I'm on team bogus. This is classified as top secret then it's not really a top secret document, the classification of restricted/secret/top secret have levels which correlate to the damage to the host nation that could occur from this information getting into the wrong hands. Nothing on this document screams top secret and "zomg we gun die". It seems more likely that Top Secret has been added to make the soyboy redditors believe it's super real.
The pentagon pulling the rug on this thing and trying to find the leaker seems more probable that they want it to seem like it was a legitimate leak, whereas if it was an official, top secret document that was leaked, they would say little, admit little, deny everything and say it was a forgery.
Correct me if Im wrong but I can't remember a time when a top secret document has leaked and the host nation has said "Oh yeah, that's ours, our bad". It's usually along the lines of denial or no comment.
Leaking it on social media works as it is full of pro-MIC arm chair analysts fighting the cyber-propaganda war, which can be just as damaging to the front lines as artillery. Doubly so when this information can help your side and the disinformation could hurt the other side. Britain did this a lot in WW2; sending out false information to the Germans to demoralise the troops.
When Bradley Manning leaked all that shit, and everything Julian Assange leaked. The only 'Top Secret' document in the leak is the one with the casualty numbers. Which could absolutely do damage to the host nation. They've been touting they've been killing 'hundreds of thousands' of Russians, when they've only killed MAYBE 16k - 17k, when the Ukraine has lost far more than that. This damages the nation politically, drives down support for the war and increases public agitation for calls to stop throwing money into a pit that is a failure.
I mean, they've been caught in a massive lie that they're winning and its only a matter of time before Russia surrenders and it turns out that isn't true. That's massively damaging to everything and everyone involved and could have a severe impact on the war effort. So I don't see how it wouldn't be Top Secret. You'd want to hide the real numbers as much as possible, because it breaks the illusion things are going well for the Ukrainians and they're going to take back everything.
Why would you release a document that conflicts with your own narrative and paints you as a liar and would only stir up agitation among the populace and allies? It makes no sense. If the numbers were reversed, you could have a case for it. But releasing the actual casualty numbers only proves that you're lying about how well everything is going and makes people question the value of continuing in a fruitless struggle that is only prolonging the inevitable.
Contradicting your biggest point of support for the war is not something you do. Not even with 'fake' documents. It doesn't seem like propaganda. Just doesn't make sense to release a document that paints NATO and the US as serial liars wasting tons of money on a pointless dickwaving contest.
Not to mention if Russia didn't know actual casualty numbers, and now they do know, the likelihood of them surrendering or you getting a deal is out and out impossible. And they're still not going to stop prepping for a counteroffensive. So it serves no purpose other than to boost enemy morale, sow dissent at home, weaken support for Ukraine and decrease morale for the Ukrainians.
The only thing I do see is possible if its an OP, is that the CIA released it in order to weaken support for the Ukrainian conflict so they can pour resources into countering China. Because China is chipping away at the dollar and the CIA does not like that. And if it is fake, its the most fucking retarded thing they could have done, because Russia has its own intelligence to compare to the documents and if they don't match up, well, they won't trust it.
