War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article
 
Alexanded Buzakov has died, Russian General Director of Admiralty Shipyards responsible for building modern non-nuclear submarines, ships including Kalibr carriers, and deep-water drones.

Newsweek Article
Alexander Buzakov, the 66-year-old Director General of the Admiralty Shipyards for the United Shipbuilding Company, died on Saturday. No cause of death has yet been reported for the wealthy businessman, with a report from the Russian state-run news agency TASS saying that his passing was "untimely" and tragic. "The United Shipbuilding Corporation, the Admiralty Shipyards, and the entire national shipbuilding industry have suffered an irreparable loss, as Alexander Sergeevich Buzakov, Director General of the Admiralty Shipyards, passed away at the age of 66," United Shipbuilding wrote in a statement. "He shouldered responsibility for the most complex orders and dealt well with each of them with dignity, thus earning a great reputation both in the industry and with the county's leadership."

Edit: Russian incendiary attack on Maryinka yesterday


Steam locomotives working near Kyiv.
 
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Adam Something (better known in the r/f**kcars thread) weighs in on the war situation. He seems to think the Ukrainians will attack in Zaporizhia, though this is based on the idea that 1. to attack in Kherson would need them to cross the Dnipro (fair enough); and 2. The Donbass is too heavily fortified (but the ruzzians have had 8 months to build their bunkers in Zaporizhia???).
 
Volodymyr Yezhov, one of the S.T.A.L.K.E.R. game devs has died in battle.
Fk0daE2WYAIs2H6.jpeg
 
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Ukraine war: Drone attack on Russian bomber base leaves three dead

A Ukrainian drone attack on an airbase for bombers in southern Russia has left three people dead, Moscow says.

Air defences shot down the drone near the Engels base, but falling debris fatally wounded three technical staff, the defence ministry said.

Earlier this month, Russia accused Ukraine of a similar attack on the airfield, home to bombers that have carried out missile attacks on Ukraine.

The base lies about 650km (400 miles) north-east of Ukraine's border.

The Ukrainian military did not officially admit to the latest attack, but air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat said the explosions were the result of what Russia was doing on Ukrainian soil.

Hours afterwards Russia's FSB security service announced it had killed a four-strong "sabotage group" trying to enter the Russian border region of Bryansk from Ukraine armed with improvised explosive devices and German-made submachine guns. The FSB released video of what it said was the "liquidation" of the group, although there is no independent confirmation of the incident.

The latest drone attack inside Russia will come as an embarrassment to Russian authorities, coming so soon after the two 5 December attacks hundreds of kilometres from the front line - both at the Engels base and in the Ryazan region. At the time Russia also blamed falling debris for the deaths of three servicemen and what it described as light damage to two aircraft.

Social media early on Monday posted videos of blasts and air sirens in the vicinity of Engels airfield.

Russia's defence ministry said later that its air defences had shot down the drone flying at low altitude at about 01:35 on Monday (22:35 GMT Sunday).

Saratov governor Roman Busargin expressed his condolences to the men's families and friends, and said there was "absolutely no threat to residents" in the town of Engels itself.

The Ukrainian air force spokesman said satellite imagery of the airfield would soon reveal the full damage from Monday's attack, adding that earlier blasts had damaged aircraft at the base.

The Engels air base has been repeatedly used by Russia to carry out missile strikes on various targets in Ukraine since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February.

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of attacking its territory before, but the latest incidents have taken place far deeper in Russian territory.

After the 5 December attacks, there were widespread calls for tightened security around Russian military installations and the latest attack suggests that has not happened.

Separately on Monday, Ukraine's foreign ministry demanded Russia's removal as one of five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and called for its exclusion from the UN "as a whole".

There is currently no clear mechanism to replace a permanent Security Council member.

However, Ukraine argues that Russia illegally took over the old USSR seat when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. Ukraine accuses Russia of abusing the veto power given to each council member, citing examples of Moscow blocking resolutions on the Syria war and the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in Ukraine
 

They've kinda been overshadowed by the airfield strikes, but it was reported on the 23rd & 24th that a fuel dump in northern Crimea was hit by a large drone; either by a rogue Shahed or the Ukrainian version, and a logistical convoy w/ reinforcement troops was hit by HIMARS on the road to Melitopol from Sevastopol.

