Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread - Episode III - Revenge of the Ruski (now unlocked with new skins and gameplay modes!!!)

[Ghostse]

Wagner has been "in" Soledar the same way they have been "in" bakhmut for the past 8 weeks. The little zerglings run foreword across no man's land, take selfies for telegram and then either die or retreat. Further more, just a cursory glance at the map shows this insane push for that village as the desperation ploy it is. Soledar, strategically is not important. Even if it was fully occupied it means absolutely nothing for the ongoing fighting in Bakhmut because the M-3 does not pass through Soledar. It passes through Krasna Hora south of Soledar.

This is clearly an effort by Wagner to take SOMETHING even if that Something is even more useless then Bakhmut. Maybe they think they will be able to turn south from a breach at Soledar and turn the Ukrainian left flank. Which is wishful thinking at best. I don't see this push actually amounting to much more then hundreds more dead Russians. I bet big money what gains have been made have been due to Ukraine not expecting Russia to commit to a major offensive on a strategically unimportant map dot that even if they took would accomplish fuck all. Its a common mistake to make in a war where Politicians looking for "muh optics" give orders to field commanders.

That mostly neutral guy in the video laid out a pretty good reasons for taking Soledar. Ukrainian forces there and in Bakhmut propper have been getting hit hard, and any ground gained is more momentum than Russia has had since April. Additionally, while every time this happens the Ukrainians kick the Russias back, unless they are killing 10 for every ukrainian lost, the attrition numbers aren't on their side.

But you're very solidly correct: Wagner were in Bakhmut long enough and hard enough after the counter-counter attack that LiveUA had the suburbs red. They are not there anymore.

This why I think any Vatniks getting ready to celebrate their 1-year anniversary of "Bakhmut falls next week" are counting their chickens before they hatch, but I'm holding judgement until we see how it shakes out - maybe this the time they actually do it.

 

[mindlessobserver]

That mostly neutral guy in the video laid out a pretty good reasons for taking Soledar. Ukrainian forces there and in Bakhmut propper have been getting hit hard, and any ground gained is more momentum than Russia has had since April. Additionally, while every time this happens the Ukrainians kick the Russias back, unless they are killing 10 for every ukrainian lost, the attrition numbers aren't on their side.

But you're very solidly correct: Wagner were in Bakhmut long enough and hard enough after the counter-counter attack that LiveUA had the suburbs red. They are not there anymore.

This why I think any Vatniks getting ready to celebrate their 1-year anniversary of "Bakhmut falls next week" are counting their chickens before they hatch, but I'm holding judgement until we see how it shakes out - maybe this the time they actually do it.

The "neutral" guy has rose tinted glasses on. I bet big Money the only forces around Soledar when this particular fight broke out were Territorial Guards. Of course Russia made gains. The problem becomes gains to what, and for what. Even the Russian Maps are showing the Russian Army failed to penetrate the center of the town after the Ukrainian Defenders retreated into it and are instead trying to surround it and pound it to rubble from range.

Which is retarded. Keep in mind Ukraine has kept substantial formations in reserve around Bakhmut in case Russia makes a major breach on that line, as well as to just rotate exhausted front line forces out. Its Childs play to divert those forces North. More importantly, Soledars only utility is that it sits astride the spur rail line to the Bakhmutske industrial area. That is IT. There are no major highways or railways in Soledar. If the entire town fell, nothing, absolutely nothing would change with regards to Bakhmut. That is why only Territorial Guards were stationed there after all.

Vatniggers held Soledar for less than 24 hours.

Bakhmut shouldn’t be important, but is is a great place to kill vatniggers.

Utterly unimportant towns tends to become very important solely because of this reason. The most famous example in US History is the Battle of Gettysburg. The town was utterly unimportant. Neither side needed to take or hold it. The just decided to engage in the most deadly battle in American history solely because, in the words of General Lee "The enemy is here".

