Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Givi]

If Ukrainians have no serious air defense, why does the Russian air force play such a small role in this conflict?

Because it isn't. Russian aviation works with near impunity in the Donbass. Everywhere else, obviously not. They were instrumental in assaulting Popasna and Lyman.

They lost a couple aircraft and helicopters and haven't dared to fly their bombers within range of non-existent Ukrainian air defense since.

This isn't WW2. Nobody flies bombers anywhere near known enemy SAMs (well, AA guns) anymore if they can avoid it, or there's something very important they want to hit. If you mean fighter-bombers, then you're wrong, they're constantly on sorties in the Donbas and they're a constant source of many of the bombings we see. If you want proof that Ukraine's air defence means are incredibly degraded, then just count the ballistic missiles that used to get shot down on the way to Odessa and other places, and compare them to the current number that do. Compare also how much more freely Russian aviation moves in the Donbas compared to two months ago, and the sharp drop in numbers of claims of downed Russian helis and jets, compared to months ago.

Not to mention that again, this isn't WW2. MANPADs are good enough that they can deny aerial supremacy essentially forever.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian Air Force that Russians said they destroyed in the first days of the war has started to fly combat sorties in the last weeks.

They've been flying combat sorties since always. There's just not many of them and most don't end too well unless they stay well within Ukrainian territory. IIRC they were doing 10 or 30~ a day to the Russian's hundreds just a few weeks ago. Do not forget that they've received plenty of aircraft and aircraft parts (for planes that were deactivated before the war) from Eastern European countries. Obviously the entire air force didn't get destroyed in two days, that was always a meme.

There's videos of Russians blowing up Ukrainian weapons storages, but there's also footage of Ukrainians blowing up Russian stores and supply colons.

One outnumbers the other by a LOT.

Russians talk big about how they destroy everything that enters Ukraine but they have provided no evidence for that being the case.

Nobody has ever said they destroy everything. They probably destroy a sizable number but much of it does make its way to fighters, though perhaps not to the Donbas anymore.

We've seen Russian missiles missing their targets, falling out of the sky, and we've seen Ukrainians use Western artillery in battle.

We've seen a lot more Russian missiles hit their target and cause mass casualty events than we've seen randomly fall out of the sky. Western artillery is just another wunderwaffe in the long list this war has seen, it isn't a gamechanger and never will unless they get 1,000 pieces and can properly bring them all to bear.

Anyway, aviation in current year against an opponent that isn't the Taliban or some guerilla force with 3 MANPADs to share with 20,000 people isn't nearly as powerful as it used to be. It's the artillery's world, everyone else is just living in it.

 

[St.Davis]

It really is insane how tactics + bruteforcing things have managed to see Russia finally make significant gains in Ukraine, despite quite possibly the most retarded opening move to a war in recent history. It really felt like they started the conflict an entire month too early, without everything in place for an attack. Either a general made a major fuck up and began the assault too early or Biden baited Putin into making that move to save face, hell maybe Putin does have cancer afterall and was all "fuck it, I don't have a month to wait"

I'm honestly curious what the original plan was other than maybe the land bridge to Crimea, it seems like the Kiev move was either a decoy move or hoping for a quick surrender that would achieve their goals without much bloodshed. Once they had to withdraw from Kiev they lost a stupid amount of planes, tanks and infantry in completely fruitless pushes until they switched things around and tried the 'pockets' approach.

Either Russia is getting significantly better here or the elite Ukrainian troops have been decimated, leading to low morale volunteers surrendering at the first sign of gunfire. Azov folk were regarded as the Marines/SAS equivalent of Ukraine and with them eventually getting crushed via the Steel plant seige seems to have been the key moment for a general turnaround.

One thing is certain though, once a quick surrender was out of the question the war goals changed dramatically to requiring as much of Ukraine conquered as possible to negotiate victory. Hell, maybe Russia really does want to completely annex Ukraine.

The Marines and SAS are not equivalents, lol.

I don't think Azog is/was equivalent to either, in any case. They were (inexplicably) mostly useful for propaganda value.

 

[White_N]

This is a meme, but Yanukovych had the right ideas about this conflict

At a press conference in Rostov-on-Don on February 28, 2014, Viktor Yanukovych, who left Ukraine as a result of his removal from power in February 2014, addressed all the "lawless participants" with the words "stop before it's too late, while it's still possible to bring the situation back under control."

On April 21, 2014, Russian news agencies published another statement by Yanukovych, in which the fugitive politician warned "those who consider themselves the authorities in Kiev" against bloodshed: "the blood doesn't wash off. Stop it! — The media quoted Yanukovych — Your use of weapons in the east of Ukraine will not change anything. People are offended. You have called millions of people terrorists. People have no other way but to fight for their rights, their lives and their children."

On June 12, 2014, Yanukovych recorded a video message addressed to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, published on June 13, in which he was disappointed and outraged that the so-called ATO in the East did not stop immediately after Poroshenko's inauguration, accused him of giving "criminal orders" and urged the Ukrainian army not to carry them out. At the end of his speech, Yanukovych emotionally exclaimed: "Stop!".

