Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[DumbDude43]

what exactly are the genuine conflicts of interest between the US and Russia?

hegemony over europe

 

[Snekposter]

hegemony over europe

Russia lost that game the minute Gorbachev announced the Red Army wasn't going to be enforcing Moscow's will on the Warsaw Pact members anymore. Gone, poof, and so too was communism once the boot of authority was no longer ensuring it remained intact.

 

[RodgerDodger]

You know, I just realized what those reminded me of:
View attachment 4705797
Now, I'm not saying its a bad mount design, but can Russia just stop copying the West for five minutes?

And some news:
View attachment 4705908
Now, I'm not saying shovels aren't lethal when used properly... but there has to be a better weapon for the job, right? Right?

What's especially telling is the Russia troops aren't prepared for it, which indicates a serious lack of training and pre-assault preparation work.

So they've run out of even Mosin's and WW1 muzzle loaders?

 

[AgendaPoster]

Russia lost that game the minute Gorbachev announced the Red Army wasn't going to be enforcing Moscow's will on the Warsaw Pact members anymore. Gone, poof, and so too was communism once the boot of authority was no longer ensuring it remained intact.

He had no choice, it was either let go of the periphery or plunge the planet into war. Since he was far smarter and more realistic than Putin, he let go.
Nobody really wanted to stay. Everyone that got their 50 yrs dose of closed society, hunger, endless apartment buildings all in an oppressive grey color, and general societal dysfunction wanted out out out. Even the tiniest of things like some dumb carcinogenic Kent cigarettes or some sweatshop Levi's blue jeans were small miracles. Even the Cipiripi Nutella imitation the Yugoslavs made was heaven.
But that's all good, because once you understand what it's like to live in... that, you know you will not get back to it.

 

[Snekposter]

He had no choice, it was either let go of the periphery or plunge the planet into war. Since he was far smarter and more realistic than Putin, he let go.
Nobody really wanted to stay. Everyone that got their 50 yrs dose of closed society, hunger, endless apartment buildings all in an oppressive grey color, and general societal dysfunction wanted out out out. Even the tiniest of things like some dumb carcinogenic Kent cigarettes or some sweatshop Levi's blue jeans were small miracles. Even the Cipiripi Nutella imitation the Yugoslavs made was heaven.
But that's all good, because once you understand what it's like to live in... that, you know you will not get back to it.

Oh, I'm well aware of why he did it. It was game over. People were tired of living under Moscow's boot, and Moscow just straight-up couldn't afford to keep their troops there to keep Eastern Europe in line. And somehow Putin thinks he can take over Ukraine when Russia is in an even worse state than it is during the Gorbachev era, and NATO is quite willing to see Russia's nose get bloodied so long as its Ukrainians who are doing the punching.

 

[GoPro]

The fact is, russia has been 100% invasion proof since the 1949 and even after this buck breaking clusterfuck of a war it inflicted on itself, it still will be even if it gets found that 99% of russia's on-paper nuke stockpiles were entirely fictional or had been scavenged for spare parts or just fucking rotted away, as that possible 1% of hypothetical remaining nukes is all it needs to ensure neither burgerland and friends nor china try anything even resembling a land invasion

It invading Ukraine in order to satisfy this imaginary security need is exactly as fucking retarded and fucking bullshit as Britain invading Australia with the realpolitik excuse of taking control of its fucking coal reserves in order to feed the fleet of ironclad steamships vital for Britain's defence against French or Prussian invasion
View attachment 4703980

Mentioning Russia's need for more territory toprotect its heartland from invasion plays into the theory of Russia's nukes being mostly duds. It would explain the invasion as a last ditch effort to secure western flank before the news of bad nukes gets out. I doubt it's actually the case.

sounds absolutely delusional
i see zero reason for why putin would want kadyrov gone

