Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Clownish]

Russian friendly fire accident.

Its incredible that the shockwave of a tank firing could KO someone like that.

 

[Koko Jambo]

@Ghostse

The 30mm would work well against modern Russian tanks. It would work in the same way the Javelin does. It would hit the tops of the turrets where the armor is the weakest. That's what it did in the first gulf war. It could also hit the side armor. In modern tanks the weakest armor is on the top sides and rear. The strongest armor is in the front. The 30mm would be really effective. Even with its low flying it could probably hit the tops of the turrets.

A bunch of roach drones would be more useful then the A10. Both will get dabbed on, now that the Russians have properly set up their BUK network but with the TB2 you won't lose at least a pilot who was trained for millions of bucks in Nevada for months. If I remember correctly the Ukies even excluded the A10 from their wish list so it's absolutely laughable to even think, that they will ever fly over the fields of Ukraine.

The only Western model the Ukraine Air Force will fly at some point in the future is the F-16 and that's probably also more a option for the post war Ukraine.

 

[Foltest]

BBC claim that according to US sources, around 30k wagner trash has either died or been injured in the war

snippet:

Over 30,000 mercenaries fighting for the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group have been killed or injured since the Ukraine war began, US officials say.
White House spokesman John Kirby said the group had suffered significant losses in recent weeks, with about 9,000 fighters killed in action.
Wagner has recruited heavily in Russian prisons, and Mr Kirby said most casualties were untrained convicts.
Despite the casualties, Wagner has made gains around the city of Bakhmut.
Some of the fiercest fighting of the war has taken place around the eastern city, with Wagner mercenaries heavily involved in Russian efforts to capture it.
Ukrainian troops say Wagner fighters had been sent into attacks in large numbers over open ground, and a Ukrainian army spokesperson said Moscow had failed to evacuate wounded and dead soldiers - leading to "places where their bodies are just piled up".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64685428

https://archive.ph/WpKpy

also, a scot (eeeewwww) have been sentenced to jail for 13 years as he was spying for Russia
snippet:

Smith, from Paisley, Scotland, claimed he was depressed, lonely and drinking up to seven pints a day when he started leaking embassy secrets in an effort to cause embarrassment.

Mr Justice Wall dismissed this during sentencing at the Old Bailey, saying he collected "a significant amount of material" to "damage British interests" and provided that information to a "hostile power".

"It was your job to ensure the embassy was secure and its staff safe. It was the most obvious breach of the trust placed in you," the judge said during the televised sentencing.

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-spy-working-in-british-embassy-in-berlin-jailed-for-more-than-13-years-12812917

https://archive.ph/62IOa

 

[Armin Tamzarian]

The next few weeks will definitely be interesting. For now the Russians have clearly the initiative up until they run into the next wall after taking Bakhmut. April/May will probably be the return of the convoy/warehouse smoker season before a theoretical Ukrainian Summer offensive should start. "should" because I somehow doubt, that Ukrainians can launch a new offensive similar to what happened in Kharkiv last year. The supply of Western MBTs is still not 100% clear and the Western bloc can barely supply the intensive use of ammo/shells by the UA.

My few takes (although nobody will probably agree): the hot phase of the war will end in half hearted armistice at the end of the year with both sides trying to regain their strength. Russia has clearly wasted too much experienced manpower and vehicles to launch any larger offensives. The Ukrainian army on the other hand is definetly insufficient equipped for a counter offensive and the Western military complex is not ready yet to satisfy their needs.

The West has wasted way too much time last year and it will now end up costly. You can't deny this when you look at the Leopard drama were only Germany, Portugal and Poland has so far actually signaled to supply them. They should have started with preparing the Western MBTs right after the Russian withdrawl from the Kiev frontline since it was already clear back then, that this war will take some years and Ukraine won't simply fall appart like the Afghani government.

 

[teriyakiburns]

For now the Russians have clearly the initiative up until they run into the next wall after taking Bakhmut.

I'm not seeing it. If they had the initiative, they would have either already rolled up Bakhmut, or would have established a defensive line just behind bakhmut while pushing another front. The fact that they're hyperfocused on taking the town, regardless of the cost, shows that they either don't have the initiative, or that they're completely unwilling to press whatever initiative they do have.

