoly on salt.
 
So something odd I have noted recently.

There have been a large amount of recalls recently.
It's because the Chinese producers are swapping for shittier components from a subcontractor who subbing parts from an even shittier subcontractor, or not bothering to read the specs sheet properly.
If you know where to look, shit is cheap in China if you can find stuff that was made extra in case Q/C failures. I remember being able to find Core2Extremes back in the day for about 350 RMB (~50 USD)
Better case in point... I bought a set of never used PLA camo for like 50 RMB (~7 USD) thing is, the sleeves were off by 2 inches and the pants had one leg an inch longer.
 
It's because the Chinese producers are swapping for shittier components from a subcontractor who subbing parts from an even shittier subcontractor, or not bothering to read the specs sheet properly.
If you know where to look, shit is cheap in China if you can find stuff that was made extra in case Q/C failures. I remember being able to find Core2Extremes back in the day for about 350 RMB (~50 USD)
Better case in point... I bought a set of never used PLA camo for like 50 RMB (~7 USD) thing is, the sleeves were off by 2 inches and the pants had one leg an inch longer.
If the West had competent rulers, this whole debacle would be create a more robust supply chain network, using a combination of onshore manufacturing and number of sources for redundancy (because, remember, diversity is our strength).

Sadly, we do not, so as soon everything is back to 'normal', they are going back everything Made In China. At best, we would get manufacturing moved out of China to somewhere else, but they would probably still be concentated in a somewhere else that would have same vulnerabilities.
 
If the West had competent rulers, this whole debacle would be create a more robust supply chain network, using a combination of onshore manufacturing and number of sources for redundancy (because, remember, diversity is our strength).

Sadly, we do not, so as soon everything is back to 'normal', they are going back everything Made In China. At best, we would get manufacturing moved out of China to somewhere else, but they would probably still be concentated in a somewhere else that would have same vulnerabilities.
Currently its moving to northern Vietnam.... and wait for it... ran by Chinese people who get the Vietnamese who speak Chinese to manage for them.

On the other hand, the US and China are in a race to finish an entire semiconductor supply chain in safe areas (In the US or in China). Expect a shooting war of some sort if they finish roughly in the same time.
I believe right now it doesn't matter what you are, if you can design the machines for <12nm chips (or the process), the government gives you a literal blank check and guarantees you your identity and you become one of those with a direct line to Xi Jinping, the standing committee, and any MSS/PLA officer.
 
So something odd I have noted recently.

There have been a large amount of recalls recently.
I noticed that too. I initially wrote it off because I figured I'd 'made the mistake' of clicking on one of those articles once and now the shitty Google feed algorithm thinks I'm fascinated by recall news and it's all I want to hear about ever again, but even if that were true the sheer number of recalls seems alarming.
 
So something odd I have noted recently.

There have been a large amount of recalls recently.

What @兄貴 Forevermore said, as well as it seems like QC has taken a dump across the board to boot. I don't know if you've been spectating computer hardware and software news the last year and a half or so, but it seems like there's been more frequent, severe, and stupid issues that have gotten through the system than usual, and it's taken longer to fix them (if they get fixed at all), affecting most of the major players like AMD, NVidia, ASUS, MSI, etc. Not even going to get into Microsoft's descent into whatever category lies below "meme status". (This is all anecdata I know, and worth as much as a fart on the breeze, but hey, it was free to read.) I assume a lot of this has to do with the ongoing problems with staffing and management, as well as overwork/burnout.
 
This might be a bit odd, but has anyone noticed that elevators tend to be broken longer? At my apartment, at my father's apartment, and at my work site there have been multi-week breakdowns this year. I managed to get a hold of one tech and ask him why it was taking so long and he blamed it on parts scarcity.

(EDIT: I got a hold of the building manager of the current fiasco. Parts supply issue, they're having to ship something in from the east coast. That's 2/3 outages I've experienced blamed specifically on supply issues causing a shortage in this half of the country.)
its probably a parts supply issue, but low-voltage techs and repair men for stuff like elevators/escalators,etc have been in extremely high demand since covid. if i had to guess a fuck load of boomers that went into those trades out of high school are now retiring. beyond that no one is applying, i remember only 4 people applied for a fire alarm tech last year, and the employer straight up said name your price for hourly.(they hired everyone that said anything less than $20/hr) i suspect a lot of these tradesmen sectors are already in the "firm handshake" type of desperation for employees. of course maybe if they raised the wage to something over 33% minimum wage they'd get more applicants. seriously though, 4 people applied meanwhile 500 people applied to work the counter at a smoke shop in the same area for the same amount of money.

Another reason to worry is that all those mcmansions from the 2000s are starting to get fucked up because of how old the construction materials in them are, lots of building made cheap and quick because the house would be sold multiple times by the 20 year mark.

