War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Zelenskyy's New Year's address:

What will 2023 bring?

The winter so far is reportedly mild, and "wet cold" slows mechanized warfare and may give Russia some of the operational pause it needs to regroup. I doubt it's enough to bring them anything resembling victory, but it could prolong the misery.

I've seen several reports (example: ISW) suggesting another wave of Russian mobilization is only a few days away (Jan 5?) with more thorough conscription. Putin may close the borders this time so there's no escaping for young men. Or middle-aged men. The Russian economy will suffer even worse with all these people taken out of the workforce and turned into cannon fodder to reveal a few artillery positions.

The three rough areas Ukraine might push are (1) the right bank of the Dnipro with some kind of bridgehead (I haven't heard much about the Kinburn Spit operation so I assume they haven't made headway), (2) towards Tokmak and maybe Melitopol if defenses prove weak, and (3) northern Luhansk starting with retaking Svatove and Kreminna. Only they know which they're going for. Only time will tell the outcome.

There's also a chance Russia takes some territory back, though I don't see where or how. Their progress in Bakhmut, despite several months of concerted effort, can be measured in yards.

Best case, the Russian army simply collapses from morale and logistical failures, and facing reality they have to give up. Then this senseless death and destruction can end. Putin will have to find a way to blame someone else, or, better yet, find his way out of a window.
 
Prigozhin visits with his caterers for New Year's, meets some with expired contracts.

Screenshot_20230101-122100.png
 
Regarding your numbers, Ukraine claims it injured 700 people (400 killed, 300 injured) which I doubt.

https://greekreporter.com/2023/01/0...led-400-russian-soldiers-in-a-missile-strike/

Ukraine Claims 400 Russian Soldiers Killed by Missile Strike​

Ukraine says it has killed around 400 Russian soldiers in a missile attack on the occupied Donetsk region just after midnight on New Year’s Day.

The missile targeted a building in the city of Makiivka, where Russian forces were thought to be stationed.

The figure has not been verified. Pro-Russian authorities acknowledged casualties but did not confirm the figures being reported.

Donetsk has been held by Russian-backed separatists since 2014 and it is one of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow attempted to annex in October, in violation of international law.

Fatalities among Russian soldiers less than Ukraine claims​

Daniil Bezsonov, a senior Russian-backed official in the occupied parts of Donetsk, said the missile struck Makiivka two minutes after midnight on New Year’s Day.

“A massive blow was dealt to the vocational school from American MLRS Himars,” he said, referring to US-provided missiles.

“There were dead and wounded, the exact number is still unknown,” Bezsonov added in a post on the messaging app Telegram.

According to the Ukrainian military, 300 people were wounded in addition to the estimated 400 killed.

The Russian-installed administration said at least 25 rockets were fired at the region overnight on New Year’s Eve.

Russia attacks Kyiv in Ukraine​

Hours after the strike in Makiivka, Kyiv came under fire. A drone and missile attack targeted critical infrastructure, the Ukrainian capital’s regional governor Oleksiy Kuleba said.

One man in Kyiv was injured by debris from a destroyed Russian drone, the capital’s mayor added.

It came after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky wished for victory and a “return to normal” for Ukraine in 2023.

He used his first address of the year to underline the “sense of unity” in the country, and contrast it with the “fear” he said is felt in Russia.

“Our sense of unity, authenticity, life itself – all this contrasts dramatically with the fear that prevails in Russia,” said Zelensky in an address published Sunday evening local time.

“They are afraid. You can feel it. And they are right to be afraid. Because they are losing. Drones, missiles, anything else will not help them. Because we are together. And they are together only with fear.”

In a new year address on Russian TV, President Vladimir Putin said Russia would fight to protect its sovereignty and independence.
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/7sBgJ
TASS claims one dead and five injured (unrealistic)
https://tass.com/russia/1558427

DPR head: stronger Ukrainian shellings during New Year holidays well-expected​

Since 2014 it has been their cynical practice, the DPR’s acting head Denis Pushilin said
An upsurge in shellings of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) during the New Year holidays was expected, the DPR’s acting head Denis Pushilin told TASS on Sunday.