Armies that have the initiative don't sit behind static defenses and shell random villages. They take territory. Given neither side is taking more than inches right now, it's fair to say that the war has hit a stalemate for the moment.

 

[MG-34]

A bunch of roach drones would be more useful then the A10. Both will get dabbed on, now that the Russians have properly set up their BUK network but with the TB2 you won't lose at least a pilot who was trained for millions of bucks in Nevada for months. If I remember correctly the Ukies even excluded the A10 from their wish list so it's absolutely laughable to even think, that they will ever fly over the fields of Ukraine.

The only Western model the Ukraine Air Force will fly at some point in the future is the F-16 and that's probably also more a option for the post war Ukraine.

I could see the A-10 being used as a substitute for the Frogfoot. The A-10 has better situational awareness and survivability than the Frogfoot and can carry modern PGMs on its hard points and can operate off of ad-hoc runways. The thing is not the invincible flying tank laymen assume it is, but would be better CAS than taking Mi-24s and Mi-8s and barrage firing rockets wildly like both sides are doing. If I was the SECDEF I'd offer it as such. The Chair Force doesn't want the thing so this would help them terminate the program faster by sending out their spare airframes and parts. I'd assume it's easier to teach than most conventional fighter aircraft considering its simplicity.

 

[Ghostse]

But what this means?

Prostitution is illegal in many countries. But in some this means that a prostitute will go to jail, in some others only means that she cannot legalize money from this work. And in some others this only means she cannot pay social contribution and will not have state pension based on this activity.

So, Big Bald P should go to jail according to ruzzian law or just cannot sign his guys for pension insurance? I don't know anything of ruzzian law about tha

As I've had explain to me, I don't read commie and am barely able to read Shyster:
Russian law, in a hold over from the soviet days + worries about unpaid soldiers ditching their posts & funneling into Executive Outcome type shops then fucking around in Africa/Balkans, forbids Russian citizens from having anything to do with privatized War-for-pay. You can't run one, you can't serve in one, you can't even work for, any sort of PMC/mercenary outfit.

Pre-Ukraine, Wagner & others were getting around this by declaring themselves "security organizations" - no no we are just providing security consulting. This still ran afoul of the law, but enough that even if you weren't paying your bribes if the judge wasn't paid off you're probably fine.

To put it in simple terms, application of the law is class-based. If you're Putin's friend, or like with Prigozhin also a proxy, no law would stand in your way. There's literally no mechanism that could interfere, no checks and balances to speak of.

Oh no one is doubting that. But when it comes warcrimes time, you've got to settle accounts and it'll be hard to explain to outsiders how Wagner, an enterprise who's very existence is illegal under russian law, fits.

Its incredible that the shockwave of a tank firing could KO someone like that.

KO nothing, if he had been forward of the gun the shockwave can be lethal.

Blowing from a gun - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'm not seeing it. If they had the initiative, they would have either already rolled up Bakhmut, or would have established a defensive line just behind bakhmut while pushing another front. The fact that they're hyperfocused on taking the town, regardless of the cost, shows that they either don't have the initiative, or that they're completely unwilling to press whatever initiative they do have.

Armies that have the initiative don't sit behind static defenses and shell random villages. They take territory. Given neither side is taking more than inches right now, it's fair to say that the war has hit a stalemate for the moment.

I'd say Russia has the initiative currently, but that's like saying the homeless guy who found a nickel is the richest guy in the camp.

Wonkinating I'm hearing is Ukraine is digging in until march and maybe until summer, when their new toys arrive.

 

[Snekposter]

I'll be quite frank, 50 dead soldiers whether Russian or Ukrainian is no surprise.

Wagner committing a war crime would also be no surprise, but I'd like to know if they actually did.

This is a Slav on Slav war. The International Criminal Court is going to have its hand full for decades just investigating. Chances are everyone involved will be dead of something by the time they actually get around to filing charges. Milosevic was indicted in 1999, finally went to trial in 2002, and then after four years his heart gave out in a prison cell. The poison-chugger had his trial last from 2006 to 2013, and then his appeal lasted until 2017. And that was a relatively quick affair by international standards.

Imo, it's better to err on the side of caution when it comes to POWs. When the treaties were written Mercenary companies were alot more...mercenary then they are today.

