PMC "Wagner" continues to grind the Ukrainian army on Bakhmut. Zelensky sends more and more units into this meat grinder, into a destructive funnel that sucks in the best units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and mercenaries. Why is Zelensky so stubborn on Bakhmut? Why, since December 20, when I gave him a comical challenge from the artillery guns of the PMC Wagner, Zelensky was led like a boy and rested on Bakhmut? And our intimate dialogue has been going on for four months now. We both have fun, but the orgasm never came.
What is the secret of the Bakhmut meat grinder?
The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka, and Chasov Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called "Donbass ring" and form a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a quick victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of the Donbass.
The top leadership of Ukraine endlessly argues about the need to retain Bakhmut. This city is being rocked as a sacred symbol. In the morning, they rock the sacredness, in the evening they decide to retreat, and the next morning they throw in thousands of soldiers again, and so on ad infinitum.
The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200 thousand already sufficiently trained fighters, who have passed two or three months of training and coordination, are ready to perform combat tasks. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 thousand to go on the offensive in various directions.
Troops ready for a counteroffensive are located in the areas of concentration - they have enough of everything. In those tank wedges that they try to hammer into the defense of the Wagner PMC by the dozens every day, the APU loses from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment daily, and they do not experience any problems with it. And they have no limits on people, as they say at the front.
However, what was announced first on December 20, then on January 1, then on the end of January, then on February 24, then on April 3-5, and now on April 15-the offensive is postponed every time. The Ukrainian army is in the areas of concentration, beating the hoof and preparing to move forward. But, as they say, " a donkey that has stood in the shade will not work in the sun." If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not go on the offensive in the near future, they will gradually lose their combat potential. The war will come to a standstill, and those territories that are currently under the control of the Russian Federation may remain at the disposal of the Russian Federation for years.
Political aspects of Bakhmut
Politically, Bakhmut is of little interest to the Kiev regime, it is rather a destabilizing factor than a factor of holding its positions. Every cry on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hits Zelensky and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much harder than the benefits they get from holding the remnants of this city.
At the same time, the long battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial for the Russian troops, because they have already squeezed out a large part of the territory of Ukraine in 2022. If the special operation remains within these borders, plus or minus a couple of tens of kilometers, then this will solve many of the tasks of the SVO. Bakhmut gives the Russian army the opportunity to accumulate forces, occupy favorable defense lines, deal with internal problems, prepare the mobilized and fully armed to meet any number of counter-attacking afushniki.
Bakhmut is extremely profitable for us, we grind the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.
Any mid-level commander knows that if you have created tension for the enemy in some place and have enough reserves, then you need to make a maneuver and hit nearby-where the enemy is not ready and where it will break. The most logical step of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be a rebound from Bakhmut and sharp flank attacks to try to break through our defenses. However, from Chasova Yar every day there are columns of equipment, and every day, before reaching the front line, the AFU soldiers die by the hundreds, littering the" road of death " and the surrounding fields with thousands of corpses and hundreds of burnt-out armored vehicles, going to the slaughter.
Dramatic pause
As you know, the military operation on the part of Ukraine is tactically controlled by the Ukrainian military, and strategically-by the so-called Western coalition under the control of England and the United States. In early April, documents from the Pentagon were leaked. The documents themselves do not pose any strategic danger. They contain everything in a row from the world by thread - most of it from open sources. However, the drain was widely publicized and immediately followed by active statements from sources close to the Pentagon about the need to slow down the offensive announced on April 15 until the summer period. Why is the army ready for the offensive again delayed on its borders and why is the "last Nanai warning" on April 15, the last date of the Ukrainian offensive again postponed to the summer? After all, much more painful for Russia would be the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive with inevitable reputational losses before May 9, in the event of at least some minimal success of a few meters in the nominal direction. And why is the Ukrainian army again "giving odds"? It is the Western coalition that takes "dramatic pauses", it is this group that reschedules the AFU offensive every time.
Perhaps 21-year-old Jack Teixeira leaked the documents foolishly, perhaps he was used "in the dark", but if this leak did not exist, it probably would have been invented the next day. I emphasize that the documents themselves are not strategic and do not pose any threat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after their publication. This means that they cannot in any way add to the risks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of their offensive.