I've read a theory that the many fires and accidents at food processing plants are caused by delayed maintenance and overwork.
this is the first time in about a decade i've seen job listings for fire techs so that may be it too.
Translation -- Hoard every spare part and device component there's even the slimmest chance you might need in the next year+ unless you want to find your asscheeks twisting in the wind if and when something breaks. I hate this gay clown earth.
This is my favorite part about the chinese. unlike MAD back in the Cold War, the chinks don't have any way to fuck up the US. but they have the 3GD, and its been like a giant self-destruct button the past 15 years, literally dozens of countries have the tech to blow the fucker up, and yet they still do this shit. Its like being pushed around by a bratty little girl, at any point they could be fucking destroyed, they are so fucking weak its amazing. Yet it doesn't matter because they take full advantage of the current climate to make sure they get away with being as annoyingly evil as possible.
 
I've read a theory that the many fires and accidents at food processing plants are caused by delayed maintenance and overwork.
IMO this sounds way more plausible than globohomo arsoning food processing plants to make you eat ze bugs and ze soy. Like if you want to fuck with food prices, you keep doing what's happening in the real world, not fire bolts of Jewish lightning to unlucky plant owners.
This is my favorite part about the chinese. unlike MAD back in the Cold War, the chinks don't have any way to fuck up the US. but they have the 3GD, and its been like a giant self-destruct button the past 15 years, literally dozens of countries have the tech to blow the fucker up, and yet they still do this shit. Its like being pushed around by a bratty little girl, at any point they could be fucking destroyed, they are so fucking weak its amazing. Yet it doesn't matter because they take full advantage of the current climate to make sure they get away with being as annoyingly evil as possible.
China can still hit the West Coast and most of the East Coast (Florida is safe lol) with their current missiles plus they have enough smaller missiles to wipe out any carrier battlegroup that gets close including the unsinkable aircraft carrier called Taiwan. There's still a very large semblance of MAD when they can kill 10-20% of the US population even if the US can do far worse to them.

IIRC only the nations with nukes, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have the capability to reliably strike the 3GD, everyone else in the region has an air force/missiles that are at best China quality but much smaller so China would have the advantage. MAD really only matters for the three non-nuclear nations in this case since it gives them an option if China nukes Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, etc.
 
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Another reason to worry is that all those mcmansions from the 2000s are starting to get fucked up because of how old the construction materials in them are, lots of building made cheap and quick because the house would be sold multiple times by the 20 year mark.

Yup, that is a ticking time bomb. Loads of utterly shit-tier Chinese concrete foundations and sheetrock out there, vigorously disintegrating under peoples' noses. It's already causing issues in some regions of the USA -- Connecticut's one that I know of off the top of my head, any house built in that state in the 90s has an excellent chance of having a foundation poured from trash concrete that's either already cracking, or will do so soon. And that's not even getting into the schizo-grade electrical work that was rampant in the 90s-2000s from all the untrained, unlicensed, illegal labor (or shitty amateur handymen operating under the table) that's just waiting to catch on fire...

Yet it doesn't matter because they take full advantage of the current climate to make sure they get away with being as annoyingly evil as possible.

Genuinely laughed out loud, great description (and I agree).
 
Yup, that is a ticking time bomb. Loads of utterly shit-tier Chinese concrete foundations and sheetrock out there, vigorously disintegrating under peoples' noses. It's already causing issues in some regions of the USA -- Connecticut's one that I know of off the top of my head, any house built in that state in the 90s has an excellent chance of having a foundation poured from trash concrete that's either already cracking, or will do so soon. And that's not even getting into the schizo-grade electrical work that was rampant in the 90s-2000s from all the untrained, unlicensed, illegal labor (or shitty amateur handymen operating under the table) that's just waiting to catch on fire...



Genuinely laughed out loud, great description (and I agree).
Can I ask about the housing foundations thing? The one I lived in had the foundation split in three, but it was built on a high slope and on land artificially filled in 1978. I've seen some wiring nightmares before but never understood how they can fuck up a foundation aside from not levrling ground properly.
IIRC only the nations with nukes, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have the capability to reliably strike the 3GD, everyone else in the region has an air force/missiles that are at best China quality but much smaller so China would have the advantage. MAD really only matters for the three non-nuclear nations in this case since it gives them an option if China nukes Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, etc.
These water control projects are a staple of any Chinese era lol. Though I will say the 3GD was designed by US engineers. It's kinda like the US, politicans and leader who are empty suits and taking the ideas from the last person with an actual brain and running it to the extreme logical conclusion.
 
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I finally put away all the tins and bags of pasta that I bought a while back. Actually, I lie; I just moved them out to the place where they can all be put away. I bought lots of boring stuff too like porridge, and also cereal/fruit. Takes up a lot of space. But I got it. Just enough. I don't eat that much.