 

[AgendaPoster]

aaaaaaaaaaand right on cue, here comes the (predictable) cope.
Ok sweetheart, if Soledar (and Bakhmut) are not important, then why have the hohols been throwing man after man into a meatginder defending something that's not important? They just hate their own countrymen?

Every piece of land is important, and in a war you lose some battles and win some, lose some land and take other.
I fail to understand what part of this is too hard to understand. Vatniks have lost thousands too, congrats. Just keep the killing going, it's surely worth it.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Soledar, strategically is not important.

The "neutral" guy has rose tinted glasses on. I bet big Money the only forces around Soledar when this particular fight broke out were Territorial Guards.

"Soledar, strategically is not important."

Z-man: "To the last hohol"

aaaaaaaaaaand right on cue, here comes the (predictable) cope.
Ok sweetheart, if Soledar (and Bakhmut) are not important, then why have the hohols been throwing man after man into a meatginder defending something that's not important? They just hate their own countrymen?

Precisely. But remember. the new Tank Destroyers are going to do Thunder Runs and be in Red Square in about...two weeks.

 

[Fatniggo1488]

That mostly neutral guy in the video laid out a pretty good reasons for taking Soledar. Ukrainian forces there and in Bakhmut propper have been getting hit hard, and any ground gained is more momentum than Russia has had since April. Additionally, while every time this happens the Ukrainians kick the Russias back, unless they are killing 10 for every ukrainian lost, the attrition numbers aren't on their side.

But you're very solidly correct: Wagner were in Bakhmut long enough and hard enough after the counter-counter attack that LiveUA had the suburbs red. They are not there anymore.

This why I think any Vatniks getting ready to celebrate their 1-year anniversary of "Bakhmut falls next week" are counting their chickens before they hatch, but I'm holding judgement until we see how it shakes out - maybe this the time they actually do it.

>unless they are killing 10 for every ukrainian lost, the attrition numbers aren't on their side.
lol I'm going to go out on a limb and say the "K/D ratio" is probably pretty close on both sides. Ultimately, Ukraine refuses to even so much as hint at their loses, and are now trying to conscript people who've fled the country with the help of the countries they're in. Just by pure brutally honest war math, the casualty ratios are likely increasingly favoring the Russians. This is because the Ukrainian force composition should be steadily declining in overall training quality since you're introducing more and more untrained, or minimally trained conscripts into the fighting pool whereas Russians are mostly replacing loses with at least semi trained reserves, and what sounds like a "back door draft" similar to what the US did during the Afghan surge.

On the matter of momentum, I don't really think Russia is concerned about taking any more territory and I suspect they'll start to draw down in other areas. I think the attack here really is just about inflicting casualties to keep Ukraine from being able to effectively launch harassing attacks like they did before the war fully kicked off. Ultimately, Russia doesn't really have a reason to hold anything outside of the territory claimed by the DPR and LPR.

Also, I think this is probably why Russians are targeting power stations. I think they want to make the war as uncomfortable as possible for Ukraine so it doesn't really have any will to attempt "re"taking the Donbass.

Edit:
To evidence what I said about just attacking to inflict casualties, I'd argue that Wagner being the ones to carry out the attack was not coincidental.

 

[mindlessobserver]

"Soledar, strategically is not important."
View attachment 4213803

Yes? I'm not entirely sure what your point is. What does the capture of Soledar do for Russia?

>unless they are killing 10 for every ukrainian lost, the attrition numbers aren't on their side.
lol I'm going to go out on a limb and say the "K/D ratio" is probably pretty close on both sides. Ultimately, Ukraine refuses to even so much as hint at their loses, and are now trying to conscript people who've fled the country with the help of the countries they're in. Just by pure brutally honest war math, the casualty ratios are likely increasingly favoring the Russians. This is because the Ukrainian force composition should be steadily declining in overall training quality since you're introducing more and more untrained, or minimally trained conscripts into the fighting pool whereas Russians are mostly replacing loses with at least semi trained reserves, and what sounds like a "back door draft" similar to what the US did during the Afghan surge.

