The chance of Lucas having 2 followers with the same name isn't unimaginable.
What's the chance of trooning out? So 0.5% of 18-24 are trans and 0.3% are over 65, who identify as trans. That's less than 1% (too high). Let's just say 1%.
Another website claims 111.79 Collins exist in 100k people in the USA. Let's just assume the entire planet is America. Divide that by 2 first so it's just men. 4,480,000 male Collins in the world. 0.27% and 0.08% are named Benjamin and Ben respectively, makes a total 15680 Ben Collins world wide, that's assuming the entire planet has the distribution of America. China and India and piss off with their Elliot Fongs and Pooman Loojabi whatever, White people can't comprehend that.
So Lucas, let's say he has 500,000 active followers, I know, he barely has 500. We have 15680 Ben Collins worldwide, giving a success chance of that divided by 8 billion, or 1.96*10^-6.
Basically, the chance of one Ben Collins matched with any other is the number above. The chance of one Ben Collins matched with another in a population of 500,000? Lol
But, the chance of another Ben Collins also being a tranny? We must multiply that by 1%. So it's 1.96*10^-8. If we multiply that number by half a million, the result is feasible, there's 49 in 5000 of a chance.
But this is working on the assumption that everyone on the planet has English names. Feel free to do the same calculations with 8 billion, having China and India, most of Africa and so on removed, lol. The more precision you add, the less feasible.
Debunked: source, Lucas himself.
Independent journalism, guys. Believe him because he's never lied about anything ever.
My opinion?
I'm not buying it, it's the same person.
I'll draft up better numbers when I'm bothered. I can even calculate the chance of having 2 Ben Collins but I can't be bothered right now.