Paul Damascene on May 18, 2022 · at 9:00 pm EST/EDT
I actually prefer that the most credible sources I look to do not agree in all things: Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Nightvision, Jacques Baud, Bernard, Jacob Dreizen, Brian Berletic, Andrei Raevsky, & Andrei Martyanov each stand to see or emphasize something that the others may not.
The Duran in their persuasive way were expressing concerns at least consistent with Scott’s. That Russia under Putin has been cautious to a fault. One relevant, credible case where this may be justified is in not securing Russian-speaking Ukraine after the coup. This would not have given the UkroNATO 8 years to dig in, infest the cities, etc. In hindsight, given that the West goes full retard anyway, it might have been preferable to act then, even if Russia were not ready to extend the battle beyond Donbass.
But Russia under Putin is also known for waiting, choosing the moment, and then doing something unexpected, often with considerable economy of means or resources. Syria. Thus the judo tropes.
Gonzalo Lira said something interesting the other day: the Russians are keeping it boring, when the US in particular craves drama.
It occurs to me that rather than speeding things up, Russia may actually be slowing things down.
Russia now clearly acknowledges that NATO is engaged in a total war against Russia. Very unlikely that RF strategic planners are not now taking this into account.
Though of course there are many things the neocon crazies and their EU handmaidens could try, I notice that the Poland / Romania / Moldova / Transnistria chatter has cooled after Putin said they would experience sensations in their nether parts they had never before felt.
But why slow things down?
Not sure to what degree Russian strategists imagined that they’d have 83% public approval, the ruble as an instrument of EU torture, falling inflation, falling interest rates, and the most superb asset of enemies whose incompetence and emotional stability are revealing themselves every day.
Do not interrupt your enemy when they are making mistakes. And while EU / NATO / West is being revealed to the world for what it is–and remember, this is not just a question of Russian and Western audiences–the multipolar world is watching and learning.
Gulf States, Algeria, India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, ASEAN, and of course China supportive, and even Turkey has been less of a headache than expected.
Russian history or war has long involved General Winter, but right now we are preparing for the arrival of General Summer. In the West: inflation but also scarcity–something most have never experienced. Baby formula, food, fertilizer, diesel…A a considerable proportion of the China supply chain.
The West is being gutted–largely in the self-inflicted sense. Ukrainian refugees & the Zelensky spoiled teen routine are already wearing thin. At least half of the Western population was alienated before this started, and 40 billion USD tranches, & Hunter Biden trials, & WHO / WEF chicanery are adding fuel to the fire.
If as Smoothie says, there are vast decision trees of contingencies–on one small branch almost out of sight until now, was the possibility that Russia would find itself in a moment where it could break the West down–financially, economically, politically, diplomatically.
To settle the Ukraine question and go back to a Cold War risks giving the West a chance to analyze Russia with respect rather than blind contempt, and perhaps the next round of leaders will not be quite so incompetent.
Perhaps, to the extent that circumstances prove propitious, they may be prepared to crank the pain dial for years. Perhaps for ‘threatening’ or ‘belligerent’ countries — only physical gold for Russian products, and perhaps bans and third-party agreements not to sell strategic materials to these countries at all: titanium, uranium, nickel, aluminum, copper, neon & noble gases, food, fertilizer….
