Time for a new war assessment.
There will be no grand offensive by Ukraine this winter towards the Azov Coast. Russia decided to unleash human wave attacks on the Donbass front over the winter to try and break the Eastern defensive line. As consequence the troops that had been allocated to attack melitipol have been sent to Bakhmut instead.
This has been compounded by the fact that the Northern Hemisphere winter has been unseasonably mild. Both in Europe and North America. This has been a double edger sword, as western nations have been able to cover the energy shortfall of ceasing trade with Russia due to the warm winter temperatures. The downside is the temperature at meltipol and the Azov Coast has not dropped below freezing. Which means it is impossible for a mechanized offensive in the region.
In the interim However, NATO has essentially confirmed the "boil the frog" strategy with respect to the Ukraine War. While Ukraine cannot expect main battle tanks, AH-64 Apaches and ATACMS strategic missiles, they are being sent Patriot AA artillery and M2 Bradley IFVs. Which is a critical escalation because once Ukraine is trained on the Patriot Systems radar, the Iranian Drones are so much wasted scrap.
As for the Bradley's, that weapon system was designed from the ground up to kill Russians. Whether they are Russians in a tree line, Russians in a BMP, or Russians in a Tank. The entire meme of the Bradley IFV in western military circles has always been it was a weapon designed to fight a war that would never be fought. Except now it's about to get its chance.
So here is the assessment. Come February we will ring in the One Year Anniversary of the 2 week special military operation in the Donbass. Bakhmut will still be in Ukrainian hands. Worse for Russia increasingly sophisticated NATO weapons will be in Ukrainian hands. By April, the Kerch Straight bridge will be destroyed and in May Ukraine is going to begin the Crimea offensive.
Russia does not have the initiative.