Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Just Some Other Guy]

Good equipment also doesn't mean shit without the doctrine to use it effectively. People acting like slavs are going to take a crash course on western tactics and come out like the next Guderians are full of shit.

 

[CarlosDanger]

Found this to be pretty accurate right now. With the death throes of NATO, you really need to be prepared if you haven't started already.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Well, it's official. Even NPC news are admitting it, same thing I just said. NATO has to either go all-in (resulting in mutual destruction), or suffer a loss in Ukraine and focus on Taiwan instead while they still can.


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html
https://archive.ph/JSTso

Both Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf have departed this mortal coil, and most of the 1991 US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marines have been out of the service for a decade or more, retired or joined their commanders. Anyone at the NY Times/WaPo thinking we can do a Desert Storm campaign against Russia right now is smoking something other than legal weed.

The "AMERICA FUCK YEAH " crowd, who has never served and never will, has no idea what goes into planning and executing something like Desert Storm.

With the fourth point, the Ukies are doing a good job for the Russians on that front, since they are showing themselves to be bunch of baby-killers who will murder civilians for not being sufficiently eager to die in a meat grinder. Meanwhile, Russia will let you trade in your Ukrainian passport for a Russian one, no questions asked.

Over a year old and still accurate.

Take green berets, They're main function is training of indigenous populations on how to conduct sabotage operations behind enemy lines. People have commented on Russia not wanting to take over the whole of Ukraine because of partisans. Well, who do you think is gonna train those partisans? Or help direct them to be as effective as they can be?

Well, this is a bit interesting. Russia doesn't really need a SF/Green Beret style force in the Ukraine since most speak Russian and are, whether they like it or not, part of Russia culturally. There are Russians who were born/raised in what is now the Ukraine who moved to Moscow/St Petersburg, the way someone from the Midwest moves to New York/LA to advance their career so that won't be a problem. It will be easier for a Russian special forces soldier to blend in than the other way around.

The Western Ukraine has gone full 1488 and promotes speaking Ukrainian and venerating Banderites. The problem, for the Ukraine, is that the more they move towards this new Ukrainian cultural identity they promote the more they become the "other" for Russia and Russians. They won't be able to blend in or move about unnoticed in Russia anymore, and promoting hatred of Russia/Russians only appeals to the most dysfunctional, self-hating Russians.

The promotion of the Third Reich is extremely offensive to most Russians, many who lost parents/grandparents in the Great Patriotic War, the foundational event of modern Russia, that they are more likely to be killed on the spot than to be taken seriously. I also see them taking everything up to the former Polish areas of the Ukraine, for this and other reasons, and they have come out and said outright they don't want that territory.

Found this to be pretty accurate right now. With the death throes of NATO, you really need to be prepared if you haven't started already.
View attachment 4683476

No cat to keep the mice away from your food stores smh

 

[CarlosDanger]

Both Colin Powell and Norman Schwarzkopf have departed this mortal coil, and most of the 1991 US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marines have been out of the service for a decade or more, retired or joined their commanders. Anyone at the NY Times/WaPo thinking we can do a Desert Storm campaign against Russia right now is smoking something other than legal weed.

The "AMERICA FUCK YEAH " crowd, who has never served and never will, has no idea what goes into planning and executing something like Desert Storm.

View attachment 4683328
Over a year old and still accurate.


Well, this is a bit interesting. Russia doesn't really need a SF/Green Beret style force in the Ukraine since most speak Russian and are, whether they like it or not, part of Russia culturally. There are Russians who were born/raised in what is now Ukraine who moved to Moscow/St Petersburg, the way someone from the Midwest moves to New York/LA to advance their career so that won't be a problem. It will be easier for a Russian special forces soldier to blend in than the other way around.

The Western Ukraine has gone full 1488 and promotes speaking Ukrainian and venerating Banderites. The problem, for the Ukraine, is that the more they move towards this new Ukrainian cultural identity they promote the more they become the "other" for Russia and Russians. They won't be able to blend in or move about unnoticed in Russia anymore, and promoting hatred of Russia/Russians only appeals to the most dysfunctional, self-hating Russians.

