War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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The Telegraph:

Britain is losing the will to stand up to Vladimir Putin​

France, Germany and the US are sending tanks and armoured vehicles to Kyiv. And the British? The cheerleader seems to have lost her voice

War has a dynamic of its own and the ability of an army to adapt quickly is at the heart of that dynamic. The First World War generals were lampooned for their lack of imagination, but it took time to transform a citizen army into an integrated all arms force that ultimately succeeded in the Hundred Days campaign of 1918. Both Ukraine and Russia face the same challenge now. Whoever can adapt and transform their military fastest and best will prevail.

For Vladimir Putin and General Sergey Surovikin, the challenge is to forge a new force capable of mounting another offensive in the spring, but they lack many of the necessary building blocks. Their conscripts have little motivation and lack low-level leadership. There is no tradition of a non-commissioned officer corps in the Soviet/Russian military system. Such a system is the backbone and powerhouse of most Western armies, certainly of the British Army.

As bad for Surovikin is the realisation that the corruption in the Russian military procurement process has spawned weapons of an inferior quality to those of Nato and the West. All this and more will translate into a cumbersome force which will once more rely on mass and dumb artillery. Stalin famously quipped that quantity has a quality all of its own, but in Ukraine this dictum is likely only to produce a very large number of dead Russian young men reluctantly masquerading as soldiers.

For Volodymyr Zelensky and General Valerii Zaluzhnyi the challenge to craft the means of mounting a decisive campaign is mirrored and the odds are in their favour, but the outcome is not a given. Yes, Ukrainians both in and out of uniform have a ferocious determination to win this war and preserve their chosen way of life and they are receiving much Western support to do so. But not enough.

Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has benefitted from Western training teams, notably from the UK, working with their military to begin a transformation process that has ramped up dramatically since the Russian invasion of February 24 last year. Hitherto Western support, cheerled by the British and largely enabled by the Americans, has provided Ukraine with the means not to lose this war.

Gifted modern short range anti-tank weapons, such as Javelin and NLAW, destroyed the initial Russian attack, the Starlink satellite system transformed Ukraine’s command and control and the Himars precision long-range artillery has wreaked havoc amongst the Russian logistic system – but only now is the West beginning to heed the Ukrainian pleas for an offensive capability.

The French are about to provide AMX-10 light tanks, the US are donating 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and the Germans are turning over much of their fleet of Marder armoured personnel carriers. And the British? The cheerleader seems to have lost her voice.

So, why is the UK not matching the US, French or German offers of modern land manoeuvre capability? The harsh reality is that we have little to give. The years of underfunding the British Army have come into stark focus. The CVR(T) series of light armoured vehicles are of 1970s design and have no place on a modern manoeuvre battlefield, nor do the protected patrol vehicles procured for the counter-insurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Our Challenger main battle tanks are in dire need of an upgrade as are our Warrior infantry fighting vehicles. However, the latter were deemed to be too expensive to upgrade, so the Warriors are being taken out of service. The Ajax medium tank does not work, and the Boxer armoured personnel carriers have not been delivered. Which brings the spotlight back to the Warrior vehicles. If we are about to prematurely retire them, would it not be better to gift them to the Ukrainians?

The British Army has been exercising in Poland for many years. We are experienced in moving armoured vehicles there. Trainers could familiarise Ukrainian infantry soldiers eager to learn. Let us at least allow Ukraine to get some value from these vehicles before we scrap them.

Delay risks defeat. Up to this point, we have helped prevent Ukraine losing the war against Putin. Now we must help them win it.

General The Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff

 
The French are about to provide AMX-10 light tanks, the US are donating 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and the Germans are turning over much of their fleet of Marder armoured personnel carriers. And the British? The cheerleader seems to have lost her voice.

So, why is the UK not matching the US, French or German offers of modern land manoeuvre capability? The harsh reality is that we have little to give. The years of underfunding the British Army have come into stark focus. The CVR(T) series of light armoured vehicles are of 1970s design and have no place on a modern manoeuvre battlefield, nor do the protected patrol vehicles procured for the counter-insurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.
So our 1970s CVR(T)s have no place on the modern battlefield because of their age, yet everything else he lists there like the Marder's and what not are all of a similar vintage. Most importantly so is the vast majority of what they're facing on the Russian side. Don't get me wrong I definitely agree with his point about giving Warriors to the Ukrainians rather than just scrapping them, but otherwise I find his arguments to be kinda disingenuous.