There's always the aspect of time. Whilst I might have storage space for this for the next year or two, will that food go off in the next year or two? So far it hasn't. But I'm always careful. Well, I need to be increasingly careful as increasing amounts of it are now piling up and I'm almost at the point of only eating out of date foods if I want to 'rotate' it all properly. I keep my kitchen clean and my work surfaces immaculate, so if I do get any tummy upset or wtf I know where it comes from.

Just got to give a little shout again for the store based cheap soups like Tomato Soup and Mushroom Soup. Asda/Tesco - all good . Not as good as the OG, but still more than palatable. I regretted buying so many tins of chopped Tomato, whilst it comprises a whole meal or two or four! A tin of Tomato Soup is only one meal really, but it's just so easy. A slice of bread with some Marmite or Vegemite on Toast.... and it costs just the same. Must buy more of that soup!

My freezer is getting old. It's got about 20 meals in there right now not considering frozen chips/pizzas. The local frozen Pizzas are good. Cheap. Not very big. More than enough for one.

Anyway, I guess I won't be doing any more monster shops like that for a while. A year or two at least. I've hedged as best as I can. Rice is rice and Pasta is pasta. I also bought a few tins of fruit. Whilst not my favorite, they can be good as a pick me up when other supplies run low.

It's getting harder and harder to get canned milk in all its forms - condensed, evaporated...

Just grab what you can. Fill up as much of your cupboard as you can with tinned goods and dried pasta/rice etc.

It might just help you ride the coming storm.

There probably won't be a storm, and you won't need it.

And if there is a storm, then these measures will surely not be enough.

Oh and don't forget Water! Got 24 Gallons of it in plastic containers, or wtf.

Water is kind of important should the lights ever 'go off'.

I think we'll be ok. But at some point in society, and at some point in the timeline, then, well, things won't be ok. You will call on favors, you will call on friends. You will call on the weak and the vulnerable as the strong and the ready will only be too willing to call on you as well. You will check each others' larders.

It helps to have means to defend this 'wealth' as well, if it is only an agreement with local neighbours, but then again...

And if you really want to go down this road, then always consider, at least, a means of cooking this all!

Nite nite, sweet dreams!
 
Can I ask about the housing foundations thing? The one I lived in had the foundation split in three, but it was built on a high slope and on land artificially filled in 1978. I've seen some wiring nightmares before but never understood how they can fuck up a foundation aside from not levrling ground properly.

Sure, I'd be happy to share the tale of the shitty Connecticut Concrete. It involves a contaminant in the mix that compromises its structural integrity:
As many as 34,000 homes constructed in northeastern Connecticut between 1983 and 2000 may have concrete foundations containing pyrrhotite and are at risk of cracking or crumbling. Pyrrhotite is an iron sulfide that can be found naturally in aggregates, or rocky materials such as gravel, sand, or stone that are added to cement to make concrete. When iron sulfides are exposed to oxygen and water, a series of chemical reactions convert the iron sulfides into other compounds.

These other compounds are expansive – take up more space than the original iron sulfides – and ultimately lead to cracks or holes in the concrete. The cracks in the concrete foundations grow over time, putting the inhabitants of the homes and structures at risk.

It's a nasty problem that's even worse because no one knows how widespread it is, but it could affect a lot of people:
Reports of crumbling foundations first began in 2015. By May 2017, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (CDCP) had received reports of more than 550 homes with faulty foundations, and in December 2017 began processing 522 verified reports to determine compensation eligibility.

Collectively, the potential economic impact to the Connecticut’s housing market could approach up to $1 billion. This issue is also devastating to individual homeowners, whose home values decrease significantly if pyrrhotite is present. Potentially, tens of thousands of Connecticut residents may be affected as the quarry believed to be the source of the contaminated material was widely used throughout the state

If you'd like to read more, you can read FEMA's page on it HERE, and some news articles HERE (NYTimes) and HERE.
 
And if there is a storm, then these measures will surely not be enough.
It depends. The ideal stock is around 3 months supply, which serves two purposes: it smooths over unexpected bumps in general, but also keeps you alive long enough to outlast almost every "event" that might come along. The general rule is, if you survive the first couple of weeks, you're going to survive long term, simply because most events are only short shocks. If the event is so long that you work through your entire three month supply, then no amount of prepping would be enough.

Add dried beans to your stock. Lots of nutrients and proteins that you won't get from rice and pasta. Generally speaking, as long as you keep it stored in airtight containers, rice, pasta, porridge and the like will last a good long while. Usually a couple of years past the BBE. Beans last basically forever.

Another one is pepperami. I don't know what they put in that shit (it'sprobably all the salt) and it's a bit price for what you get as a normal snack, but it lasts until the sun goes cold so far as I can tell. Chopping one into beans and rice rather improves everything.