And Wagner appears to be living up to that tradition considering all their convict recruits.

This resolution was mainly added to the Geneva convention to address Executive Outcomes types - that is, armed individuals working largely on the behalf of private entities to support coups & overthrows. Modern PMC bullshit was not considered.

Legally defined mercenaries like this are not considered lawful combatants, and thus are not afforded POW status and protections, but if captured are entitled to normal legal protections - you have to put them on trial, you can't just summarily execute them. But none of the other requirements regarding treatment or conditions apply.

PMCs are in a light grey area. The US historically has hidden its PMCs behind b), using the argument that PMCs like Blackwater are running logistics and security and thus not directly taking part in the hostilities; if they do engage in combat it is incidental to their support mission; even civilian medical units are allowed to carry light arms and defend themselves.
I'm not sure how Wagner is classed in Russian hierarchy, given they are directly engaging in combat and b) most certainly applies. If Russia has officially 'deputized' the Wagner soldiers it hires as part of their military, they'd be protected.

Mainly though, everyone's been performing a sort of 'gentlemen's agreement' when it comes to PMC personnel; as long as they are uniformed, they are to be treated as lawful combatants, but its also usually been Asymmetric situations. This is the first time the convention might get a real test.
edit: I mean it won't, there will be a back room deal worked out avoid having to hash through it, but its possible

The kicker there is the line about them not being nationals to a Party. In this case Wagner are nationals of Russia, and therefore technically not mercenaries.

The biggest thing a Stryker brings is speed. Son bitch is fast with really good acceleration, and really good vision, so if you've got a skilled crew on their toes they can probably out juke any trouble that they can see.

Its also big despite that, which means for people as... innovative as the Ukrainians are it will likely wind up doing a hell of a lot of things, few of them it was explicitly designed for.

The issue with the A-10 for that is:
You don't need a 30mm to waste a BMP and soup any mounted dismounts, a 20mm will it just fine. You'd be better served with a faster platform that can get in and get out - while the A-10 goes zoom, at 420 mph its very subsonic, and while that's only a couple extra minutes of flight time over a faster jet, when you've got a lock warning those minutes are killer.

The thing the A-10 brought to the battlefield in Afghanistan (and iraq to a lesser degree; lower altitude meant Apaches (if on station) were better) was loiter time. Unlike a JDAM F-16 which was one-and-done, the A-10 could hang around for a long time, dropping out of the sky to Brrt and then vanishing again. Haji was never sure if it was really gone or just waiting for more more targets. And 420 mph was faster than any helo. The loiter time doesn't matter in Ukraine currently - when flying for Ukraine you want to be in the air as short as possible.

While I don't buy the gay GenDyn "F-35 Is JuSt As GoOd At CaS!" propacope for a minute, ukraine is not currently an environment where the A-10 can fulfill its intended role.

You forgot one important thing about the A-10: it was designed for the expected high-attrition battlefields of Europe, and so by airplane standards its A. cheap, B. durable, and C. easily repairable. A isn't a major concern in this since Ukraine isn't paying (at least right now they aren't), but B and C certainly are considering you could wrap bailing wire and duct tape around a damaged wing spar and the plane would still be able to do its job just fine. Christ, you could probably just have Slav armorers literally hammer bent airframe members into something resembling proper specs and it would fly just fine. And considering the lack of PGM's on both sides its far better than any fast mover for CAS so long as it can land back at the airfield in something resembling working order. I'm not saying its unkillable or invincible for anything like that, but if Ukraine could make spare parts on their own for any plane in NATO inventory, it would the A-10.

 

[LeChampion1992]

View attachment 4566841

Russian friendly fire accident.

Its incredible that the shockwave of a tank firing could KO someone like that.

When you're at close range like that being in front of a tank cannon isn't a smart idea. Unfortunately these tank crews are probably some of Russia's barely put together scraps and bottom of the barrel soldiers poor parts of Russia in places like talin. Places in like Moscow or St Petersburg have something like a 1% male draftee rate so the homeless and crime is mainly being conscripted. But you go to places like Tuva the rate has been somewhere around 30% during the mobilization.

If you're a white Russian from Moscow who is a punk chances are you're not going to be on the front lines. But the Russian equivalent of Tyrone from the hood and paco the Gardner are being drafted into the war.