Edit: I have to find the links again.
 
ISW Report from the 24th:
(Archive)
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24

Click here to read the full report.

Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Madison Williams, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 24, 7 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Note: ISW and CTP will not publish a campaign assessment (or maps) tomorrow, December 25, in observance of the Christmas holiday. Coverage will resume Monday, December 26.

Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut has culminated. Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area have managed to slightly slow down the pace of the Russian advance around Bakhmut and its surrounding settlements, with one claiming that Ukrainian forces pushed back elements of the Wagner Group to positions they held days ago.[1] Ukrainian social media sources previously claimed that Ukrainian forces completely pushed Russian forces out of the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut around December 21.[2] ISW has also assessed that Russian forces made slightly fewer overall advances in the Bakhmut area in November and December combined as compared to the month of October.[3]

Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on December 24 that Russian forces currently lack the necessary stockpile of artillery munitions to support large-scale offensive operations and that sustaining defensive operations along the lengthy frontline in Ukraine requires the Russian military to expend a significant number of shells and rockets daily.[4] The Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force released an interview on December 24 with a Ukrainian servicemember in the Bakhmut area detailing that Russian forces have been conducting an extremely high pace of assaults on Ukrainian positions in the area with little corresponding progress.[5] The Wagner Group’s reported heavy losses in the Bakhmut area in recent weeks have also likely strained Russian forces’ current operational capabilities in the area.[6]

The Russian military’s personnel and munitions constraints will likely prevent it from maintaining the current high pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area in the near-term. Russian forces previously allocated significant resources in a meat-grinder effort to seize Severodonesk and Lysychansk in spring–summer 2022. Russian forces culminated after capturing Lysychansk in early July and failed to capture neighboring Siversk to the east or Slovyansk to the northeast. The Russian military’s fixation with conducting a highly attritional campaign to achieve the tactical objectives of capturing Severdonetsk and Lysychansk ultimately undermined the Russian military’s ability to achieve its larger operational objective to envelop Ukrainian forces in a cauldron along the E40 highway and eventually drive to Donetsk Oblast’s western administrative borders. Russia’s relentless and costly push on Bakhmut may also degrade Russia’s ability to pursue long-term objectives in the Donbas theater.

Russian siloviki may be setting information conditions to justify the nationalization of oligarchs' resources to sponsor Russia’s war effort. Wagner financier Yeveniy Prigozhin attended the funeral of a deceased Wagner Group mercenary in St. Petersburg on December 24, where he stated that Russia needs to confiscate luxury possessions and accommodations from elites who ignore or do not support the war effort out of fear of losing their privileged lifestyles.[7] Prigozhin added that these affluent individuals support a vision where ”Western curators” dominate Russia in return for the sponsorship of their lifestyles and compared today’s Russian oligarchy to Ukraine’s or to 1990s Russia. Prigozhin ignited a scandal regarding the burial of the Wagner serviceman in recent weeks to push his political objectives — such as the legalization of Wagner in Russia — and his statements advocating redistribution of wealth at the funeral gained significant traction on the Russian internet.[8] Wagner-affiliated milbloggers widely supported Prigozhin’s criticism of Russian officials and praised his support for the war effort.[9] Prigozhin may be using such populist proposals to elevate his authority in Russian society or influence a return of stricter nationalization measures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also indirectly attacked Russian oligarchs on December 22, however, stating that Russians who drain Russia’s money from abroad and do not have a connection with the country “represent a danger” to Russia.[10] Putin claimed that while the vast majority of Russian businessmen are patriots, there are some who do not share the sentiment. Putin concluded that "everyone strives not only to stay, to live and work in Russia but to work for the benefit of our country.” Putin previously nationalized big businesses in the early 2000s to consolidate his authoritarian kleptocracy and may be attempting leverage nationalization to coerce elites to support his war in Ukraine or seize their property to fund military expenses.[11]