Also on the subject of the Chally 2, he's right they need an upgrade (which has already been announced), but even without it they still shit on T-72s and T-80s, which is good because:

Britain is looking to donate a squadron of them, mostly to challenge Germany's bullshit narrative that there's some NATO wide agreement to not give Ukraine modern tanks (there isn't one Germany are just fags), and to maybe spur the coalition of Leopard 2 users that Poland is putting together to donate.
 
Archive
UK Defense Ministry of Defense posts evidence "confirming" Russian Su-57 use in combat.
I'm pretty sure Russian channels have already claimed the Su-57 was active """over""" Ukraine, but this seems to be the first Western source confirming their use.

Russia finally sending in its best???

Its revisionist copium considering Russia started off with the objective of occupying Kiev with an eye to forcing capitulation. Assuming of course that armored drive there and the airdrop into Hostomel that got a bunch of special forces killed for no real gains were just a feint as opposed to a decapitation strike styled on Market Garden.
The irony to Vatnig cope is that if you take the claim of "Kiev was just a feint" at face value, it means that Russia basically just rewrote the book on "how not to fucking pull off a feint".
>wrack up casualties
>lose the element of surprise
>lose expensive heliborne assets & well-trained airborne infantry
>lose a bunch of vehicles, both armored combat vehicles & "soft" logistics/transport vehicles
>fail to pin any significant mobile enemy force
>"hahaha all part of the plan!"
 
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Archive
UK Defense Ministry of Defense posts evidence "confirming" Russian Su-57 use in combat.
I'm pretty sure Russian channels have already claimed the Su-57 was active """over""" Ukraine, but this seems to be the first Western source confirming their use.

Russia finally sending in its best???
FmAtogBXoAE3B2z.jpegFmAsyUrWYAUEwBs.jpegFmBRwENXkAAhpA3.jpegFmBRvM8XoAAwA8t.jpeg
:story:
 
Avoiding reduced export prospects? Ever since India noped the fuck out on the deal they've had basically zero export prospects anyway. Hell of the ~600 orders Sukhoi was expecting they've gotten 76 from Russia itself and 12 from Algeria (assuming Algeria doesn't drop out sometime in the minimum 5 fucking years they'll have to wait for production). Apparently Vietnam and maybe Iraq are also looking at orders so maybe another 24-36 planes, which means the entire order of Su-57s is propbably going to be less than the yearly production rate of the F-35 lel
 
Why would the U.S. Army buy and use diesel German engines when American engines at minimum are just as good and run on JP8.
Ukraine doesn't have the JP8 intrastructure. US turbines will run on anything, but you are upping your maintenance burden.

Avoiding reduced export prospects? Ever since India noped the fuck out on the deal they've had basically zero export prospects anyway. Hell of the ~600 orders Sukhoi was expecting they've gotten 76 from Russia itself and 12 from Algeria (assuming Algeria doesn't drop out sometime in the minimum 5 fucking years they'll have to wait for production). Apparently Vietnam and maybe Iraq are also looking at orders so maybe another 24-36 planes, which means the entire order of Su-57s is propbably going to be less than the yearly production rate of the F-35 lel
Let's be fair: often orders for a platform, especially advanced ones (expensive and international arms regulators up you ass), don't come until the platform is well off the edge. The US was producing over half of the F-16, and nearly all foreign orders, 20 years after it entered US service.

They lost a capital ship to a country with virtually no navy, imagine losing the airwar to a country with an airforce a tenth the size, while your new stealth fighter gets wrecked by MANPADs.
Russian Artillery doctrine has saved HIMARS from obscurity, can you imagine what a crashed Su57 would do for air defense sales?
 
ISW for today:
Archive
TL;DR:
>Russians continue to attempt to encircle Soledar, fighting is still ongoing in the town
>Lots of "Kiev says, Moscow says" about which settlements are under who's control
>Ukrainians continue the slow march towards Kreminna, fighting ongoing outside of Dibrova
>Russians reinforcing positions Kherson Oblast & Zaphorizhia Oblast
>Ukrainian partisans hitting Russian ground lines of communication in Luhansk Oblast

They lost a capital ship to a country with virtually no navy
Okay, to be fair to Russia, this is the 2020's not the 1940's.

Half the purpose/sales pitch of road-mobile AShMs and air-launched AShMs is so smaller countries can engage stronger naval powers. Basically, in the modern age you don't *need* a navy per-se to wreak havoc on the other guy's navy.