As I've had explain to me, I don't read commie and am barely able to read Shyster:
Russian law, in a hold over from the soviet days + worries about unpaid soldiers ditching their posts & funneling into Executive Outcome type shops then fucking around in Africa/Balkans, forbids Russian citizens from having anything to do with privatized War-for-pay. You can't run one, you can't serve in one, you can't even work for, any sort of PMC/mercenary outfit.

Pre-Ukraine, Wagner & others were getting around this by declaring themselves "security organizations" - no no we are just providing security consulting. This still ran afoul of the law, but enough that even if you weren't paying your bribes if the judge wasn't paid off you're probably fine.


Oh no one is doubting that. But when it comes warcrimes time, you've got to settle accounts and it'll be hard to explain to outsiders how Wagner, an enterprise who's very existence is illegal under russian law, fits.


KO nothing, if he had been forward of the gun the shockwave can be lethal.

Blowing from a gun - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I'd say Russia has the initiative currently, but that's like saying the homeless guy who found a nickel is the richest guy in the camp.

Wonkinating I'm hearing is Ukraine is digging in until march and maybe until summer, when their new toys arrive.

I would say neither side really has the intuitive at the moment the line around Bakhmut has more or less stalled out. The road is periodically hit by artillery and they do get cut off from time to time. Ukraines advantage is they still control half the roads in and out and have enough trucks and counter artillery battery systems to keep the Russians from making any full scale advantage.

The Russian victory in Mariupol was rather phyric as they spent anywhere from numbers as low as 3,000(Russian sources) to as high as 12,000+(Ukraine sources) of their best troops god killed. These were basically the really good quality troops. Basically because the Ukrainians spent 2-3 weeks turning every single block, rowhouse, and building they could find and turn it into a death trap. Guys who survived Chechnya even argued they should have skipped Mariupol and spent more men on Kyiv.

TL; Dr I would say if this rain season is short due to the warm winter then I suspect mud season to end around early March vs the April/May dates.

The next few weeks will definitely be interesting. For now the Russians have clearly the initiative up until they run into the next wall after taking Bakhmut. April/May will probably be the return of the convoy/warehouse smoker season before a theoretical Ukrainian Summer offensive should start. "should" because I somehow doubt, that Ukrainians can launch a new offensive similar to what happened in Kharkiv last year. The supply of Western MBTs is still not 100% clear and the Western bloc can barely supply the intensive use of ammo/shells by the UA.

My few takes (although nobody will probably agree): the hot phase of the war will end in half hearted armistice at the end of the year with both sides trying to regain their strength. Russia has clearly wasted too much experienced manpower and vehicles to launch any larger offensives. The Ukrainian army on the other hand is definetly insufficient equipped for a counter offensive and the Western military complex is not ready yet to satisfy their needs.

The West has wasted way too much time last year and it will now end up costly. You can't deny this when you look at the Leopard drama were only Germany, Portugal and Poland has so far actually signaled to supply them. They should have started with preparing the Western MBTs right after the Russian withdrawl from the Kiev frontline since it was already clear back then, that this war will take some years and Ukraine won't simply fall appart like the Afghani government.

So far NATO is basically replenishing the a small stock for SOE (think himars and tip of the spear units). For the Ukrainians they have managed to clear their airspace enough that they're able to kickstart some industry back again.

As for the Western MBT tanks they're giving those away last because they wanted to train the crews up to those systems first. During the war Ukraine was able to rotate around a quarter million men by now and send them to do 2-4 weeks of crack NATO training. Most of that training is how to deal with NATO equipment and repair it.

As for equipment this proxy war with Russia is draining much of NATOs, china's, north Korea's, and Russia's backstock of weapons. It's not so much that Ukraine is drying up NATO and NATO is going to lose nor is it cringe Russia is losing it's ammo to Nafo. It's that both sides are managing to use up their own and their respective allies aid faster then they can send it.

I expect Russia to try another offensive in March and Ukraine in May. I could especially see Ukraine start their offensive on like Victory day in Moscow as a way to humiliate Putin.