Don't forget how many people in Russia have fallen down stairs, out of windows, or committed suicide since this invasion began. Some of them were Putin's supposed allies. Kadyrov and Prigozhin have been antagonizing Shoigu for a couple of months now. Kadyrov commands substantial amount of soldiers who operate de-facto outside of Russian military command. If things get unstable, he could be dangerous. Not enough to usurp power, but just enough to pressure Moscow into getting more special treatment, be a peacekeeper in the Russian South, or tip scales in case of a power struggle in Moscow.
We won't know who is responsible for the poisoning (if there was one) any time soon if ever. It might just as well been done by Kadyrov's enemies from Chechenya, some group within Russian government (poisoning people is FSB's signature move), some fringe ideological faction within Russia, or foreign adversaries like Ukrainians. It's still odd that Kadyrov decided to go to Arab Emirates for medical care instead of using Russian doctors like Putin, Shoigu, and others do.

 

[Ghostse]

Im sure Russia has enough small arms to mobilize alot more people, but their pool of mechanized equipment is getting worse and smaller by the day, with no outside source to replenish it. Just look at Vuhlnedar, 130+ losses in a month in just that area with no gains.

Now you could argue that a lot of this Korean war surplus is just back-filling reserves as reserve equipment goes to the front. But its not just what they're digging out how they're digging it out. They aren't just using these things for battletaxis, they are bolting naval turrets on them.

Canada had to raid branch base museums for 40mm bofors in 2000 for thier new coastal defense vehicles. The US used a lot of Vietnam-era equipment in desert storm and the early days of Iraq, and there was a lot of "field expediency" happening with shipped systems during Vietnam.

But the fact they are reaching this far back is embarrassing, showing they can't keep up.

But yeah, its NATO that's totally finished because they're gifting 70's systems to Ukraine to fight the best of the Soviet's WWII arsensal.

Welcome to Russian engineering. Where the physics are made up and the doctrine doesn't matter.

New thread title?

All Putin had to do was pivot towards the West and position Russia as a friendly counterbalance against Chinese ambitions and we'd be besties, with the West investing massively in Russia to build it up instead of dumping money in China. But here we are...

The problem here was the West wanted Russia to de-mafia & de-oligarch and Russian elite was having none of it.
The serfs running the country? POSH! Might as well just hand it over to the Tartars.

 

[draggs]

NBC News reporting two hohol pilots* are currently in the US being "assessed" for F-16 training

F-16s are only a matter of time as has been obvious. The gib train has no brakes vatniggers

*No word on if one of the pilots is Samuyil Hydenskyy

 

[Clownish]

Ukraine has made a cartoon for children about Patron the Bomb-sniffing dog. English Subs.

It's devastating that Ukrainian children have to grow up dealing with the danger of unexploded bombs. But now that Ukraine is the most mined country in the world this is the reality for decades to come.

Don't touch, don't approach, call 101.

 

[DumbDude43]

He had no choice, it was either let go of the periphery or plunge the planet into war.

nonsense. nato didn't do shit when ussr rolled into hungary to crush the rebels, nor when they rolled into czechoslovakia, they werent gonna do anything if something like that happened again in 1990. everybody knew this, including the eastern bloc states themselves, so none of them would have dared make any kind of move away from moscow without gorbachovs approval.

if he had wanted, he could have kept the empire together for a while longer. he chose not to do it because at some level he understood that the communist experiment had turned out a failure. the economic and technological gap between east and west was undeniably gigantic at that point in time, and it was growing larger every year. the cold war arms race was becoming unsustainable for the ussr due to that gap. gorbachov realized that all possible ways forward were doomed to lead to defeat in one way or another:
>if they tried to stay competitive in the arms race, it would bankrupt them and slowly drive them into north korea tier poverty and misery
>if they gave up on the arms race, it would result in dissolution and loss of their imperial posessions

war was never really an option here, the choice was between peaceful dissolution now, or descent into poverty and look at (probably much less peaceful) dissolution a couple decades later anyway. gorbachov wisely (and selflessly, considering that it made him a very hated man in his homeland) chose immediate dissolution.

