War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Big Serge may actually be more delusional than Armchair Copelord. He's actually predicting that Russia will conduct several winter offensives to break the Ukrainian forces, which are allegedly tired and out of supplies, just like NATO. He has even given this prediction the very gay name "Winter of Yuri."

His predictions about Lyman and Kherson being failures are already outdated, even though the article is less than a week old.

On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion.

Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.

(...)

Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:

Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.

An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.

Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.

A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.

I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.

During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.

 
Another good video that shows how, just in the last 24 hours, things have gone from bad to worse for Russia. Anyone who doesn't realize that the Russian Army is effectively collapsing right now isn't paying attention.


Curious as to what Putin expects to happen to farm labor after winter is over and his conscripted farmers are dead. He doesn't seem to be thinking long-term here.
He hasn't been thinking long term in a long time.
 
Curious as to what Putin expects to happen to farm labor after winter is over and his conscripted farmers are dead. He doesn't seem to be thinking long-term here.
He's probably going to continue to import workers from the stan countries.

Lol.JPG
 
All the "Ooh, they're going to be able to dig in over the winter and Ukraine will be fucked!" talk is hilarious. Russia can't even properly equip their soldiers with summer gear. Frostbite isn't going to make them tougher despite frozen body parts being harder than unfrozen ones.
Digging in to fuck over your opponent RELIES on the fact that the opponent is on the attack, and considering how the war started, this is one step from the Fifth Stage of Grief
 
Another good video that shows how, just in the last 24 hours, things have gone from bad to worse for Russia. Anyone who doesn't realize that the Russian Army is effectively collapsing right now isn't paying attention.



He hasn't been thinking long term in a long time.
With the original feint to the south by Ukraine Putin moved all his "best" troops down there. That's what is collapsing. It's fascinating.
 
To celebrate today's holiday of Yom Kippur, I think I'll talk about how the Russiaboos' obsession over fake Nazis stops them from making another accusation against Ukraine.

I'm actually quite surprised the Russiaboos haven't leaned on the whole "Jewish conspiracy" angle for the global effort to aid Ukraine. I mean, come on, it checks all the boxes.

-The leader of Ukraine is Jewish.
-Most of the people who usually freak out about Nazis support Ukraine.
-Most media in the west which is either friendly towards Jews or owned by Jews support Ukraine.
-The global western power bloc which supports Jews and the Israelis on occasion support Ukraine.

I suppose this is what happens when Putin tells his pawns that the line they're supposed to say is that the Ukrainians are Nazis. Even the unpaid trolls who shill for him have to stick to the script, lest they make Putin look stupid.

Y'know, at least the Chinese 50 cent army (Wu Mao) are paid to stick to the script and propagandize. Russiaboo shills are that pathetic that they'll do something someone does for money for free. I'd have actually respected them more if, instead of whining about fictional Nazis, they started whining about the Rothschilds supporting Ukraine or something. Because at least that could be closer to the truth, what with Ukrainian forces taking orders from a Jew.

Then again, the Vatniks are dumb enough that I'm expecting them to whine about Jewish Nazis and say that the two groups were conspiring together to take down GLORIOUS MOTHER RUSSIA.
 
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How many losses is it going to take for Russians to reconsider this whole thing? Putin is just going to keep sending more meat into the grinder as long as they let him.
All this talk about "Defending the motherland", but from fucking what? No one attacked us, we are the aggressor. The supposed Western threat only exists in the heads of vatniks, mostly thanks to Putin's propaganda that revived anti-Western sentiment of the Cold War era that had all but died by the early 2000s.
I'm afraid that absence of independent media is going to ensure that Putin's electorate remains docile and ignorant of the reality on the front.

At this rate I'll have to leave this country like so many others along with whatever sanity remained.
 
How many losses is it going to take for Russians to reconsider this whole thing?
meaningless because it makes no difference what they think about the situation.
the chekists in power care about two things only. first their personal position of power in the russian state, second their imperial ambition to expand that state. the commoners well-being is not part of the equation for them.

as long as the instruments of power (army, police, national guard, glowie agencies) remain functional and in the hands of putins regime, nothing else matters, and i don't see how that would change any time soon.
 
To celebrate today's holiday of Yom Kippur, I think I'll talk about how the Russiaboos' obsession over fake Nazis stops them from making another accusation against Ukraine.

I'm actually quite surprised the Russiaboos haven't leaned on the whole "Jewish conspiracy" angle for the global effort to aid Ukraine. I mean, come on, it checks all the boxes.

-The leader of Ukraine is Jewish.
-Most of the people who usually freak out about Nazis support Ukraine.
-Most media in the west which is either friendly towards Jews or owned by Jews support Ukraine.
-The global western power bloc which supports Jews and the Israelis on occasion support Ukraine.

I suppose this is what happens when Putin tells his pawns that the line they're supposed to say is that the Ukrainians are Nazis. Even the unpaid trolls who shill for him have to stick to the script, lest they make Putin look stupid.

Y'know, at least the Chinese 50 cent army (Wu Mao) are paid to stick to the script and propagandize. Russiaboo shills are that pathetic that they'll do something someone does for money for free. I'd have actually respected them more if, instead of whining about fictional Nazis, they started whining about the Rothschilds supporting Ukraine or something. Because at least that could be closer to the truth, what with Ukrainian forces taking orders from a Jew.