 

[DumbDude43]

Its incredible that the shockwave of a tank firing could KO someone like that.

cannon shells contain a lot of explosives. standing this close to the muzzle when the cannon fires is like standing right next to a hand grenade when it goes off - except the blast is much more powerful, but there is no shrapnel.
that guy probably had his eardrums blown out, which results in disorientation, loss of balance, and fainting

 

[No. 7 cat]

No way those chinese hobby drones could work after that given that all targeting was done with the gimbal cam since the payload was just a grenade with a 3D printed tail glued to it.

And you can also jam GPS.

I don't need any of that shit if I can put thousands of those in the sky for the price of the cheapest fighter out there. Good luck shooting at a thousand drones when all it takes is one to blow your SPAAG (and your legs) out.

Airburst SAMs would be more effective but again a system like this with this level of integration could easily make the swarm break away to minimize damage leaving most of the swarm ready to engage.

Why not? are they there illegally? how many were living in the area before the fall of the wall?

Putin is burying an entire generation, on a country with already fucked demographics.

Indeed. Azerbaijan swarmed Armenian defences in Ngorno Karabakh with obsolete pilotless AN-2s filled with explosives forcing the S-300s to fire allowing Baykar's products (or that mysterious but notorious ally that hit the mullah's weapon facilities flying from Azerbaijan) to do their job, which they did. Russia tried to do similar on an occasion or two in Ukraine, but with much less skill. Aliexpress drones with some workshop engineering for grenades or other light explosives can do that job of swarming if there is no big store of Commie aircraft or other simple pilotless designs such as hit Engels airbase.

Putin is essentially slaughtering a generation needed to power economic development, a generation already depleted by mass scale abortion, emigration and substance abuse.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

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Kharkiv Archive

Weather predictions for Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
Looks like "wet cold" conditions to continue in both the northern and southern sides of the front.

 

[Foltest]

Wet cold weather sounds like absoulte the fucking worse to fight in.
I wonder how many soliders on either sides are getting trenchfoot...

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Braincells lost

Aroged: A bit of geometry: German Foreign Minister invited Putin to turn his policy around "360 degrees"

%

www.aroged.com

The fact that European high offices are inhabited by people who are poorly versed not only in politics and economics, but even in elementary domestic issues, has long been no secret to the public. Here, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock distinguished herself today with an interesting statement as part of the dialogue during the Munich conference.


The host of the conference asked Burbock if Ukraine could feel safe if Vladimir Putin remained Russia’s leader. Thinking, Burbock replied, “Unless he changes his policy 360 degrees, no.”

Clip, couldn't find it on youtube: https://t.me/bbbreaking/148479
I can't with these people...

 

[Thomas Talus]

Wet cold weather sounds like absoulte the fucking worse to fight in.
I wonder how many soliders on either sides are getting trenchfoot...

Probably more of the ones who are using foot wraps.

 

[WhiteNight]

Braincells lost

Aroged: A bit of geometry: German Foreign Minister invited Putin to turn his policy around "360 degrees"

%

www.aroged.com

Clip, couldn't find it on youtube: https://t.me/bbbreaking/148479
I can't with these people...

I hear this mistake from both politicians and journalists. It's common enough that you can find grammar gurus complaining about it. Example:

1. A 180-degree change / a 360-degree change​

A circle has 360 degrees, so a 180 degree change (being half of 360 degrees) means you're now headed in the exact opposite direction. If you made a 360 degree change you would be heading in the exact same direction as when you started. If you head off in any direction between 90 degrees and 270 degrees you are being obtuse.

 

[draggs]

Neither side is anywhere close to cracking and anyone who thinks otherwise is coping and seething and slamming that homemade dilator into their axe wound hard as they can while they chug bathtub HRT

The performance of both sides since summer is not the performance of armies running low on men, equipment, or supplies, or morale. The Russians stabilized outside Kreminna and Svatove and back and forth attacks and counterattacks have been going on without pause for months. Neither side has been broken by the fighting there or at Bakhmut. Not gonna end any time soon

 

[WhiteNight]

The performance of both sides since summer is not the performance of armies running low on men, equipment, or supplies, or morale. The Russians stabilized outside Kreminna and Svatove and back and forth attacks and counterattacks have been going on without pause for months. Neither side has been broken by the fighting there or at Bakhmut. Not gonna end any time soon

It may not end soon but I wouldn't count on stability. Wars tend towards punctuated equilibrium: long periods where nothing changes, followed by major sudden shifts, such as when there is a big breakthrough. We've seen that happen with Kharkiv and Kherson, where months of nibbling at the edges became a huge gain within a few days or hours. I would not be surprised to see another sudden collapse somewhere soon.