 

[RodgerDodger]

sounds absolutely delusional
i see zero reason for why putin would want kadyrov gone

Kadyrov is a useful idiot who is becoming less useful. He is seeking to position himself to be far more than Putin would ever allow him to be. Building his own cult of personality. I think the moron might actually think he has the potential to be Putin's succesor. His fate was always going to be at the bottom of a tall building. The only question is has he annoyed Vlad enough to reach that point. Or has he simply annoyed Shoigu enough, and the calculus is Putin won't care? It's clear from all group photos and videos that regardless of whatever disagreements the Russian Cabinet might have with each other, they all view Kadyrov as a vile clown.

 

[Fait Accompli]

Now you could argue that a lot of this Korean war surplus is just back-filling reserves as reserve equipment goes to the front. But its not just what they're digging out how they're digging it out. They aren't just using these things for battletaxis, they are bolting naval turrets on them.

Canada had to raid branch base museums for 40mm bofors in 2000 for thier new coastal defense vehicles. The US used a lot of Vietnam-era equipment in desert storm and the early days of Iraq, and there was a lot of "field expediency" happening with shipped systems during Vietnam.

But the fact they are reaching this far back is embarrassing, showing they can't keep up.

But yeah, its NATO that's totally finished because they're gifting 70's systems to Ukraine to fight the best of the Soviet's WWII arsensal.


New thread title?


The problem here was the West wanted Russia to de-mafia & de-oligarch and Russian elite was having none of it.
The serfs running the country? POSH! Might as well just hand it over to the Tartars.

Its much more nuanced than my analysis, but the fact that they are bringing out designs made 40 years ago in large numbers during the entirety of the war is a sign of itself
The fact that they are now starting to bring out systems that dates to 40 years old or more without any upgrades speaks volumes

Its anecdotal, i admit. We dont know for sure, but most signs point towards that Russia is bringing out more older equipment, which points to that they either are saving some equipment for emergencies, or that they simply dont have modern equipment enough to fill their units. At the same time, Ukraine is getting modern systems and NATO-standard training for tens of thousands of units in European countries. For everyone that isnt totally head-deep in propaganda, the trend is very clearly pointing towards Ukraine, not Russia. Ukraine has time on their side, Russia hasnt. Thats why a delaying action in Bakhmut would make sense

 

[Bunny Wigglesworth]

I see one: who will provide gas to Europe. But now it isn't a competition, it is just some ashes which will be cleaned in two next years.

If Russia can’t get the Ukies under heel within the next year or so, that would be the Africans & Sand Bandits in OPEC. And the Burgerboofer Mapleleaf Coalition to a lesser degree...I’d think the extra shipping costs would make ours less competitive. Europe is frantically constructing new LNG import facilities. I can’t see even countries that favor Russia being able to turn their backs on that windfall. I.E. Algeria.

There could be southern pipelines at some point, but that would take years & be vulnerable to Russian sabotage. I might not be remembering correctly but I recall there being a planned NG pipeline that would carry gas from Central Asia through Georgia to Europe, bypassing Russia. But Randy Horton Russia just happened to invade Georgia & it was scrapped. There was also a sketchy incident a couple of days prior to Russia’s invasion of Georgia where the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was blown up in East Turkey. No hard evidence Russia was behind it, and the PKK took credit, but it’s odd the PKK would hit a pipeline that Georgia relies on right before Russia‘s “SMO“ in 2008.

My theory (ignoring the Hersh article ghostwritten by Tom Clancy) is that Russia spiked the Nord Stream pipelines. The pipelines were moving nothing, and wouldn’t have for a long time. Why not send some pipe-pigs through them with charges to blow them, blame it on Joementia, then use it as a casus belli in the future to sabotage enemy pipelines or cut the Transatlantic Comm Cable? They been lurking around the TCC quite a bit the past few years.

https://archive.is/agg9e

https://archive.is/NRJMv

https://archive.is/iPK0y

https://archive.is/uPQF8

 

[Ghostse]

I think the fundamental difference is that the UK didn't try to cling to its superpower "status" after the empire fell save a few half hearted attempts to preserve atleast some of its overt sphere of influence and instead focused for better and for worse on trying to improve its own position in and of itself, as did Canada/Australia/New Zealand with reasonable success, as opposed to pissing away its potential and future in a futile attempt to "rival" the US

Maybe its because the UK already had a term as big swinging geopolitical hegemon dick for the previous almost two centuries which gave everyone involved the perspective that being top buck breaker was not all it was cracked up to be.