Then again, the Vatniks are dumb enough that I'm expecting them to whine about Jewish Nazis and say that the two groups were conspiring together to take down GLORIOUS MOTHER RUSSIA.
All the whining about jews and nazis from vatniks has to be some kind of psychosis, an almost nationwide one for the Russians. It's just baffling coming from Russians seeing as
A: The Russians seemingly had no problems helping out the Nazis with spitroasting Poland
B: How fucking shit must the Soviets have been to the Ukrainians to have them look fondly upon the Nazis
C: There are Nazis in every country on planet earth including Russia, and I bet most militaries have alot of dudes in them that people would call "Nazis". Should every country just invade eachother to "de-nazify" the world?
D: Nazis had kickass uniforms unlike the Soviets/Russians so they win the fashion show
E: If you're gonna complain about how everyone else is a Nazi maybe don't do speeches about how an entire ethnic group doesn't really exist, how everyone in the west is a degenerate, and all while praising Islam. Because you know, parallels.
F: Nazis at least gave us a few great things. What has Russia given the world other than starvations, wars, commie infiltration, and pedo "literature"?
 
All the whining about jews and nazis from vatniks has to be some kind of psychosis, an almost nationwide one for the Russians. It's just baffling coming from Russians seeing as
A: The Russians seemingly had no problems helping out the Nazis with spitroasting Poland
B: How fucking shit must the Soviets have been to the Ukrainians to have them look fondly upon the Nazis
C: There are Nazis in every country on planet earth including Russia, and I bet most militaries have alot of dudes in them that people would call "Nazis". Should every country just invade eachother to "de-nazify" the world?
D: Nazis had kickass uniforms unlike the Soviets/Russians so they win the fashion show
E: If you're gonna complain about how everyone else is a Nazi maybe don't do speeches about how an entire ethnic group doesn't really exist, how everyone in the west is a degenerate, and all while praising Islam. Because you know, parallels.
F: Nazis at least gave us a few great things. What has Russia given the world other than starvations, wars, commie infiltration, and pedo "literature"?
E thots
 
meaningless because it makes no difference what they think about the situation.
the chekists in power care about two things only. first their personal position of power in the russian state, second their imperial ambition to expand that state. the commoners well-being is not part of the equation for them.

as long as the instruments of power (army, police, national guard, glowie agencies) remain functional and in the hands of putins regime, nothing else matters, and i don't see how that would change any time soon.
Hoping for a miracle here. Looking for every reason not to abandon my home and everything I've ever known. I wanted a simple life, never bothered anyone and expected only that much from others. So much for that.
These are hard times, and I guess it's time to be strong so the times are good again.

All that said, news of Putin's death when I wake up would make me the happiest man on Earth. Dear Santa...
 
These are hard times, and I guess it's time to be strong so the times are good again.
unless you have the kind of strength that lets you pull off some sort of 21st century version of lenins october revolution, it's pretty doomed i think. and i don't think a power grab like that is possible unless the regime suffers a heavy loss of power first, like lenins takeover was not possible until after the tsars regime had already collapsed on its own due to the war disaster.

i obviously don't know the situation inside russia first hand, but between the threat of being arrested and gulag'd for dissident speech and the possibility of being mobilized and sent to die in ukraine (or jailed as a deserter) it seems pretty grim, especially if russian prisons really are as nightmarish as their reputation makes them out to be.

maybe it's not so bad if you live in a remote place that nobody cares about, or if you have a reliable way to avoid the mobilisation, i don't know. but remaining inside russia as a fighting age male who also dislikes the government seems very dangerous right now.
 
There are Nazis in every country on planet earth including Russia, and I bet most militaries have alot of dudes in them that people would call "Nazis". Should every country just invade eachother to "de-nazify" the world?
To be sure, Putin addresses that argument:
He says yes there are Nazis everywhere, but in Ukraine they're in the government.

And I'm sure the next country he wants to invade will also suddenly be found to be run by Nazis.
 
With the original feint to the south by Ukraine Putin moved all his "best" troops down there. That's what is collapsing. It's fascinating.
They're bridges were cut and only barely repaired or partly replaced with rafts or other improvised efforts, and while there is an extensive enough railway network, which they depend on for logistics, HIMARS and their own rockets have been making a mess of already poor logistics centres.



Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel with a clip of Russians surrendering. He has no information on the location.
 
They're bridges were cut and only barely repaired or partly replaced with rafts or other improvised efforts, and while there is an extensive enough railway network, which they depend on for logistics, HIMARS and their own rockets have been making a mess of already poor logistics centres.


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Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel with a clip of Russians surrendering. He has no information on the location.
I'm sure the Ukranian infantry appreciate the gift of a running BMP (-2M? I am not the best at IDing commie apvs...). Feel free to well, akchually, and correct me lol
 
~500 people, drafted Russians. Dropped god knows where WITH WEAPONS (though had to look for the ammo themselves), complaining about, well... everything.
Had to feed themselves, were kept in terrible conditions, a lot of them are sick and not even fit for service etc. Issued weapons are not even registered on them, which is a serious violation.

This is a recipe for fun times.
They're bridges were cut and only barely repaired or partly replaced with rafts or other improvised efforts, and while there is an extensive enough railway network, which they depend on for logistics, HIMARS and their own rockets have been making a mess of already poor logistics centres.


View attachment 3717797
Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel with a clip of Russians surrendering. He has no information on the location.
This is really nice to see, they did the right thing. I hope for their own good that they didn't do anything beforehand that would warrant a bullet to the head.
Looks professional.

Just stumbled upon a curious video
Supposedly this shows arrival of the FSB insider to America, whose evacuation took over 4 months of planning.
They're promising to provide information on over 50 members of FSB and expose checkists, their corruption schemes, tortures and murders, as well as details regarding recruiting in prisons for the war in Ukraine.

This might prove to be quite juicy. Wish I was on that plane as well though.
 
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