Get some dried herbs and spices. They also last ages if you keep them in the dark, and make your rice and beans and salty sausage actually bearable over the long term.

And finally: never tell anyone nearby what you have. If things do go south, the last thing you want is your hard-earned supplies being "appropriated" by the state or the local warlord.
 
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What @兄貴 Forevermore said, as well as it seems like QC has taken a dump across the board to boot. I don't know if you've been spectating computer hardware and software news the last year and a half or so, but it seems like there's been more frequent, severe, and stupid issues that have gotten through the system than usual, and it's taken longer to fix them (if they get fixed at all), affecting most of the major players like AMD, NVidia, ASUS, MSI, etc. Not even going to get into Microsoft's descent into whatever category lies below "meme status". (This is all anecdata I know, and worth as much as a fart on the breeze, but hey, it was free to read.) I assume a lot of this has to do with the ongoing problems with staffing and management, as well as overwork/burnout.
Miner power leveling. I've moonlighted as a quality control inspector before for produce packing plants during the pandemic. We where told to relax are standards last year because we couldn't sort and pack fast enough due to a labor shortage. the other reason given was quality inventory was reaching low levels and stores where worried about empty shelves. So we was sending B-line produce mixed in with with Some A-line to pad it out
 
If anything is going to cause people to wake up and lost their shit, it’ll be the continuing (worsening) baby formula shortage
All I can think is , if you know someone who is due with a baby soon, ask them if they’d like you to buy a can or two since there are buying limits at most stores now
 
I finally put away all the tins and bags of pasta that I bought a while back. Actually, I lie; I just moved them out to the place where they can all be put away. I bought lots of boring stuff too like porridge, and also cereal/fruit. Takes up a lot of space. But I got it. Just enough. I don't eat that much.

There's always the aspect of time. Whilst I might have storage space for this for the next year or two, will that food go off in the next year or two? So far it hasn't. But I'm always careful. Well, I need to be increasingly careful as increasing amounts of it are now piling up and I'm almost at the point of only eating out of date foods if I want to 'rotate' it all properly. I keep my kitchen clean and my work surfaces immaculate, so if I do get any tummy upset or wtf I know where it comes from.

Just got to give a little shout again for the store based cheap soups like Tomato Soup and Mushroom Soup. Asda/Tesco - all good . Not as good as the OG, but still more than palatable. I regretted buying so many tins of chopped Tomato, whilst it comprises a whole meal or two or four! A tin of Tomato Soup is only one meal really, but it's just so easy. A slice of bread with some Marmite or Vegemite on Toast.... and it costs just the same. Must buy more of that soup!

My freezer is getting old. It's got about 20 meals in there right now not considering frozen chips/pizzas. The local frozen Pizzas are good. Cheap. Not very big. More than enough for one.

Anyway, I guess I won't be doing any more monster shops like that for a while. A year or two at least. I've hedged as best as I can. Rice is rice and Pasta is pasta. I also bought a few tins of fruit. Whilst not my favorite, they can be good as a pick me up when other supplies run low.

It's getting harder and harder to get canned milk in all its forms - condensed, evaporated...

Just grab what you can. Fill up as much of your cupboard as you can with tinned goods and dried pasta/rice etc.

It might just help you ride the coming storm.

There probably won't be a storm, and you won't need it.

And if there is a storm, then these measures will surely not be enough.

Oh and don't forget Water! Got 24 Gallons of it in plastic containers, or wtf.

Water is kind of important should the lights ever 'go off'.

I think we'll be ok. But at some point in society, and at some point in the timeline, then, well, things won't be ok. You will call on favors, you will call on friends. You will call on the weak and the vulnerable as the strong and the ready will only be too willing to call on you as well. You will check each others' larders.

It helps to have means to defend this 'wealth' as well, if it is only an agreement with local neighbours, but then again...

And if you really want to go down this road, then always consider, at least, a means of cooking this all!

Nite nite, sweet dreams!
Water is understated. I live in a community with a communal well, not attached in any way to a government apparatus. Good when it is good, however, when the power goes out, we have no back up generator to the pumphouse (something we really need to fucking fix). I have been without water for 4-5 days, which is almost worse than no electricity. These storms happen in the coldest part of the year, which is also fun. I have propane heaters and butane stoves. You have no idea how much water you need until you don't have it. I had to heat water in my 5 gallon fermentation tank on my butane stove just so my kid and I could bathe. Washing dishes and clothes was also an ordeal, plus the water needed for cooking, pets, and livestock. And the toilet. We're on septic, so as long as you have water to flush, you can, but god help you otherwise. I am honestly thinking of having a composting toilet as a backup prep.

I know that Sam's Club sells 5 gallon barrels of water and I would probably pick up 1 of those per person, per day you expect problems.
 
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