Business Company Documents Show Meta’s Flagship Metaverse Falling Short - Most visitors to Horizon Worlds generally don’t return after first month; ‘an empty world is a sad world’

1666029509374.png
An avatar of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg spoke earlier this week at an event promoting the company’s metaverse offerings. MICHAEL NAGLE/BLOOMBERG NEWS

By Jeff Horwitz, Salvador Rodriguez and Meghan Bobrowsky
Oct. 15, 2022 5:30 am ET

Nearly a year after Mark Zuckerberg rebranded Facebook as Meta Platforms Inc. in a bet-the-company move on the metaverse, internal documents show the transition grappling with glitchy technology, uninterested users and a lack of clarity about what it will take to succeed.

While Mr. Zuckerberg has said the transition to a more immersive online experience will take years, the company’s flagship metaverse offering for consumers, Horizon Worlds, is falling short of internal performance expectations.

Meta initially set a goal of reaching 500,000 monthly active users for Horizon Worlds by the end of this year, but in recent weeks revised that figure to 280,000. The current tally is less than 200,000, the documents show.

Most visitors to Horizon generally don’t return to the app after the first month, and the user base has steadily declined since the spring, according to the documents, which include internal memos from employees.

By comparison, Meta’s social-media products, including Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, together attract more than 3.5 billion average monthly users—a figure equivalent to almost half the world’s population. Horizon is currently reaching less than the population of Sioux Falls, S.D.

Horizon is designed to be a sprawling collection of interactive virtual spaces, or worlds, in which users appearing as avatars can shop, party and work. Yet there are rarely any girls in the Hot Girl Summer Rooftop Pool Party, and in Murder Village there is often no one to kill. Even the company’s showcase worlds, such as Questy’s, a virtual arcade featured in a Super Bowl commercial earlier this year, are mostly barren of users.

According to internal statistics, only 9% of worlds built by creators are ever visited by at least 50 people. Most are never visited at all.

“An empty world is a sad world,” said one document summarizing the company’s efforts to herd users toward venues where they would encounter others.

1666029556022.png
Questy’s, a virtual arcade featured in a Super Bowl commercial, hasn’t drawn many users.

A Meta spokesman said the company’s metaverse efforts were always intended to be a multiyear project, and that it is making improvements, including many designed to keep users safe. He said it is easy to be a cynic about the metaverse, but that the company continues to believe it is the future of computing.

Horizon is accessible through Meta’s Quest virtual-reality headsets, which offer a range of games and activities. Quest retention rates, meaning continued use by owners, have dropped in each of the past three years, the documents show. More than half of Quest headsets—the entry model costs about $400—aren’t in use six months after they are purchased, according to people familiar with the data.

In a survey of Horizon users, Meta researchers said users reported that they couldn’t find metaverse worlds they liked and couldn’t find other people to hang out with. Other complaints included that “people do not look real” and that the avatars don’t have legs.

The researchers noted that the survey included only 514 people because the available pool of users to survey is “small and precious.”

The number of Horizon users online at the same time, known as concurrency, trails far behind both the socially focused upstart VR Chat and Second Life, the pioneering cyberworld that was launched in 2003, said people familiar with the matter.

To deal with persistent bugs and user complaints, Meta last month quietly put Horizon on “lockdown,” meaning it is pausing the launch of new features until it improves the current user experience, the documents show.

The company’s metaverse challenges coincide with business issues on other fronts, including increasing pressure on its digital-ad business and competition from social-media app TikTok. Meta shares are down more than 60% in the past year. The company has lost more than $700 billion in market value since the peak in September 2021.

At a metaverse-themed event on Tuesday, Mr. Zuckerberg unveiled a new virtual-reality headset called the Quest Pro, which is aimed at making it easier for architects, engineers and designers to work in the metaverse. With a $1,500 price tag, it isn’t aimed at average consumers, but Mr. Zuckerberg said it would set a new standard for metaverse technology. He also promised that avatars would soon get legs in Horizon.