The promotion of the Third Reich is extremely offensive to most Russians, many who lost parents/grandparents in the Great Patriotic War, the foundational event of modern Russia, that they are moire likely to be killed on the spot than to be taken seriously. I also see them taking everything up to the former Polish areas of the Ukraine, for this and other reasons, and they have come out and said outright they don't want that territory.

No cat to keep the mice away from your food stores smh

As a cat person myself. I apologize.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

As a cat person myself. I apologize.
View attachment 4683534

Apology accepted!

 

[World Famous Quasi Payer]

According to the Ukraine Control Map which was posted in the other thread.


Ukraine has the following in Bakhmut proper.
- 3 brigades
- 1 regiment
- 3 battalions
- 1 special forces company

Spoiler: Units

- 3rd Spartan Brigade
- 93rd Mechanized Brigade
- 241st Territorial Defense Brigade
- Kastus Kalinouski Regiment
- Dzhokhar Dudayev Chechen Peacekeeping Battalion
- Sheikh Mansour Battalion
- Separate Special Purpose Battalion
- Omega Unit

A lot of these guys seem to be Chechens.

Or roughly a force with a peace time strength 24,000 men.

 

[Useful_Mistake]

U.S. hosts war games for Ukraine ahead of next phase of Russia conflict

The United States is hosting war planning exercises in Germany for Ukrainian military officers to help them think through upcoming battlefield decisions, officials said on Thursday, ahead of the next phase of the year-old conflict with Russia.

www.reuters.com

U.S. hosts war games for Ukraine ahead of next phase of Russia conflict | Reuters | Ghostarchive

ghostarchive.org

 

[MrJokerRager]

Done as a functioning country yes, but that just leaves a country-sized NATO-staffed military camp where it used to be. The entire point of the war was to prevent that from happening, so that's hardly a victory for Russia, either.

I realize that I am treading dangerously close to getting booted out of the thread in favor of the other camp, but this is an issue I cannot ignore because it spells decades of future tensions and paves the way for a WW III scenario. Thankfully, the EU is nowhere close to forcing Russia into a Treaty of Versailles 2.0, but the peace settlement with Ukraine must be damn good to prevent it from happening.

Which is why I think there isn't going to be one and we're looking at an indefinite extension of hostilities, freezing the conflict in a state of limbo as the Western coalition money and manpower start petering out, if they even do.

By the way, Ukraine is also supposed to have elections in March, 2024. You reckon Zelensky gives himself emergency powers and stays where he is or retains his seat via the totally true and honest democratic process?

As long as you don't go full retard over "vat niggers" and other bad faith arguments, I think you are fine.

Ukraine as far as the Western half goes, will keep that butthurt against Russia, for centuries after this.

Though it will be logical butthurt unlike the Poles who made a movie about "Wolyn" only a few years ago.

And then sucks the cock of a regime in Keef that worships Bandera.

One of the things Russia is doing correctly is annexation of territories.
So it keeps things more clear that Russia views those lands as important to its sphere of influence. And not agree to some retarded agreements like the UN sponsored West Bank settlements lunacy that leads to more ambiguity.

- be an American jurnalist
- come to Crimea to document the horrors of Putin's regime and win a Pulitzer prize
- Ask locals, "Do you side with Russia or with Ukraine?"
- Ten out of ten people you ask immediately answer "Russia"
- Poor things, they are so intimidated by the man-eating regime they dare not speak the truth
- Return home, publish report
- Ukraine government adds you to its hit list

There is something important that journalist mentioned.

Crimea is like probably similar to San Diego but larger.

It's basically fully militarized with the only way in being a bridge from the Ukrainian side.

Zelensky taking back Crimea without the aid of the US Marine Corps, is full blown wishful thinking.

Though historically conquests of Crimea needed massive forces like the one in the 1850s or World War 2.