"We had expected that the Ukrainian regime would intensify bombardments on New Year's Eve. Since 2014 it has been their cynical practice to terrorize civilians on the days of important holidays," he said.

Earlier in the day the Ukrainian artillery shelled Donetsk, Yasinovataya, Makeyevka, Gorlovka and other communities.

One civilian was reported dead and five others injured as a result of these attacks. In Donetsk, the areas of an indoor bazaar and the Donbass Arena stadium came under fire. The city’s mayor, Alexey Kulemzin also reported destruction in the areas of Studgorodok, Pushkin Boulevard and Artyom, Postyshev and Gorky streets. A direct hit was recorded on the Republican Art Museum, Donetsk Technical School of Industrial Automation and on other civilian institutions. Kulemzin stressed that on New Year's Night the Ukrainian forces shelled Donetsk with special frenzy. In Makeyevka, the building of the local Children's and Youth’s Creativity Center, a shop and a private household were damaged.

https://tass.com/russia/1558427
South Asia cites Tass report, which I cannot find anywhere, stating that 63 people were killed (a lot more realistic)
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/e...by-ukrainian-strike-in-donetsk20230102202125/
Moscow claims 63 Russian soldiers killed by Ukrainian strike in Donetsk

Amid the ongoing conflict, the Russian Defence Ministry today said that 63 soldiers of Russia have been killed due to Ukraine's strike through US-manufactured HIMARS, TASS reported. Speaking to reporters, the Russian Defence Ministry said that Ukrainian forces hit six rockets of HIMARS at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of Russian armed forces in Makiivka region of Donetsk.

"The Kyiv regime struck with six rockets of the US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system at the temporary deployment point of one of the units of the Russian armed forces in the area of the settlement of Makeevka in the Donetsk People's Republic," TASS quoted the Russian Defence Ministry as saying.

"As a result of the destruction of four missiles with a high-explosive warhead of the temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed," it further said.

The Russian Defence Ministry said that the air defence systems of Russia shot down two HIMARS rockets, according to TASS. In its daily report on the situation in Ukraine released on the website, the Russian Defence Ministry said that its air defence facilities shot down 15 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Shipilovka, Liman, Kremennaya, Ploshchanka, Chervonaya Dibrova, Petrovskoye, Novognatovka, Nikolayevka, Skelki, Ocheretovatoye, Rubanovka and Lopatki.

Furthermore, the Russian Defence Ministry in its statement said that Moscow intercepted three rocket-propelled projectiles launched by Olkha and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) near Krasnaya Gora, Podgornoye and Radensk.

Meanwhile, Ukraine on Monday claimed that five people were injured due to Russian shelling in the city market of Beryslav, CNN reported citing the regional governor. Kherson Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych said that three people among the five injured are in critical condition.

"This morning Russians attacked the center of Beryslav - they shelled the city market," CNN quoted Yaroslav Yanushevych as saying on his Telegram channel.

"Presumably, the fire was conducted from a tank from the temporarily occupied Kakhovka," he added. (ANI)


Edit: Thanks to @Spud Stacker :

Dozens dead in Ukrainian strike on Russian troops – Moscow

The deadly attack took place in the city of Makeyevka in Donetsk People’s Republic, the Defense Ministry says

More than 60 Russian troops have been killed by a Ukrainian missile strike, Moscow confirmed on Monday. The bombardment hit a temporary housing area used by the Russian forces in Donbass.

The facility in the city of Makeyevka in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic was targeted by six missiles from US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Defense ministry said. Two projectiles were intercepted by air defenses, but four made it through, the statement added.

"As a result of a strike by four missiles with high-explosive warheads on a temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed,” Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing.

All necessary assistance and support will be provided to the families of the fallen troops, the ministry assured.

The strike was earlier reported by the Donetsk People’s Republic’s Information Minister Daniil Bezsonov, who said the missiles targeted the building of a vocational school where the troops were stationed. It happened precisely at 0:01 am on New Year’s night, while the serviceman were celebrating, he added.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry earlier condemned Washington for not only supplying sophisticated weapons to Kiev, but also providing the Ukrainian military with intelligence about the location of the Russian forces.