1666029594600.png
On Tuesday, Mr. Zuckerberg unveiled the Quest Pro, a virtual-reality headset designed for professionals to use in the workplace.
PHOTO: MICHAEL NAGLE/BLOOMBERG NEWS


Meta has said it plans to expand the experience to more people with a web version of Horizon for mobile devices and computers. It had said it planned to launch that version this year, but when asked on Tuesday if that was still the case, a spokesman said Meta didn’t have any launch dates to disclose.

Other tech giants, including Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc., are developing products on the belief that the metaverse is the next digital frontier.

Rolf Illenberger, chief executive of virtual-reality software company VRdirect, said in an interview that Horizon has issues to address, but asked critics to have patience and recognize that the industry is still developing. “We’re trying to land on the moon, and people are complaining that the coffee machine’s not working,” he said.

The metaverse was supposed to offer Meta a fresh start as it faces other business pressures and negative publicity. The new strategy was announced weeks after the leak of thousands of pages of internal records documenting the business struggles and societal downsides of the company’s social-media products, documented in a Wall Street Journal series called The Facebook Files.

The company’s announcement that it was pivoting to focus on the metaverse kicked off a corporate rush to stake claims on the new format. Companies hired “chief metaverse officers.” Hucksters sold metaverse real estate. Luxury brands Balenciaga and Prada joined with Meta to promote digital clothes, and even liquor makers such as Absolut Vodka opened bars and distilleries in the metaverse.

In a Meta memo titled “AR, VR or the Metaverse: Which is the next billion-user platform?”, Dare Obasanjo, lead product manager for Horizon and the metaverse platform, wrote: “You will have freedom of identity and expression and can hang out, work, play, learn, shop, create and more in an endless number of virtual worlds that could not exist in real life.”

While Mr. Obasanjo said that the metaverse—which is accessible not just by virtual reality headsets but PCs, mobile phones and augmented-reality products such as smart glasses—has a better shot at mass adoption than augmented or virtual reality products, Meta hasn’t yet pulled together a strategy for investing in it.

“Currently it’s unclear where the metaverse fits in the investment framework,“ he wrote in the memo. ”We are overdue for a reassessment of how we invest and allocate resources.”

Meta has canceled or delayed early metaverse-related products, and current and former employees said there is disagreement inside the company about whether Horizon should be focused on games or, as is Mr. Zuckerberg’s preference, social connection.

In a memo last month announcing the lockdown of Horizon, which was first reported by the tech publication the Verge, Meta’s Metaverse Vice President Vishal Shah wrote that the core thesis for the metaverse has proven to be strong. But stability issues and complaints from creators, he said, are “making it too hard for our community to enjoy the magic of Horizon.”

Part of the problem, he said, is that Meta employees aren’t using the product enough themselves. “The simple truth is, if we don’t love it, how can we expect our users to love it?” he wrote.

1666029643417.png
A Meta employee prepares to demonstrate a videogame that uses a virtual-reality headset.
PHOTO: JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES


Among the persistent complaints from early adopters and testers, according to the documents, are that users have trouble adjusting to the technology, and that other users behave badly.

On a recent night, a female Journal reporter visited one of Horizon’s most popular virtual worlds, the Soapstone Comedy Club. It had about 20 users in it, all appearing as avatars. When the reporter introduced herself and tried to conduct an interview with a small group, one user replied: “You can report on me, baby.” The same user then asked her to expose herself.

One user who was flirting with a woman in the crowd was interrupted by what appeared to be his real-life girlfriend yelling obscenities at him in the background.

According to the documents, men outnumber women in Horizon by two to one. One safety feature Horizon has introduced is an option for users to create the equivalent of a 4-foot personal boundary for their avatars to deter unwanted physical contact.

The next day, a male Journal reporter visited a “house party” in which he was one of two people in attendance. He and the other avatar jumped into a boxing ring and fought for a round while wearing jack-o-lantern sparring headgear, then played beer pong. The other avatar never spoke and the game ended after about 10 minutes. The reporter’s avatar later fell into the pool and couldn’t figure out how to get out. There was no one around to help.