On the matter of momentum, I don't really think Russia is concerned about taking any more territory and I suspect they'll start to draw down in other areas. I think the attack here really is just about inflicting casualties to keep Ukraine from being able to effectively launch harassing attacks like they did before the war fully kicked off. Ultimately, Russia doesn't really have a reason to hold anything outside of the territory claimed by the DPR and LPR.

Also, I think this is probably why Russians are targeting power stations. I think they want to make the war as uncomfortable as possible for Ukraine so it doesn't really have any will to attempt "re"taking the Donbass.

Edit:
To evidence what I said about just attacking to inflict casualties, I'd argue that Wagner being the ones to carry out the attack was not coincidental.

The Ukrainian Draft Push does not say what you think it says. Ukraine is working under two pressures. Pressure one is the ever present threat Russia will order a general mobilization and try and field millions of Mobiks. Pressure two is they cannot ignore the possibility that Belarus, with Russia, will make another push on Kiev. Both of these factors require Ukraine to field at least a million to two million soldiers to have a fighting chance. And to get those numbers requires arming them now before they are needed.

I've pointed this out before you know. Part of the Reason this war has lasted as long as it has is because Russia wanted a limited war and Ukraine has been fighting a Total War. All of Ukraines civil society is mobilized at this point for the singular aim of winning the war. To this day Russia has not reciprocated and the results are showing.

 

[Bartolomeow Kittensberger]

Isn't the use of Autism stickers entirely redundant in this thread? Anyway, on to the latest fair and unbiased news:



Russia's MoD reports that the Kiev Regime has viciously violated the magnanimous offer of a Ceasefire, with 50 artillery-based attacks launched by NATOkraine against Russian peacekeepers.

Nonetheless, the slow, grinding work of nation-building continues: Mariupol is being rehabilitated and returned to habitable shape for the Russian People.

Spoiler: Meanwhile, the demilitarization of the Ukraine proceeds apace:

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Yes? I'm not entirely sure what your point is. What does the capture of Soledar do for Russia?

You tell me Mr "I spent 2 years in a light Infantry Battalion" and "2 years in a Rocket Artillery Battalion" why Ukraine decided to throw in all those brigades to stop Wagner from taking it since I assume during those 2 years you learned how to read a map.

 

[Fatniggo1488]

Yes? I'm not entirely sure what your point is. What does the capture of Soledar do for Russia?


The Ukrainian Draft Push does not say what you think it says. Ukraine is working under two pressures. Pressure one is the ever present threat Russia will order a general mobilization and try and field millions of Mobiks. Pressure two is they cannot ignore the possibility that Belarus, with Russia, will make another push on Kiev. Both of these factors require Ukraine to field at least a million to two million soldiers to have a fighting chance. And to get those numbers requires arming them now before they are needed.

I've pointed this out before you know. Part of the Reason this war has lasted as long as it has is because Russia wanted a limited war and Ukraine has been fighting a Total War. All of Ukraines civil society is mobilized at this point for the singular aim of winning the war. To this day Russia has not reciprocated and the results are showing.

>All of Ukraines civil society is mobilized at this point for the singular aim of winning the war. To this day Russia has not reciprocated and the results are showing.
When Ukie coping is so strong it turns around to sound like Ruskie copeing.

 

[mindlessobserver]

You tell me Mr "I spent 2 years in a light Infantry Battalion" and "2 years in a Rocket Artillery Battalion" why Ukraine decided to throw in all those brigades to stop Wagner from taking it since I assume during those 2 years you learned how to read a map.

 

[CaptainAutism69]

you still didn't answer the question sweetheart. I mean, Ukraine must be evil beyond belief if they would throw everything into the defence of a meaningless city. Didn't you 'predict' last week that nothing would happen until spring?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Interesting but doesn't answer my question on you ability to read a map, unless you're implying Z-man fell into the sunk cost fallacy trap, which is still a retarded move on Ukraine's part.