 

[Vesperus]

View attachment 4683880

U.S. hosts war games for Ukraine ahead of next phase of Russia conflict

The United States is hosting war planning exercises in Germany for Ukrainian military officers to help them think through upcoming battlefield decisions, officials said on Thursday, ahead of the next phase of the year-old conflict with Russia.

www.reuters.com

U.S. hosts war games for Ukraine ahead of next phase of Russia conflict | Reuters | Ghostarchive

ghostarchive.org

IIRC, The US military got completely felted by the UK in wargames last year, because they are utterly incapable of thinking outside of their own doctrine.
It's possible this will do more damage to Ukraine's chances than an extra Wagner division.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Russians have more the "it's perpetually cold outside so we're all terminally online internet addicts" kind of weebery going on. Same as the Nords and Canadians.
They've got nothing on the Latinos. Goku is practically a Mexican folk hero now.

That funny given that Mexico in the soccer world, are seen as blowhards by the fellow Latinos.

 

[Doctor Professor Timon]

Well, everyone knows about the terrorist attack.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-soldiers-enter-russia-attack-school-bus-kill-children-now-russia-has-actually-said-it-we-regard-you-as-participants

But the problem is Russia has now said:
"Also, - today's events have shown who the US, NATO, and the EU really support. It's not the "freedom-loving people of Ukraine" who don't want to return to the "Muscovite sovok" They are just Nazi bastards, terrorist scum who attack civilians while waving a stinking zhovto-blakit rag. Let them now be exonerated in London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington.

They are your pacifiers, Messrs. Sunak, Macron, Scholz, and Biden! And our attitude toward you is now the same as toward them. Now your countries are participants in the terrorist acts of the Ukrainian regime, and you are direct accomplices of terrorists."

-Medvedev.


Wellp. That ain't good.

 

[Vesperus]

Well, everyone knows about the terrorist attack.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-soldiers-enter-russia-attack-school-bus-kill-children-now-russia-has-actually-said-it-we-regard-you-as-participants

But the problem is Russia has now said:
"Also, - today's events have shown who the US, NATO, and the EU really support. It's not the "freedom-loving people of Ukraine" who don't want to return to the "Muscovite sovok" They are just Nazi bastards, terrorist scum who attack civilians while waving a stinking zhovto-blakit rag. Let them now be exonerated in London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington.

They are your pacifiers, Messrs. Sunak, Macron, Scholz, and Biden! And our attitude toward you is now the same as toward them. Now your countries are participants in the terrorist acts of the Ukrainian regime, and you are direct accomplices of terrorists."

-Medvedev.


Wellp. That ain't good.

Another perfectly executed plan by our lords and masters, then.
I'll bet Putin will be defeated by Sunday.

FFS

 

[Feline Supremacist]

There is something important that journalist mentioned.

Crimea is like probably similar to San Diego but larger.

It's basically fully militarized with the only way in being a bridge from the Ukrainian side.

Zelensky taking back Crimea without the aid of the US Marine Corps, is full blown wishful thinking.

Though historically conquests of Crimea needed massive forces like the one in the 1850s or World War 2.

That lady look like she wanted to hit that guy with her bag? "Afraid???" She'd probably take out a jarhead or die trying.

I remember several years ago there was a disaster of some kind in China, I don't remember what or where, but people had to queue for water, and people were complaining to the NYT journo. Then he got to an old Chinese grandpa who literally laughed in his face. "Afraid? This is nothing, I fought against the Americans in Korea, now that was hard. Young people today are soft!"

Moral of this post is we Westerners are soft and forget other peoples are not.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Its been a while but we haven't seen Buhanka-Chan in this thread.

Also I haven't heard anything about Buhankas in months lol.



I am surprised no Z memes have been made out of those ballerina twins from Atomic Heart.

Though I found this on Know Your Meme's gallery for the twins.

 

[Romeo]

One of the things Russia is doing correctly is annexation of territories.
So it keeps things more clear that Russia views those lands as important to its sphere of influence. And not agree to some retarded agreements like the UN sponsored West Bank settlements lunacy that leads to more ambiguity.