 

[UVB-76]

Azov folk were regarded as the Marines/SAS equivalent of Ukraine

I've literally never heard of them as anything other than a bunch of hooligans.
The Marines are a whole ass branch of the US military with almost 183,000 active personnel, and the SAS have a selection process only legit freaks go through.
I don't know where this meme comes from but they don't have the size to be equivalent to Marines, nor the specialization of SAS units.

Not to mention that again, this isn't WW2. MANPADs are good enough that they can deny aerial supremacy essentially forever.

MANPADS, due to the man-portable part restricting the size of the rocket motor, are extremely poor at contesting air superiority. They're simply at an energy disadvantage. Along with the need for a large supply of coolant when a seeker has to provide long range detection from all aspects.
A nation defended by MANPADS alone cannot reach medium flying multiroles.
The only way MANPADS can reliably target jets is when they're forced to fly low by the SAM threat.
Funny story about the Stingers in Afghanistan: jet pilots simply started flying higher and Stingers were no threat. However, because precision guided munitions were rare back then the close air support bomb releases became less accurate, and Soviet ground troops started to refer to jet pilots as "Cosmonauts" for their refusal to fly low.

 

[Aidan]

It really is insane how tactics + bruteforcing things have managed to see Russia finally make significant gains in Ukraine, despite quite possibly the most retarded opening move to a war in recent history. It really felt like they started the conflict an entire month too early, without everything in place for an attack. Either a general made a major fuck up and began the assault too early or Biden baited Putin into making that move to save face, hell maybe Putin does have cancer afterall and was all "fuck it, I don't have a month to wait"

I'm honestly curious what the original plan was other than maybe the land bridge to Crimea, it seems like the Kiev move was either a decoy move or hoping for a quick surrender that would achieve their goals without much bloodshed. Once they had to withdraw from Kiev they lost a stupid amount of planes, tanks and infantry in completely fruitless pushes until they switched things around and tried the 'pockets' approach.

Either Russia is getting significantly better here or the elite Ukrainian troops have been decimated, leading to low morale volunteers surrendering at the first sign of gunfire. Azov folk were regarded as the Marines/SAS equivalent of Ukraine and with them eventually getting crushed via the Steel plant seige seems to have been the key moment for a general turnaround.

One thing is certain though, once a quick surrender was out of the question the war goals changed dramatically to requiring as much of Ukraine conquered as possible to negotiate victory. Hell, maybe Russia really does want to completely annex Ukraine.

I think it was at least partially poor planning by military leadership combined with overestimation of capabilities due to corruption. Over time the leadership issue has probably improved a bit and there's no illusion of current capabilities so they're at least aware of current limitations.

Kiev, feint or no, I think was pushed hard and fast to coax an early surrender out of the government. Didn't work so they had to tell those guys to retreat and do things the old fashioned and shitty way. It seemed obvious in the first week that Russia intended to capture airports they could use to ferry in more troops but it never came to.
Imagine if it did work. Russia would look as scary as ever to Europe.

As for things seeming to shift in favor of Russia, at least in the east, well the notion of the Ukrainian army being significantly better than Russia's man-to-man is retarded and the only thing allowing Ukraine to hold out this long is the practically infinite aid that probably is largely not even reaching the Donbas front. Those guys are stuck fighting or surrendering to Russia with no reprieve in sight as far as I know and soldiers can only take so much before they die or give up.


Regarding Azov, they were certainly considered some of the better troops Ukraine has because they have experience and motivation which goes a long way. They've been at it as a group for longer than Ukraine's modern military has practically existed.

 

[Henry V]

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Kiev, feint or no, I think was pushed hard and fast to coax an early surrender out of the government. Didn't work so they had to tell those guys to retreat and do things the old fashioned and shitty way. It seemed obvious in the first week that Russia intended to capture airports they could use to ferry in more troops but it never came to.
Imagine if it did work. Russia would look as scary as ever to Europe.

I'm pretty sure the feint narrative is Russian Cope - It was a bold attempt at a decapitation strike, and it failed, and they started falling back immediately as soon as they realized it wasn't gonna work out as planned. An objective defeat, but handled about as well as they could have all considered. The worse outcome would have been trying to pour more and more manpower down into what would have likely been a meat grinder.

 

[Maurice Caine]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

 

[Aidan]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

Poland next.

 

[St.Davis]

Poland next.

God I wish.

 

[Aidan]

Jokes aside I figure Russia is gonna get the Donbas and then some, things will simmer down but not all the way, and the West will try to keep the fire stoked for years.

Ukraine will probably be given an absurd amount of military gear so it doesn't happen again.

 

[DumbDude42]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

then they annex a bunch of ukrainian territory and we'll get another century of iron curtain

 

[Givi]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

Decades of very civil internet arguments on Youtube comment sections and image boards between Eastern Europeans rivaled only by the Yugoslav Wars.