 

[CaptainAutism69]

require Ukraine to field at least a million to two million soldiers to have a fighting chance. And to get those numbers requires arming them now before they are needed.

Where are these 1-2 million soldiers coming from? There's about 10 million fighting aged men in Ukraine, some are pro-Russian, some pulled a 'Vince' and ran away like dirty cowards to impregnate Polish women, then you have the ill, fat, whatever. How are you going to train, feed, home 10-20% of your fighting aged men? Transport them to the front? And make them fight a war they may not agree with.

https://www.populationpyramid.net/ukraine/2019/

you remind me of the cope from the Hohol general who was saying he KNEW Ukraine would win, then reeled off a list of equipment that he would need, which was larger than the tankforce of Europe.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Interesting but doesn't answer my question on you ability to read a map, unless you're implying Z-man fell into the sunk cost fallacy, which is still a retarded move on Ukraine's part.

The map you posted says it all. Let me break it down for you.

Soledar is essentially a Salient position in front of the main Ukrainian Battle Line. It sits astride the main vector of advance towards the more strategic position at Blahodatne. Its not important, only in so far as its in the way towards something that IS Important. Which is why it WAS low on the totem pole. Russia was engaged in a struggle for far more important targets. Optyne and Bakhmut. A shift to the Soledar front means an effort to shift the focus of battle. But it also means engaging Ukraine from a direction where Russia has to essentially charge across miles of open terrain to collapse the Salient and then engage the main battle line at Blahodatne.

And what is there? The map you posted spelled it out. Two BRIGADES of Infantry. One territorial guards and regular. An entire Regiment of Special Operations Forces, a Battalion of Artillery and just to the south another Brigade of Mechanized infantry and a brigade of TANKS.

Your map, that YOU posted (I assume you don't understand what any of the icons mean) basically summed up my entire theory of the battle. Russia smashed into the Brigade of Territorial Guards (They are the Rectangle with the L btw), and made some initial early successes. Now the entire Ukrainian formation in the area is turning, away from Bakhmut and towards Soledar to pound this new Russian thrust.

Worse for Russia, they are charging across the open under the guns with no cover. Its going to be a slaughter. Just like Picketts Charge at Gettysburg. This battle IS a Sunk Cost fallacy. Your own damn map shows it. There is absolutely no freaking way Wagner is breaking the defense line you yourself posted. Not without substantial back up by regular russian tank forces that are NOT PRESENT.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Soledar is such a massive shitfest when it comes to the infospace I'm taking anything and everything with a massive grain of salt.

Yesterday a lot of the Pro-Russian sources that are pretty accurate and worth looking through were saying Soledar has completely fallen, then it became the central area of Soledar, and now it seems central Soledar wasn't actually captured and is instead no man's land and a Ukrainian counterattack may or may not have been the cause of that.

 

[mindlessobserver]

If it was not obvious, General Lee is not Zaluzhney in my example. He's Prigozhin. And Soledar? Soledar is Cemetary Ridge. People will be writing about this battle for centuries. And not as a Russian Victory, but as a last desperate gamble that slaughtered thousands for nothing.

I hope that answered all the questions.

 

[102]

I love how this thread has permanently become 1-dumb-Ukie-bait post followed by 20 quotes of it for every page. Before the Keffals downtime, every highlight was breakdowns of the actual territory that's changed hands, recent videos from the front lines, analyses of the technology used by both sides, etc. I can't even remember the last drone or bodycam video I saw in this thread now.

Jannies should really return the thread to the former setup -- @mindlessobserver / @teriyakiburns etc. are banished back to posting their spam in A&N, and keep the thread focused on informative updates/analyses rather than endless sperging. Thread's a useless dumpster fire as it is right now. Here's some drone vids for a change.