So how does Russia get out of the mess? Just conquer everything east of the Dnieper, take Kiev and Odessa and just leave a rump state in the western half of Ukraine? The "ending" to this conflict is so open ended that I doubt anyone has a reasonable solution that would assuage any party.

I think Putin will most likely prefer to annex almost all of Ukraine and land that is not historically under Russia will be ceded to other countries. Having a proxy/rump/puppet state next to countries that are aligned with NATO can still bring unpredictable results and it's best in Russia and Putin's interests to have full direct control over them.

For example, even though President Lukashenko of Belarus is now in our eyes a Russian puppet since the pro-Western protests in 2020-2021, he wasn't always supportive of Russia, as the relationship between Russia and Belarus was always unpredictable, such as the Milk War, the Belarusian response to Euromaidan, and Belarusian authorities arresting Wagner PMCs. When Lukashenko falls, Russia will most likely attempt to annex Belarus.

Here are the two maps that will give more clarification to the annexation scenarios.



Oblasts are usually named after their cities.

Russia​

Russia is most likely to annex almost all the oblasts that are labelled in green. Russia will definitely take the city of Chernihiv (renamed to Chernigov from Ukrainian to Russian) because it was an important city back in the Kievan Rus and medieval Russia, so annexing Chernigiv will be a symbolic victory. Putin and Russia will definitely annex Kiev because taking the capital of the former Kievan Rus will give Russia the legitimacy that it desires to state that the Russian Federation is the only contemporary successor to the Kievan Rus, and thus Russia represents all Eastern Slavs because of it. I also think Kiev will become a Russian federal city due to its strong importance in the sense of Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Sevastopol. In addition, Russia will definitely try to annex all the seaside provinces of Ukraine, which will give them more control over the Black Sea.

Moldova​

With the pro-Western government of Moldova collapsing due to pro-Russian protests and unrest in the country, Putin can seize the moment of gaining a pro-Russian ally. In addition, Moldova has not joined NATO yet, so that may be a detriment to the country as most pro-West and pro-Ukrainians can say that Russia will attack Moldova after annexing Ukraine if Moldova decides to join NATO to represent pro-Russian Transnistrian interests.

To keep Moldova to stay in favorable terms with Russia, Putin can cede the western half of Odessa Oblast (with cities like Tatarbunary and Izmail renamed to Tatarbunar and Ismail/Smil respectively from Ukrainian to Romanian) and Chernivtsi Oblast (with Chernivtsi renamed to Cernăuți). The western half of Odessa Oblast will be such a benefit for Moldova as Moldova is a land-locked country and giving them access to the Black Sea with ports like Tatarbunar will definitely make one of the poorest countries in Europe wealthier.

Hungary​

Hungary is one of the pro-Russia EU allies within NATO thanks to Viktor Orban's sympathies with Russia and Putin and his obvious contrasts in policy-making with other leaders of EU countries. In fact, he's really a politician based on realpolitik. Russia giving Zakarpattia Oblast to Hungary under Carpathia and giving the historically Hungarian city of Unhhorod to Hungary as Ungvar will make Hungarians very pro-Russian, putting Hungary in Russia's sphere of influence and having that type of country inside of the EU and NATO will be very interesting.

Poland​

Putin giving 5 of the historically Polish provinces of Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk to Poland is a risky move, because Poland and Poles in general fucking despise Russia and Putin for obvious reasons. I doubt giving those provinces to Poland will decrease Russophobia Russomisia within the Polish populace. Poland is very pro-America and pro-NATO that they will put weapons and missile systems inside the provinces as a deterrent against Russia.

Maybe more Poles will like Russia because they are honoring their borders by giving them land that they took when they were the Russian Empire but the risks are too significant for Russia to give those provinces to Poland. Most likely, they will keep them unless Poland and Poles change their tones towards Russians.

Conclusion​

I think we live in a time where annexations and empires will be the next trend that many countries will follow. Annexation is such a good strategy in Russia if they are to win the invasion of Ukraine because they get the symbolic cities of the Kievan Rus, and cede land they don't need to make Russian allies.

