War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

Status
Not open for further replies.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article
 
I don't think that Putin has been acting rationally recently. I wonder what the American motive is supposed to be here. The pro-Russians who say that America is behind this, generally also think that millions of Europeans are going to freeze to death this winter. How does Europe freezing to death benefit the US? The theory that the US is behind this makes more sense if you believe that Europe is going to be fine without Russian gas.
Europe isn't going to freeze to death as they've spent months opening up old power plants and stepping up demand for liquid natural gas so that prices rose by three times. It doesn't mean they have no energy issues, but it's not so dire that people will be dying off just because they're cut off from Russian gas as they seriously have been working to come up with energy alternatives for the short term while they work on things like new liquid natural gas import terminals.

The American (or really pro-Ukraine) motive here is just to prevent Germany cucking out and demanding an end to sanctions against Russia or even ending sales of weapons to Ukraine in the hopes of bringing energy costs down. Germany is now forced into giving up Russian gas and now ministers there can't try arguing that they need to support Russia in order to help the German people. American leadership may also have viewed it as a decent idea to take out the pipeline due to viewing America's liquid natural gas as being enough to fill demand for Europe, even though it's limited by the lack of liquid natural gas import and export terminals to even facilitate the trade, but American leadership is generally retarded about energy so it's believable they wouldn't consider that.
 
Italy's next PM has affirmed support for Ukraine:
View attachment 3698327
The media tried to paint the Italian right as pro-Russia. It's true a few had an uncomfortable bromance with Putin, but they turned on him after this insane invasion.


Agreed, two big stories hit during the Farms downtime. I also remember some good posts lost in the hack.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast somehow voted to join Russia >93% despite the referendum being in only the barely half of the country that Russia controls, with a minority of the population.


Damn man are you gonna get mobilized?


I doubt it. Probably just another school shooting. Russia might be a depressing place to be right now so we'll see more people acting out.
Words only have their worths if it's followed by actions, so I'm reserving my judgement on this declaration. That said, if they actually follow through with help, then that means even the Italian right have seen the writing on the wall and there are no longer any benefits in supporting Putin. Orban's position is getting more dangerous now
 
  • Like
Reactions: Le Pew
the idea is that blowing the pipeline is an insurance move for america. it takes away the option for germany to say "fuck burgerland, putin is my new best friend now!" in exchange for cheap gas.
Only the nationalist party and perhaps the socialist/communist party can be considered friendly to Russia. For every other party, the decision to resume trade with Russia would only be temporary because Russia has shown itself to be an unreliable partner.

Europe isn't going to freeze to death as they've spent months opening up old power plants and stepping up demand for liquid natural gas so that prices rose by three times. It doesn't mean they have no energy issues, but it's not so dire that people will be dying off just because they're cut off from Russian gas as they seriously have been working to come up with energy alternatives for the short term while they work on things like new liquid natural gas import terminals.

The American (or really pro-Ukraine) motive here is just to prevent Germany cucking out and demanding an end to sanctions against Russia or even ending sales of weapons to Ukraine in the hopes of bringing energy costs down. Germany is now forced into giving up Russian gas and now ministers there can't try arguing that they need to support Russia in order to help the German people. American leadership may also have viewed it as a decent idea to take out the pipeline due to viewing America's liquid natural gas as being enough to fill demand for Europe, even though it's limited by the lack of liquid natural gas import and export terminals to even facilitate the trade, but American leadership is generally retarded about energy so it's believable they wouldn't consider that.
I don't think that Europe is going to freeze to death, but my point was that this is what many pro-Russian commentators say. They also say that Western governments don't care about their people and are willing to sacrifice them. If that's true, then I don't think that there was ever much of a risk that Europe would cuck to Russia.

Russia slowed down deliveries through Nord Stream 1 and then shut it down completely for a month. As far as I know, there has been no indication that Germany would cuck despite all the Russian 'technical problems' in the last 7 months. The reopening of the pipes is only a bargaining chip if Russia believes that Germany is willing to give in eventually. In private talks between Scholz and Putin, it might have become very clear that the German government would not give in. Every month that Germany is off Russian gas, the pipes become more worthless as a bargaining chip, but perhaps blowing them up now might weaken the German government and create panic in Europe. At the very least it should be considered a warning to the new Baltic Pipe that was opened on the same day. Another benefit to Russia is that it no longer has to pay fines for refusing to deliver the gas. If Russia refused to supply gas when the pipes were functional, Germany would eventually have fined Gazprom or seized assets to pay for the costs of buying from other suppliers.

I'm not going to completely dismiss US glowies ops, but I think that it's very unlikely. The risks are far too great for the potential benefits. There already is a lot of anti-American sentiment in European leftist and nationalist parties and they are already capitalizing on this event to once again accuse America of forcing Europe to sacrifice itself for the American war in Ukraine (because Russia dindu nuffin). If this was indeed an American op, then I don't think that it can be hidden. It seems like the Germans, Danes, Swedes and maybe the Poles are going to investigate this. At least one of those teams is going to leak something.
 
At least one of those teams is going to leak something.
I mean when you’ve got a Polish representative known for saying the truth even when it’s not diplomatic openly thanking the US on Twitter already I think we know what they are going to find.

The question is not ‘did the US do it?’ but ‘how long can we keep that fact out of the public eye and discredit it for? And what will the damages behind the scenes actually be’
 
It seems like the Germans, Danes, Swedes and maybe the Poles are going to investigate this. At least one of those teams is going to leak something.
i'm confident that if it was actually the burgers, they covered their tracks well enough to not be tied to it by any possible investigation later on.
same for the russians, their glowie agencies and their spetsnaz troops are pretty competent, if it was them they probably didn't leave evidence either.
 