Both sides will refuse to accept each other's victory. If the Russians win, Ukraine and NATO will go "akshually you didn't take Kyiv so you lost" and if NATO wins Russia will go "but we took less losses, destroyed Azov and took the Donbas so akshually we won".

I don't expect a new Iron Curtain, or at least one that lasts more than 10 years or so. The world's too globalized now. H&M wants their Russian money and Burger King just got a great opportunity to close in on the Russian market.

10 years from now nobody is going to give a fuck about Ukraine or Russia just like nobody gives a shit about Georgia or Chechnya, or Afghanistan or Syria or Kuwait or...

 

[jje100010001]

Jokes aside I figure Russia is gonna get the Donbas and then some, things will simmer down but not all the way, and the West will try to keep the fire stoked for years.

Ukraine will probably be given an absurd amount of military gear so it doesn't happen again.

The issue is whether or not Ukraine will run out of willing (And skilled) combatants before it runs out of weapons.

If Putin settles for just Donbass and Lughansk, I don’t see him lasting long in power.

 

[DumbDude42]

I don't expect a new Iron Curtain, or at least one that lasts more than 10 years or so. The world's too globalized now. H&M wants their Russian money and Burger King just got a great opportunity to close in on the Russian market.
10 years from now nobody is going to give a fuck about Ukraine or Russia just like nobody gives a shit about Georgia or Chechnya, or Afghanistan or Syria or Kuwait or...

nah this war hits too close to home (europe) to be forgotten like the sandbox adventures of the 1990s and 2000s
i think that unless russia retreats to 2021 borders, europe and america will iron curtain them off for good. instead of an inner german border we'll now have an inner ukrainian border which divides west and east

 

[Fougaro]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

Then you go to /k/ to behold it becoming the endless pink fields of /biz/.

 

[Pointless Sperg]

nah this war hits too close to home (europe) to be forgotten like the sandbox adventures of the 1990s and 2000s
i think that unless russia retreats to 2021 borders, europe and america will iron curtain them off for good. instead of an inner german border we'll now have an inner ukrainian border which divides west and east

The Iron Curtain was set up by the Soviets to stop brain drain. Whether or not this happens again is up to Putin, but given what's happened in only a few months it's probably more likely than not. His end goal is probably trying for the Chinese solution of making the Russian economy attractive enough that the west doesn't want to keep any barriers up, and the quality of life high enough that there's less incentive to flee.

I don't think he'll succeed. Russia is a shithole petro/mineral state. The only skilled people who will stay are those whose ideology lines up enough with the government's, and valued enough by the government that they can afford to live in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

To be a successful shit repressive petro state like Saudi Arabia you have to not piss off the rest of the world too much. To be a successful repressive state that can afford to piss off the world sometimes, you have to provide enough value that nobody can say no.

Whining about troons and faggots being deified is valid, but only goes so far.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

Assuming it ends how I think it will (Kherson Oblast annexed, Donbass captured, and Zaporizhzhya Oblast either completely annexed or split into two secure a complete land bridge to Crimea). Ukraine will remain poor as fuck, but assuming economic aid happens and at least a good chunk of those funds end up where they're supposed to (much, much easier said than done with how bad Ukraine's corruption is) they won't become a total rump state like they would without Odessa. They're still going to lose a lot of their population from either the war itself or the millions of refugees who probably aren't returning, combined with their own population issues before this, long term they're probably fucked.

The West would pass the war off as a pyrrhic Russian victory where Russia did indeed win, but didn't get all it wanted and at great cost to itself. Europe will likely continue to take measures to reduce Russian oil and gas consumption by either getting alternative countries' or new power plants. No matter what the war will cement Russia and China as the new evil empires for the West, which they were already on their way to becoming. Sweden and Finland will join NATO after Turkey gets thrown a bone.

For Russia, they will be fine in the short term as gas and oil prices are high and they can still make a lot of money even with less countries buying, but when they fall they're really going to feel it. Won't be as bad as the disaster that was the 90s for Russia, but it will be much worse than the recession they went through when they annexed Crimea.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Another Uke unit just wants to go home. Looks like all the equipment in the world won't save them

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Russian troops have raised the DPR flag over the city administrative building in Lyman. This video has been geolocated to (48.9798601, 37.8170570) in the center of the city.

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The results of barrages from the TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS

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Assault on Ukrainian stronghold on the way to the "29th checkpoint" by the forces of the reconnaissance platoon of the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 4th separate motorized rifle brigade of the NM LPR.1

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Bonus vids
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I wonder if the Azov regiment really unironically believe they could hold off the armies of a juggernaut.

I guess hindsight is 2020 but they would have been better off withdrawing from Mariupol and stage guerilla attacks.

 

[Garm]

Let's say Russia wins. Then what?

Two US vassal states have been knocked out within a year of each other. Some other geopolitical flashpoint gets lit within 6 months. US and NATO on the back foot as security guarantees are only useful for toilet paper. NATO's sulking about Ukraine keeps Russian sanctions in place. Economies downshift as energy scarcity hits.