- Joined
- Dec 16, 2019
Cities skylines is actually really instructive for this, amazingly enough. There are mods that let you click on a highway or bus route or train or whatever and see every single trip through that point. And sure, you can quickly identify 10-20% of the traffic as “neighborhood X to location Y” but you also see how much it sprawls everywhere.@LaxerBRO It does exist, but there are a number of flaws and other considerations to take into account. For example, in almost every instance since the studies were made, the population grew, so it's natural that infrastructure expands with it. But that same growth isn't because of the highways; otherwise cities in recession and declining population could build their way out of recession, and of course, there is a natural limit. There is diminishing returns the more lanes and highways, sure, but infinite lanes don't have infinite cars.
There's also logical fallacies that lanes could be 1:1 replaced with trains or that reducing lanes could reduce load on the highway without negatively impacting the entire system (or would encourage mass transit use). Trains don't always work because it assumes where cars are going. Part of their worldview is extremely simplified in that traffic only moves to work and home and back, with a "third place" as a random variable.
But if you look at something like the Katy Freeway, commonly cited as "induced demand", where IS everybody going? It's part of a huge network that links Southern California to Florida and is extremely important for truck traffic. Toward the west it goes to San Antonio and with State Highways 71 and 130 plugged directly into it, it provides access to Austin as well.
On the local side, there's restaurants and stores along it that make up the evening traffic (and having a car means a much greater access to restaurants you can just walk to), as well as a huge IKEA, which is an attraction that brings out-of-towners as well. Finally, trains don't and never have operated to a full extent 24/7, and freeways do. Despite the bloodbath in 24/7 operations convenience stores and drive-throughs still generally operate.
All that requires a heavy-duty freeway. And yet, even if you were to argue that a freeway shouldn't serve local traffic, all those hotels and restaurants and stores can't really go onto avenues because the same people that complain about induced demand also complain about avenues ("stroads") as well.
Public transit works better when you either have a single source or destination for traffic. Roads work better when it’s all decentralized.