 
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Exiled Moscow chief rabbi: Jews should leave Russia before they are scapegoated
Amid rising antisemitism, Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt warns that historical precedent indicates Jewish community will be blamed for country’s problems

Moscow’s exiled former chief rabbi, Pinchas Goldschmidt, has warned Russian Jews that they may become scapegoats for hardships brought on by Moscow’s sputtering war in Ukraine, and encouraged them to leave the country.

In an interview with Britain’s The Guardian, Goldschmidt said there was historical precedent that shows the Jewish community could end up being blamed.

“When we look back over Russian history, whenever the political system was in danger you saw the government trying to redirect the anger and discontent of the masses towards the Jewish community,” he said. “We saw this in tsarist times and at the end of the Stalinist regime.”

“We’re seeing rising antisemitism while Russia is going back to a new kind of Soviet Union, and step by step the iron curtain is coming down again. This is why I believe the best option for Russian Jews is to leave,” he said.

Goldschmidt resigned from his position and left Moscow in July.

“Pressure was put on community leaders to support the war, and I refused to do so. I resigned because to continue as chief rabbi of Moscow would be a problem for the community because of the repressive measures taken against dissidents,” he said.

Last October, Goldschmidt encouraged Russian Jews to flee the country after a Moscow official labeled the Chabad Hasidic sect a supremacist cult. Since July, Russia and Israel have been engaged in a legal dispute over Moscow’s attempts to shutter the Russian branch of the Jewish Agency, a quasi-governmental organization that promotes immigration of Jews to Israel.

According to the Swiss-born Goldschmidt, since the beginning of the invasion in March 2022, 25 to 30 percent of Jews in Russia have left or are planning to leave.

Today, Russia’s Jewish population numbers about 165,000 out of a total population of 145 million.

Turning his attention to Europe, the exiled rabbi cited a recent conference in Athens, which saw mayors of 53 cities from 23 countries convene in early December to discuss combating the worldwide rise of antisemitism.

“We have to stop those forces that are trying to destroy Europe from within,” Goldschmidt said. “In the beginning, when there were attacks on Jewish schools like the one in Toulouse, people thought it was a Jewish problem.

“But after Charlie Hebdo, the attack in Nice and at the Christmas market in Berlin, Europe understood it was a European problem, not a Jewish problem. That’s what these mayors have to understand,” he said.


 
Kiev says 400 killed.
Moscow says 63 killed.
Real number is probably in the ballpark of 150-250 including DPR proxies and Wagner mercs.
I wouldn't be so sure, by the looks of it the targeted building housed a freshly formed unit of mobiks specifically.

The facility in the city of Makeyevka in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic was targeted by six missiles from US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Defense ministry said. Two projectiles were intercepted by air defenses, but four made it through, the statement added.
I find this rather amusing. Have we ever heard before about HIMARS missiles being intercepted, even though Russian air defense became infamous for failing to do exactly that? It's possible they're lying out of their to make it look like they tried.
 
I find this rather amusing. Have we ever heard before about HIMARS missiles being intercepted
They claimed to have, on a number of occasions. They probably do intercept missiles now and then but it's certainly not as often as they boast.
Kiev says 400 killed.
Moscow says 63 killed.
Real number is probably in the ballpark of 150-250 including DPR proxies and Wagner mercs.
Likely something like "63 dead, 200 missing".
 
If I had to make a bloody wager: 63 Russian Army personnel killed, 200 Wagner PMC personnel (not included in the "63 killed") killed, and some number wounded
There’s also the draftees/volunteers from Ukraine that wouldn’t count as Russian Army personnel.
 
ISW from yesterday:
(https://archive.ph/N1598)
Big takeaway is that Russia seems to be moving troops into Luhansk Oblast in the north.