Some Horizon users said in interviews they already spend many hours a day in the metaverse, entranced by the serendipitous interaction it can yield. One user who said she was homebound after a kidney transplant said it was her principal source of recreation.

Beginners, however, can run into trouble. Carlos Silva, a 41-year-old IT project manager in Maryland, bought a Quest 2 and joined Horizon early last year hoping to find more social interaction during the pandemic. On the first day, when he went to the main meeting space, no one was there.

“I was like, you know, this is the whole reason why I bought this thing,” he said. “So I’m going to figure this out, how to find where to go and how to meet people.”

These days, he runs tours in Horizon every Wednesday, helping new players find their way around. He said interest in the tours peaked around last Christmas. Back then, he said, he was seeing up to 400 unique visitors per tour, but that number has dwindled to 150 or less in recent months. The metaverse, he said, is about “the future in like 10 years, not the future next year.”

Meta wants users like Mr. Silva to create their own worlds using Horizon’s tools, which allow them to take 3-D objects like cubes and spheres and shape them into things like trees and chairs. But less than 1% of users are creating their own worlds, the documents show.

Meta’s researchers found that, though many of Horizon’s early creators became unengaged, they could be won back. “Many say they would return if pain points are fixed,” read one memo about creation attrition.

Many of them were frustrated by another issue Meta is grappling with: how users can make money in the metaverse.

On other social-media platforms, including TikTok and Meta’s Instagram, influencers and other creators can make money through brand endorsements, among other things. There isn’t yet anything similar in the metaverse.

“Some creators have a desire to work full time in the metaverse,” said the Meta memo. “If there were full-time roles with the right compensation, some creators would make building the metaverse their full-time day job.”

While Meta has supported some worlds with bonus payments to the people responsible for them, efforts to promote other forms of commerce are still nascent. The most lucrative of Horizon’s worlds has cumulatively brought in $10,000 in “In-World Payments,” the documents show, and a feature to tip creators has yielded total payouts of $470.

Sheharzad Arshad, a 39-year-old graphic designer in Toronto, has built 18 worlds since January, some inspired by movies he loves. His most popular, “Spider-verse,” has drawn roughly 20,000 visitors since he published it in May.

He said the Quest 2 headset’s $399.99 sticker price is too steep for many of his friends and family, limiting the reach.

Nonetheless, he said, he intends to purchase the next version of the headset and dig even deeper into the metaverse. “The direction that they’re moving in, it’s really good,” he said.

Source (Archive)
 
When the reporter introduced herself and tried to conduct an interview with a small group, one user replied: “You can report on me, baby.” The same user then asked her to expose herself.
One user who was flirting with a woman in the crowd was interrupted by what appeared to be his real-life girlfriend yelling obscenities at him in the background.
The reporter’s avatar later fell into the pool and couldn’t figure out how to get out. There was no one around to help.

Pool's closed due to journalism.
 
I really don't understand how anyone at Facebook thought this was going to succeed. Right from the jump it relies on a technology platform (VR) that only about 0.005% - 0.02% of the world population even has reasonable access to (i.e. they personally own a headset or live in a home with a VR headset available for them to use), besides that it doesn't even work with all VR headsets, but is exclusively locked to Oculus Rift S and Oculus Quest 2 devices, which have an even smaller VR market share of that overall VR-accessible percentage. The point being that almost no one can access their platform and besides that, it's entirely dystopic, sterile and uncanny such that those who even do have the ability to hop in likely won't as the primal fear of having a VR Zuck goblin suck out their souls through their eye cavities is far too strong for the average person to overcome.

The silver lining: If they continue to dump endless amounts of cash into this failed-from-the-start project maybe we'll get to eventually witness the death of Facebook.
 
Online social worlds have been "10 years away" for the last 25 years. In the 90s it was VRML and Active Worlds (which I'm surprised to learn is still around). In the 2000s it was Second Life and shit like Habbo Hotel and Club Penguin. Now it's this. Only the most autistic turbonerds actually want to interact in these worlds. Normal people see this as a gimmick, to be checked out a few times out of curiosity and then never used again. They can improve the technology as much as they want and that fact will never change.
 