I mean when you’ve got a Polish representative known for saying the truth even when it’s not diplomatic openly thanking the US on Twitter already I think we know what they are going to find.

The question is not ‘did the US do it?’ but ‘how long can we keep that fact out of the public eye and discredit it for? And what will the damages behind the scenes actually be’
That's not evidence of anything. My guess is that he, like most Polish politicians, doesn't like that Germany has been dependent on Russian gas. If he thinks that Scholz is a weak leader who's going to give in to Russian demands eventually, he might wish to prevent him from doing that. He's biased and he's making assumptions. Only the German and Russian governments know what has been discussed privately. Putin also knows how much gas Germany usually needs and how much has been delivered from Russia. Based on this knowledge, Putin could either come to the conclusion that Scholz will eventually give in or that he never would. If the latter is the case, then Putin also has a motive.

If the US is responsible, this would be the most explosive scandal in German history, especially if it later turns out that the government tried to suppress it. I don't think that it can be covered up, which is exactly why it would be retarded for the US to even attempt.

Or to say it in a different way:

proofs.png


i'm confident that if it was actually the burgers, they covered their tracks well enough to not be tied to it by any possible investigation later on.
same for the russians, their glowie agencies and their spetsnaz troops are pretty competent, if it was them they probably didn't leave evidence either.
There is no such thing as a perfect crime and at least three of the countries that have an interest in investigating this have access to the most modern technologies. Sweden and Denmark have an interest in investigating this since it happened so close to their maritime borders. Denmark must be especially concerned since the new Baltic Pipe also goes through the country.
 
Just got access back to Kiwifarms.
Been following updates from ISW and Livemap, looks like Ukies are on the verge of encircling Lyman.
Liberating a key city in Luhansk right when Putin is about to announce the annexation will be one of the greatest troll move in military history. A former comedian indeed
 
If an encirclement happens there should be a bunch of Russian prisoners or one hell of a fight. That could get very ugly. Glad I'm on the outside looking in.
Or it plays out like Izyum did, and the defenders mostly flee while there is still a corridor of escape.

Also, assaulting a city while having it encircled is much less of a bloodbath than trying to assault it from only a single direction.
 
Was NS2 constructed by the Russians or by the Germans? If it was by the Russians my bet is the leak is due to an accident caused by shit contruction. If it was built by the Germoids I bet someone forgot to fill out Form 273619373528-SD5-3RZ so the pipe spontaneously combusted once the system realized it had not been fed its bi-hourly stack of paperwork.

Don't really see why the Russians would blow it up unless Putin is big on symbolism all of a sudden. Doubt the Ukrainians could do it. No matter what happens fingers will be pointed by everyone at everyone.
 
I should not have clicked that spoiler.
Someone is clearly in the Waffenmeister bunker waiting for Steiner to counterattack any minute now.
Liberating a key city in Luhansk right when Putin is about to announce the annexation will be one of the greatest troll move in military history. A former comedian indeed
What do you mean former? Putin's set Zelensky up for the perfect punchline. We're looking at the best comedy duo this side of the Elbe.
Was NS2 constructed by the Russians or by the Germans? If it was by the Russians my bet is the leak is due to an accident caused by shit contruction. If it was built by the Germoids I bet someone forgot to fill out Form 273619373528-SD5-3RZ so the pipe spontaneously combusted once the system realized it had not been fed its bi-hourly stack of paperwork.

Don't really see why the Russians would blow it up unless Putin is big on symbolism all of a sudden. Doubt the Ukrainians could do it. No matter what happens fingers will be pointed by everyone at everyone.
Both nations worked on Nordstream 2, but this was the older Nordstream 1 pipe that blew, not Nordstream 2. God only knows how good the maintenance on that was.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Super Saiyan Hitler
I'm pretty sure I'm the only person on here who read Maddow's book "Blowout."

Half of the book is her dunking on how inept and corrupt the Russian natural gas industry is.

Even in the US, pipeline safety is very fraught.


I know a new* pipeline shouldn't just fall apart, but the rooskies are whole (alleged) nation ghetto-rigged from beetroot and wood pulp. Wouldn't surprise me if literally everyone involved from planning to construction to operations was drunker'n shit at the time.

*Edit: I fucking suck. This shit was built in 2011.
 
  • Thunk-Provoking
Reactions: Rezza
Putin's announcement of annexation of the four oblasts is at 3pm local time, or in 6 hours. There's a lot of speculation on what might ensue:
  • More threats of escalation, including nuclear, now that the territory is deemed to be Russian.
  • Switching from calling the war an SMO to a counter-terrorism operation.
  • New legal justifications for yet more widespread conscription now that the motherland itself is threatened and occupied.
  • Basically implying that in future negotiations the status of these territories is not up for debate.
Western analysts are calling this tactic an act of desperation, but I see russiaboos continuing to excitedly declare it's all going according to plan.
 
Western analysts are calling this tactic an act of desperation, but I see russiaboos continuing to excitedly declare it's all going according to plan.
Considering Western analysis has a habit of saying Russia is being desperate publicly and then admitting they were wrong later when they don't think people will notice, I'm going to say they are certainly wrong.
 
It's been months since I've followed the war closely. From what I've heard as of now is that Russia has run out of ammo, still hasn't fixed their logistics, and is now implementing mobilization. Are the vatniks of this site still proclaiming that Russia is totally winning and Putin is going to march to Kyiv? What's the current cope?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back