There are a huge number of conspiracy theories about the events of the 90s, and then in 2014-the Maidan in Ukraine and the transition of Crimea under the control of the Russian Federation. There are a huge number of different prophecies that tell about the meaning of these events. One thing is absolutely clear - the United States and the Anglo-Saxon group for a long time hatched a plan for the collapse of the USSR, as the main geopolitical competitor. In the late 80s and early 90s, they managed to impose a huge number of agents of influence on the ruling elite of the USSR, give new meanings that changed the ideology of the existence of this ruling elite, get the population hooked on the consumer needle and destroy the USSR. The collapse of the USSR was the most painful, most severe collapse of empires in the last hundreds of years, but it did not lead to the complete destruction of Russia and its division into small principalities. In the bowels of the American special services, a plan for implementing the next step towards the complete collapse of Russia has long matured, which fully corresponds to the current US doctrine.
The fragmentation of African states, the collapse of the former Warsaw Pact countries. The smaller the country – the easier it is to govern, and the more financially dependent it is – the more obedient it is.
The basis of modern US policy is financial neocolonialism. This is when even the most mineral-rich countries do not process the wealth of their mineral resources, but are fully integrated into the production and financial flows offered by "Western partners" – becoming American satellites, subcontractors and puppets. Therefore, the ultimate task of the United States in the Ukrainian confrontation is to launch powerful centrifugal impulses in Russia, weaken the power and national consciousness in society and force it to turn towards the West-as it was in the early 1990s. At the same time, of course, in order to exercise control over the political situation in the country, it is a priority to gain control over financial instruments within the system, over production facilities and over the subsoil.
Today, when the special operation began, and the Russian Federation failed to achieve the results that society expected, the United States has the opportunity to return to its original plan. The original plan, once again, was to break up the Soviet Union, then go around the perimeter of the country and turn its former allies away from Russia. In 30 years, we have almost succeeded with many former republics. We lost first full control, and then good neighborly relations.
"Deep State"
The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, huge territories, and climate specifics reliably protect the country's territory, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result, shamefully fled, turning the "road of victory" into the "road of death" on the way back.
Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to hit the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US doesn't need a quick war. They need a war that will convince the "deep state" and lead to its victory.
The "deep State" is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing authorities, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, they remain in their places after the elder one has fled. A typical example of the "deep state" is the opposition of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich, and so on. Dvorkovich, whom I have mentioned many times, who fled abroad, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this "deep state". The "deep State" endlessly leaks information and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for the sake of its own interests. It is easy to find an approach to the deep state, because it is a sponge inside the country, which, on the one hand, is red, on the other — black, on the third — white, and on the fourth — green. And from each side, having a connection to a part of the "deep state", you can get to its center. The Russian deep state is currently experiencing a serious crisis.
Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state urgently want to return to their normal life, old habits and comfort. The "Deep State" is tricky and quirky, the conversation of Joseph Prigozhin is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.
At meetings, they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions based on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at an exorbitant level, it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top management aimed at winning within the framework of the "legitimate bureaucracy". These are the internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Beglov, this is called a "bureaucratic sieve" - a sieve that you can get into, but it is impossible to get out of there.
Super Game
For the government and for society as a whole, today it is necessary to put some kind of fat dot in the SVO. The ideal option is to announce the end of the Free Trade Zone, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense we have really achieved them. We have ground up a huge number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and can report to ourselves that our tasks have been completed.
In theory, Russia has already gained this fat spot by destroying a large part of the active male population of Ukraine, by intimidating another part of it that has fled to Europe. Russia has cut off the Sea of Azov and a large chunk of the Black Sea, seized a fat chunk of Ukraine's territory, and created a land corridor to Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold in the territories that already exist. But there is a slyness – if earlier Ukraine was part of the former Russia, now it is an absolutely national-oriented state.
If before February 24, 2022, the European Union was greedy to give Ukraine tens of millions of dollars, now they are saving tens of billions for the war. Of course, some of these funds please the pockets of the ruling elite of Ukraine, which benefits from the conflict. Many of those who were forgotten yesterday, today got a new chance for self-realization and enrichment.
Ukraine needs a victory, the US needs a process
Although the Ukrainian leadership is getting richer, but due to the heavy losses of the population at the front and the general fatigue from the war, the political leadership needs a victory. For Russia, there is always a risk that the situation at the front may worsen after the start of a counteroffensive. Preserving the existing borders for February 24, 2023 is the exchange that the United States can offer the Russian leadership today, as a negotiating position. That's what a "dramatic pause"is for. If the government refuses, the APU will go on the offensive. In this situation, there may be different scenarios. One of them is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will rely on the defense of the Russian Federation, suffer serious losses, and then a colossal counteroffensive of Russian troops will begin to the borders of the DPR, or to the Dnieper, or even to Poland. But, given the current dynamics and problems, such a counteroffensive is, to put it mildly, not very likely. The second option is that the Ukrainian army will launch a counteroffensive and somewhere manage to break through the defense.