It's almost like vr is and always has been nothing but a silly gimmick that adds nothing to things like shopping and second life stopped being popular years and years ago.
I'd disagree with a silly gimmick, but what it is, is anathema to casual users of every stripe.

VR is not relaxing. VR is by design, immersive, engaging, and requires a significant amount of effort compared to simply laying on a couch with a controller or sitting in front of a webcam on a zoom call. Using VR for gaming is the antithesis of what the average person wants outta videogames, which is a lazy afternoon of minimal effort fun after a long day of work. Any VR game thats compatible with sitting down and doing nothing is at best a novelty visual experience (Flight sim games like Elite Dangerous) or just a bad VR game with absolutely minimal interaction. On the same front, the whole advantage of digital communications is ease of access, affordability, and convenience. Trying to do VR hangouts or VR Meetings negates all of this, requiring the person to fully immerse away from everything else, have expensive hardware, and spend the time to pull it out, set it up, clear their playspace, etc.

VR is, in its current iteration, an enthusiast option, for people who do genuinely want that immersive, all involved experience, and want it for hours on end. It makes sense for certain kinds of gameplay, certain kinds of interactions, but not all. It would take another VR revolution ranging from nearly hardware free, think no controllers and VR contact lenses, or something in the realm of science fiction like direct brain interfacing.

The metaverse concept has always been doomed at this stage, its the worst possible combination of factors for the average consumer. Zuck just seems convinced he can overcome all that with enough advertising spend, which goes to show just how far social media has managed to rot even his brain.
 
Zuckerberg does realize social MMOs aren't exactly a new thing right?
It's not even the first VR social MMO, but the reason VR Chat is popular is because it allows the target demographic of VR headsets (neets, coomers) to explore their particular niche interests. There is nothing in the Metaverse that will attract the demographics that already have VR headsets nor will it convince anyone else to buy a VR headset.
 
I'd disagree with a silly gimmick, but what it is, is anathema to casual users of every stripe.

VR is not relaxing. VR is by design, immersive, engaging, and requires a significant amount of effort compared to simply laying on a couch with a controller or sitting in front of a webcam on a zoom call. Using VR for gaming is the antithesis of what the average person wants outta videogames, which is a lazy afternoon of minimal effort fun after a long day of work. Any VR game thats compatible with sitting down and doing nothing is at best a novelty visual experience (Flight sim games like Elite Dangerous) or just a bad VR game with absolutely minimal interaction. On the same front, the whole advantage of digital communications is ease of access, affordability, and convenience. Trying to do VR hangouts or VR Meetings negates all of this, requiring the person to fully immerse away from everything else, have expensive hardware, and spend the time to pull it out, set it up, clear their playspace, etc.

VR is, in its current iteration, an enthusiast option, for people who do genuinely want that immersive, all involved experience, and want it for hours on end. It makes sense for certain kinds of gameplay, certain kinds of interactions, but not all. It would take another VR revolution ranging from nearly hardware free, think no controllers and VR contact lenses, or something in the realm of science fiction like direct brain interfacing.