Did enjoy this tidbit:
Russian occupation authorities officially banned the use of the Ukrainian hryvnia (Ukraine’s national currency) on January 1 and announced that all transactions throughout occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts must be tendered in the Russian ruble.[80] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on January 2 that Ukrainians in occupied territories are largely ignoring this ban against the hryvnia.[81]
Even if Ukraine folds tomorrow, Russia is about to have a long hard insurgency for the next few decades in whatever regions it decides to annex...

Telegram claims of Ukrainian forces in the Dnipro islands between Kherson and the southern shore:

I wouldn't be so sure, by the looks of it the targeted building housed a freshly formed unit of mobiks specifically.
If I had to make a bloody wager: 63 Russian Army personnel killed, 200 Wagner PMC personnel (not included in the "63 killed") killed, and some number wounded
Yeah, my general rule with "Kiev said vs Moscow said" is that the truth lies somewhere in between.

I find this rather amusing. Have we ever heard before about HIMARS missiles being intercepted, even though Russian air defense became infamous for failing to do exactly that? It's possible they're lying out of their to make it look like they tried.
Yes they have, though estimates of what % get intercepted vary wildly (and though TBF the actual percentage of intercept probably varies by target).
 
However, there is no way of verifying how many soldiers were killed when US-made Himars missiles hit a vocational college packed with conscripts. Ammunition was also being stored close to the site, which was reduced to rubble.
WHAT ARE YOU EVEN DOING RUSSIA? STOP WITH THE FUCKING AMMO DUMPS.
 
I have a lot of catching up to do for the thread, but phonepoasting slows things considerably. So here's a recent field-expedient anti-drone measure that was seemingly discovered by accident, but is showing up everywhere now.
RDT_20230103_1511017276138131915399400.png

The Russians are trying to use netting as well, but it looks like they're limited to loot from athletic fields, scraps of camo or sunshade netting, old rotten tarps, etc etc; instead of the heftier stuff seen being used here.
RDT_20230103_1510584684856367669080536.png

I've also noticed that the transition from field-expedient to official adoption & issue by Ukraine has become very quick. Even considering Ukraine's losses of very smart men, braindrain is definitely not going to be an issue; unlike for Russia, who started with a cultural deficit anyways. Being able to tap into the entire free world for ideas & designs doesn't hurt either, and definitely accounts for how quickly Ukraine has pioneered & adapted to fighting in a type of war that's never been seen before.

It's struck me that we've been watching an entire culture changing back into something that also hasn't been a thing for centuries, a true & honest warrior-culture; not a caricature of one like the Russians or Norks, an anachronistic remnant or in-name-only from darkest Africa or India (i.e. askaris, Gurkhas & Sikhs), or the mandatory mass-produced Chicom version.
 
They must have a game designer in charge of logistics, how else would you explain weakpoints being so conveniently placed?
"You see Ivan, if we place ammo dump near mobiks, mobiks can get ammo immediately!"
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And now for some actual news:
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https://twitter.com/DarthLavrov/status/1609902168135417857
Reality hit Russia hard as always and that presidential decree was amended last friday, without much media fanfare. Gas supply contracts can now be paid in the currency specified in the contract (euros, dollars). The ruble continues to go down the toilet and so does Russian economy 2/2
1672788181359.png1672788199591.png
 
Uncomfirmed as far as I can tell; near Kherson (possibly Makyivka), a civilian family's torture was recorded to their own Telegram by Russians.

Screenshot_20230103-225416.png

Edit: I imagine this sort of thing could be performed by Ukrainian black-propagandists, and earlier in the war I would've been highly skeptical that it's a true & honest snuff recording. But now... not so much.

Even if this particular call is fake, at the current state of war there's still enough convincing evidence that the Russians have long been doing the real deal; that their use of torture has become universal, and any prior restraint exercised through Russian commands has long since evaporated.
 
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Makiivka: Russia blames missile attack on soldiers' mobile phone use

Russia has said a new year missile attack that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers happened because troops were using mobile phones, defying a ban.

Turning on the phones and massive use of them allowed the enemy to locate its target, officials said.

