Consider these in a battle between likelihoods:
- Ethan Ralph is a convicted violent felon.
- Ethan Ralph is a convicted sexual offender.
- Ethan Ralph publicly relishes in creeping after women.
- Ethan Ralph is a genuine misogynist who routinely says despicable things about women as a whole.
- Ethan Ralph chronically makes personal attacks first and foremost against the wives/girlfriends of people he's having spats with if possible.
- Ethan Ralph desperately pursued sex with a girl who never reciprocated the sentiment, up to and including effectively trying to buy it from her and still being told no.
Call it a personal judgement, but combined with the evidence Alice showed, the fact that there's nothing for her to gain except awful regret and humiliation by the admission, her account of how he acted following the night in question and Ralph's history, I'm gonna have to fall on the side of yeah I've no reason to disbelieve Ralph raped someone. Ralph is the kind of person where rape may have never been beneath him and it's only a matter of time if the chance arises.