I am half-convinced Russia entered Ukraine not out of strength, but out of weakness; the 200k troops of the initial invasion was a ridiculously small number nowhere near enough to pacify much more than what they have now. I'm not quite sure exactly what precipitated the invasion, but it just never seemed planned out to the degree it should have been. Russia has certainly done a much better job setting up defensive positions in the here and now, and certainly did a much better job at seizing Ukraine in 2014. But, whatever. It seems to me to be solid evidence Russia does not expect or even want total victory.
I think the issues from Russia's initial invasion come from a combination of:
1. Expecting the Ukrainian army to just roll over like they did in Crimea 2014, and so the conflict would be ended very quickly by dictating terms to Kiev that would be favorable to Russia.
2. Trying to replicate the U.S.'s 2003 "Blitz to Baghdad" which, again, came with the assumption that the Ukrainian army would just roll over and that they could very quickly dictate the terms of peace to Kiev - and also assuming that they wouldn't inevitably wind up with the same problems that the US did in 2003. (You know the glowies were chomping at the bit at the prospect of creating an Iraq-style insurgency to use against the Russians in Ukraine).
Ultimately, I think Putin's goal aside from securing the Russian-speaking majority territories of Ukraine is to
1. Ensure Ukrainian military neutrality, and Ukrainian economic and political neutrality that is nonetheless favorable to Russia
2. Destroy the Cult of Bandera in Ukraine to ensure that what's left of Ukraine will not act as a hostile nation against Russia or Russian-speaking people anytime in the future. They seek to accomplish this by degrading, defeating, and humiliating the Urkainian armed forces in the field, while continuing targeted strikes against Western Ukraine's infrastructure and targeting military leaders associated with the Ukrainian far-right.
With D.C., London, and Brussels going all-in on "SLAVA UKRAINA!!!" and sending huge sums of money and material to Kiev, I believe a third goal has emerged
3. Draw in as much of the West's military and economic resources into the Ukrainian meatgrinder to the point that it starts to degrade those nations' own military capabilities and economic stability, while simultaneously going on a diplomatic offensive with the Chinese to court the global south against the current global political-economic regime, which more than a few of these countries have a bone to pick with. They'll point to the West's weaponization of trade and commerce against Russia, the Western countries' own hypocrisy with regards to military intervention, and the appearance of weakness stemming from the failure of the West's Ukrainian clients to make any kind of military headway with all the aid they've received, all to draw more and more countries and emerging economies onto the Russia-China side of things.
So yes, you're correct. Ultimately, Putin's goal isn't a total victory, but a true victory.
