I haven't been able to keep up with things so I don't really have much to provide as input beyond occasional lurking and hoping not to just have pages of insult slinging, other than that my initial predictions were terrifically incorrect. Then again, so was much of the rest of the world's. An overestimation of Russian capabilities and an underestimation of Ukrainian capabilities (and the levels of western aid provided over time) combined. I still think that this war had no real reason to happen that couldn't have been resolved with trivial diplomatic efforts, and that the longer this goes on the worse it is for everybody. My initial conclusions were based off of an expectation for either Ukrainian resistance to falter, or for Russian will to fight to collapse for lack of a quick resolution and fear of an extended conflict, within three months. Eight months in and we see exactly how much stock that theory held.
So honestly the worst thing that I can see happening is also what I see to be a very likely one, where this becomes a conflict measured in years. One might point out that Russia doesn't seem to have the capacity to fight an extended war, and I'd point out that Russians have historically been quite tenacious in wars when they were least expected to. It's never unhealthy to not underestimate a side in a conflict, even if I could legitimately not tell you how things could take a quick turn.
See, I think the strongest comparison this war has to another conflict isn't one most would make comparisons to. Another war involving Russia and another seeming underdog that wasn't really expected to do as well as they did by the general public. The Russo-Japanese War. See, the Japanese, in case you aren't familiar with that war, soundly beat the Russians, taking both the land and the sea (twice over) and rendering the Russian Empire completely incapable of decisive action. After all, they had nothing left to send, and unrest and instability made raising up yet another army and naval assets to send over infeasible.
This contemporary woodblock print art is not exactly inaccurate, in a metaphorical sense.
Spoiler for gay race mixing anal rape, in case you don't want to see that. Not that the Russo-Ukraine War hasn't had its fair share of gay shit, but as far as I know it hasn't had gay anime shit. Yet.
Now I prefer to view things from an impartial, historical standpoint, and I know some would say that's just the quickest way to make both sides hate you, but I think it's the only way to actually have exchanges of ideas rather than chimp screeching.
So I don't think it's unfair to say, even to the most ardent vatniks, that this war has not gone as Russia wanted it to and that what Russia was willing to commit was not enough to accomplish the objectives set out by far. Back to the comparison to the Russo-Japanese War, though. Japan, despite its victories (which I view as far more decisive than Ukrainian ones, it was just a different scale of conflict) could not prosecute a long war. Russia's economic situation was far from ideal, but Japan was similarly borrowing on loans they would not be able to sustain. Hence the resolution. Neither side could afford to have their bitch fight, and thus third party mediation was sought out.
Now the history books will readily put forth that the Russo-Japanese War was an easy Japanese victory, but the fact of the matter was, Tsar Nicholas II was completely willing to go for yet another round. Who knows what might have happened. Maybe the Russians would find an unlikely second wind, maybe the Tsar would get shot by his own people sooner than he historically did. Likely the latter, but history has taken more surprising turns than that.
So I'm rather concerned that Russian stubbornness to not throw in the towel and the necessity of foreign aid for Ukraine to keep its momentum up will cause this to become even more of a protracted money hole. Some people might not particularly care about Biden printing however many more trillions to do this (even giving away equipment incurs cost- it's not like somebody coming over to pick up a tv that's only taking up space in the closet), but then these same people wonder why their dollar doesn't buy as much as it used to, and why their stock portfolios are tanking. I don't think the Ukrainians disagree with this either- Zaluzhnyi wants the Ukrainian Army in 2023 to boast 10-20 new Maneuver Brigades with NATO equivalent gear. To put that more into (very sloppy and inexact) perspective, the VII Corps in Desert Storm, the principle US combat formation, not counting the British 1st Armored Division, was made up of about ten mechanized brigades, without mentioning other attached assets, and about 1500 each of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, the latter of which Ukraine does not have much of. I have no idea of how a force that is at least as powerful as the one that smashed apart the Iraqis is going to be paid for, but I hope the answer is not foreign taxpayers. Such a massive step up tells me they see things going one of two ways, though- either they're anticipating that Russia may in fact be able to draw up a big enough force to make 10-20 mechanized brigades a necessity...or it's a big bluff to try and dissuade the Russians from continuing to hold out. I certainly hope it's the latter for everybody's sake.
Now I've been massively wrong in the past. Maybe I'll be wrong again, and things will end sooner rather than later, but I don't see it.
