War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Kremlin is a pit of snakes, I have no doubt in my mind that there are people/factions waiting for the opportunity to take over. It's been speculated for a while that there's multiple factions vying for control, even before the war.
People forget that this bunch of fuckers have been busy all these years since the fall of USSR robbing Russia blind and extracting wealth, hoarding assets in foreign countries and stuffing Western banks with stolen money. Considering that this was their sole priority, this war hurt them immensely, as it put them in the crosshairs of ever increasing sanctions and crippled Russian export. These oligarchs control Russia's vast natural resources and industries, and there's no fucking way they're happy with the current state of affairs.
It's generally assumed that they're loyal to Putin only because he's got them by the balls after making an example out of Khodorkovsky, not out of any ideological consensus. He's more of a mafia boss than a president.
There's kompromat on every single one of their asses, but it won't be used as long as they play ball. Otherwise Putin can throw anyone in prison for corruption and strip them of their wealth, and possibly life. And it doesn't matter that they've been doing it with Putin's authorization, because tsar can never wrong, it's the boyars' fault. Populace eats it up like it's blinis on a shovel.

Considering Putin's vast intelligence apparatus, it's also highly likely that most potential threats were already weeded out, leaving only the most loyal/scared in his immediate circle. There's been quite a few suspicious deaths lately, and cleansing of the army/intelligence leadership, so he's very much concerned about the possibility.
There's the unsanctioned Potanin, but that might be baby's first psyop, normally transparent, but sowing suspicion in Putin's stressed mind, and stressing his body, or just an agreed back channel to allow the great and the good to exit Russia neatly with a sufficient amounts of suitably washed money. Purges of course result in the scum coming to the top, sycophants who are carefully eyeing a useful time for treachery. The thing is, to my mind, is a lot of them are wealthy men with so much in common, all equally compromised, they could as easily fall together, or taken out by ambitious men below them, the 'hang together or hang separately' thing. That might bind them together. Even they mightn't be shameless to brand themselves a new democracy loving liberals or simple reformers, but again Putin going to war over over the Minsk Accords, even as a pretext, wasn't generally predicted. The ancien régime idea of the good king's evil advisors seems, as you say, to be the Putin SOP.

There were a strange murder-suicide with a Gazprom bank exec and familiy. If it wasn't a tragedy, this might've been a thing to clear out wobbly supporters just before war or in the early stage.
 
There's the unsanctioned Potanin, but that might be baby's first psyop, normally transparent, but sowing suspicion in Putin's stressed mind, and stressing his body, or just an agreed back channel to allow the great and the good to exit Russia neatly with a sufficient amounts of suitably washed money. Purges of course result in the scum coming to the top, sycophants who are carefully eyeing a useful time for treachery. The thing is, to my mind, is a lot of them are wealthy men with so much in common, all equally compromised, they could as easily fall together, or taken out by ambitious men below them, the 'hang together or hang separately' thing. That might bind them together. Even they mightn't be shameless to brand themselves a new democracy loving liberals or simple reformers, but again Putin going to war over over the Minsk Accords, even as a pretext, wasn't generally predicted. The ancien régime idea of the good king's evil advisors seems, as you say, to be the Putin SOP.

There were a strange murder-suicide with a Gazprom bank exec and familiy. If it wasn't a tragedy, this might've been a thing to clear out wobbly supporters just before war or in the early stage.
There's at least two "murder-suicides", which is of course just a coincidence: https://www.businessinsider.com/2-russian-oligarchs-found-dead-spain-moscow-reports-2022-4
 
I'm extremely doubtful the US would send 1: Send Patriots to a proxy war where there's a non-negligible chance (albeit very small) that they might fall into enemy hands 2: That the Ukrainian forces could learn how to use them in any reasonable timeframe and 3: That we and/or other operators would be willing to part with any radars or batteries in the near future before replacements could be lined up.

Its probably more "journalistic" speculation regarding military matters they know nothing about, but if that somehow ends up being true Russia is absolutely fucked. Patriots are vastly more advanced than anything either Ukraine or Russia has in their inventory right now and would signal a major escalation on the part of the US, might as well be sending tactical nukes as far as how drastically it would change the situation in the air and by extension on the ground.
 