Maybe its because its loss of empire was tied in to its victory in WW2 which soothed any damaged nationalist ego and allowed it a narrative of it going out in a blaze of glory as opposed to simply sputtering out on its own or being shamefully defeated.

Or maybe there was just a general awareness that the gap between it and the US in terms of power was just too damn big and was growing bigger by the year, and pretending otherwise would just result in needless failure and humiliation for everyone involved.

Either way the result was bongland, boganland, canuckland, and kiwiland all just dusting themselves off and being content with what they had and what they could realistically do going forwards, and accordingly winding up as some of the richest, most developed, most advanced, and most powerful countries on the planet despite their relatively small populations.

The UK was already unspooling its Empire before WWII started. Hell, even before WWI they were looking at divesting some of the less important territories. They royally fucked their economy in 192...5 iirc trying to maintain the Gold Standard, and they just couldn't keep it up, and Little Brother America was taking over a lot of what the brits had been doing in regards to naval supremacy. Before Hitler started they were already trying to figure out how the fuck to spin off India without it being a complete shit show.

WWII just sort of cemented that reality and practically annihilated any drag to the process; you can't maintain moral superiority to Germany when you're also subjugating other peoples, and everyone was sick to death of war and bodies. Plus you had all the bills starting to come due, and it was a forgone conclusion.

There was pull factor as well, which was technology had shrunken the world. Airplanes, telephones, faster ships, more people, etc meant that you could project softpower a lot further than previous. You didn't need to control India's government to ensure your business interests there were secure.

Longer ranges afforded by oil meant that maintaining a network of Coaling stations wasn't vital for national security anymore.

 

[mindlessobserver]

So does anyone know wtf is up with Bakhmut right now? I thought Ukraine was pulling out, but apparently the city is still contested and there is talk of a counter attack somewhere?

 

[Jewthulhu]

Mentioning Russia's need for more territory toprotect its heartland from invasion plays into the theory of Russia's nukes being mostly duds. It would explain the invasion as a last ditch effort to secure western flank before the news of bad nukes gets out. I doubt it's actually the case.

Nah, Russia put most of its defense budget into its nukes rather than it's army. They've been doing that since the fall of the USSR when their army was weakened yet they still needed some sort of defense. I also think the "buffer state" argument is a weak one based on bad or outdated strategy, but I can't find most of the information I've seen regarding it so I guess take my opinion with a grain of salt.

 

[draggs]

So does anyone know wtf is up with Bakhmut right now? I thought Ukraine was pulling out, but apparently the city is still contested and there is talk of a counter attack somewhere?

Ukraine has been doing counterattacks in the south and reinforcing the north

There has not been any order to pull out from the city

 

[Snekposter]

So does anyone know wtf is up with Bakhmut right now? I thought Ukraine was pulling out, but apparently the city is still contested and there is talk of a counter attack somewhere?

Best guess is Ukraine appears to be holding on so long as defense is viable for obvious reasons of the Russians being autistically obsessed with taking it. MUH CULDRON is on hold until... uh.... Russia will encircle and cut off Bakhmut any day now!

 

[mindlessobserver]

Best guess is Ukraine appears to be holding on so long as defense is viable for obvious reasons of the Russians being autistically obsessed with taking it. MUH CULDRON is on hold until... uh.... Russia will encircle and cut off Bakhmut any day now!

So we are back to 2 more weeks again. Lovely. Team Z was convinced several days ago that it was all over for Bakhmut. This level of blue balling has to be excruciating for them.

 

[AgendaPoster]

When you have problems, you need solutions, and Russian citizens have plenty of that