Battle of Bakhmut -- Essentially all of the 2-story+ buildings in the city are rubble. Regardless of who takes it in the end, it will be impossible for any of the population to resettle. The meatgrinder continues with no clear winner, heavy losses by all.

Drones dropping grenades on AFU trenches and 2 disabled tanks. NW outside of Bakhmut.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Jannies should really return the thread to the former setup -- @mindlessobserver / @teriyakiburns etc. are banished back to posting their spam in A&N, and keep the thread focused on informative updates/analyses rather than endless sperging. Thread's a useless dumpster fire as it is right now. Here's some drone vids for a change.

Get the people with wrong opinions out of my hugbox, reeeeeeeee!

How shameful. Literally asking for Jannies, on kiwifarms, to clean up for you. When Soledar ends up in Ukrainian hands by February 1, I am going to take special pleasure in smug posting with you tagged.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The map you posted says it all. Let me break it down for you.

Soledar is essentially a Salient position in front of the main Ukrainian Battle Line. It sits astride the main vector of advance towards the more strategic position at Blahodatne. Its not important, only in so far as its in the way towards something that IS Important. Which is why it WAS low on the totem pole. Russia was engaged in a struggle for far more important targets. Optyne and Bakhmut. A shift to the Soledar front means an effort to shift the focus of battle. But it also means engaging Ukraine from a direction where Russia has to essentially charge across miles of open terrain to collapse the Salient and then engage the main battle line at Blahodatne.

And what is there? The map you posted spelled it out. Two BRIGADES of Infantry. One territorial guards and regular. An entire Regiment of Special Operations Forces, a Battalion of Artillery and just to the south another Brigade of Mechanized infantry and a brigade of TANKS.

Your map, that YOU posted (I assume you don't understand what any of the icons mean) basically summed up my entire theory of the battle. Russia smashed into the Brigade of Territorial Guards (They are the Rectangle with the L btw), and made some initial early successes. Now the entire Ukrainian formation in the area is turning, away from Bakhmut and towards Soledar to pound this new Russian thrust.

Worse for Russia, they are charging across the open under the guns with no cover. Its going to be a slaughter. Just like Picketts Charge at Gettysburg. This battle IS a Sunk Cost fallacy. Your own damn map shows it. There is absolutely no freaking way Wagner is breaking the defense line you yourself posted. Not without substantial back up by regular russian tank forces that are NOT PRESENT.

You stated Soledar was "strategically unimportant" yet you manage to explain why it is important (while still being absolutely confused):"Its not important, only in so far as its in the way towards something that IS Important."

Yes, it's important because it's fall leads to the encirclement of Bakhmut, which is a strategic and vital location as it's a supply/road hub and its capture means the collapse of Ukrainian defense lines, opening up the roads into Kiev.

This is why we don't let grunts make decisions on the ground, you all have absolutely no understanding of tactical vs strategic (@102 said nothing wrong).

 

[Fatniggo1488]

I love how this thread has permanently become 1-dumb-Ukie-bait post followed by 20 quotes of it for every page. Before the Keffals downtime, every highlight was breakdowns of the actual territory that's changed hands, recent videos from the front lines, analyses of the technology used by both sides, etc. I can't even remember the last drone or bodycam video I saw in this thread now.

Jannies should really return the thread to the former setup -- @mindlessobserver / @teriyakiburns etc. are banished back to posting their spam in A&N, and keep the thread focused on informative updates/analyses rather than endless sperging. Thread's a useless dumpster fire as it is right now. Here's some drone vids for a change.

Battle of Bakhmut -- Essentially all of the 2-story+ buildings in the city are rubble. Regardless of who takes it in the end, it will be impossible for any of the population to resettle. The meatgrinder continues with no clear winner, heavy losses by all.

Drones dropping grenades on AFU trenches and 2 disabled tanks. NW outside of Bakhmut.

Somewhat off-topicish, but the US is really going to be hurting if it doesn't start developing some of these smaller cheaper drones like what either side is using next time it has a conventional war.