Again, it seems that copium has been a Russian expertise ever since WW2. They also downplayed the fact that the Soviets started off as a Nazi ally in the war; helping them take Poland in 1939, with Stalin even making an attempt to have the Soviets join the Axis Powers. He only switched sides when Hitler betrayed him in Operation Barbarossa.

Oh, they don't down play it. It's illegal to mention (including anywhere on public media) that Soviet Union had treaty with Nazis ... there is literally a law against saying that. All normal people know that WII started in 1939 and ended on May 8th, but not in Russia/Soviet union, it's 1941-1945, May 9th and saying otherwise will get you 15 years.

I'd classify copium as engrandizing of anything Russian since Soviet times, starting with anthem words "great Russia united forever ..." because Russia was the master race that lead the way to communism to all the other people. It's like that "Greeks invented everything" was actually Russians invented everything, from radio, airplanes ... even baseball.


I find Suvorov questionable for plenty of reason, to me mostly because of the Soviet actions in 1938 during Munich. To my view, the Soviets were thinking defensively rather than offensively when stationing their equipment in the west of the nation. They’d initially been trying to make diplomatic inroads with the western democracies but after 1938 (when they were among the few saying “hey hold on are you really going to let the Germans sieze a chunk of czechoslovakia to avoid a war, are you crazy?”) switched their tone. Why? They saw the Germans as the stronger side and assumed the war would drag on for a while, and keep Germany distracted. Molotov-Ribbentrop was a gamble, that the appeasementish division of Poland would buy time for the Soviets to further build up, finish their naval building programs, and keep them from having to potentially fight a war on two fronts with both Japan and Germany. They were wrong, but I think Stalin thought Hitler would be satisfied with the partition of Poland, distracted by the Allies, and only turn east after taking out the British, which could take a few years and by which time the Soviets would have a more defensible border and troops ready to go. Completely wrong, obviously, but I don’t think Stalin planned on attacking Germany immediately and was far more focused on regaining the Russian control of Eastern Europe.

This is a hige topic that's been debated a lot, and there is a lot of evidence that collaborates what Suvorov was saying.

One big mark of any tyranny or a fascist state is constant expansion and conquest. Nazis needed liebenstraum, Commies needed world proletariat revolution, but expansion was vital, or more precisely constant state of war, and thus if enemies didn't attack you, you had to attack them, enemies, not enemies. Oceania was always at war with Eurasia!
 
I'm extremely doubtful the US would send 1: Send Patriots to a proxy war where there's a non-negligible chance (albeit very small) that they might fall into enemy hands 2: That the Ukrainian forces could learn how to use them in any reasonable timeframe and 3: That we and/or other operators would be willing to part with any radars or batteries in the near future before replacements could be lined up.

Its probably more "journalistic" speculation regarding military matters they know nothing about, but if that somehow ends up being true Russia is absolutely fucked. Patriots are vastly more advanced than anything either Ukraine or Russia has in their inventory right now and would signal a major escalation on the part of the US, might as well be sending tactical nukes as far as how drastically it would change the situation in the air and by extension on the ground.
1) PAC-2 is a 30 year old system, the GEM-T upgrade is 20
2) This war could easily last another 6 months
3) Sierra and Anniston Army Depot has them in storage

And really, what's their other option once their S-300s are exhausted? They are going to need a replacement system regardless. I don't think Russia will sell them replacement interceptors when the war is over. The only other theater air defense system out there that they could get that is comparable is Patriot.
 
This is a hige topic that's been debated a lot, and there is a lot of evidence that collaborates what Suvorov was saying.

One big mark of any tyranny or a fascist state is constant expansion and conquest. Nazis needed liebenstraum, Commies needed world proletariat revolution, but expansion was vital, or more precisely constant state of war, and thus if enemies didn't attack you, you had to attack them, enemies, not enemies. Oceania was always at war with Eurasia!
Yep.