Ukraine's army is getting stronger as its western patrons continue to feed it, while Russia's is getting weaker as they dig deeper into their antique stockpiles. So I have a guess as to which way the wind is blowing.

 

[LeChampion1992]

It may not end soon but I wouldn't count on stability. Wars tend towards punctuated equilibrium: long periods where nothing changes, followed by major sudden shifts, such as when there is a big breakthrough. We've seen that happen with Kharkiv and Kherson, where months of nibbling at the edges became a huge gain within a few days or hours. I would not be surprised to see another sudden collapse somewhere soon.

Ukraine's army is getting stronger as its western patrons continue to feed it, while Russia's is getting weaker as they dig deeper into their antique stockpiles. So I have a guess as to which way the wind is blowing.

It depends right now. The war in of itself is at an important crossroads. Russia can still win this war even though it's mud season if Russia wins Bakhmut and argues for a ceasefire it could leave the war with more territory. There is a chance that the second mobilization could go into full effect. This would really drag out a million+ men, gear and equipment and allow them to head to the front. Even if the Russian conscripts are given bad surplus WW2 rifles and old uniforms if you have a million of them that is a quality in of itself.

With the Ukrainian army they simply have to get more western equipment, do deferred maintenance on all the equipment they captured, and they will probably have an armored force double the size they had with last year's summer counter offensive.

Neither side is anywhere close to cracking and anyone who thinks otherwise is coping and seething and slamming that homemade dilator into their axe wound hard as they can while they chug bathtub HRT

The performance of both sides since summer is not the performance of armies running low on men, equipment, or supplies, or morale. The Russians stabilized outside Kreminna and Svatove and back and forth attacks and counterattacks have been going on without pause for months. Neither side has been broken by the fighting there or at Bakhmut. Not gonna end any time soon

If the winter was actually cold and the ground froze this year we would have seen some real big winter offensive from either Ukraine or Russia. Instead what we've seen is mud season has decided to last from November to April of this year assuming the rainy season is heavy as usual.

Because of the heavy mud you can only use the roads, This is why most of the heaviest fighting near Bakhmut is essentially trench combat in some places.

No side can essentially do any mass advances at the current moment. Now let's say when the ground more or less dries out around April/may then you will see the return of offensive operations. Ukraine will have western tech with a larger more trained force. The Russian will have mobilized probably a million men and we will get to see Abrams vs the T-72/T-90m tanks and we can finally settle which tank is better, Leopard 2, Abrams, or T-90m and prove the morons wrong.

Wet cold weather sounds like absoulte the fucking worse to fight in.
I wonder how many soliders on either sides are getting trenchfoot...

It's rather miserable conditions because in wet cold weather you don't have the ability to merely just bundle up and keep warm. You have to also keep yourself dry as well. From what I've noticed both sides do have enough basic winter clothing. Russians have to deal with snow 6-8months of the year. It's not like they are adverse to cold weather. even the Ukrainian army understands the importance of cold weather gear. Some of the Carpathian mountains have snow year round on the peaks in Ukraine.

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View attachment 4567772

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Kharkiv Archive
View attachment 4567824

Weather predictions for Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
Looks like "wet cold" conditions to continue in both the northern and southern sides of the front.

Mud season boys has been extended until March/April this year. Might give some time for both the Russians to regroup and rearm along with the Ukies.
Wagner is more or less probably running probing operations near Bakhmut now as their units are basically replacing conscripts and soldiers whose families are making a huge fuss in Russia right now.
Looking at early march weather the area near the Kherson front should be warm and dry. Highs in the 50s lows in the 30s. (Not great but paradise compared to the wet cold weather.) Meanwhile it's still going to be wet and cold near Kharkiv and Zaporhyzia.

 

[Snekposter]

We've currently got Ukraine-style weather where I am (Pacific Northwest says hello!) and I would not want to spend any time out in that. The upcoming week is already forecasted to be rain and snow in the 40's and my heart goes out to anyone on either side stuck in a trench in conditions like that, warm and dry clothing or no.