Ukrainian intelligence continues to suggest that the Russian military is not following proper command structures or procedures. Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated that Prigozhin formed an alliance with the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin.[12] Budanov noted that both Prigozhin and Surovikin are rivals of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, and that Prigozhin used the alliance to his advantage to receive heavy weapons from Russian Armed Forces for Wagner forces. The allocation of military resources should in principle rest with the Minister of Defense rather than the theater commander, although Surovikin could have the authority to make transfers once equipment enters the theater. The Prigozhin–Surovikin alliance is plausible given that Prigozhin had previously praised Surovikin for his efforts to save the collapsing Soviet Union.[13]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause.
  • Russian siloviki may be setting information conditions to justify the nationalization of oligarchs' resources to sponsor Russia’s war effort.
  • Ukrainian intelligence continues to suggest that the Russian military is not following proper command structures or procedures.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Kreminna-Svatove line.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • Russian SPETSNAZ are likely reconnoitering the Dnipro River delta to study Ukrainian defenses in right bank Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces struck a residential area of Kherson City with a Grad multiple launch rocket system, killing at least 10 and injuring 55.
  • The Russian Orthodox Church — a Kremlin-affiliated institution — asked the Kremlin for a mobilization exemption for its clergy, despite avidly supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
  • Russian officials are planning to take children from Horlivka, Donetsk to Belarus, possibly as a scheme to deport Ukrainian children.
  • ISW introduced a new section in the update to track daily observed indicators and counter-indicators consistent with the current assessed most dangerous course of action – a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus.
The fight for Bahkmut has been raging since August, and shows little signs of falling.
But surely, this is all part of the plan...
 
$50 says the commander will be the only casualty in a very stealthy Ukrainian night raid, killed in his sleeping bag by a grenade...
The person filming the proceedings on his phone probably started hyperventilating towards the end of the video because he doesn't want to get fragged alongside his boss.
 
Security cam footage of Engels airbase blast yesterday:


Russians using sacks of ammonium nitrate for sandbags:
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Mr. Showtime narrates:
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Magyar is the commander of a drone unit; some of his team's earlier work:

 
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Article (Archive )

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday that his country wants to hold a peace summit at the United Nations by the end of February but that Russia should first face a war crimes tribunal in an international court.

"Every war ends in a diplomatic way. Every war ends as a result of the actions taken on the battlefield and at the negotiating table," Kuleba told the Associated Press on Monday.

"The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit because this is not about making a favor to a certain country."

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres could serve as the mediator at a potential peace summit, Kuleba said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy laid out a 10-point peace plan at the G20 summit last month, including the release of all prisoners of war, the withdrawal of Russian forces and cessation of hostilities, nuclear safety and the "establishment of the Special Tribunal regarding the crime of Russia’s aggression."

Kuleba said Monday that Russia "can only be invited to this step in this way," referring to a war crimes tribunal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in an interview with state television on Sunday that Moscow wants to negotiate but Kyiv has refused peace talks.

"We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them. We are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are," Putin said in the interview.

Zelenskyy tweeted on Monday that he discussed the "peace formula" with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has sought to establish a stronger partnership with Russia in recent months.

The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, which was established by the United Nations Human Rights Council, concluded in October that an "array of war crimes, violations of human rights and international humanitarian law have been committed in Ukraine."

The commission determined that Russian forces are responsible for a "vast majority" of the violations but that Ukrainian troops "have also committed international humanitarian law violations in some cases."
 
Security cam footage of Engels airbase blast yesterday:
View attachment 4152087
It might just be lighting, but that explosion looks way to big for it to be a "successful intercept no direct hit" like the Russians are claiming.
I cant even explain this one...
Like using S-300 as a ground attack missile or pulling old T-62s out of storage I can understand due to the ammo & supply issues, but why not just use actual fuckin sand? Like its sand.
Just digging in the dirt or pulling nearby gravel and shoving it into a bag is better than using chemical fertilizer as a sandbag...

Although this report might be dubious. Those plants in the one picture are still green, meaning the picture wasn't taken recently.
 
Just further noise and showmanship by the Ukrainians to paint themselves in a peace-loving, innocent light, keep the aid (read: weapons) flowing, and potentially peel off some of Russia's tacit support. Even without the war crimes stunt withdrawal of Russian forces is a nonstarter since Zelensky includes Crimea under that umbrella.
 
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