While I agree the sinking of the Muscova shows what a joke the Russian Navy is (or at least their Black Sea Fleet), the whole "they lost a ship to a country with no navy!" isn't really a fair point in the modern age.
 
New angles of the big bridge blast:


For sure, there's fuckloads of newly single Russian women, and an already tanking birthrate; the caveat being now Russian brides come with a conscription notice.... or a press-gang shows up after he lands in Moscow.
 
Okay, to be fair to Russia, this is the 2020's not the 1940's.

Half the purpose/sales pitch of road-mobile AShMs and air-launched AShMs is so smaller countries can engage stronger naval powers. Basically, in the modern age you don't *need* a navy per-se to wreak havoc on the other guy's navy.

While I agree the sinking of the Muscova shows what a joke the Russian Navy is (or at least their Black Sea Fleet), the whole "they lost a ship to a country with no navy!" isn't really a fair point in the modern age.
Yes but also no.

Russia having a ship damaged is pretty normal.
Having lost a capital ship, and their flag ship at that, is still a huge lolberg.

This means there a ton of failures:
Failure of fleet command to provide sufficient escorts
Failure of the admiral to position the ship/run evasive manuevers to make it so they couldn't get wrecked
Failure of pickets/spotting to detect the launches
Failure of CIWS to intercept
Failure of damage control to keep the ship afloat after impact.

If this was some coastal frigate, fine. But this was supposedly their primary black sea cns battlespace coridination asset, where you have your brightest minds, armed with the vaunted S400 and the best sensors the soviets could muster.
To add to this embarrassment, the Russian response was to blame it on an engine fire.

And I'd argue that wouldn't be QUITE as funny as it is without the full sequence of events:
Namely loss of a coastal supply vessel that definitely wasn't carrying loot back to Russia + loss of the only major surface combatant meant that any hopes for a naval landing are done, to the point where it seems more likely Ukraine could land a harrassment force on the kinburn spit to support a push out from Kherson than Russia being able to threaten Odessa.

and the loss of said warship, its threat value, and its sensors directly contributed to their attempted blockade of Ukraine unraveling. (Yes, the real unraveling was because the merchantmen were escorted by Turk vessels, but Turkey may not have wanted to risk their ships if there was a guided missile cruiser still operating.)



For sure, there's fuckloads of newly single Russian women, and an already tanking birthrate; the caveat being now Russian brides come with a conscription notice.... or a press-gang shows up after he lands in Moscow.
View attachment 4228731

Lifetime specials are getting weird.
 
For whatever reason the video won't upload. But the OP lists almost every pointy-stick drone video in the comments

Showtime (aka "The Big Badda-Boom", aka "Daddy Chagga-Chagga") Madyar narrates the discovery of a Russian drone-operator's nest, and the subsequent strike with their own drone.
 
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New angles of the big bridge blast:
View attachment 4228674

For sure, there's fuckloads of newly single Russian women, and an already tanking birthrate; the caveat being now Russian brides come with a conscription notice.... or a press-gang shows up after he lands in Moscow.
View attachment 4228731
Recently there was an interview by Gulagu.net with an ex-FSB officer who fled Russia and shed some light on how they operate, specifically in, uh "asian" regions such as Dagestan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Xb04bPnioo
The relevant part is the accusation that the supposed anti-terrorist units would kidnap men and use them to stage terrorist acts for them to prevent, like drugging them up and releasing them with an AK in the wild, or just shoot them up at the designated location. Among these methods was setting up bombs in the cars of unsuspecting would-be terrorists. Needless to say, Putin's war in Chechnya started due to similar gay ops.
What I'm saying is, I'm still not convinced it wasn't Russian glowies who blew up Crimean bridge.
 
Yes but also no.

Russia having a ship damaged is pretty normal.
Having lost a capital ship, and their flag ship at that, is still a huge lolberg.

This means there a ton of failures:
Failure of fleet command to provide sufficient escorts
Failure of the admiral to position the ship/run evasive manuevers to make it so they couldn't get wrecked
Failure of pickets/spotting to detect the launches
Failure of CIWS to intercept
Failure of damage control to keep the ship afloat after impact.

If this was some coastal frigate, fine. But this was supposedly their primary black sea cns battlespace coridination asset, where you have your brightest minds, armed with the vaunted S400 and the best sensors the soviets could muster.
To add to this embarrassment, the Russian response was to blame it on an engine fire.