The metaverse concept has always been doomed at this stage, its the worst possible combination of factors for the average consumer. Zuck just seems convinced he can overcome all that with enough advertising spend, which goes to show just how far social media has managed to rot even his brain.
VR won't be truly successful until the technology improves to the point such that:
1. It's lightweight and comfortable to wear. On par with at most the weight of a bicycle helmet.
2. The resolution and refresh rate are sufficiently high enough as to completely avoid eyestrain and induced migraines. I'd wager it would need to be whatever the VR equivalent of 1440p is and 200+hz as to be mostly indistinguishable from the average "refresh rate" of the human eye (yes, I know eyes don't really operate at a "refresh rate", but general equivalence to be mostly comfortable in a VR setting for extended periods I'd guess to be around 200hz).
3. Tracking latency, frame lag and input lag need to consistently result below 3-5ms. Above 5ms or with regular spikes above 5ms people are more likely to feel sick from using their device and thus encouraged to use it less.
4. The headsets need to be capable of running games at or very near to the same quality of popular PC titles. Right now due to the way VR handles itself everything gets processed twice before being sent to the headset. This necessitates games that mostly look like shit and are incapable of rendering scenes with modern techniques. While personally I am not a graphics nigger myself, most people are genuinely retarded (world average IQ is around 85) and care more that a game is shiny and smooth looking than if it's actually good.
5. It needs to be way cheaper to get into. Sure, you can buy an Oculus Quest 2 for $400 (which still isn't that cheap), but the Oculus Quest 2 is fucking garbage. Until people can start getting room-scale VR sets at the quality of something like Steam's Valve index for around that same $400, then the vast majority of VR tech adopters will continue to be mostly comprised of single, middle aged, soytech consoomers who only feel alive when they buy next newest thing.
 
VR is not relaxing. VR is by design, immersive, engaging, and requires a significant amount of effort compared to simply laying on a couch with a controller or sitting in front of a webcam on a zoom call. Using VR for gaming is the antithesis of what the average person wants outta videogames, which is a lazy afternoon of minimal effort fun after a long day of work. Any VR game thats compatible with sitting down and doing nothing is at best a novelty visual experience (Flight sim games like Elite Dangerous) or just a bad VR game with absolutely minimal interaction. On the same front, the whole advantage of digital communications is ease of access, affordability, and convenience. Trying to do VR hangouts or VR Meetings negates all of this, requiring the person to fully immerse away from everything else, have expensive hardware, and spend the time to pull it out, set it up, clear their playspace, etc.
So, essentially it's a silly gimmick.
 
Zuckerberg does realize social MMOs aren't exactly a new thing right?
so it's basically a second Second life?
It's not even the first VR social MMO, but the reason VR Chat is popular is because it allows the target demographic of VR headsets (neets, coomers) to explore their particular niche interests. There is nothing in the Metaverse that will attract the demographics that already have VR headsets nor will it convince anyone else to buy a VR headset.
Lots of people have already touched on it, but Meta or whatever they're calling it didn't really break any new ground that other games did 10-20 years ago. Every promo I've seen for it, the graphics look laughably bad. It looks like some concept social MMO from circa 2009. I know there's always going to be the consoomers that just have to consoom everything, but I'm honestly shocked they even went with something like this in the 2020s, especially with most MMOs dwindling to hemorrhaging subs.
 
VR won't be truly successful until the technology improves to the point such that:
1. It's lightweight and comfortable to wear. On par with at most the weight of a bicycle helmet.
2. The resolution and refresh rate are sufficiently high enough as to completely avoid eyestrain and induced migraines. I'd wager it would need to be whatever the VR equivalent of 1440p is and 200+hz as to be mostly indistinguishable from the average "refresh rate" of the human eye (yes, I know eyes don't really operate at a "refresh rate", but general equivalence to be mostly comfortable in a VR setting for extended periods I'd guess to be around 200hz).
3. Tracking latency, frame lag and input lag need to consistently result below 3-5ms. Above 5ms or with regular spikes above 5ms people are more likely to feel sick from using their device and thus encouraged to use it less.
4. The headsets need to be capable of running games at or very near to the same quality of popular PC titles. Right now due to the way VR handles itself everything gets processed twice before being sent to the headset. This necessitates games that mostly look like shit and are incapable of rendering scenes with modern techniques. While personally I am not a graphics nigger myself, most people are genuinely retarded (world average IQ is around 85) and care more that a game is shiny and smooth looking than if it's actually good.
5. It needs to be way cheaper to get into. Sure, you can buy an Oculus Quest 2 for $400 (which still isn't that cheap), but the Oculus Quest 2 is fucking garbage. Until people can start getting room-scale VR sets at the quality of something like Steam's Valve index for around that same $400, then the vast majority of VR tech adopters will continue to be mostly comprised of single, middle aged, soytech consoomers who only feel alive when they buy next newest thing.
Y'all will have to excuse my defense of all this, but as a hobby dev I'm actually overinvested in this lol so its something I've paid a lot of attention to.