I doubt anyone will rebel against the Russian government over what is formerly Ukraine because rebellions and protests these days don't fucking work. If China can suppress the Hong Kong protests without consequence and Assad can stay in power without losing any after a civil war, then any country can at this point. Authoritarianism and imperialism is growing popular due to weak-willed people and there will be countries that will cede to exist in the upcoming years.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

I think we live in a time where annexations and empires will be the next trend that many countries will follow. Annexation is such a good strategy in Russia if they are to win the invasion of Ukraine because they get the symbolic cities of the Kievan Rus, and cede land they don't need to make Russian allies.

I doubt anyone will rebel against the Russian government over what is formerly Ukraine because rebellions and protests these days don't fucking work. If China can suppress the Hong Kong rebellion without consequence and Assad stays in power after a civil war, then any country can at this point. Authoritarianism and imperialism is growing popular due to weak-willed people and there will be countries that will cede to exist in the upcoming years.

Realistically the best outcome for Russia is to take everything in green and make Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk a wasteland/buffer between Russia and NATO. The Moldova thing is still iffy but ceding land to Hungary seems like a good move.

Russia doesn't need to legitimize itself by taking Kiev, only the holhols pretend Kiev makes them the OG Rus while spewing hated at everything Rus.

 

[MrJokerRager]

I think Putin will most likely prefer to annex almost all of Ukraine and land that is not historically under Russia will be ceded to other countries. Having a proxy/rump/puppet state next to countries that are aligned with NATO can still bring unpredictable results and it's best in Russia and Putin's interests to have full direct control over them.

For example, even though President Lukashenko of Belarus is now in our eyes a Russian puppet since the pro-Western protests in 2020-2021, he wasn't always supportive of Russia, as the relationship between Russia and Belarus was always unpredictable, such as the Milk War, the Belarusian response to Euromaidan, and Belarusian authorities arresting Wagner PMCs. When Lukashenko falls, Russia will most likely attempt to annex Belarus.

Here are the two maps that will give more clarification to the annexation scenarios.

View attachment 4684345
View attachment 4684353
Oblasts are usually named after their cities.

Russia​

Russia is most likely to annex almost all the oblasts that are labelled in green. Russia will definitely take the city of Chernihiv (renamed to Chernigov from Ukrainian to Russian) because it was an important city back in the Kievan Rus and medieval Russia, so annexing Chernigiv will be a symbolic victory. Putin and Russia will definitely annex Kiev because taking the capital of the former Kievan Rus will give Russia the legitimacy that it desires to state that the Russian Federation is the only contemporary successor to the Kievan Rus, and thus Russia represents all Eastern Slavs because of it. I also think Kiev will become a Russian federal city due to its strong importance in the sense of Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Sevastopol.

Moldova​

With the pro-Western government of Moldova collapsing due to pro-Russian protests and unrest in the country, Putin can seize the moment of gaining a pro-Russian ally. In addition, Moldova has not joined NATO yet, so that may be a detriment to the country as most pro-West and pro-Ukrainians can say that Russia will attack Moldova after annexing Ukraine if Moldova decides to join NATO to represent pro-Russian Transnistrian interests.

To keep Moldova to stay in favorable terms with Russia, Putin can cede the western half of Odessa Oblast (with cities like Tatarbunary and Izmail renamed to Tatarbunar and Ismail/Smil respectively from Ukrainian to Romanian) and Chernivtsi Oblast (with Chernivtsi renamed to Cernăuți). The western half of Odessa Oblast will be such a benefit for Moldova as Moldova is a land-locked country and giving them access to the Black Sea with ports like Tatarbunar will definitely make one of the poorest countries in Europe wealthier.