For those unaware, Stalin was actually trying to federalize Eastern Europe into one Communist super-state as a prelude to its being absorbed into the USSR. Can't have Socialism in One Country if socialist countries other than the USSR exist, after all. Tito split because he was trying to expand Yugoslavian power and control at the expense of his neighbors, and was not at all on board with Yugoslavia getting vacuumed up like that. So he wound up cutting a deal with Truman for protection and funding, and would then pursue a (comparatively) liberal economic and social policy compared to the Warsaw Pact.
 
1) PAC-2 is a 30 year old system, the GEM-T upgrade is 20

And most of our fighter aircraft are that old if not twice that, including the F-22.

How do you think any of our frontline fighters would compere to their Russian counterparts from what we've seen of them so far ? Them being old doesn't change the fact their demonstrably superior.

) This war could easily last another 6 months

Still not enough time. Basic instruction takes about three months, but that's for people who are new to the system who will be lead in the field by senior commanders with years of experience. They aren't going to create newly formed battalions out of S-300 operators they taught the basics and then pushed out the door.

3) Sierra and Anniston Army Depot has them in storage

Something being in storage doesn't mean it's useless to the nation storing them. It just means its not currently in active service with a battalion, that could change very quickly if a situation that demands the use of US operated Patriots arises.

And really, what's their other option once their S-300s are exhausted? They are going to need a replacement system regardless. I don't think Russia will sell them replacement interceptors when the war is over. The only other theater air defense system out there that they could get that is comparable is Patriot.

Greece still has S-300 systems, and if Europe really intends to get serious about helping they could probably nigger rig Aster systems to work in that role relatively easily along with a bunch of other less capable ones.
 
Russian telegram channel posted that "Kalina", second in command of Azov surrendered and that FSB was working with him, expecting a presser soon

1652997993688.png


Well, put down that stout, he and an unknown group from Azov still there. No details or the point of it, but I am pretty positive it's no fake. Russians already "killed and burried" him a while back near Kharkiv, so we'll see how this goes.

Second in command of the Azov regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar let know that leadership and himself, on 19th of May still remain in Azovsteel factory.
Source: Palamar, call sign Kalina, commentary for Ukrainian Pravda
Direct quote: Today, 85 day of war. I and comandeers remain on territory of factory Azovstal. The military operation goes on, details of which I will not say. Thank you to the whole world, thank you to Ukraine. We'll see you.

Заступник командира полку "Азов" Святослав Паламар повідомив, що керівництво і він станом на 19 травня перебувають на території заводу "Азовсталь".
Джерело: Паламар, позивний "Калина", у коментарі для УП
Пряма мова: "Сьогодні (19 травня - ред.) 85-й день війни. Я і командування перебуваємо на території заводу "Азовсталь". Триває певна операція, деталей якої я не буду оголошувати. Дякуємо усьому світу, дякуємо Україні. Побачимося".
 
Yeah I'm calling bullshit on sending Patriots directly to Ukraine. At most I could maaybe see them being sent to nearby NATO countries as a backfill if they send their ex-soviet shit to Ukraine, but thaty's about it.
The Patriot has the advantage of being called a purely defensive weapon. If I recall correctly when the Japanese adopted this they soothed their cucked anti military naysayers by noting it can't really be used offensively. Also Army AMD is staffed by total retards and rejects from other schools so I'm going to assume it's not a difficult system to master.
 
True. But the fact that the Soviets started the war as an ally of Nazi Germany is often buried by Rusiaboos who keep insisting that it was the Soviet Union that won the war for the Allies, instead of the Allies giving the Soviets enough material and military support to win a war they helped kick off.
Really, recently it seems that it has been so much buried as it has been whitewashed, a lot of Russiaboos have said it was "necessary for the survival of the Soviet Union", or at least something along those lines.

Forget the fact that the only conceivable way this claim works with the power of hindsight, as well as burying the fact Stalin ignored the claims of Barbarossa's impeding launch from every direction from his own border guards reporting a massive German buildup (he bought Hitler's excuse it was a training exercise), from the allied powers, and from even his own spies, so he clearly thought a German invasion wouldn't be a thing for at least a few years.
 