And I'd argue that wouldn't be QUITE as funny as it is without the full sequence of events:
Namely loss of a coastal supply vessel that definitely wasn't carrying loot back to Russia + loss of the only major surface combatant meant that any hopes for a naval landing are done, to the point where it seems more likely Ukraine could land a harrassment force on the kinburn spit to support a push out from Kherson than Russia being able to threaten Odessa.

and the loss of said warship, its threat value, and its sensors directly contributed to their attempted blockade of Ukraine unraveling. (Yes, the real unraveling was because the merchantmen were escorted by Turk vessels, but Turkey may not have wanted to risk their ships if there was a guided missile cruiser still operating.)
Oh yeah, I totally agree its loss was embarrassing and agree the strategic implications of its loss are huge.

My point was that "to a country that has no navy" isn't inherently embarrassing in 2022 with the proliferation of shore and air-based AShMs.
 
What I'm saying is, I'm still not convinced it wasn't Russian glowies who blew up Crimean bridge.
The only reason I don't think it was a FSB glow op is it was successful even having seen the extreme levels of self-dick punching Russia has exhibited, I don't think Russia would compromise a necessary supply link. I literally cannot see any country doing something that self-sabotaging.

On the balance, if it was an FSB glow op, I could see it being instigated by the will of Borscht-and-Gutski.
To tl;dr this tinfoil conspergacy:
Surovikin knows trying to hold Kherson over winter with just a pontoon bridge is complete idiocy. Kremlin tells him to do it anyway. Crimea bridge blows up, "Oh no there is no way we can supply Kherson now we have to pull back, imagine what the hohols will do to our bridge over the dniper".
 
Obviously taking inspiration from Null, a Ukrainian commemorative-coin grift.
:tomgirl:


This one is interesting, if ugly as fuck; the Ukrainian government has also released it's own offical commemorative-coin: "Warrior of Azovstal"
Screenshot_20230110-075301.png
 
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Obviously taking inspiration from Null, a Ukrainian commemorative-coin grift.
:tomgirl:
View attachment 4232259

This one is interesting, if ugly as fuck; the Ukrainian government has also released it's own offical commemorative-coin: "Warrior of Azovstal"
View attachment 4232332
That is a real ugly design. They should have used the profile of a Ukr Marine or Azov Regiment solider. That song in your first video is pretty catchy though.
 
That is a real ugly design. They should have used the profile of a Ukr Marine or Azov Regiment solider. That song in your first video is pretty catchy though.
Agreed, but at least it's 100% silver, like a Kiwi Koin; and the lacquer color is a nice touch.

Evidently the Ukrainian state commemorative-coin came first, and now the floodgates of copycat .999% pure silver-clad proofs are opening.
 
Let's be fair: often orders for a platform, especially advanced ones (expensive and international arms regulators up you ass), don't come until the platform is well off the edge. The US was producing over half of the F-16, and nearly all foreign orders, 20 years after it entered US service.
That's a good point, but I'd counter that the problem for Russia is they don't have the orders to keep the production lines open that long. Right now they have orders to keep the lines open for another 6-8 years maybe and once they're down I'd question if Russia could ever get them going again. The other problem is who would buy them, especially in numbers enough to make it work, given the alleged costs (the Vietnam deal is rumored at a total of $2bil for just 12 aircraft).


On to some more immediately relevant news:
Sweden has confirmed they're sending Archer artillery to Ukraine:

Pakistan is sending 150+containers worth of 155mm ammo to Ukraine:

Belgium has a greed a deal to keep a pair of nuclear power plants going for another decade after a bit of maintenance (hmm fucking with people's gas supplies and forcing them to look into alternatives was a bad idea, who knew?)

Also I'll add this at the end since it's kinda related; in approx 1.5 hours from this post (12pm ET, 5pm UTC) Gonzalo Lira is finally gonna debate some pro Ukrainians, specifically Lazer Pig and Destiny, so you know if you wanna get your popcorn or beer ready, now's your chance.

 
Also I'll add this at the end since it's kinda related; in approx 1.5 hours from this post (12pm ET, 5pm UTC) Gonzalo Lira is finally gonna debate some pro Ukrainians, specifically Lazer Pig and Destiny, so you know if you wanna get your popcorn or beer ready, now's your chance.
Oh man, it's gonna be a wonderful shitshow. Dunno about Destiny, but Lazer Pig will decimate this moron, too bad Gonzalo is probably too damn stupid to realize when it inevitably happens.
Soooo looking forward to it.
 
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