Hungary​

Hungary is one of the pro-Russia EU allies within NATO thanks to Viktor Orban's sympathies with Russia and Putin and his obvious contrasts in policy-making with other leaders of EU countries. In fact, he's really a politician based on realpolitik. Russia giving Zakarpattia Oblast to Hungary under Carpathia and giving the historically Hungarian city of Unhhorod to Hungary as Ungvar will make Hungarians very pro-Russian, putting Hungary in Russia's sphere of influence and having that type of country inside of the EU and NATO will be very interesting.

Poland​

Putin giving 5 of the historically Polish provinces of Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk to Poland is a risky move, because Poland and Poles in general fucking despise Russia and Putin for obvious reasons. I doubt giving those provinces to Poland will decrease Russophobia Russomisia within the Polish populace. Poland is very pro-America and pro-NATO that they will put weapons and missile systems inside the provinces as a deterrent against Russia.

Maybe more Poles will like Russia because they are honoring their borders by giving them land that they took when they were the Russian Empire but the risks are too significant for Russia to give those provinces to Poland. Most likely, they will keep them unless Poland and Poles change their tones towards Russians.

Conclusion​

I think we live in a time where annexations and empires will be the next trend that many countries will follow. Annexation is such a good strategy in Russia if they are to win the invasion of Ukraine because they get the symbolic cities of the Kievan Rus, and cede land they don't need to make Russian allies.

I doubt anyone will rebel against the Russian government over what is formerly Ukraine because rebellions and protests these days don't fucking work. If China can suppress the Hong Kong protests without consequence and Assad can stay in power without losing any after a civil war, then any country can at this point. Authoritarianism and imperialism is growing popular due to weak-willed people and there will be countries that will cede to exist in the upcoming years.

That amount of territory is far too much for Russia to hold without it being mostly unstable.

I was expecting Odessa to the South and generally anything East of the Dnieper like how elections played out in Ukraine.

Since those are Russian friendly areas as well.

But outside of that, it will turn into a Vietnam style quagmire with the Western powers supplying weapons endlessly.

 

[Animewasamistake]

In the first video, it looks like they sent a musical band up to the roof? Guitar, some sort of brass, and ...bass?

Spoiler: Where have I seen that before?

View attachment 4678070

It takes a bit of explaining. Wagner is a part of the 'musicians' or the 'orchestra' a large collection of PMCs in Russia. Wagner is the most notable and by far the largest but some smaller groups like Patriot which is more about being like Alpha group or another i forget the name of which is all about logistics. Wagner play heavily into the music theme with their propaganda.

 

[Romeo]

That amount of territory is far too much for Russia to hold without it being mostly unstable.

But outside of that, it will turn into a Vietnam style quagmire with the Western powers supplying weapons endlessly.

I can't quote your post for some reason but my rationale for holding this much land is simply because Ukraine and Ukrainians as a nation and identity is pretty much dead at this point if Russia wins the war. Nobody is willing to risk their lives to rebel against the Russian occupation. Nobody in Kherson did. Nobody in most of Zaporizhzhia Oblast did. Nobody in Mariupol did. They only fought if the AFU forced them to fight. Besides, if Russia wins, more Ukrainians will flee the country, leaving the land desolate and empty. So now you have all this land west of the Dnieper where the people who can't flee just don't give a shit anymore and just want to go back to normalcy, which Russia can easily subjugate.

The only violent parts that Russia will have to encounter are the former historical Polish oblasts of Ukraine. They are the most pro-Banderite oblasts and that will certainly be a quagmire for Russia because NATO as you said will constantly supply weapons to rebels in these oblasts to fight the Russians. @Feline Supremacist 's solution is more better, because a rump state does eliminate the problem of Russia having to manage an unstable territory and at the same time is weak enough for the country not to threaten Russia. Plus, I have a gut that these rump state will be a pain in the ass for Poland, mainly because Banderites hate Poles and has participated in genocide against them in the past.

 

[Vesperus]

Everything red / east of the Dnipr is Russian. Everything else is Polish clay. That arse-end bit of Odessa is a bargaining chip for either Moldova or Tranistria, subject to treaty (there's not much there). Job done.

It worries me that we can come up with several different (but compatible) peace treaties in one page when NATO couldn't do that in a year.