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And most of our fighter aircraft are that old if not twice that, including the F-22.

How do you think any of our frontline fighters would compere to their Russian counterparts from what we've seen of them so far ? Them being old doesn't change the fact their demonstrably superior.
Them being superior isn't the point. The point is that it's an old system and whatever secrets about it are already known. We sold this thing to Qatar, ffs. Let's not act like it hasn't had it's cherry popped.
Still not enough time. Basic instruction takes about three months, but that's for people who are new to the system who will be lead in the field by senior commanders with years of experience. They aren't going to create newly formed battalions out of S-300 operators they taught the basics and then pushed out the door.
6 months conversion training for people already familiar with operating theater air defense missile systems isn't enough? Also, S-300 would still be there. The idea is to have it up and running before the S-300 network falls apart. That way it can help carry the load and address threats that the S-300 can't.
Something being in storage doesn't mean it's useless to the nation storing them. It just means its not currently in active service with a battalion, that could change very quickly if a situation that demands the use of US operated Patriots arises.
The US has about a 1100 launchers. I think we can spare some old mothballed PAC-2s and not risk 'Murica. The entire point of having this stuff in storage in the first place was to "break glass in case of vatnik" and here is a golden opportunity to swat down a bunch of Russian planes with it.
Greece still has S-300 systems, and if Europe really intends to get serious about helping they could probably nigger rig Aster systems to work in that role relatively easily along with a bunch of other less capable ones.
The Greeks only have 25 S-300 launchers and 75 missiles. One battalion, basically. If this becomes a long attritional war it won't be enough. Same if they try some kind of Aster scheme. Or NASAMS. The countries that use them don't have them to spare. The US is the only one with this shit ready to go in quantity, that has spares, that won't uncover our ass if we give them away. It's the only viable option.
 
The US has about a 1100 launchers. I think we can spare some old mothballed PAC-2s and not risk 'Murica. The entire point of having this stuff in storage in the first place was to "break in case of vatnik" and here is a golden opportunity to swat down a bunch of Russian planes with it.
This really can't be stated enough. Any Russian aircraft, tank, or warship destroyed by Ukraine is a net positive for NATO. The Russians mistep is a golden opportunity to crush their military at the hands of a 3rd party. If I was pulling the trigger I would be selling them THAAD, aircraft and MBTs while citing the Vietnam conflict as a precedent the Russians already set.
 
This really can't be stated enough. Any Russian aircraft, tank, or warship destroyed by Ukraine is a net positive for NATO. The Russians mistep is a golden opportunity to crush their military at the hands of a 3rd party. If I was pulling the trigger I would be selling them THAAD, aircraft and MBTs while citing the Vietnam conflict as a precedent the Russians already set.

I agree with this sentiment entirely.

I just don't think Patriots (even less so THAAD) are systems you can just gift to a third party that's untrained on them in any reasonable timeframe. And by that I mean at least the eastern front will have either stabilize into a long term stalemate or even some kind of ceasefire before truly consequential equipment is operational and in the field in numbers that would allow the Ukrainians to decisively win this and take back everything sans Crimea that Russia and their puppets have held since 2014.

I don't doubt they will get the means to do so, maybe even Patriots if necessary, which is why I said Russia is fucked if this is genuine because its not out of the question. But we should expect Russia to hold onto the southern territory as well as whatever eastern territory they can brut force their way into before the fronts settle for for a year or two at least before things like Patriots, aircraft, anti-ship weapons and new armor are able to be fielded in numbers that make a difference.
 
I agree with this sentiment entirely.

I just don't think Patriots (even less so THAAD) are systems you can just gift to a third party that's untrained on them in any reasonable timeframe. And by that I mean at least the eastern front will have either stabilize into a long term stalemate or even some kind of ceasefire before truly consequential equipment is operational and in the field in numbers that would allow the Ukrainians to decisively win this and take back everything sans Crimea that Russia and their puppets have held since 2014.