In this case, the army, which for years considered itself one of the best armies in the world, may first begin to feel decadent, and then the situation will degrade, as it already did after the defeatist wars of the early twentieth century –Finnish, Japanese-and the tragic events of 1917.
This can lead to global changes in Russian society. The people are already looking for those to blame for the fact that we are not the strongest army in the world, and in this situation they will look for "extreme" ones. And these" extreme "will certainly be representatives of the "deep state". That is, those people who today, without putting any effort into a military operation, are as far away from the theater of military operations as possible, are trying not to lose their capital, to live a normal life, and this is absolutely unacceptable for a people tired of war and losing the taste of victory.
Patriots ' desire for justice can have a severe impact on that very deep state, mired in luxury and bureaucracy.
At the same time, the supreme power of Russia is not in danger, since it is a symbol of national unity and resistance to the West, and this is the basis of today's existence and the main explanation for any problems for patriotic forces inside Russia.
The "deep state" will push the supreme power to make serious concessions. And, according to the existing tradition of the "deep state", with any changes, try to improve their situation by any means, including by betraying the interests of Russia. Their task is not the country and not the people, their task is their own position in society, their own comfort and their own capital.
Reach the bottom
If you fall down, if the weight of problems does not improve your position, but pulls you to the bottom, then there is an expression: "Reach the bottom, then push off and float up again." This is what Americans fear. They fear that excessive pressure on Russia and increased domestic problems may drag It down. And if Russia reaches the bottom, pushes off from it, throwing off the cargo of the "deep state", then it will float up like a huge sea monster, demolishing everything in its path, including the plans of the United States.
And there are a huge number of examples of this in world history. China in the mid-20th century, being one of the poorest countries in the world, under partial occupation, Germany after World War I, Japan after World War II, Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. All of them surfaced, pushing off from the bottom.
Radical national feelings will revive as after any military defeat, the Russian military industry will begin to work with tenfold effort. Economic efficiency will replace sluggish inefficient state capital. The state will get rid of bureaucracy, processes will become transparent, and Russia will step by step turn into a Bristling Military Monster, which the international community will have to more than reckon with, bend so that with each bend we can see their buttocks spread apart.
And if we do not prove that we are strong militarily, no one will take us into account and they will turn us around as they like. It is extremely unprofitable for America for Russia to reach the bottom and resurface. They need a slow-moving process in which they negotiate with the elites, with the "deep state", and then convince the country's top political leadership to make new concessions step by step.
If there are soft agreements, then, according to the American principle of gradual humiliation, first the Fridmans and Chubais will be returned to Russia, then the Khodorkovsky and Dvorkovichs. Then the elites will gradually liberalize, and the "deep state" will accept them out of a sense of self-preservation, transform and turn from black or red to blue or pink.
Of course, such a development of events is unprofitable for Ukraine and Vladimir Zelensky, they need to resist and fight. But if these processes take place quickly enough, within a year or two, then a liberalized, Americanized, West-facing "deep state" will force the Russian authorities to make concessions and, under various pretexts, return to Ukraine the territories that are currently under our control and that the West considers occupied.
These processes with the question "Why did we fight then?" will certainly trigger the mechanism of centrifugal forces in the regions. And the Americans will get their way. In this situation, the main plan of the United States will be implemented with, at first glance, a beautiful-looking, "soft, calm agreement".
Russia cannot accept any agreement, only a fair fight. And if we come out of this fight battered — there's nothing to worry about. Fortified areas of Russia do not allow you to penetrate into its depths. And the Russian people have never broken down and will never break down. Therefore - Only A Fair Fight! And the sooner it starts, the better.
To summarize. The Ukrainians are ready for an offensive. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for healing Russia in order for it to rally together and become the Strongest State is an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in which no handouts and negotiations will be possible.
And either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, accumulate muscles and tear up its rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of contractual arrangements is impossible for the future of Russia.
See you in Bakhmut.
t.me
️In Kupyansk direction, the attacks, launched the artillery of the 'Zapad' Group of Forces, have resulted in the neutralisation of the AFU units near Dvurechnaya, Sinkovka, Timkovka (Kharkov region), and Stelmakhovka (Lugansk People's Republic). In addition, the actions of 3 Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed near Novosyolovskoye and Kuzyomovka (Luhansk People's Republic) and Masyutovka (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were 35 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 motor vehicles and 1 D-20 howitzer.
@mod_russia_en
️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (Part II)
In total, 407 airplanes, 228 helicopters, 3,760 unmanned aerial vehicles, 415 air defence missile systems, 8,689 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,086 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 4,600 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 9,542 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.