Ukraine says 400 soldiers were killed - and another 300 wounded - in the attack on a college for conscripts in Makiivka, in the occupied Donetsk area.

It is the largest number of deaths Russia has acknowledged in the war.

Russia said that at 00:01 Moscow time on New Year's Day, six rockets were fired from a US-made Himars rocket system at a vocational college, two of which were shot down. Moments earlier President Vladimir Putin had given his annual new year address on Russian TV.

The deputy commander of the regiment, Lt Col Bachurin, was among those killed, the ministry of defence said in a statement on Wednesday. A commission was investigating the circumstances of the incident, the statement said.

But it was "already obvious" that the main cause of the attack was the use of mobile phones by troops in range of Ukrainian weapons, despite this being banned, it added.

"This factor allowed the enemy to locate and determine the co-ordinates of the location of military personnel for a missile strike."

Lt Gen Sergei Sevryukov said officials found responsible by the investigation would be brought to justice and "all the necessary measures are currently being adopted to prevent this kind of tragic incident in the future".

The defence ministry's statement was striking for two reasons.

The military's official death toll is now 89. The previous figure of 63 dead already represented the highest single loss of life Moscow had admitted since the war began. The real death toll in Makiivka could be much higher, as is claimed by both Ukraine and by unofficial Russian sources.

Second, the statement said that "responsible officials" would be brought to justice, suggesting that something went wrong. This is highly unusual behaviour for Moscow - very rarely do authorities admit that errors have been made.

The vocational college was packed with soldiers at the time - men believed to have been among the 300,000 called up in President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilisation in September. Ammunition was also being stored close to the site, which was reduced to rubble.

The head of Russia's proxy authority in the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, praised the heroism of those caught up in the missile strike, who he said had tried to pull comrades out of the building. Some of those returning to the building had died in the process, he added.

With such a high official death toll, one would think the Russian military's latest update on the horrific events in Makiivka would be the top story on Russian state TV news today.

Not so. There was almost no mention of the story on Rossiya-24's main bulletins this morning.

Over on Channel One, the main news programme did briefly mention the defence ministry statement, but chose to bury it at the end of a report about alleged victories on the front line and losses amongst Ukrainian, not Russian, forces.

"A whole series of Russian missile attacks was unleashed on the first days of the new year against Ukrainian nationalists and foreign accomplices of the Kyiv regime," said the Channel One correspondent triumphantly, using common false narratives to describe Ukrainian forces.

But if you switch off the TV and log on to vKontakte, Russia's version of Facebook, you get a very different picture.

Communities have sprung up where soldiers' relatives are organising, appealing for information and crowdfunding for troops on the front line. Here there is anger.

Many relatives of the Makiivka soldiers blame military officials for the incident, and are sceptical of reports that those guilty will be punished. Some question why Kremlin-controlled media are largely silent on the story. However, there is little direct criticism of President Putin or of the war in general.

Pavel Gubarev, a former leading official in Russia's proxy authority in Donetsk, said the decision to house a large number of soldiers in one building was "criminal negligence". "If no-one is punished for this, then it will only get worse," he warned.

The deputy speaker of Moscow's local parliament, Andrei Medvedev, said it was predictable that the soldiers would be blamed rather than the commander who made the original decision to put so many of them in one place.

The defence ministry's claim that military officials who were allegedly responsible for this disaster will be punished will be seen as an attempt to defuse public anger over the disaster in Makiivka, but also to place the blame firmly on the military, and not President Putin. He has yet to respond to the disaster so far,

Throughout this war, the Kremlin has been careful to distance Russia's president from any bad news coming from the front line.

In November, Russia withdrew from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, a major strategic defeat for Moscow. The announcement to retreat, though, was made by Gen Sergei Surovikin, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. President Putin was meanwhile pictured touring a neurological facility, and did not make any comment on the situation in Kherson.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Tuesday night that Moscow was "on the eve of new mobilisation processes".

Declaring that "their new offensive must fail", Mr Zelensky said Ukraine had no doubt Russia would throw everything they had left and everyone they could muster in a bid to turn the tide of the war.
 
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