I don't doubt they will get the means to do so, maybe even Patriots if necessary, which is why I said Russia is fucked if this is genuine because its not out of the question. But we should expect Russia to hold onto the southern territory as well as whatever eastern territory they can brut force their way into before the fronts settle for for a year or two at least before things like Patriots, aircraft, anti-ship weapons and new armor are able to be fielded in numbers that make a difference.
You raise a valid point. I hope that in the opening weeks whatever Pentagon group that is dictating our involvement already whisked away a few thousand Ukr soldiers for training in CONUS or West Europe for such systems. A month ago we would have said giving something like an M1A1 tank would be a waste due to training timetables but we are approaching a point in this conflict where we could have fully trained people on systems like the M1A1, M2 and Patriot and sent them back with the equipment.
 
You raise a valid point. I hope that in the opening weeks whatever Pentagon group that is dictating our involvement already whisked away a few thousand Ukr soldiers for training in CONUS or West Europe for such systems. A month ago we would have said giving something like an M1A1 tank would be a waste due to training timetables but we are approaching a point in this conflict where we could have fully trained people on systems like the M1A1, M2 and Patriot and sent them back with the equipment.
Agreed. This cautious thinking where "it won't be ready in time" made a lot of sense two months ago where it was commonly thought that it would be a short war. But now after the Russians threw everything at the Donbass and had it stopped? The calculations have changed.

It is time now (it's been this way for months) to shift gears and train and send them gear not just to delay the Russians until some ceasefire is reached but to win the damn war. A strong air defense network to swat down stand off munitions is going to be crucial to getting that done. Even just enough to protect the western part of the country would be of large strategic importance as it would give them a well-defended rear area to train and repair with the extra benefit of giving the displaced people security so that they can go back home and hopefully get the stalled economy going again.
 
You raise a valid point. I hope that in the opening weeks whatever Pentagon group that is dictating our involvement already whisked away a few thousand Ukr soldiers for training in CONUS or West Europe for such systems. A month ago we would have said giving something like an M1A1 tank would be a waste due to training timetables but we are approaching a point in this conflict where we could have fully trained people on systems like the M1A1, M2 and Patriot and sent them back with the equipment.

They didn't. We know they didn't. A lot of training has continued to be undertaken on systems a lot of senior officers and mechanics were eminently familiar with. We're probably seeing a slow move towards other systems going out there but for the most part its vehicles and weapons systems someone with basic training can be made proficent on within a week.

I am very doubtful we will see any kind of heavier armour especially those with more advanced turrets and weapons systems headed out to Ukraine. AIFV is likely the most "current" heavier platform we'll see out there certainly in the medium term. Its basically turned into a bit of a junk sale to Ukraine due to war effort desperation

The british are stripping the most sensitive equipment out of the Mastiffs and other vehicles we've sent out there, likely taking them back to near Mk1 capabilities. Same with a few of the CVRTs and other things we've sent out. Nothing too sensitive or the latest sensors are going out there, but they're not hunting hajjs in a haystack, it's some drunken Vatnik trying to find a Banya while out in the fucking open.
 
Ruble supposedly bounced back, so vatniks are high on copium currently. But I keep thinking about the fact that it was valued much higher compared to dollar back in USSR, though you could buy fuck all with it, so the comparison was ultimately meaningless, all of which comes at a cost.
Current situation is not that far off, and they only achieved this by restricting trade and obligating companies to sell currency, among other things.

Any economists to weigh in? From where I stand, Russian economy isn't any less fucked than it was a month ago.
 
Russians have attempted another offensive over in the East, Ukranian Defence ministry reports.

Once again, either been thrown back, done nothing or captured a village or two. We had nearly a solid week of artillery before this as well, suggesting russian artillery abilities and ammunition is ineffective against more mobile or better defended.

Screenshot 2022-05-20 12.21.47.png


They have however created a bubble around Popasna which certainly presents a fun opportunity for the Ukranians to slam shut the door and keep them there.

Around Kherson, the Ukies have now shoved the russians back to about the same positions they were in on the 03rd of May, and euronews has an inadvertedly hilarious soft video with depty commander creampuff here.

 
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