1. We are already here - The weight of the headsets is already quite low, its more a balance and ergonomics issue at this point. Facebooks quest headset is ~500 grams, an ultralight bike helmet is 250-400 grams. Something fancy like a Valve Index is ~800g. A motorcycle helmet, a sort of upper limit for "what can you wear on your head for a long period and not actually hurt yourself" sits around 1500g. A lot of headsets are starting to explore moving components like power supplies around to the back of the set to improve balance and decrease perceived weight. The next big hurdle is the cable for PC sets, and 6ghz wireless looks like it'll be the solution, already being available for some headsets and coming soon to most other lead ones.

2. We are also more or less here. This has been well studied, and the threshold isn't 200hz, its 90hz. Right now this does require either low complexity graphics or low resolutions to be pulled off by something cheap like a Quest headset, but its already doable. And technology such as Foveated rendering, where an internal camera tracks the eye and renders just what the eye is actively looking at in full resolution should reduce the resolution/complexity/framerate triangle tradeoff even more. This mimics how the eye behaves and is reportedly not worse looking for it. And this isn't some speculative lab tech, the PSVR2 headset is launching with it. A poor mans version of the technology is already used for some products, where they just do full resolution at the center of where your head is pointing.

3. Once again, we are already here. The lighthouse tech used by SteamVR has a 250hz refresh rate with a wireless setup, well under the tolerances. Meta using 30/60hz refresh is a choice to keep it cheap, not because its not doable otherwise.

4. They already are. The headset, even with its rendering oddities, isn't generally the main limiter to the performance, the persons computer is. Right now, getting 'max' performance out of a high end headset like an Index is comparable to running a game in 4k 60fps - entirely doable, but the domain of high end enthusiast computing. Its also worth considering that most VR devs are indie devs, and aren't well equipped to try and compete with current gen AAA graphics in the first place even if they wanted to. But its hard to look at a game like Half Life Alyx and argue that it looks like shit. There's also studies around how in VR, the human brain seems to fill in a lot more detail that isn't there, sort of trying to convince itself this space is more real. Its a subjective thing and hard to nail down, but less seems to go for more in the space.

5. This is main hurdle that I 100% agree with and will take another 10 years to really sort out. Valve got the ball rolling on the chicken or egg problem of "Need an audience to mass produce for cheaper manufacturing, but need to start selling good products to build an audience to develop interest". We're now seeing more players entering, more competition, and more innovation. The race to develop that aforemention foveated rendering tech stands poised to seriously reduce the processing power required for a good experience, meaning those 2 eye 1440p 90hz expectations become "have a recent gpu" instead of "Have a newest gen gpu". Tracking technology is improving, both outside in like the steam lighthouses, and inside out like Quest. The equipment is getting cheaper and easier to make as people find shortcuts and optimize things.

VR's come a lot farther than some people seem to give it credit for - We do actually have all the pieces now, we just need to get the ball rolling. We're in a similar state to early 3d games - Still figuring out how controls should work, what feels right, what looks right, how to get more for less processing power, and so on.
So, essentially it's a silly gimmick.
If all you play is sports games, call of duty, and the new assassins creed every other year, then yes, its a gimmick for you. And since this makes up the average consumer, its a big problem. If your the kind of person who already likes to play simulators, or shooters, or just likes physical sports as much as you like videogames, this offers new opportunities. Again, this is why its so stupid at this juncture for Facebook to invest billions trying to make it the next mass market thing. It doesn't solve a problem for the average consumer.

Its like noticing that farmers have made use of Drones to help maintain and patrol their properties for fence damage and the like, and trying to sell suburbanites on home drones that'll tell you when the lawn needs to be mowed or where the weeds are that need to be picked - Kinda pointless for the average joe, innit.
 
Back