Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Apparently there is rampant war/disaster tourism going on in Kherson right now. Lots of foreigners showing up to take videos of themselves saving animals from floodwaters and such to grow their tiktoks. Pro-Ukraine milblogger is quite upset about it.

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1668661869471571968
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Nk5VW
Wherever there is tragedy, there are people who will exploit it for their own gain. This is no different to all the slebs who used to rush to every disaster zone and make a complete fuck-up of everything, just so they could seem compassionate and in touch to their audience.
 
Possibly some significant infighting amongst the MoD/Wagner/Kadyrovites.

Kadyrov's brother was apparently wounded or possibly killed in a missile strike in Prymors'k (west of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov). Kadyrovites are apparently very upset about this. Now MoD, through Roman Venevitin, the former commander of the 72nd in Bakhmut who had his nose broken and made to apologize on video by Wagner mercs for firing on them, has come out and accused Wagner of giving coordinates of Kadyrov's brother to Ukraine, leading to possibly hundreds of casualties and his wounding/death.

Nothing is confirmed and anyone or everyone could by lying, but is more evidence for dysfunction between these three groups.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668936832380223489
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/aE4jV
 
Wherever there is tragedy, there are people who will exploit it for their own gain. This is no different to all the slebs who used to rush to every disaster zone and make a complete fuck-up of everything, just so they could seem compassionate and in touch to their audience.
Reminds of this, somewhat related (because Chernobyl)
 

How to spin this one?

Putin lets slip that Russia has lost 54 tanks in a week

President claims Ukraine suffered ‘catastrophic’ losses during counter-offensive and teases idea of a second assault on Kyiv

Vladimir Putin has said his forces lost 54 tanks in under two weeks of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in a rare admission of battlefield casualties.

He refused to reveal more details but insisted the losses were much lower than Ukraine’s, claiming Kyiv had suffered “catastrophic” defeats, including swathes of Western-donated arms.

His comments at the Kremlin came as Russian sources reported that a British Storm Shadow missile had killed a top Russian general, the first to die for more than a year

Meanwhile on Tuesday, Ukraine showed reporters newly recaptured villages in the first independent verification of its gains. Reuters said the bodies of Russian soldiers had been left abandoned near destroyed armoured vehicles.
More at link.
 
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What's to spin? Russia has 10,000 tanks available? Maybe 15,000?
2023_Moscow_Victory_Day_Parade_18.jpg
 
What's to spin? Russia has 10,000 tanks available? Maybe 15,000?
That depends on what you mean by "available". The vast majority of the estimates you're referring to are "in storage", which could mean anything from "just need to pull off the tarp, run the engine a bit, and put it on a train" to "exists only on paper, was sold off by the garrison commander a decade ago". Estimates for battle-ready MBTs, pre-invasion, were more like 2,600-3,000. Oryx's count for tank losses since the start of the campaign is around 2,000.
 
It's a war of attrition.
It doesn't matter how many tanks Russia has if they don't have the crew to man them. Your "war of attrition" isn't viable, because Russia doesn't have the ability to train crews to replace a loss of - being generous and assuming half the knock-out crews survive - something like 80 people a week. Training a competent crew for a tank requires an investment of time and money, which is why it took almost a year for Ukraine to bring even its relatively small cadre up to speed. If you honestly believe that Russia can somehow magic up the crew necessary to bring even a fraction of those 15000 "available" tanks into threatre, you're hitting the real good stuff. Frankly, I think you should share.
 
How to spin this one?
I can answer this one. They're attempting to play up how much fighting has occurred. Also in the article:
Ukraine, according to Putin, has lost 160 tanks and 360 armoured vehicles, which he claimed accounts for 30 per cent of all weapon supplies to Ukraine by Western allies.

Or in other words, according to Putin the counteroffensive has already reached its climax. Without corroborating sources, it's hard to say whether this is an overestimate or underestimate of their own losses.
 
I can answer this one. They're attempting to play up how much fighting has occurred. Also in the article:


Or in other words, according to Putin the counteroffensive has already reached its climax. Without corroborating sources, it's hard to say whether this is an overestimate or underestimate of their own losses.
The most horrifying part is Putin might actually believe it. Not because he's insane but because all his subordinates are claiming every destroyed tractor is a Western MBT to save their own skins.
 
They're not soft. I can't speak for other nations, but ever since WW2 American combat wreckers have had armored cab sections protecting the crew and engine. We obviously don't uparmor the ones intended for recovery in safe zones, though.
Those are first line vehicles usually integrated with the unit they're supporting. In the British Army an Armored Regiment would have the maintenance workshop attached to them so they're a regimental asset. They'd have armored CRAAV's for recovery and specific warriors or 432's to transport the personal. However once you go further back in the maintenance chain it's all soft skin box bodies.

Albert Speer said the same thing that not enough parts were being manufactured, and he was in charge of the war economy. So I'll put a bit more stock in his take.

I don't want to derail the thread but Speer's takes should be taken with a huge grain of salt. The so called 'Armaments miracle' was more down to the earlier work of Fritz Todt and the later application of dodgey stats than to Speer. Todt had a habit of telling Hitler and Goering things they didn't want to hear, and giving the Army a realistic picture of the level of support the German economy could supply. Speer was much more of a 'go along to get along type'.

Wehrmacht maintenance policy was pretty well established, it was just commanders chose not to follow it. Additional spares production would have been at the expense of production of new vehicles. Spares packs take a lot of management and logistic resources to get them to where they're needed. Particularly when the front line is 2000 miles long.

Wehrmacht policy was for damaged vehicles to be recovered, and shipped by rail back to the factory for what was essentially remanufacture. On a strained logistics system this has the added benefit of utilizing empty rail wagons returning to the reich.

The Wehrmacht probably because they treated logistics and the ability to show any understanding of Germany's economic situation with contempt, just chose not to follow their own policies. Keeping parks of damaged vehicles close to the front lines where often they'd end up being captured.

Another example is how the Wehrmacht abused their recovery assets. For the Panther Germany finally manufactured enough recovery variants (about 400 of the 6000 panthers made). Yet units insisted on pushing what was essentially a strategic asset into the front line.

An exampled of how things should have worked was during the Battle of Arnhem. A company of Tiger II's were loaded onto trains in Hohne and shipped directly to Arnhem. A few broke down on the road march to the Bridge, two more were destroyed by the Para's 6 Pounders (the 6 pounders aren't shown in the Movie a Bridge too far but they caused carnage on Armor crossing the Bridge). They were in Arnhem for less than a week, helped win the battle. Then the entire company was shipped back to Hohne including the damaged and broken down vehicles.

That was text book use of the Tiger Tank. However if they'd tried that on the Eastern front some unit would have seized control of them and used them to destruction in some attritional battle they shouldn't have been fighting anyway.

Anyway if the Ukrainians are smart, then their focus with knocked out armor is to recover it and get it to a railhead then back across the border, where some Germans on a 32 hour work week in an air conditioned factory will get them fixed in a fraction of the time it would take the Ukrainians to demand spares, and repair near the front line.
 
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This isn't command and conquer.

Russia admits to losing 54 tanks in a single week, in exchange for a handful of bradleys and maybe one leopard. That isn't a sign of competent battlefield operations.
Not to mention the crew survival rate of the average lost Russian rate compared to the average lost leo/bradley
 
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